Are the Markets About to Crash?

The following is an excerpt from Private Wealth Advisory...

The futures markets are off the lows from last week as traders are playing for the usual Monday rally.

However, the fact remains that the technical damage from last week’s breakdown has been SEVERE. Stocks even violated the “neckline” on the Head and Shoulders pattern they’ve carved out since early 2014.

SPX

In the very simplest of terms, stocks need to go almost vertical RIGHT NOW if the bull market started 2009 is not over.

I cannot stress this enough: stocks are in BIG trouble.

SPX1

 

NEW: Money Metals Issues 2016 Gold/Silver Forecast

Looking Ahead to 2016

NEW: Money Metals Issues 2016 Gold/Silver Forecast

By Clint Siegner, Money Metals Exchange

Looking Ahead to 2016

Forecasting today’s volatile, high-frequency machine driven and manipulated futures markets using fundamental analysis is futile, as a great many precious metals bulls will attest. To complicate matters, an obsession with Fed policy dominates all markets. Officials at the Federal Reserve are often less than forthcoming and are just as bumbling as the Soviet bureaucrats when it comes to centrally planning our economy.

Nevertheless, beneath all of the artificial influences and all of the leveraged paper, the gears of the physical market for gold and silver still turn. We can be sure prices will reflect actual supply and demand for physical metals at some point, even if we do not know when. With that in mind, here is a look ahead to 2016…

Supply Destruction

Silver production peaked in 2014, while gold production is expected to peak in 2015. Falling prices make an increasing number of mining projects uneconomic. Lower fuel costs are helping, but the average all-in cost of production for silver is estimated at around $17/oz and for gold at around $1,150/oz.

Today precious metals sell for well below than their all-in production cost. Primary producers of gold and silver will deliver less to market in 2016 given that a great many miners currently take a loss on every ounce they sell.

But there is another factor likely to decimate supply in 2016. Base metal prices, including for copper, fell dramatically this year, and the outlook is not too bright for the year ahead. The Chinese economy, the world’s largest market for commodities, is slowing. Brazil is in real trouble and economists are worrying more about the possibility of recession around the world.

Looking Ahead to 2016

Slumping demand for base metals will impact supply of gold and silver because huge quantities of these precious metals are produced as a byproduct of mining for base metals such as copper and zinc. The reorganization of Anglo-American PLC, one of the world’s largest mining conglomerates, earlier this month highlights just how difficult the current environment is for producers – regardless of which metal they are mining.

Gold and silver prices have been in decline since 2011, but it is only during the past year that average prices will finish well below even the most conservative estimates of production costs. The recent carnage in base metals will add significantly to constraints on precious metals supply in the months ahead.

Physical Demand Rising

Investment demand for physical bullion is perhaps the biggest story in precious metals for 2015. Mints and refiners spent much of the 2nd half of the year unable to keep up. Investors had to contend with higher premiums and delivery delays, finally getting some relief now as the year draws to a close.

Only time will tell if 2016 can top this year’s record. We look set to enter the New Year in much the same way we entered 2015 – with steady, but far from overwhelming buying activity for fabricated coins, rounds, and bars. Investors loaded up in recent months and now await the next catalyst.

Looking Ahead to 2016

It may be price action. Lower spot prices over the past 4 years have been a big driver of demand. And prices moving consistently higher will also inspire demand from newcomers (as we saw during the last bull cycle between 2009 – 2011). Only flat or range-bound prices typically lead to investor apathy.

As always, geopolitical events will play a big part in whether or not metals benefit from safe-have buying. In 2016, investors will be watching the ongoing saga surrounding Greece and other hopelessly indebted European nations. The U.S. is at odds with Russia in the Middle East and in Ukraine.

And recent tremors in high-yield debt markets may be advance warning that extraordinary leverage is about to rock financial markets once again. These stories, and others no one can predict, have potential to generate a flight to safety in the coming year.

Industrial demand for gold and silver may turn out to be tepid for 2016. This is less of a factor in gold markets than for silver, where manufacturers consume a good portion of what is produced annually. As mentioned above, some economists worry about the possibility of recession in the coming year. Any slump will weigh on demand for items such as jewelry and other goods. However, a lot of industrial demand comes from high-growth sectors which have proven resilient during past recessions. Electronic, solar, and healthcare related applications for silver come to mind.

