The Big, Bold and Ugly

Since July of 2014 the big cap stocks have continued to make new highs as investors dump more and more money into the stock market. Overall bullishness on the stock market is now at extremely high levels which typically happen before a major stock market correction and sometimes start a full blown bear market.

While the average investor continues to become more and more bullish, the market breadth/health has been rapidly deteriorating. Unless you are market savvy you would not know how weak the market actually is and this always leads to strong losses and drawdowns for the uninformed investor.

What we know and most do not about this rising market, is that the big cap stocks in the SP500 index appear to be holding the overall market up and masking the weakness. So as investors become more bullish at these lofty levels putting more money into generic funds that push the SP500 higher, we see strong selling and unwinding of the more leveraged position like small cap stocks.

Over the past couple years the SP500 has formed a series of bullish corrections and running corrections. But the current formation is that of a bearish mega phone pattern and these typically point to lower prices.





I have always liked to follow the NYSE index because its a basket of 1900 stocks with 1500 of them being U.S companies. Its breadth/strength makes it a much better indicator of the market performance than the more narrow indexes with less stocks.

While this index remains in a bull market, it only looks as though it’s a few months away from a possible reversal and confirmation of a new bear market.




If you have ever read Stan Weinstein’s book then you know he followed GM share price closely. He believed that what GM did, the stock market would follow, to some extent. GM was/is an early leader of the US economy and stock prices in general.

The chart below paints a clear picture of the Stage 1 Accumulation in 2011- 2012, and also of the Stage 3 Distribution phase in 2013 – 2014. GM shares have traded down literally from the first week of the year and have now broken below critical support. Things could get interesting…




In short, I remain bullish on the stock market with both my short term and investing outlook but I am very cautious and have closed out several large positions recently. Cash is king and I plan to protect, rather than invest my nest egg when risk is higher than normal.

Short term trading where trades only last 3-10 days is the way to go at this stage of the game. Some recent winning ETF trades with my ETF newsletter have been in SCO, a quick bounce trade in UCO, REM, and our current trade as of last week EEM.

The majority of my investment capital is traded with my automated trading system. It trades the S&P500 index directly in my brokerage account catching these 3-10 day swings in the market saving me time while reducing my emotional attachment to the market.

Chris Vermeulen


Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. – Partnership Program

Chuck Hagel is Gone!

Last year, we noted in a story  from To The Point News Written by Caroline Glick


“Obama appointed outspoken critics of the US-Israel alliance to key positions in his national security team. First and foremost in this arena was his appointment of Chuck Hagel to serve as defense secretary.

“The culmination of this long process of delegitimizing Israel as a warmongering, ungrateful ally and its supporters as turncoats who are forcing the US to endanger itself for the benefit of the Jewish state was the administration’s hysterical campaign against Israel and its supporters in the lead-up to Saturday’s signing ceremony in Geneva. Everyone, from the White House to Kerry, accused Israel and its supporters of trying to force the US to fight an unnecessary war.”

Well, now Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel is gone and Iran and Western nations failed to reach a final nuclear deal by Monday’s deadline. As a consequence, “Israel has issued a stark, public warning to its allies with a clear argument: Current proposals guarantee the perpetuation of a crisis, backing Israel into a corner from which military force against Iran provides the only logical exit.”

Who wanted Chuck hagel in the first place?

Two Large Quakes Off Oregon Cpast

  1. 4.9 Off the coast of Oregon2014-11-23 04:50:49 UTC-08:0010.0 km
  2. 5.4 Off the coast of Oregon2014-11-23 03:01:25 UTC-08:0010.0 km


College Football Upsets Week 13

#8 Ole Mississippi 0, Arkansas 30

#23 Nebraska  24, #25 Minnesota 28

Locally #2 Oregon has its way with Colorado 44 to 10!!!

Outlook for Maryland Economy

The biggest surprise in the mid-term elections on November 3rd was the election of a Republican governor, real estate developer Larry Hogan. Daraius Irani, chief economist of Towson University’s Regional Economic Studies Institute, pointed out that the economy in Maryland is struggling. “Traditionally the state has relied on the public sector to fuel the economy, but belt-tightening by the federal government makes that a dubious proposition, Irani said. Instead the state has to find ways to improve the business climate.”

