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TSUNAMI and The Ring of Fire

I have subscribed in the past to futurist GORDON MICHAEL SCALLION’s Newsletter.

He noted in the January/February issue of “Intuitive Flash” 2005 resumes Earth changes especially near the equator, Ring of Fire and the West Coast of America. However, the Indian Ocean quake and the resulting tsunamis indicate that they have started 5 days earlier than I predicted.

As to the Indian Ocean quake, indications are that this is the first of a series of early warning signs for future changes. The next sign to watch for is “significant” activity in Mexico, and in the Pacific Northwest, specifically Mount Rainer. By “significant” I mean an eruption. Mount Saint Helens is already active and while this was not a specific early warning sign that I had predicted, Mount Saint Helens and Mount Rainier are all part of the same Cascades range and are subject to the same magma flows and pressures.

Here’s another interesting site that shows earthquakes, visually, around The Ring of Fire: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

A new Web Cam of Mt Rainier added in December of 2004: http://www.nps.gov/mora/cam/paradise.jpg
Mover Mike

SE ASIA TSUNAMI #3

Earth Changes TV and WAXY.ORG have menus of videos of the tsunami. My heart just aches watching the water surging higher and higher, unlike a wave at the beach, there is no recession. The people are scared and incredulous.

Then WorldNet Daily has a very good article about the Cascadia Subduction Zone and the risks we face here in the Northwest.

.The BBC has an article about how Web Logs Aid Disaster Recovery
Mover Mike

SE ASIA TSUNAMI #2

The news from SE Asia is bad enough without News for Yahoos from Yahoo News reporting Maldives loses 42 islands as tsunami toll hits 117

MALE (AFP) – At least 42 islands in the tourist paradise of the Maldives were flattened with 117 people killed and missing after tsunamis raved the low-lying atoll nation, the president said.

Not only is the title misleading, but further in the article is this piece of nonsense:

The tragedy struck the atoll nation of 330,000 Sunni Muslims which is already facing the prospect of extinction from sea level rise caused by global warming. Gayoom had warned that a one-meter (three foot four inch) rise in sea levels could submerge his country.

Not only is Global Warming just a theory, but there is no evidense of rising sea levels; As Michael Chrichton wrote about in State of Fear
Mover Mike

I wondered if the 9.0 Earthquake would have an effect around the Ring of Fire. Mitch Battros at Earth Changes TV says both Yellowstone and Mt. St. Helens have been relatively quiet. Here’s the link for viewing Mt. St. Helens.
Mover Mike

As if India hasn’t had enough, now Drudge is reporting the last volcano in India is erupting.
Mover Mike

Ahh! The Feeling of Safety

Here’s one less thing to be thing to worry about:
According to Nathan Tabor at NewsMax

First, according to statistics provided by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, there is an interesting correlation between accidental deaths caused by guns and those caused by doctors.

Doctors: (A) There are 700,000 physicians in the U.S. (B) Accidental deaths caused by physicians total 120,000 per year. (C) Accidental death percentage per physician is 0.171.

Guns: (A) There are 80 million gun owners in the U.S. (B) There are 1,500 accidental gun deaths per year, all age groups. (C) The percentage of accidental deaths per gun owner is 0.0000188.

Statistically, then, doctors are 9,000 times more dangerous to the public health than gun owners are.

Again, the MSM, every year inform us about the dangers of gun ownership.
My wife is convinced!
She is adamant against buying a gun for home protection.

According to Soyouwanna.com 43,200 die from motor vehicle crashes each year. We have two cars and two physicians (and many more at our disposal through rental car companies and physicians at our HMO). I would feel safer with a gun. Maybe I could threaten my doctor with my car!
Mover Mike

Revisiting The High Cost of Defense

Back on November 01, 2004, I reported

In June of 2004, Robert Bell, Chairman of the Economics Department, Brooklyn College, N.Y. delivered a paper in Barcelona titled the THE U.S. GOVERNMENT’S BUBBLE BLOWING MACHINE.
The paper describes how in the Spring of 2003 Ken Pedeleose, an analyst at the Pentagon department intended to control program costs at federal contractors, was startled to find that the overhead costs of virtually every airplane that Lockheed Martin sold the U.S. Air Force would soon be skyrocketing in price. Pedeleose had personally researched the massive cost increases on the C-130J transport, which would go up from $1.193 billion in 2003 to $8.352 billion by 2006. Documents widely circulated by others in the Pentagon showed that costs for the F-16 program would jump from $3.49 billion in 2004 to $6.66 billion in 2005 and then on to $14.84 billion the next year. The F/A-22, F-117, and many other programs showed similar vaults in costs.

