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Nickel

Back in August I posted in Nickel Shorts Breathing Hard! that Nickel seven months ago traded up through $29,000 a metric ton. I was shocked to see at Bloomberg that Nickel is trading over $45,000 a metric ton!

Nickel Base Metals Gold Mover Mike

Update:

Will the same price explosion occur in Gold? I’m betting it will because “the seven big TOCOM gold shorts increased their net short position by 1,090 contracts to 113,717 contracts.”

Gold on 3/30/07 $663.

Figures Don’t Lie, But Governments Do!

MaxedoutMama’s post about construction spending made me look at the story in the WSJ and I found the same error she posts about.

U.S. construction spending increased by 0.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.171 trillion, the Commerce Department said Friday. Spending fell 0.5% in January;

Here are the numbers from MoM

Total All Categories
Jan 2006..: 1,194,547
Feb 2006..: 1,199,873

Nov 2006..: 1,181,274
Dec 2006..: 1,189,308
Jan 2007..: 1,180,212 (YoY -14,335)
Feb 2007..: 1,170,817 (YoY -29,056)

(Actually down 2.5% from Feb., 2006 and down from January, 2007)

Residential construction spending fell by 1.0% to $570.9 billion, after January’s 1.8% drop. Year-over year, residential was 15% lower (Correct!).

Residential
Jan 2006..: 661,423
Feb 2006..: 662,557

Nov 2006..: 592,076
Dec 2006..: 586,088
Jan 2007..: 575,387
Feb 2007..: 562,404 (Actually fell 2.25% from January, 2007)

Nonresidential-construction spending increased by 1.5% in February. Outlays rose for hotels, factories, other commercial structures, and roads but fell for conservation facilities.

Non-Residential
Jan 2006..: 277,893
Feb 2006..: 277,777

Nov 2006..: 311,586
Dec 2006..: 319,002
Jan 2007..: 318,865
Feb 2007..: 321,976 (Actually up 1% from January, 2007 and up 11.6% from Feb., 2006!)

As MoM points out it isn’t a case of using seasonal or not-seasonal adjustments, because their not-seasonal adjustments show total construction spending down 2.5%! Is it a case of government lying to us to make things look better than they are? After all who but bloggers would actually look at the figures and put a calculator to the numbers?

Construction Spending Economy Mover Mike

Oil Running Higher!

I predicted, here, that oil would not go above $70 a barrel in 2007. Taking a look at todays trading action, it appears that the head and shoulder top worked for just a little while, then formed a head and shoulder bottom and today has broken out by moving to $66 per barrel. The target would be at least the old high of $77.95. Here’s the chart

Oil Mover Mike

The “Spoiling Attack”

If you have read Mover Mike for any time, you know that I believe the U.S. fights wars with good intentions, but politicos get involved and turn the war into a cesspool of ineptitude.

If you are a liberal, you probably believe that too much money goes for defense that could be used for social causes, like education and healthcare, and you have no patience with the sacrifices that must be made to fight a war. What we have experienced instead is

…the United States has consistently encountered strategic stalemate or defeat in particular politico-military operations.

John Maudlin in his Outside the Box has a piece from Stratfor President George Friedman, the premise of which is the U.S. fights wars as “spoiling attack.”

The spoiling attack is an offensive operation; however, its goal is not to defeat the enemy but to disrupt enemy offensives — to, in effect, prevent a defeat by the enemy. The success of the spoiling attack is not measured in term of enemy capitulation, but the degree to which it has forestalled successful enemy operations.

He cites the Korean war, the Vietnam war, Cuba, the Iran containment policy, and the Iraq wars as evidence.

On a pretty arbitrary scale — between Korea (1950-53), Cuba (1960-63), Vietnam (1963-75), Iran (1979-1981) and Iraq (2003-present) — the United States has spent about 27 of the last 55 years engaged in politico-military maneuvers that, at the very least, did not bring obvious success, and frequently brought disaster. Yet, in spite of these disasters, the long-term tendency of American power relative to the rest of the world has been favorable to the United States.

So three questions arise:.
First, does a spoiling attack set us up for an abnormal defeat?. Is it possible that we enter a conflict not really trying to win and it backfires?
Second, is the spoiling attack better than total defeat of the enemy? Which strategy leads to long lasting peace?
Third, what is the next target for a spoling attack? Leaks from Russia suggest that the U.S. is ready to attack Iran with tactical nukes on April 6th, and the campaign would last 24 to 48 hours.

If you are a grunt in any of these conflicts, how does it make you feel to know, if Friedman is right, that you and your buddies were maimed or killed for stalemate or defeat as a goal?

John Maudlin George Friedman Stratfor Spoiling Attack Iraq Iran Mover Mike

Update:

Gina Cobb has an interesting post on the subject titled Shhhh!! Be Ve-wy, Ve-wy Quiet! We Ah We-tweating!

Darlene Hooley is Wrong for Oregon and the U.S.!

Many have speculated about possible Dem candidate for U.S Senate taking on incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.). Ridenbaugh Press is one of those. This blog posted about Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) as one of those possibles, when I said in Peter DeFazio is Wrong for Oregon and the U.S.!

DeFazio, like Hillary, has demonstrated he is a Socialist and an elitist.