The first priority of the new governor is getting Maryland’s financial house in order. The state will face a $400 million deficit this year and the next two years, totaling $1.2 billion. The debt service will “… triple from two years ago — to $268 million. By 2019-2020, debt service will hit $559 million per year.” Raising property taxes is not an option. “Other big spending-growth areas also will be difficult, if not impossible, to cut.

Governor-elect Hogan has a big job ahead of him.

Two Oregon 2.0 Quakes

  1. 2.4 13km E of Coburg, Oregon2014-11-19 14:14:40 UTC-08:008.9 km
  2. 2.0 8km NNE of Sublimity, Oregon2014-11-19 08:58:20 UTC-08:0015.8 km

Keystone XL Pipeline: Enough Already!

From the Cato@Liberty

Posted: 18 Nov 2014 03:14 PM PST
Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger

Enough already!

Why is Congress, the President, or anyone else, still talking about the Keystone XL pipeline?

This project is so small in the grand scheme of anything it boggles the mind anyone outside of those directly involved in building and operating it gives it a second thought.

That a discussion of the pipeline is still consuming government resources some six years after it was originally proposed epitomizes the grand waste of time and money that characterizes the current Administration when it comes to anything it thinks causes dreaded global warming.

In this case, the fault lies squarely with President Obama.

He could have killed the pipeline years ago if he wanted. Or better yet, he could have approved the pipeline years ago and we would now be reaping the benefits of it in whatever form those benefits may have taken (choose your favorites from among the lists that likely includes jobs, tax revenues, lower gas prices, energy security, ally cooperation, etc.).

But he did neither.

His highest priority seems to be leaving a lasting legacy of “doing something” about climate change. Again, his own EPA should tell him that even if we cut our emissions to zero, today, the amount of warming that would be “prevented” by 2100 is a mere 0.14°C.

And the Keystone XL pipeline is one of his biggest tools to keep planetary warming alive, at least in the media. As long as it is in limbo, people keep talking about it, protestors keep protesting about it, supporters keep lobbying for it, newspapers keep writing about it, and the rest of us are caught up in the spectacle.

The State Department has already found that the environmental impacts and risks from the project are acceptably low. I have already pointed out (to Congress even) the climate impacts of the project are nil. And all the while the Keystone XL pipeline has been delayed, the Alberta tar sands oil production has increased and is in the process of finding other ways onto the global market. Even the Nebraska court case that is often cited by the President as a reason for delaying a decision on the pipeline is more of a procedural issue than a real threat to the pipeline.

At this point, the Keystone XL is just another construction project. In fact, that is all it ever was. If it didn’t require crossing the border with Canada (which required a “presidential permit”), we never would have heard a peep about it.

The USAToday appropriately and succinctly summed up the situation in a recent editorial:

Keystone is not an existential issue. It’s a 1,179-mile oil pipeline in a nation already crisscrossed by more than 150,000 miles of such pipelines. It’s long past time to say yes.

Agree completely. It high is time for the federal government to put this issue to rest and get down to issues actually deserving of this much attention (but don’t bet on it!).

Republicans Just Nailed Landrieu

Magnitude 2.3 Near La Pine

M 2.3 – 15km ENE of La Pine, Oregon

43.719°N 121.324°W

College Football Upsets Week 12

#1 Mississippi St 20, #5 Alabama 25
#6 Arizona St 27, Oregon State 34
#9 Auburn 7, #15 Georgia 34
#16 Nebraska 24, #20 Wisconsin 59
#17 LSU 0, Arkansas 17
#18 Notre Dame 40, Northwestern 43
#19 Clemson 6, #22 Georgia Tech 28
#21 Duke 16, Virginia Tech 17
#24 Texas A&M 27, Missouri 34

That’s a large number of upsets and to think Oregon State beat #6 Arizona State!!!

Copyright © 2007 Mover Mike. Design by Anthony Baggett.