The question is, why would an established program show an increase in costs, assuming there is no major increase in the number of planes built? Shouldn’t there be a learning curve, meaning the more planes built, the cheaper the cost per plane?

In a 23 June 2003 letter to the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, Charles Grassley, Pedeleose gave the reason: Lockheed Martin “has to make up hundreds of millions of dollars in their pension funds that were invested in the stock market.”

Lockheed Martin and other federal contractors literally operate under a law unto themselves, known as U.S. Government Cost Accounting Standards.

“The total funding requirement for our pension plans under U.S. Government Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) in 2002 was $87 million. CAS is a major factor in determining our funding requirements and governs the extent to which our pension costs are allocable to and recoverable under contracts with the U.S. Government. For 2003, we expect our funding requirements under CAS to increase substantially. This amount is recovered over time through the pricing of our products and services on U.S. Government contracts, and therefore is recognized in our net sales.”

The last sentence is particularly interesting. It means if Lockheed Martin loses pension fund money on the stock market, the company ultimately increases the size of its revenue by adding the losses onto its prices to the federal government.(Emphasis added

From the 3rd Quarter 2004 Lockheed Martin Quarterly Report

The outlook for 2005 operating profit and earnings per share assume that the Corporation’s 2005 FAS/CAS adjustment will be within a range of ($550) to ($300) million.

Today in the NY Times, Looking for Cuts, Pentagon Turns to Jet Fighter Program, the Pentagon is looking at making sharp cuts to the F/A-22. Seems the plane’s cost has gone from $35 million apiece to $258 Million per. Good Luck cutting this program. Not only is the cost written into law, but 1000 contractors in 43 states have a vested interest in the program continuing.
Mover Mike

SE ASIA TSUNAMI

Like you, I am stunned by the images and wave files from SE Asia regarding the earthquake and tsunami and the massive loss of life. Earth Observatory News from NASA has a drawing of the tectonic plates involved in this disaster, the best drawing I’ve seen. To see the size of Sumatra and to read that it was moved 100 meters by the earthquake is beyond words. To read that the energy involved was 23,000 times the power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima is beyond my ability to imagine. Then to read that this was caused by global warming is laughable

Media Linking Killer Tsunami to Global Warming

I wonder if we will see more super quakes reverberate around the ring of fire. Since the earthquake was caused by a subduction zone like we have here in the Northwest, I wonder if we will soon experience the same kind of earthquake. Let us pray for the families of those who died, that their souls are not made bitter by their losses.
Mover Mike

Tuesday, December 28

USD is at 1.3636 Euros. That’s down from just over 1.35+. Two days, two pretty big drops.
The other day I said

Since my return from Cabo, I’ve learned that Gold production is declining. Production is estimated to fall from around 2500 tons to 2000 tons over the next ten years. The reason for this was a lack of Exploration during the 1997 – 2002 period. During this period Exploration budgets had been cut by 67% simply due to the fact that Exploration programs weren’t profitable with a Gold price below $350 / ounce. No Exploration means no new Gold deposits ! Like so many products that become short in supply, it takes 4 to 10 years to correct the imbalance. Think not only gold mines, but paper mills and refineries.

Last month the trade deficit for just the month was $58 Billion. That is almost $2 Billion per day! If a tonne of gold costs $14 Million, our daily deficit is equal to 143 tonnes per day or 4290 tonnes a month, 51,480 tonnes a year! Why would anyone accept our paper for over 50,000 tons of gold that is in short supply?

I knew the 50,000 tons was a large number, but I just learned that in all of mining history 145,000 tons of gold have been mined and 15% of that has been lost, leaving 123,000 tons. Imagine our trading partners are exchanging our paper for over 51,000 tons of gold a year or over 40% of all the gold still in existence in the whole world!
Muy Incredible! This will not end well.
Mover Mike

It’s Amazing to Me…

Since my return from Cabo, I’ve learned that Gold production is declining. Production is estimated to fall from around 2500 tons to 2000 tons over the next ten years.

The reason for this was a lack of Exploration during the 1997 – 2002 period. During this period Exploration budgets had been cut by 67% simply due to the fact that Exploration programs weren’t profitable with a Gold price below $350 / ounce. No Exploration means no new Gold deposits !

Like so many products that become short in supply, it takes 4 to 10 years to correct the imbalance. Think not only gold mines, but paper mills and refineries.

Last month the trade deficit for just the month was $58 Billion. That is almost $2 Billion per day! If a tonne of gold costs $14 Million, our daily deficit is equal to 143 tonnes per day or 4290 tonnes a month, 51,480 tonnes a year! Why would anyone accept our paper for over 50,000 tons of gold that is in short supply?

