Who is Don Hays?

My friend in Bend swears by Don Hays and the Hays Advisory. He says his track record has been excellent for many years. So I was shocked to read his Morning Market Comments of June 04, 2007. (by subscription only at $250 per year. There is a free three-day trial available.) Let me quote Don Hays:

Okay – here’s our strongest belief. You are living in a world when it is inevitable that Democracy will completely envelope the world. We believe the transparency of what Democracy produces in the way of freedom will destroy all methodologies, dictators and religious zealots that try to prevent the evolution.We believe the massive productivity enhancements of the Technology Revolution will make it virtually impossible for inflation to be a problem in our lifetime. The governments of the world will have a constant battle trying to keep inflation up to the desired 1-2%

In the last 18 years the huge digestion of the newly emerging capitalistic economies – as Democracy has gradually spread, has produced the potential of over 2 billion new consumers.

There has never before been a massive new sponge of potential consumers like this one, and corporations everywhere are sitting on tons of cash, and ready to produce goods to satisfy that new hunger. Every person that gets a job in one of those new factories, or immigrates to an old economy and gets a job, becomes a part of this new massive engine of growth. One job, one consumer, and that produces a need for the next job to produce a product for the next new consumer. Geometric growth is a wonderful thing if you are a producer.

Now Don Hays doesn’t agree with anything I’ve written about or believe about our economy or inflation, BUT that’s when you have to pay attention. Just yesterday I read Will the Global Capital Markets Collapse?

Some time ago I had dinner with an old friend of mine. We literally went to kindergarten together, so we can certainly talk freely and bluntly. He’s a hedge fund guy and he made a startling statement. He argued that the entire global capital markets were going to collapse under the weight of rising and irrational debt levels. And he was serious.The president of the European Central Bank essentially said the same thing today.

Investment advice says “buy low and sell high”, and the only way to do that is to beat the crowds. As far as I can tell, Don Hays is standing out there all alone.

Don Hays
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