Another mentioned is Rep. Darlene Hooley. Is she right for Oregon and the Senate? She recently said to taxpayers “take a hike!”

Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-Ore.) is on the record in support of tax increases that would hit nearly every taxpayer in Oregon. In a series of votes cast this week in the House Budget Committee, Rep. Hooley voted against the extension of the $1,000 per child tax credit, against the extension of marriage penalty relief, against the extension of the state and local tax deduction, and against the extension of the current 15 percent rate on capital gains and dividends.In summary, Rep. Hooley voted NO on the following taxpayer-friendly provisions:

–NO on committing to pass a budget without a tax increase

–NO on extending the $1,000 per child tax credit

–NO on extending marriage penalty relief

–NO on extension of existing marginal income tax cuts

–NO on extension of the 15 percent rate on capital gains and dividend earnings

–NO on elimination of the death tax

–NO on extension of the state and local tax deduction

Oregon Catalyst.com calculates Ore. taxpayers face $2,752 annual tax hike if tax cuts not extended. Darlene Hooley is Wrong for Oregon and the U.S.!

Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-Ore.) Mover Mike

Update:

Captain’s Quarters Ed Morrisey has an article on the subject writing about all the Dems.

Update:


Thompson Not Christian???

Focus on the Family founder James Dobson implies that former Senator Fred Thompson is not a Christian.

“Everyone knows he’s conservative and has come out strongly for the things that the pro-family movement stands for,” (said) Dobson – considered the most politically powerful evangelical figure in the U.S….

“[But] I don’t think he’s a Christian. At least that’s my impression.”

“We use that word – Christian – to refer to people who are evangelical Christians.

The press thinks Dobson’s comments are a devastating blow to Thompson’s political ambitions. How arogant to define “Christian” as just evangelical. It is the evangelicals with their religion in your face that turns off many of any political persuasion; “Born Agains” as many call them with a sneer or a roll of the eyes.

I’m for people who put into practice the teachings of Jesus Christ rather than those who insist on being judgemental. Senator Fred Thompson’s views, as I know them, are just fine with me.

Senator Fred Thompson James Dobson Born Agains Mover Mike

Three In Maupin on March 28th

MAP 1.4 2007/03/28 18:52:59 45.128 -120.927 15.8 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

MAP 1.2 2007/03/28 13:04:28 45.120 -120.926 17.5 14 km ( 9 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

MAP 1.0 2007/03/28 07:53:38 45.123 -120.924 14.9 14 km ( 9 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Maupin Oregon Earthquake Mover Mike

How To Tell If She’s Nice

“She’s a really nice woman, too. She keeps candy on her desk!”

Tags: NYT Anita LeClerc Mary Ann Giordano Mover Mike

American Idol – March 27th

Ok, you’ve been waiting for my take on Americam Idol, so check it out.

Lakisha Jones sang Last Dance – She sang it just like the original and that’s the problem; she is a great imitator!

Chris Sligh sang Every Little Thing She Does Is Magic – it was so memorable, I can’t remember much about it.

Gina Glocksen sang I’ll Stand By You – Wonderful song and she is growing on me

Haley Scarnato sang True Colors

– such a wonderful package, but she sounds like she has never had a Big O. I have heard the same kind of singing at a Miss America pageant!

Phil Stacey sang Every Breath You Take – I actually liked “Cancer Man” this week. I think it was the hat. I loved the song. It was perfect for him.

Melinda Doolittle sang Heaven Knows – Melinda is a consumate professional and I am never disappointed when she sings.

Blake Lewis sang Lovesong – One of two guys that is actually pretty good. Did you notice his hair? It looked much better than past weeks. The singing was a little bit boring.

Jordin Sparks sang Hey Baby – I liked her song last week better than this one, but she keeps growing and she is fun to watch and what a big ol’ smile.

Chris Richardson sang Don’t Speak – another beautiful song and the other guy that can actually sing.

Sanjaya Malakar sang Bath Water – with a big old mohawk made with seven ponytails. He is so bad. He acts scared and forgets words. Please, not the top nine for Sanjaya.

What I’ve missed so far is that performance that just brings the hair up on your arms. A song that soars and demands that you download it. Last season there were several songs by McTata and who could forget Kelly Clarkson? Still waiting!

American Idol AI Haley Scarnato Mover Mike

State of Oregon Geology

The Bulletin in Bend, Oregon has an article titled Small quakes shake near Maupin area
Causes of series of small tremors remain a mystery to researchers by Kate Ramsayer.

Maupin is experiencing a swarm of earthquakes as you know from reading posts on this blog. Ramsayer has several theories for the activity from greater numbers of monitors,

…to the area, which is “full of all sorts of junk that’s been shed off of the Cascades, …like lava flows and gravel and ash layers. But there are very few faults in the Maupin area.

An additional reason could be general movement in the entire state. Geologists believe that the state is rotating clockwise around the Wallowa Mountains. They also see the Klamath area going through streching from east and west and they see Oregon and Washington moving north against Canada with Washington caught in between or not moving as fast as Oregon. We also have faults between Bend and Sisters resulting in the Cascades moving south and the Central Oregon moving north. The state is very dynamic and it is fun to speculate about the changes, but any real changes that can be seen may take thousands of years.

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