Mover Mike

Ok, I'm buying the book, An Army of Davids by Glenn Reynolds, sight unseen.

There was a time in the not-too-distant past when large companies and powerful governments reigned supreme over the little guy. But new technologies are empowering individuals like never before, and the Davids of the world-the amateur journalists, musicians, and small businessmen and women-are suddenly making a huge economic and social impact. In Army of Davids, author Glenn Reynolds, the man behind the immensely popular Instapundit.com, provides an in-depth, big-picture point-of-view for a world where the small guys matter more and more. Reynolds explores the birth and growth of the individual's surprisingly strong influence in: arts and entertainment, anti-terrorism, nanotech and space research, and much more. The balance of power between the individual and the organization is finally evening out. And it's high time the Goliaths of the world pay attention, because, as this book proves, an army of Davids is on the rise.

I would guess this book will be required reading as was Blog by Hugh Hewitt.

An Army of Davids Glenn Reynolds Mover Mike

From Townhall.com, Bush is kicking away his base by Phyllis Schlafly. Republcans are 80-20 against the guest worker program supported by President Bush. Schlafly says that the high pressure tactics by the president and his men for a guest worker program caused a fight, and allowed no debate on the resolution at the Republican National Committee meeting in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 19-20th.

...forecasts the sort of intimidation we can anticipate in the upcoming Senate debate about Bush's guest worker plan.

Didn't countries in the Middle East have a guest worker policy that has now turned on them?

Phyllis Schlafly guest worker program Mover Mike

From Bloomberg, The Worst News Wasn't Even in the GDP Report: by Caroline Baum

Not only was the increase in real gross domestic product the smallest in three years, but the composition wasn't so hot either. Inventories added 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth, which means that final demand (GDP minus inventories) fell for the first time since the first quarter of 2002. (emphasis added)

That news combined with The Philly Index release makes it look like Dr. Kurt Richebächer (The Mess That Greenspan Made) was right about slow or no growth in the economy, contrary to the "Bubblespeak" on CNBC: of Jan 19th

The Philly Fed diffusion index fell to 3.3 in January from 10.9 in December. This is the lowest reading since last June. The index is only slightly above zero, which indicates expansion. The decline was unexpected. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 12.0.

When Richebächer saw the +1.1% GDP number he slammed his fist on the table and said,

"I knew it. They cheat ... they rig up the calculations and still they can't come up with a decent number. The recovery has totally failed. This latest number is just more evidence."

We have seen the last rate hike by the FED!

Caroline Baum Dr. Kurt Richebächer economy

Update: That prediction didn't last long: The WSJ reports

The Fed raised the federal-funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.5% in Greenspan's final meeting as chairman, and deleted its longstanding reference to the likelihood of "measured" rate increases.

It's Tuesday, time for Carnival of Liberty 30. Mover Mike is proud to be a member of Life, Liberty, Property and host of this 30th carnival. Life, Liberty, Property is a forum to showcase writing on individual liberty. The following submissions focus on how it has been restricted, or how it is growing, or some other facet of individual liberty.

The revolution begins on Ken Lays web site. by Steven Silvers at Scatter Box.

Arguing that nothing illegal happened at Enron, citizen Ken Lay’s personal web site promotes the notion that the corrupt, abusive federal government – and not he – is going on trial.

So much for free speech and association by Gullyborg at Resistance is Futile.

New Oregon law makes it harder for independents to get on the ballot.

Suldog For State Rep by Jim "Suldog" Sullivan at Suldog-O-Rama.

This is part one of a seven-parter. It is a history of my run for state representative in Massachusetts, 1992.

Might online-game virtual currencies become a viable alternative currency? by David Gross at The Picket Line.

A dream of the libertarian, anarchist and tax resister fringe is a replacement for government money. But most proposed alternative currencies haven't really taken off. Increasingly, though, virtual assets purchased or won in the course of massively multiplayer on-line games are being traded for real-world currency (and more recently, game-world currency is being used to buy real-world products). Are virtual, game-world economies going to succeed where Time Dollars, labor notes, and PayPal have not? (And what are the tax implications?)

Rape, or Just Wrong? by Tom Wright at The Wrightwing.

Putting on my Nomex suit and kevlar armour

(is it rape when a female teacher has sex with an underage boy?)

How Far is Too Far? by Stephen Littau at Fearless Philosophy for Free Minds.

Matt Welch over at ReasonOnline has a rather thought-provoking quiz asking pro-war Libertarians the question: “How far are you willing to go to win the War on Terror?” Being a pro-war Libertarian, I thought these questions deserved some thoughtful answers.

The New Saudi Pioneer by mensa barbie at Mensa Barbie Welcomes You.

"We can help to put an end to oppression (anywhere in the world) by speaking up! This is essential, in parts of the globe where those lack the safety to do so, on their own."

Social Security Part D by Brad Warbiany at The Unrepentant Individual.

The Bush plan to “privatize” Social Security won’t get the government out of our retirement planning, it will push them deeper and deeper into it. Considering how well they’ve done with most of their other programs, I don’t want that to happen.

Two "takes" on the news from BB&T Corp.:
BB&T Stands Up For Property Rights by Doug Mataconis at Below The Beltway.

From Tyler Cowen at The Volokh Conspiracy, who asks the question Is Atlas Shrugging?, comes news of an apparent ally for property owners in the fight against developers and local governments who use eminent domain for private benefit.

Taking a Stand Against Kelo by The MaryHunter at TMH's Bacon Bits.

The Kelo decision has filled Americans with fear and anger. So imagine my glee when I saw this headline: "BB&T opposes eminent domain." This DC area bank should be praised for taking a bold and principled stand.