Some 2016 Wildcards

Delivery defaults are possible in the futures markets. The explosion of leverage in COMEX gold futures bears watching in 2016. The number of registered bars available for delivery in exchange vaults relative to the number of paper ounces being traded shrunk dramatically to record lows in recent weeks. It’s a trend that simply cannot go on very much longer – not at the current pace of decline.

Looking Ahead to 2016

Exchange participants may convert more gold stocks from “eligible” to the “registered” category. That’s possible, though there is good reason to wonder how much physical metal the holders want to part with at current prices. The precipitous drop in registered stocks may well be signaling they are more than a little reluctant to part with it.

If holders of silver and gold futures contracts start standing for actual delivery of more metal than the COMEX has available to deliver, or should traders even begin to seriously entertain that possibility, we’ll see some fireworks.

Leading Republican candidates are making noises about sound money. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Ben Carson all have questioned the wisdom of Fed policy. Republicans everywhere are critical of federal debt and deficits and have been for decades now. Given the Party’s atrocious record of turning the talk into actual policy, we should remain skeptical that any elected Republican leader will actually achieve reform.

But there can be no doubt that the sound money issue is gaining traction. We can’t rule out someone in the crowded field of candidates tapping into the popular outrage over out-of-control borrowing and spending. Should ideas like reinstituting gold backing for the dollar gain serious momentum in the campaign, the metals markets could perk up.

 

seigner

Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 “Dealer of the Year” in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, Siegner puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals’ brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.

College Football Bowls

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL

Arizona 45, New Mexico 37 – No  upset

ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL

BYU  and #22 Utah

RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL

Applachian State vs Ohio – Applachian State favored

AUTONATION CURE BOWL

San Jose State vs Georgia State  – San Jose State favored by 1

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Arkansas State vs Lousiana Tech – Lousiana Tech favored by 1 1/2

 

Top 5 Senior Friendly Cities in USA

Senior Friendly Cities

Senior Friendly Cities

Retirement is an inevitable phase of life; one that requires decisions to be made in advance. Senior citizens look forward to spending this time in an enjoyable yet affordable location. Senior friendly cities should not only provide citizens with high quality of life but should also not put a strain on the budget. Here is a list of top 5 senior friendly cities to live in

1.Minneapolis – Minnesota

This city is ideal for citizens that are looking for health care facilities and safe environment. The city offers an excellent transportation system with low crime rates and a stable economy that offers ample job opportunities for senior citizens.

With a wide range of music and historic entertainment forums, this city provides an extremely gratifying social life to the citizens. Moreover, it offers several spiritual places that allow citizens to offer their religious prayers in sacred places.

2.Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

With highly efficient transportation system and low crime rates, this city is suitable for citizens that are looking for security and good housing faculties. The economy of the city is also stable and study reveals that it enjoys extremely low levels of unemployment rates and offers high quality health care facilities.

The city is also known as the hub of entertainment and therefore is suitable for citizens who are looking forward at spending an enjoyable yet affordable time in the old age.

3.Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH

Senior citizens who are looking forward to re-training or gaining further education would find this city full of opportunities as it offers more than hundred education institutes. Moreover, the city has a rich cultural heritage that allows senior citizens to visit music and historic venues and theatres that provide high quality entertainment.

The healthcare facilities within the city are of extremely high quality whereas the transportation system is also quite efficient. The city has an extremely alluring social life for citizens who want to engage with peers and friends and to visit various locations across the city. The crime rate within the city is also considerably low.

4.Provo-Orem, Utah

The city offers a healthy lifestyle to the citizens who want to age comfortably. The city offers high levels of security and safety while also provides the citizens with the ability to embark on new careers or start a business.

5.San Francisco, California

This city is ranked considerably high in the health and longevity continuum whereas the environment of the city is ranked as the best across the country and thus is ideal for citizens who want to enjoy extremely pleasant weather conditions around the year.

Apart from these factors, the city has one of the best transportation systems across the world and offers an extremely pleasing social life.  Moreover, the crime rate within the city is also not very high.

Author Bio
Andy is a keen and passionate blogger and he’s been doing it for almost five years now. His favorite topics include senior issues and healthcare. If Andy is not writing, his time is being consumed by distributing Patient Handling items and other merchandises regarding mobility.

Oregon Earthquakes

Oregon Earthquakes: in the last 30 days the northern corner of Nevada near Lakeview has experienced 24 earthquakes, the biggest was on 12/6 with a magnitude of 4.1.

