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B. Bradford Replies:

B. Bradford has replied to my post:

Thank you for your response.

At the very least, use inflation adjusted dollars or
you are comparing 2000 dollars to 1999 dollars to 1998
dollars, which is completely invalid. Using a
constant measure is critical in producing a valid
chart.

You can see charts of the surplus here

I find your explanation, that the Republicans want to
“mislead” us into thinking that there was a surplus
under the Democrats, highly unlikely.

B. Bradford, I am not going to adjust the deficit for inflation. I don’t want you to feel good about the deficit.
Quoting from an earlier Mover Mike:

“The gimmicked accounting standards, as established during the Johnson era, and as used today for official, unified budget reporting, show a 2003 deficit of $374.3 billion. Using GAAP reporting (without Social Security reporting), the official GAAP deficit for 2003 expands to $665.0 billion. Including accounting for Social Security and related areas, the 2003 deficit balloons to $3,702 billion, or $3.7 trillion. The accounting reflects no adjustment for the new, more expensive Medicare program.” (in all cases I’ve added emphasis)

2004 Results

Results for the official 2004 deficit will be published in the next several months, and the numbers are projected by the Bush administration to be significantly worse than in 2003, $445 billion versus $374 billion, with the actual deficit likely to near $4.3 trillion (my estimate). The 2004 GAAP financial statements on the government will not be published until March/April

—————————–GAAP-Based——–GAAP-Based

Fiscal——–“Official”—-Deficit Without—Deficit With

-Year———–Deficit——Soc. Sec., Etc.–Soc. Sec., Etc.

————————————————————

2004 est.—$445 Billion—–$800 Billion—–$4.3 Trillion

2003——–$374 Billion—–$665 Billion—–$3.7 Trillion

2002——–$158 Billion—–$365 Billion—–$1.5 Trillion

The politicians would like you to adjust the deficit for inflation, that would make it look smaller. But they are already playing games with the deficit to make it look smaller. Above are numbers just for 2002, 2003 and 2004, showing what the real deficit is.

We have a neat scam going. We go into debt and debase the dollar through inflation and make the value of the dollars we pay back worth less. Since 1971 when the US went off the Gold Standard the value of the dollar has been debased to the tune of 95%.

Why do the Republicans go along with the fiction of a surplus in the Clinton years? Because they want to use the same tricks Clinton and Bush I, and Carter and Reagan and Nixon used. They want to continmue spending money, giving the voters essentially bread and circuses for their vote, without raising taxes.

IT’S A TRAVESTY!

B Bradford Budget Surplus Clinton Administration national debt Mover Mike

Typhoon Ioke

From VOA News,

Super Typhoon Ioke has made a direct hit on Wake Island, pounding the tiny U.S. Pacific territory with catastrophic winds of up to 300 kilometers an hour. Ioke is the strongest central Pacific typhoon in at least 12 years. Forecasters expect the “monster” storm to submerge Wake Island and destroy everything on it that is not made of concrete.

Ioke, a Category 5 Typhoon, packing sustained winds of more than 220 mph, with some gusts topping 250 mph, came ashore at about 10 a.m. ET.

Typhoon Ioke Wake Island Mover Mike

Hurricane John

The US has been relatively unscathed by hurricanes this season. Either the storms have fallen apart or like Ernesto veered from the GOM and quickly fell back to tropical storm status. For Florida, 45 mph winds and rain is a lot better than 140 mph winds.
There is one area that is going to get hit today and tomorrow and that’s Mexico and the Cabo San Lucas area. We had a great time there in January. Please join me in offering a prayer to our friends in Cabo that they make it through Hurricane John safely.

Hurricane John Mexico Cabo San Lucas Mover Mike

Class Size

My teacher friends won’t like me saying this, but when I went to Madison High School, it was one of the biggest schools in the city. We had over 3,000 students and received a fine education. There was never talk about class size that I recall. Today, that’s one of the big reasons for the schools needing more money: to lower the class size.

In California, according to the SacBee this morning, the state is trying to figure out how to spend a $2.9 Billion windfall won from the governor. Now, experts are questioning the merits of reduced class size.

Comprehensive research of California’s existing class-size reduction program shows no solid connection between shrinking classes and boosting student achievement. That’s raising questions about the state’s pending decision — through Senate Bill 1133 — to pour $2.9 billion over the next seven years into decreasing class size at additional grade levels.”This is really a dark continent in terms of any research,” said Stanford education professor Michael Kirst, who has studied the state’s class-size reduction program.

[…]

(Schwarzenegger’s) secretary for education, Alan Bersin, said the proposal to shrink classes will improve education for the state’s neediest students.

“The research is clear that class size reduction, in and of itself, does not improve student achievement,” Bersin said. “But that, coupled with improved teaching, can be decisive.”(emphasis added)

Here may be the reason we hear so much from the NEA about class size. In California, the $2.9 Billion and emphasis on lower class size, according to State education officials, will result in an estimated need for an additional 2,000 to 3,000 teachers.

