More About Oil From TedBits

I just published a post here about crude oil and the price breaking out of a rising wedge. Let’s step back and look at the BIG picture of oil over the last four years. That little rising wedge is nothing compared to the trading of the last four years. We could be looking at $150 oil and $6 or more for gasoline at the pump. The following is from TedBits free newsletter:

UNRELIABLE SUPPLY

The unrest unfolding in the Middle East has far more implications for the price of energy than can be seen in the mild breakout of recent TRADING ranges actually portends an explosive move in energy markets.  A rising wedge can be clearly seen and OIL is COILED for an explosive move higher.  Take a look at this weekly chart formation:


2011             2012                  2013                  2014                  2015

This pattern has been under construction for almost 4 ½ years and it is a rising wedge.  When we move through the high trend line priced should quickly move $20 dollars a barrel and ultimately should move at least 40 dollars higher.  During the time it was being formed we have seen shale oil production in the US skyrocket, while production out of OPEC members Libya, Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela (don’t leave Mexico out where production has declined by over 1 million barrels a day) tumbling with losses of production outpacing the increases.  Now Oil production looks set to tumble in Iraq as it breaks apart before our eyes.  The IEA expects Oil consumption is set to rise about 6.58 million barrels a day by 2018, with most of the additional supply forecast to come out of North America and Iraq.  Forecasted supply and demand growth per year:

Do you really think any investment is going to enter Iraq?  Do you think the ISIS will attack the oil fields of their foes?  Do you think instability or stability will grow in the Middle East?  My bet is on INSTABILITY!  Do you think this will be good for economic growth?

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