Germany’s Bundesbank was expected to sell 120 tonnes of gold into the world market, but decided to sell only 8 tonnes. Argentina is increasing their gold reserves as are Russia, China and the Middle East.

The big news for me that I heard about while in Mexico: Mexico is moving toward the remonetization of silver Hugo Salinas Price — businessman, philosopher, and Mexican patriot — describes in an essay the progress of monitization:

This November 30 the 31 governors of all the
states that make up the Mexican Republic sent
a communiqué to the Ways and Means Committee
of the Mexican House of Representatives,
expressing their unanimous approval of the
monetization of silver and urging the committee
to approve a bill which aims to achieve precisely
this objective.

A poll by national TV Azteca revealed that
96 percent of viewers approved of the
monetization of the silver ounce.

The Bank of Mexico, Mexico’s Central Bank,
is adamantly opposed to this measure. The
bank does not want the public to have the
opportunity of saving in monetized silver.
It wants to maintain its monopoly on the
printing of Mexico’s money, which has no
intrinsic value
and does not want the
public to have any alternative for its
savings, other than bills or bank deposits. (emphasis added)

We insist we are a capitalist country, yet other countries practice what we preach. They value gold, they privatize Social security (Chile), they have no capital gains tax (Japan or Canada), they are moving to a precious metal backed currency (Mexico and China). Meantime we squander our resources. Isn’t it amazing how we can spend $200+ Billions in Iraq, but can’t find $100 million to contribute to the global food aid programs.
Mover Mike

Cabo San Lucas

Ola! Mover Mike is back from Cabo San Lucas, tan, well fed, and ready for Christmas with my family. My first time to Mexico, other than Tijuana and Ensenada; more on Cabo later. Thursday night will be spent with Mom, kids and grand kids, Friday night with Dad and his wife, and Saturday with my wife’s family. In Mexico, it is considered polite to show up at a party two hours late! Dinner starts at midnight and goes on until early in the morning. After Christmas until New Years my wife and I will make plans for the business in 2005.
The tip of Baja includes San Jose de Cabo and Cabo San Lucas, here lives the largest collection of ex-pats anywhere in the world. For an Oregonian it is quite pleasurable to sit on the beach at 8:00PM, with toes in the sand at The Sand Bar, in a short sleeve shirt in December. The food was wonderful, though expensive at tourist stops. Snorkeling in Santa Maria bay was amazing in the warm water; so many fish. There is quite a disparity between the incomes of Americans and Mexicans, where the tourist dependent Mexican earns somewhere between $5 USD and $11 USD per day. However, there doesn’t appear to be any major envy. It seems the goal of many Mexicans is to move to the US and make American money.
In some ways Mexico appears to be very Old World. The pace is slower and there is a respect or politness, much like we see in our stereotypical mafia family on TV. It is polite to address someone as senor or senora, on Don senor if they are elderly. When you enter someone’s shop, you are always greeted with Ola and you respond buenas dias, or buenos tardes, or buenos noches. When you leave you may shake hands and say gracias. The taxi drivers are polite and it is best to negotiate a price before getting in, so there are no surprises. When you get out, pay, shake hands and say gracias senor. The US and Mexico are so different, and both have great qualities. The danger is to make one like the other, instead of appreciating the differences.
We took a tour up Baja to Todos Santos, where the Hotel California is located. All along the way is the simply gorgeous view of the Pacific Ocean with beautiful sandy beaches priced at $35 USD per meter frontage. Imagine Oregon beach property at $3500 for 350 feet of frontage. Cabo reminds me of La Jolla, California. I suspect that Baja may look like as crowded as the Amalfi Coast in Italy. The one shortage is water. Baja gets about four inches per year and many hotels have desalinazation machines.
Tourism and timeshares are the big industries. 9/11 hurt Baja. Everyone talks about the timeshare visit. You are either involved in selling timeshares, referring, dependent on the money given as inducements, or sitting in the 90 minute meeting, then comparing your loot with others. For the record we received transportation to and from our hotel to the airport, $50 USD to be used at the restaurant Ole! Ole!, $50 USD to be used at the restaurant Mi Casa, a free snorkeling trip to Santa Maria Bay with lunch and an open bar, a tour by bus to Todos Santos, a bottle of Kahlua, a bottle of Tequila, a Mexican blanket and $20 USD.
My wife and I again agreed to disagree about the benefits of the “vacation club”. Fiesta Americana is a five star resort between Cabo and San Jose, truly spectacular! The one bedroom suite in the vacation club next to the hotel of the same name, rents for $623 USD per night. We agreed to take a look again next year and stay in the hotel for eight days, seven nights for $995 USD plus tax. I have a year to prove to her that we can afford it.

Tuesday December 14th

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