More teachers, bigger membership and more power!

Teachers Class Size California Mover Mike

Storm Large In Bottom Three

Well, Storm got her wish and rang up her first bottom three, along with Ryan and Dilana. Storm sang Helter Skelter, Ryan was manic and jumped off the amps and Dilana gave a weird performance singing a Talking Heads song. In the end Ryan was booted.

Storm acted surprised because Gilby said she hadn’t grown much in nine weeks and Dilana looked relieved. She had avoided being dispatched even though her mouth had severely wounded her. The remaining five get a good lesson in song writing. That could be very valuable.

Who will be the next to go? I can only guess. My money is still on Storm in the top four!

Storm Large Rock Star Supernova Mover Mike

Memo: To B Bradford

Somebody by the name of B.Bradford emails me

Regarding your blog entry about the “Alleged Budget Surplus During the Clinton Administration” I just wanted to bring some facts to your attention.Firstly, you are not using adjusted dollars, therefore you are incorrect including inflation in your
measurement. A better measure would be to use debt as
a percentage of GDP.
(Note to Bradford: No where in my post is there any mention of inflation or adjustment for inflation and as for percentage of GDP See chart below)

Secondly, even today the White House (under the Republicans) states that there was a surplus:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2002/guide04.html
(Note to Bradford: I am not responsible for the stupidity of the Republicans, besides it is in their interest to confuse you.)

Thirdly, measures of public debt are NOT the same as
measures of national debt. Some debt is
intragovernmental holdings via the Federal Reserve.

If your webpage was to use adjusted dollars, or
preferably percent of GDP you’ll find that in fact the
debt did, as the White House says, decrease due to a
surplus.
(Note to Bradford: If total debt as a percent of GDP goes down, it means that GDP is rising faster than debt growth and does not mean that the budget is in surplus.)

So I hope you’ll correct, or at least amend your
information as it is currently incorrect.

Thanks,
B. Bradford

So, B Bradford I checked your link and, though the date shows to be August 30, 2006, the funny thing is the numbers look like they were prepared by the Clinton Administration or the Bush Administration prior to 9/11. It shows “Debt subject to legal limit” as 5,592 in 2000, with estimates of 5,588 in 2001, 5,627 in 2002, 5,688 in 2003, 5,749 in 2004, 5,822 in 2005, and 5,881 in 2006. It further states

Federal borrowing involves the sale, to the public, of notes and bonds of varying sizes and time periods until maturity. The cumulative amount of borrowing from the public—i.e., the debt held by the public—is the most important measure of Federal debt because it is what the Government has borrowed in the private markets over the years, and it determines how much the Government pays in interest to the public.

In other words it says we should only worry about the amount the Fed has to pay in interest to the public, not the government.

Now that’s just nuts. For example, let’s say that you have credit cards and mortgage, but you also decide to set up a college fund and actually put aside money every month in a “lock box” in your home for the kids college. You as the man of the house see all that money pile up. It is just sitting there and you need a new boat. So you borrow money for the boat from the “lock box”.

Next year that money is just sitting there and you want a new flat screen so you borrow that money from the “lock box”. Comes time for college and the “lock box” is bare and you say not to worry. The debt to the “lock box” is not the same as debt to the bank and the mortgage, because it is money we owe to ourself. Never mind the kids don’t get to go to college. B Bradford, we now owe over $8 Trillion and we must pay the interest on the Federal debt of $8 Trillion.

The facts are there was no surplus in the Clinton years. The Federal debt went up each year while he was in office. Not by a lot, but it still went up:

09/29/2000 $5,674,178,209,886.86
09/30/1999 $5,656,270,901,615.43
09/30/1998 $5,526,193,008,897.62
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
09/30/1996 $5,224,810,939,135.73
09/29/1995 $4,973,982,900,709.39
09/30/1994 $4,692,749,910,013.32
09/30/1993 $4,411,488,883,139.38
09/30/1992 $4,064,620,655,521.66


Source: Office of Management and Budget 2006

B Bradford Budget Surplus Clinton Administration national debt Mover Mike

Rock Star: Supernova

That was quite a show tonight. If you are a rock fan, you got a treat.

* Lukas – “Lithium” by Nirvana – That was about the best Lukas presentation and unlike times past, he worked just great with the audience and left the house band alone.
* Toby – “Rebel Yell” by Billy Idol – my ex-wife’s favorite song. Didn’t you just want to yell, “More, more, more?” Nice touch of bringing the girls on stage.
* Magni – “I Alone” by Live – another great performance by Magni and he really connected with the audience.

