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$100 to $120 Oil?

From the AP in The Oregonian on October 30: Industry analysts say era of ‘cheap oil’ probably over
In the article Art Smith of John S. Herold

thinks higher-than-usual prices are needed to moderate consumer and industrial demand and to spur enough new drilling to give oil markets a bigger supply cushion.

On October 21st I wrote that some like Bridgewater are warning us of $100 to $120 oil

Why not just pump more oil?
Bridgewater says Oil production is pressing up against production capacity and the rate of growth in demand is exceeding our abilty to increase production.
How does Bridgewater arrive at $100 to $120 per barrel? It seems that the demand for oil is inelastic. It causes big increases in price to get consumers to change their behavior. Oil consumption today is about 2.7% of GDP. At its peak in the 1980’s it took consumption at 8% of GDP to curb demand and interest rates were 16% briefly. It would take oil at $120 for consumption to equal 8% which would curtail demand (and slow economic activity).

I think the article in The Oregonian is much to cautious and we should be preparing for the consequences of much higher oil prices.
Mover Mike

The Real Story About Al Qaqaa???

Ever heard of
Dr. Jack Wheeler
? in To The Point , he writes about Al Qaqaa and the real story is that the CIA is behind the information that came out about the “missing” explosives. He believes there are leftists (Rogue Weasels in the CIA who believe like the State Department that the way to manage disputes between countries is to talk, accomodate, and appease. These Rogue Weasels are not happy with the war on terrorism, and want Kerry elected. He says this faction leaked information to CBS which was happy to run the story on Sunday the 31st. The plan was destroyed when an opposing group alligned with Porter Goss, the new head of the CIA, replacing George Tenet, went to the NYT with the story and it was run before CBS, and gave the Bush people time for rebuttal. On October 29th, Wheeler writes

This was the last gasp of the Rogue Weasels. Porter’s Purge is coming – upwards of eighty Bush-hating left-wing Kerry stooges are going to be fired at the CIA in November. Looks like the pro-America guys are going to be running the Company once again.

The(Rogue Weasels)leader of this effort at the CIA is Paul Pillar. His 1983 book, Negotiating Peace was a paean to appeasement with the Soviets – and yes, he was one of the main guys at Langley supporting Gulbuddin (of Afghanistan). Pillar’s the guy who leaked the gloomy NIE (National Intelligence Estimate, or rather selected portions of it) on Iraq so Kerry could bash Bush with it. Pillar knew it was OBE (Overtaken By Events, obsolete) by the time it was written in July, much less when it was leaked in September, as it was based on research conducted in April – but all’s fair in war.

Here’s a link to PORTER AT THE PASS: HEADING OFF THE CIA’S OCTOBER SURPRISE by Dr. Jack Wheeler
Mover Mike

Update:


Do You Think We’ll Get A Signed SF-180 before 11/2?

Pat at
pawigoview
said in a comment to me

Part of his(Kerry’s) record may become public according to numerous blogs that are quoting the Swiftvet site saying a Secretary of the Navy said Kerry received a Less Than Honorable Discharge. Let us hope this can be verified before 11/2

Lets remember what Pat is writing about as I reprint the Thomas Lipscomb column that appeared in
The New York Sun
:
Mystery Surrounds Kerry’s Navy Discharge

An official Navy document on Senator Kerry’s campaign Web site listed as Mr. Kerry’s “Honorable Discharge from the Reserves” opens a door on a well kept secret about his military service.

The document is a form cover letter in the name of the Carter administration’s secretary of the Navy, W. Graham Claytor. It describes Mr. Kerry’s discharge as being subsequent to the review of “a board of officers.” This in it self is unusual. There is nothing about an ordinary honorable discharge action in the Navy that requires a review by a board of officers.

According to the secretary of the Navy’s document, the “authority of reference” this board was using in considering Mr. Kerry’s record was “Title 10, U.S. Code Section 1162 and 1163. “This section refers to the grounds for involuntary separation from the service. What was being reviewed, then, was Mr. Kerry’s involuntary separation from the service. And it couldn’t have been an honorable discharge, or there would have been no point in any review at all. The review was likely held to improve Mr. Kerry’s status of discharge from a less than honorable discharge to an honorable discharge.

A Kerry campaign spokesman, David Wade, was asked whether Mr. Kerry had ever been a victim of an attempt to deny him an honorable discharge. There has been no response to that inquiry.