Off the coast of Oregon there have been four with the two biggest on 12/7 measuring 3.6.

Book Review: Societe By Alexander Helas

41-4+Pra6AL

Societe, I couldn’t put the book down. I tried everything, including shaking my hands in the air as if I was drying my hands. The author has a way with words, in fact not only did I keep the dictionary c lose by always, but the author invents new uses for words.

This is “a novel portraying free will as mankind’s bravest art.” The author Alexander Helas says “…we are the product of our own thoughts, our own ideas, our own dreamed of reveries.”

At first I tried to get into the book by starting with the prologue. I put the book down. I picked it back up and shipped the prologue and it changed me forever. There are some beautiful thoughts and new uses of words.

New uses of words:

  • covets of a stormy frontier…
  • carousing intimacy…
  • appraised him with careful surprise…
  • a cocktail of lucid sonder…
  • a cascade of semblances…
  • and siphoned streets
  • divagated on the essence of flight
  • an unwanted paintbrush on a perfect canvas
  • let
  • us revel in deliquescence…
  • Like a lemniscate, Matty!
  • He suspired…
  • Heat that was callous and unconcerned.
  • Emaciated his defenses

 

When it comes to art “…we instinctively choose what we’d do if we had the ability.”

“You create enemies for standing up for what you believe in.”

Awareness likes to cradle unstable solace

She bit her lip, like there was a beast scratching the walls of her skull.

When I erase a word with a pencil, where does it go?

I could go on, but Helas is good at reinventing new uses for words and making announcements that do or don’t make sense.

Another thing I don’t understand. If you are a purist who hates adverbs, you will hate this book. I took to circling the “lys” on each page.  On page 74 in six lines, I counted six adverbs. On pages 90-91 there are eleven adverbs. Then you will get to parts of the book where page after page contains no adverbs. It is almost as if the book was written by two people.

Sometimes, also I marvel at the writing other places I don’t know what he is trying to say.  What does “…an unwanted paintbrush on a perfect canvas…” mean. Is a paint brush glued to the canvas and why?

I wanted to read the book for the author’s take on free will and because I live in Mexico and the author is a blood relative of a great Mexican writer, Juan Rulfo.  I will reread the book again for the beauty of the language.

College Football Upsets Week 14

#4 Iowa 13, #5 Michigan State 16

#12 Baylor 17, Texas 23

Top 5 Best Venues to Organize a Corporate Party in Sydney

e33a51ed99584645152869618e4db28baf523caf

Australia is a country that everyone should visit at least once in their lifetime. Given that the country is mainly known for its year round sunshine, breathtaking landscapes, and exotic yet dangerous animals; Australia is also home to some of the most innovative companies and industries on the planet, the central hub for which; is none other than Sydney’s central business district.

A thriving economy means luxury for those who can afford it, and here, we are going to share some of the best venues befitting the hosting of high profile corporate events. Whether you wish to host a cocktail party, a seminar, team building workshops, corporate dinners, conferences or events, these venues are perhaps the best you will find in all of Sydney.
Sydney Showground

The first venue on the list is Sydney Showground, and for good reason. Located at the Sydney Olympic Park, the Showground offers a variety of event spaces so you can select the one that best suits your preference. Choose from venues like the Dome, Spotless Stadium, Jenko and Kelly Pavilions, exhibition halls, or the Sydney Royal Stables. Known for its connection with local farms around Sydney, Showground offers some of the finest cuisines you will ever taste in Sydney.
Taronga Centre

Next on the list is the Taronga Center, which overlooks the spectacular Sydney Harbor. This venue offers multiple choices for conferences and events. Most corporate events have complete access to Taronga’s slew of activities like Sky Safari and tour of their personal zoo. Catering of your corporate events are handled by premium service providers that offer a delectable menu to surprise your guests.

SEA LIFE Sydney Aquarium

If you truly wish to make an event memorable, what better way to do so than hosting your corporate event in this city’s iconic aquarium? Sea Life offers specialized packages for corporate events, including buffets, sit-down dinners, and cocktail parties. This makes it a well suited venue for one of kind networking events and conferences. The attendees can indulge in 700 different species of aquatic life once they are done handing out the business cards.
Australian National Maritime Museum

The Australian Maritime Museum provides a rather up close and personal view of the city’s Darling Harbor. The event space you should look for here is the Lighthouse Gallery, offering a spectacular backdrop of both the city lights and the harbor. If you want, you can even select the HMAS Vampire; an old, retired naval destroyer.
Harbou Cruise

The final venue is Sydney’s Harbour., Numerous cruise companyprovides event packages for corporate events, workshops, or product launches.
Sydney offers some of the most remarkable venues for your corporate events and occasions. Rest assured that all of the venues listed herein will pleasantly surprise all your guests and result in a successful event.