* Ryan – “Clocks” by Coldplay – I loved Ryan’s performance. His falsetto was really working. A little manic, maybe. Desperation, maybe? The way he used the microphone bothered me.
* Dilana – “Mother Mother” by Tracy Bonham – Top performance of the night. Dilana really can sing. She deserves this band. Someone said the winner will get no creative control, only $5,000 per week and no share of the profits if they win. Dave and Tommy say we should put last weeks outburst by Dilana behind us. Maybe, but maybe if she wins, its Karma.
* Storm – “Bring Me To Life” by Evanescence – I’ve saved commenting on Storm for last. I didn’t like the song, but I liked Storm and we haven’t seen Storm, really, since Anything, Anything. If she lands in the bottom three, which she probably will if the preliminary voting is a clue, she will get a chance to sing a song chosen by her. Then let the chips fall where they may. I think she’s better as a single. I can see it now “Storm Large and The Balls” headlining at the Hard Rock Cafe. I would pay to see that!

I would guess the band deserves Dilana or Lukas.

Bottom three: Storm, Magni, Ryan. Going home: Magni.

Storm Large Rock Star Supernova Mover Mike

Update:


New CD From Ray LaMontagne

The new Ray Lamontagne CD, Till The Sun Turns Black is out today and I just bought it online from Ray’s store. Sure I have to wait 7-12 days to receive it in the mail, but through Rhapsody I can listen to it as often as I like. I just can’t burn it!

Danielle at MySpace had this experience:

I called FYE music to get the new Ray Lamontagne CD today and they had it in stock and advised the price would be $15.99. But Wal*Mart just charged me $9.44 for the whole CD! Not to mention all the gas I saved not having to drive 40 miles to FYE.

I bought the CD online and here’s what I got.

1 – $.00 – 4SAM01/Rolling Stone Magazine 1 Year Subscription
1 – $.00 – MTDD01MP128/Sound Check Vol. 1 Digital Download Sampler
1 – $.00 – R9AM02/R9 Ray LaMontagne Promo Insert
1 – $15.00 – R9CD05/PREORDER Till The Sun Turns Black CD

I don’t subscribe to The Rolling Stone so I figure the CD cost me $6.70! So far, I’m loving the sound. It is always a risk to buy the second CD from an artist, but boy, the second CD from Katie Melua and now this. My luck has changed!!!

BTW, Ray will be performing on ‘Late Night with Conan O’Brien’ tonight on NBC. Check local listings for details. You can also listen to Ray’s interview and performance on NPR’s “Weekend Edition“.

Ray will be performing here on 10/4/06 at the Crystal Ballroom and on 10/5/06 at the Paramount Theatre in Seattle, WA. If tickets are still available go here

Ray LaMontagne Till The Sun Turns Black Katie Melua Rolling Stone Magazine Portland Oregon Crystal Ballroom Mover Mike

Update:


Storm’s On Tonight!

Lee Williams writes in The Oregonian, Don’t be ‘Cryin’ ‘ for chanteuse yet, in Storm Watch talks to Williams about Dilana and last weeks episode, see (Right Thoughts) that showed how snarky Dilanan could be.

“It was out-of-the-world bizarre,” Storm says. “I wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy. I don’t know where it came from. She had a bad day with the press, and it was shown to the world.”The reverberations of the episode were felt around the mansion. “It was an awful day . . . and Dilana and I are keeping our space,” Storm says.

With two weeks to go, there are six contestants left vying to front Supernova. I’m wondering if the bad press last week will sour some of Dilana’s support. If you are rooting for a woman to front Supernova, will that support go to Storm. We’ll see Wednesday.

dingoRUE has posted that the viewer’s choice songs for tonight are:

* Lukas – “Lithium” by Nirvana
* Toby – “Rebel Yell” by Billy Idol
* Magni – “I Alone” by Live
* Storm – “Bring Me To Life” by Evanescence
* Ryan – “Clocks” by Coldplay
* Dilana – “Mother Mother” by Tracy Bonham

Dave Navarro’s predictions for bottom three:

My prediction? Storm, Ryan and Toby.

Storm Large Rock Star Supernova Mover Mike

Drought Redux

Back in February, I posted here about the AccuWeather question, “Is America Facing Another Dust Bowl?” While we don’t as yet have “Beans in ‘teens”, we are still looking at a drought that is the worst since the 1930s in the mid-section of the U.S.


Map:Drought conditions

The NY Times has an article today about the drought and it effects on ranchers and farmers, Blistering Drought Ravages Farmland on Plains.

As if earless, shriveled cornstalks were not enough, farmers and ranchers say they carry a sense that their counterparts elsewhere seem to be doing just fine, leaving them with what feels like an invisible disaster, unnoticed by the outside world.

A cursory look at wheat, oats, corn and soy beans prices, with the exception of beans, show prices higher than February, but not extremes. This still bears watching!

Drought 1930s Dust Bowl Mover Mike

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