The document is dated February 16, 1978. But Mr. Kerry’s military commitment began with his six-year enlistment contract with the Navy on February 18, 1966. His commitment should have terminated in 1972. It is highly unlikely that either the man who at that time was a Vietnam Veterans Against the War leader, John Kerry, requested or the Navy accepted an additional six year reserve commitment. And the Claytor document indicates proceedings to reverse a less than honorable discharge that took place sometime prior to February 1978.

The most routine time for Mr. Kerry’s discharge would have been at the end of his six-year obligation, in 1972. But how was it most likely to have come about?

NBC’s release this March of some of the Nixon White House tapes about Mr. Kerry show a great deal of interest in Mr. Kerry by Nixon and his executive staff, including, perhaps most importantly, Nixon’s special counsel, Charles Colson. In a meeting the day after Mr. Kerry’s Senate testimony, April 23, 1971, Mr. Colson attacks Mr. Kerry as a “complete opportunist…We’ll keep hitting him, Mr. President.”

Mr. Colson was still on the case two months later, according to a memo he wrote on June 15,1971, that was brought to the surface by the Houston Chronicle. “Let’s destroy this young demagogue before he becomes another Ralph Nader.” Nixon had been a naval officer in World War II. Mr. Colson was a former Marine captain. Mr. Colson had been prodded to find “dirt” on Mr. Kerry, but reported that he couldn’t find any.

The Nixon administration ran FBI surveillance on Mr. Kerry from September 1970 until August 1972. Finding grounds for an other than honorable discharge, however, for a leader of the Vietnam Veterans Against the War, given his numerous activities while still a reserve officer of the Navy, was easier than finding “dirt.”

For example, while America was still at war, Mr. Kerry had met with the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong delegation to the Paris Peace talks in May 1970 and then held a demonstration in July 1971 in Washington to try to get Congress to accept the enemy’s seven point peace proposal without a single change. Woodrow Wilson threw Eugene Debs, a former presidential candidate, in prison just for demonstrating for peace negotiations with Germany during World War I. No court overturned his imprisonment. He had to receive a pardon from President Harding.

Mr. Colson refused to answer any questions about his activities regarding Mr. Kerry during his time in the Nixon White House. The secretary of the Navy at the time during the Nixon presidency is the current chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Warner. A spokesman for the senator, John Ullyot, said, “Senator Warner has no recollection that would either confirm or challenge any representation that Senator Kerry received a less than honorable discharge.”

The “board of officers” review reported in the Claytor document is even more extraordinary because it came about “by direction of the President.” No normal honorable discharge requires the direction of the president. The president at that time was James Carter. This adds another twist to the story of Mr. Kerry’s hidden military records.

Mr. Carter’s first act as president was a general amnesty for draft dodgers and other war protesters. Less than an hour after his inauguration on January 21, 1977, while still in the Capitol building, Mr. Carter signed Executive Order 4483 empowering it. By the time it became a directive from the Defense Department in March 1977 it had been expanded to include other offenders who may have had general, bad conduct, dishonorable discharges, and any other discharge or sentence with negative effect on military records. In those cases the directive outlined a procedure for appeal on a case by case basis before a board of officers. A satisfactory appeal would result in an improvement of discharge status or an honorable discharge.

Mr. Kerry has repeatedly refused to sign Standard Form 180, which would allow the release of all his military records. And some of his various spokesmen have claimed that all his records are already posted on his Web site. But the Washington Post already noted that the Naval Personnel Office admitted that they were still withholding about 100 pages of files.

If Mr. Kerry was the victim of a Nixon “enemies list” hit, one might have expected him to wear it like a badge of honor, like many others such as his friend Daniel Ellsberg, who leaked the Pentagon Papers, CBS’s Daniel Schorr, or the actor Paul Newman, who had made Mr. Colson’s original list of 20 “enemies.”

There are a number of categories of discharges besides honorable. There are general discharges, medical discharges, bad conduct discharges, as well as other than honorable and dishonorable discharges. There is one odd coincidence that gives some weight to the possibility that Mr. Kerry was dishonorably discharged. Mr. Kerry has claimed that he lost his medal certificates and that is why he asked that they be reissued. But when a dishonorable discharge is issued, all pay benefits, and allowances, and all medals and honors are revoked as well. And five months after Mr. Kerry joined the U.S. Senate in 1985, on one single day, June 4, all of Mr. Kerry’s medals were reissued.

This article was published by The New York Sun.


