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Long Bond Could Trade At 4% And Below!

I’ve told you that I use technical analysis to give me a general impression of a stock, bond or commodities. This afternoon I glanced at the $USB, the chart of the 30 year Treasury (
see chart). It startled me to see that the daily $USB has fallen back to the 200-day moving average at 115.

Looking at the
Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO),

The Percentage Price Oscillator is found by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average and then dividing the result by the longer moving average.

it appears that the PPO is about to cross over reulting in a BUY signal. In January, 2008, the $USB went to the highest level since before 1999. Recently, the pullback from 122 to 115, looks like a correction to the main bull market. The chart looks like the rise is ready to resume.

What does all the mean? It means that Treasury Bonds are set to continue higher resulting in lower long yields. It means that interest rates are set to come down a lot! Bonds go up, yields go down.

The lows since since December, 2007 have been 4.26%, then 4.23% and lastly in March, 2008, at 4.17%. We are currently at 4.51%, just off from 4.61%. I could see the long bond trade at 4% and below!

BTW, the Two Year Treasury Yield (
$UST2Y) looks like the rally is over. It could go back and test the 1.35% low set in March. It is currently at 2.29% The Ten Year Treasury Yield (
$UST10Y) also looks like the rally is over . It could test the low yield of 3.34%. It currently is at 3.77%.

What does it all mean? It may mean the economy is weaker than we are being led to believe. It may mean there is a flight to safety. It may mean that the huge flows of capital directed at banks are finding their way into purchases of safe items rather than take a chance on loaning money.

Very Unusual

map 2.3 2008/04/30 06:27:44 45.121N 120.948W 17.3 12 km ( 7 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 2.3 2008/04/29 04:26:44 45.121N 120.939W 19.5 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Back to Back 2.3s!

Maupin Earthquake Mover Mike

The Magic Of Compound Interest

I was checking out some of the other blogs that have been invited to blog for the Forbes.com Business and Finance Blog Network and came across Two Pennies Earned and Amy L. Fontinelle’s
Eight Financial Tips For Young Adults

One of the tips. if you want to have a comfortable and prosperous life is:

5. Start saving for retirement now.

Fontinelle mentions compound interest. It is much easier to understand the magic if you see the power this hoary chart presents. I think it was developed by Richard Russell, who writes Dow Theory Letters many years ago.

As you can see, if you had invested, when you were 19, $2,000 each year in an IRA for only seven years ($14,000), you would have more money at retirement than if you had waited seven years to start. And, as a result of waiting, you would have had to invest 11 times as much to get near the same result.

That’s a huge lesson to learn at 19!

Cascadia Subduction Zone Is The Cause!

My friend Robert Somerville calls my attention to an article in the
that says the San Andreas fault is a victim. It’s the Cascadia Subduction Zone’s fault.

Chris Goldfinger and colleagues at Oregon State University, Corvallis, analysed sediment records from deep sea canyons that stretched back over the last three thousand years, looking for the disturbed strata that are the hallmarks of big earthquakes.

They found evidence that “…the massive Cascadia quakes – eight of which Goldfinger estimates exceeded magnitude 9.0 on the Richter scale – trigger events that top out around magnitude 7.9 along the San Andreas by stress transfer.”

Their evidence also suggests that the Cascadia is 90 years overdue for a “big one”.

Welcome Forbes’ Readers

Welcome! Here’s what you will find at Mover Mike:
I was a stockbroker for almost 30 years so I post about The Economy, The Trade Deficit and the Dollar, Troubled Companies, Precious Metals, Gold, Inflation, and Government Statistics. I like to illustrate my points with charts and graphs

I also post about politics, geology, the global warming hoax, book reviews and current events.

I hope to keep you interested and coming back for your daily “Mover Mike” fix.

Oregon Earthquake???

Did we just experience an EQ at 3:53?

No Partial-Birth Lawsuits Shows Abortion Advocates Lied About Health Exception

April 18 marked the one-year anniversary of the Supreme Court’s ruling in Gonzales v. Carhart, in which it rejected legal challenges to the
Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003.

While opponents of the ban claimed numerous lawsuits would be brought forth to challenge the Supreme Court’s ruling, thus far no challenges have been filed.


Oregon Beach Snow

I don’t recall seeing this much snow at the beach.

Snow made spectacular sights in the winter of 2007 (photo Tiffany Boothe, Seaside Aquarium)

Beach Connection
, covering 180 miles of Oregon coast from Astoria to Florence, has pictures of the beach snow and reports about the impact on tourism.

Maupin Quake

When I started following Maupin quakes, anything above a 2.0M was rare.

map 3.1 2008/04/28 00:39:07 45.129N 120.940W 18.8 12 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.4 2008/04/27 10:34:52 44.985N 121.186W 9.2 20 km (13 mi) SE of Pine Grove, OR

Maupin Earthquake Mover Mike


map 2.2 2008/04/28 19:38:14 45.627N 123.190W 58.8 6 km ( 4 mi) WNW of Banks, OR

Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst

Our weekly vlog/poscast in illegal immigration and border security. In this weeks edition…

As our invaders warm up for next weeks amnesty march we thought we’d take a look at one of the darkest costs of modern immigration: slavery!


100% Preventable! Americans continue to pay the bloody price for open borders, when will the madness stop?

Download for your ipod here.

You can read the entire Mayday demands list here.  (I know it’s hard to read on the screen, as you’ll see it’s quite lengthy!)

Click on image

If you’d like to sponsor a show contact us here.

This has been the Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst. The Blogs For Borders Blogroll is dedicated to American sovereignty, border security and a sane immigration policy.

If you’d like to join find out how right here.

Technorati Tags: illegal immigration, blogs 4 borders, blogs for borders, open borders, vlog, podcast, deportation, mexico, mayday, amnesty, murder, texas, florida, machete, media bias,

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