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It’s Baaack!

Accuweather, surprise, surprise, is predicting SNOW for next weekend!

Thursday, Jan 1 Cold Rain and drizzle possible
Low: 34 °F
High: 40 °F

Friday, Jan 2 Cloudy Cloudy, rain possible; windy
Low: 35 °F
High: 43 °F

Saturday, Jan 3 Cloudy Cloudy with snow possible
Low: 34 °F
High: 43 °F

Sunday, Jan 4 Snow Snow of varying intensity
Low: 22 °F
High: 41 °F

Monday, Jan 5 Snow Colder with periods of snow
Low: 21 °F
High: 31 °F

After five extra days off from the Yellow Bus, on account of snow, if Accuweather is right, Monday Jan 5th, 2009, first day back to school since the holidays, will be a day off!

Lake Yellowstone Webicorder

Here’s the webicorder of Lake Yellowstone. It looks like it gone into fibrillation!

“The Road Taken To Serfdom” From March, 2008

In March of 2008 I posted a piece titled The Road Taken To Serfdom. Partly I was pointing out how supposedly conservative John McCain was mouthing statist ideas and suggesting we were verging on Fascism. I didn’t anticipate the actions by the FED, Treasury and the administration “to use state control over ostensibly private property rather than nationalization” to solve our financial problems. I concluded it was fascist!

In my use of the word “fascism”, I see it used as Ayn Rand wrote about in Atlas Shrugged, an elite who thinks it knows better than the market, an elite of powerful paternalists, an elite that thinks all problems can be solved by using government, an elite that seeks favors from the government to further their own interests without risk of competition.

I tried to define “fascism” and a new book by Jonah Goldberg does a great job in a new book “Liberal Fascism: The Secret History of the American Left, From Mussolini to the Politics of Meaning”.

Looking Back On January, 2008

Back in January I posted about Sears (SHLD). Sears had fallen from $195 to $99 at the time. I commented that the market cap of Sears was $14 Billion about the value of the real estate owned (REO) by the company. Since then Sears fell another $69 with a market cap currently of $4.5 Billion. One analyst believed the REO to be closer to $10 Billion. Either SHLD is very undervalued or the REO estimate is going to be seriously devalued.

So far, Trading the Triangles has given no BUY signal on the monthly chart, although it has fulfilled my downside target.

Maupin And Yellowstone 3+s

MAP 3.6 2008/12/27 15:32:35 45.131N 120.951W 16.4 11 km ( 7 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

More and bigger quakes in Yellowstone!
MAP 2.9 2008/12/28 00:08:46 44.185 -110.307 0.4 73 km ( 45 mi) NE of Alta, WY
MAP 3.2 2008/12/27 22:30:03 44.495 -110.367 0.2 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 3.4 2008/12/27 20:26:27 44.488 -110.365 0.3 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 3.5 2008/12/27 20:17:32 44.481 -110.362 0.7 62 km ( 39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT

The University of Utah Seismograph Stations report a swarm of small earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park.

The university says the quakes of magnitude 3.5 and lower have been occurring beneath Yellowstone Lake, five to nine miles south-southeast of Fishing Bridge, a park landmark. The earthquakes that began on Friday and continued on Saturday intensified during the weekend, and there were reports that people in the Yellowstone Lake area felt the quakes.

The University of Utah says they’ve been in an area of the park where swarms are common.


MAP 2.3 2008/12/27 18:56:35 44.484 -110.367 0.5 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.8 2008/12/27 18:23:07 44.490 -110.369 0.1 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.5 2008/12/27 17:01:07 44.484 -110.367 0.2 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.6 2008/12/27 16:30:53 44.497 -110.368 0.4 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT

Evidence Of Global Warming In Spokane

The Yakima Herald reports

As of midnight Thursday, 45.2 inches had fallen at Spokane International Airport, nearly three inches more than the 42.7 inches recorded in 1996, according to the National Weather Service. Records have been kept since 1881.

Protectionism: Rearing Its Head

Two columnists are writing about protectionism in the last few days, Patrick J. Buchanan and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

Evans-Pritchard writes

We are advancing to the political stage of this global train wreck. Regimes are being tested. Those relying on perma-boom to mask a lack of democratic or ancestral legitimacy may try to gain time by the usual methods: trade barriers, sabre-rattling, and barbed wire.

Russia has experienced a disaterious fall in the price oil and is tightening its control over the economy and the population. ” It has imposed import tariffs of 30pc on cars, 15pc on farm kit, and 95pc on poultry (above quota levels).” It is also cracking down on journalists and subjecting more citizens to laws concerning treason. Because of rioting in a number of cities, “Yevgeny Kiseloyov at the Moscow Times said it feels eerily like December 1 1934 when Stalin unveiled his “Enemies of the People” law, kicking off the Great Terror.”

China is scared to death that the slump in exports and the closing of factories causing widespread layoffs will lead to massive disobedience. Here, in the U.S. Democrats will be putting intense pressure on China to raise the value of the Yuan, which will help our exports, but hurt China.

Buchanan writes that President Bush is abandoning his free trade policies and becoming a protectionist with his bailout of the big three auto makers.

Thus did Bush concede that protectionism, if a critical U.S. industry is in peril, must trump free-trade ideology. For in offering the bailout to GM, Ford and Chrysler, Bush, by omission, excluded BMW, Mercedes, Honda, Toyota, Nissan and Hyundai — though all operate auto plants here in the United States and all are feeling the same sales slump.
Awfully late in the game, Bush seems to have awakened to an ancient reality. When the tough times come, nations protect their own interests first, free trade be damned.

Expect more conflict between nations as the world works off debt and overcapacity in manufacturing and consumers shift from spending to saving.

Football Upset 12/23

#9 Boise State 16, #11 TCU 17

OSU Reports on Maupin Quakes

Click to enlarge

Oregon State University has released a report on the Maupin quakes. Above is a chart of the number of quakes that have taken place near Maupin, Oregon. The report from Jochen Braunmiller, a research associate in OSU’s College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences reports in part:

A geologic map shows a small fault line near the region where most of the quakes have occurred, though it runs in a direction that doesn’t necessarily mirror the pattern of recorded earthquakes. However, Braunmiller pointed out, the exact origin of the earthquakes can be difficult to pinpoint.

Possible explanations for the quakes vary, scientists say. They could be associated with minor magma-related activity or triggered by fluid movement within the Earth’s crust. Braunmiller said it’s also possible that the seismic activity is an extension of disturbances along the Eastern California Shear Zone that runs roughly parallel to the San Andreas Fault, which is creeping northward at a faster rate than the shear zone, creating geologic pressure that may extend into Oregon.

A similar swarm of earthquakes, though some of them larger, has been taking place in Reno, which also is along the Eastern California Shear Zone. Those quakes are much shallower – about two miles below the surface compared to the 10 mile-deep Maupin events.

We continue to monitor the events in Maupin with a great deal of curiosity.

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