October 29 – Gold $428.20 up $3.50

Most people don’t care and are not aware, but this kind of thing is liable to get investor’s attention one of these days. With oil staying persistently above $50 per barrel and the US dollar closing weak, this monthly close of $428.20, the highest on a monthly basis in 16 years, is telling us that things are changing. The winner on Tuesday is going to have his hands full!
Mover Mike

IQ’s and Lies

Let’s make sure this is widely disseminated. Kerry says he has released all his military records. However, we know that the Navy has 100 pages not released, because Kerry has not authorized the release of those papers. He needs to sign SF-180 and he refuses to, but says his records are on his website for all to see. Now this, in his interview with Tom Brokaw:

Brokaw: Someone has analyzed the President’s military aptitude tests and yours, and concluded that he has a higher IQ than you do.

Kerry: That’s great. More power. I don’t know how they’ve done it, because my record is not public. So I don’t know where you’re getting that from.

(my emphasis added)
Mover Mike

Stories and Facts (?)

Jeff Jarvis at
BuzzMachine
writes about something that I have felt for some time.

: The biggest lesson of our new news world is that news doesn’t end when it’s printed or aired. That’s when it begins. That’s when we hear other evidence and questions and perspective. News takes time.

First, we have a news story and the initial reaction. Then we tear the story apart with what seems like spin. After awhile, there is so much information, it’s hard to keep all the stories and facts(?) straight. It becomes a flood of information and one needs to be an attorney to sort all the information. There is no black and white, no bottom line. It remains a debate that both sides of the story can claim theirs is the Truth. My eyes gaze over, and that’s the strategy.
Mover Mike

Justice Delayed

From
The Seattle Times

During a conference call with Republican leaders, (Rep. John) Boehner talked about the pending Ethics Committee probe of then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich over the way Gingrich funded a college course he taught via satellite through a tax-deductible political-action committee.

A Florida couple intercepted and taped the call and gave it to McDermott on Jan. 8, 1997.

McDermott then leaked the tape to The New York Times and Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

(District Court), has ordered Congressman Jim McDermott to pay $60,000 plus attorney fees that could total more than $545,000 to a Republican congressman (Boehner) who sued McDermott for leaking his cellphone conversations to news reporters. In a harshly worded decision received by attorneys this week, U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Hogan said McDermott’s “willful and knowing misconduct rises to the level of malice in this case.”

It’s nice to see that the laws are applied to politicians and citizens equally!
Mover Mike

Satellites and Wizbang

In 600,000 tons of Explosives Part 2, I raged

It’s time to stop fighting with one arm tied behind our backs. We have satelites. We can see if trucks are ferrying materiel across the border into Syria. We had a no fly zone in the north and the south. Why the hell didn’t we stop those trucks!

I’m indebted to Boyd at
Texas Native

don’t overestimate our ability to surveil the many sites of interest throughout Iraq. There are several difficulties.

1) You have a fixed amount of surveillance assets, in this case, satellites.

2) You have to prioritize your surveillance targets, because due to #1 above, you can’t watch everything.

3) Photographic satellite surveillance doesn’t work at night.

4) Photographic satellite surveillance doesn’t work when it’s cloudy.

5) Many, if not most, photographic surveillance satellites are not geostationary, so you look as you pass overhead a target area. When you don’t have an asset in range, you can’t see anything.

Even technical means of intelligence aren’t omniscient.

The discussion at
Wizbang
is quite interesting. Wizbang has a theory that IAEA may have lied to the Security Council about quantities of RDX and HMX and that THIS is the big story that the MSM is missing.

Update:


WSJ Puts This in Context

The WSJ Opinion Journal under
Saddam’s U.N. Payroll

Oil for Food bribery means sanctions against Iraq were doomed to fail.

Anyone who has followed this story knows that there was a reason why France, Germany, and Russia were interfering with enforcement of the 18 UN Resolutions. Money! And, if sanctions were lifted, Saddam would have immediately started production of WMD’s.

…a U.S. President would have eventually faced the same uncertainties and the same agonizing choice that Mr. Bush did when he decided to commit the U.S. to war.

Mover Mike-1000

CNN Reported…

On
Betsy’s Page
, Betsy probably sums up what we are all thinking about the Gertz report

I sure hope that John Shaw wouldn’t say this if he didn’t have the chops to back it up.

Jedidah at Free Republic reminds us of the
CNN report
on April 6, 2003

A convoy of vehicles carrying Russian diplomats and journalists came under fire Sunday as it headed out of Baghdad…

The Russians were there in Iraq. It sure gives credence to Gertz’s report.
Mover Mike

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