Impact of Oil Prices to Housing Prices

In April, 2015 I wrote an article for a Houston client that was never used. Today Zero Hedge has an article titled “NAR Admits Oil Slump Finally Hits Housing Sales” that says in part, “We were told that low oil prices were unequivocally good for America, so it’s odd that, after seeing the weakest growth in pending home sales since Nov 2014, NAR blames “softness in sales on oil-related job losses from low oil prices.” Pending home sales grew 2.1% YoY in October, (way below the 4.3% expected growth and 3.2% growth in September).”

So here is the article that I wrote: Impact of Oil Prices to Housing Prices

Impact of Oil Prices to Housing Prices

Impact of Oil Prices to Housing Prices

A paper delivered in April 2011 by Rachel Ang and Xiaobing Shaui titled “The Financial Impact of Oil Prices on the Housing Market in the Houston Economy” examined the relationship between the impact of oil prices to housing prices, unemployment rate, and population in Houston. The chart above shows as oil prices increased to $80, the population increased from 3.6 million to almost 5.4 million. The census data for the area in 2010 was 5,920,416. The Texas Department of State Health Services projects the population of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA to be 6,473,316 in 2014.The study concluded, “There is a significant correlation between oil prices and housing prices in Houston.” Duh, you say!

Impact of Oil Prices to Housing Prices

Impact of Oil Prices to Housing Prices

The next question of the research was “To what degree are oil prices correlated with unemployment rate in Houston?” The study concluded “There is a significant correlation between oil prices and unemployment rate in Houston.”

We might conclude from the study that the last time oil prices were this low, population was about 5 million according to the study and according to the census figures about 500,000 higher, so about 5.5 million. That might mean Houston could lose 1 million people or at best remain flat from here. Second, that the last time oil prices were this low, unemployment was near 6% to 7%. Right now Houston has the lowest unemployment of the major cities in the US.

Last June, 2014, oil prices hovered near $100 and since the first of the year has traded between $45 and $55. So far the fall in oil prices hasn’t had much effect except for a cancellation of some major high rise housing projects. Belt tightening as it were. The big question is what’s next for oil? Some suggest our storage capacity in Oklahoma is full and oil will have to be sold into the market to make room for new supply. That would be bad for oil prices. Others are worried about the geo politics of oil. The Mid East is aflame with terrorists close to seizing another choke point in Aden. A cut off in oil could send oil prices rocketing.

Houston seems to be at a crossroads.

If Houston experiences layoffs by the big energy companies in Houston and higher unemployment, housing will feel the impact. The financial stress brings on financial stress in the family leading to higher debt to maintain the standard of living, divorce because of money woes, downsizing to make ends meet, and homeowners wanting to move where jobs are plentiful.

If oil prices rebound, more people will conclude that Houston for a lot of reasons, is a great place to move to. The weather is wonderful most of the year, education is one of the best in the country, and there is a lively arts and culture environment. If sports and outdoor activities are your interests, then Houston has it all. The demand for homes in the $300,000 to $500,000 range will surge and prices of housing will rise to meet the demand.

It all depends on oil. Whatever oil prices do, Houston has been through it and will weather it and come out bigger and stronger. That’s what veteran real estate people know from experience.

College Football Upsets Week 13

#6 Notre Dame 36, #9 Stanford 38

#7 Baylor 21, #19 TCU 28 2OT

#12 Florida 2, #13 Florida State 27

#15 Navy  31, #21 Houston 52

#20 Washington State 10 , Washington 45

#22 UCLA 21, USC 40

#24 Toledo 30, Western Michigan 35

Nebraska under Mike Riley doesn’t win 6 games and doesn’t go to a bowl.

 

Locally: Civil War Day

Oregon is favored by 35.5 points beats Oregon State 52 to 42. No defense plays an inspired football team and almost lost. Oregon State lost when it couldn’t convert a 4th and 7 to go 49 to 52. An onside kick and a recovery would have won the game.

Copyright © 2007 Mover Mike. Design by Anthony Baggett.