Riviera Beach in Palm Beach County by Mike Landfair at Mover Mike.

Here the homeowners benefit and the threat of eminent domain isn't used.

Freezing Point by Jamie K at The Sharpener.

Forget the flap about Google.cn for a bit. In China, the main media controversy right now is the closure of Freezing Point, a popular weekly supplement of the China Youth Daily, on the orders of individuals in the Central Propaganda Department.

Calif. Says Secondhand Smoke a Pollutant by Don Melson at Searchlight Crusade.

Unlike many confused libertarians, I welcome this.

Vote early and often from the cemetery by David Gerstman at Soccer Dad.

...the Voter Rights Protection Act is an attempt to paint modern Republicans as latter day George Wallaces.

The Radical Libertarian: The relationship between anarchy and capitalism by Francois Tremblay at The Radical Libertarian.

U.S. government in technical default by Michael Hampton at Homeland Security or Homeland Stupidity.

Last week the U.S. government’s debt exceeded the debt ceiling of $8.18 trillion, passing $8.19 trillion as of Thursday, putting the government in technical default.

Why should you need the government's permission? by Perry Eidelbus at Eidelblog.

Why should the government have the power to deny you medicine?

Google, Big Brother, and paranoia by Richard G. Combs at Combs Spouts Off.
Google put up a stronger defense against the US effort at getting information than they did fighting China's censorship.

The Future of Liberty by Brad Warbiany at The Unrepentant Individual.
For those of us who decry the size of government and think it's futile to change its character, Warbiany says

The internet, my friends, is the answer.

Libertarian “socially responsible” business practices by David Gross at The Picket Line.

Some libertarian-minded folks scoff at “socially responsible” business practices — “the social responsibility of business is to increase its profits,” Milton Friedman wrote — but what will they think about a business that takes a libertarian view of social responsibility that goes beyond the profit motive?

An Easy Call by Doug Mataconis at Below the Beltway.

A libertarian Republican takes a look at the proposed amendment to Virginia's Constitution to ban gay marriage.

The right to refuse to work means you should be fired by Perry Eidelbus at Eidelblog.

What happens when government tries to protect employees' "right to conscience"? A big headache that couldn't be cured by all the pharmacists in the world giving you aspirin.

That's it for this week. Good reading! Next week, February 7, Carnival of Liberty 31 will be hosted by Louisiana Libertarian.

Carnival of Liberty Life Liberty Property Mover Mike

Update:

UN unveils plan to release untapped wealth of...$7 trillion (and solve the world's problems at a stroke)

Imagine the arrogance to think these problems could be solved "at a stroke" and half of the $7 Trillion comes from

...an international market to trade pollution permits that would encourage rich countries (meaning the US) to cut pollution and hit their targets under the Kyoto protocol.

But - and the UN admits it is a big "but" - the US would have to sign up to Kyoto and carbon trading to achieve the $3.64 Trillion that it believes the system would deliver over time.

A second major amount "of untapped wealth" of $2.9 Trillion could be unlocked by

SPECULATIVE INVESTORS:

Poor countries suffer most from swings in investment tastes by the big global investors that means money can leave as soon as it arrives.

SOLUTION: Enable countries to buy "insurance policies" against big swings in growth that would ensure that they did not have to cut public spending every time. In 1997 it wreaked havoc across South-east Asia.

SAVING: $2.9 Trillion

Another major amount "of untapped wealth":

Once great nations such as Brazil and Argentina were reduced to the status of beggars after poor economic policy combined with debts with national and international lenders.

SOLUTION: A system to enable countries to take loans linked to their average economic growth rate to ensure that they do not have to cut public spending to raise the money to borrow needed funds during the hard times.

SAVING: $600 Billion

There is no untapped wealth here! This scheme involves extorting money from the rich countries (USA) and piling up more debt, so they do not have to cut public spending. You may say "it will never happen", but these people at Davos, who believe

the nation-state is an old-fashioned concept that has no role to play in a modern globalised world

have a 20 year time frame and it is hard to maintain vigilence for all that time. Then there is the moderate who will compromise our Constitution away.

UN Davos Mover Mike

Update: See Michelle Malkin for a look at the star-studded "bloviating" attendees along with "bloviator" William Jefferson Clinton.

From the Deseret Morning News January 28, 2006, BYU professor's group accuses U.S. officials of lying about 9/11

Last fall, Brigham Young University physics professor Steven E. Jones charged that the World Trade Center collapsed because of “pre-positioned explosives”. Now other scholars and academics have joined him in raising the stakes

"We believe that senior government officials have covered up crucial facts about what really happened on 9/11," the group says in a statement released Friday announcing its formation. "We believe these events may have been orchestrated by the administration in order to manipulate the American people into supporting policies at home and abroad."

Steven E. Jones WTCa Mover Mike

From Carl Limbacher at NewsMax, Ready For $262-a-Barrel Oil?

According to Fortune magazine's Nelson Schwartz, two of the world's most successful investors say oil will be in short supply in the coming months.

One of them, Hermitage Capital's Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel.

What's the one thing that could send prices to $262? The fall of the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia! (For me, I get amused by exact numbers like $262. If it only goes to $261, are they wrong? How about $262.50? It is hard enough to predict the future without an exact number like $262!)

Oil Bill Browder Saudi Arabia Mover Mike

On Dec 8th, in Still Problems With Eminent Domain, I wrote about the threat by city officials to use their power of eminent domain in Riviera Beach in Palm Beach County to take property from up to 6,000 residents to develop a new marina.

Four-term Mayor Michael Brown, who grew up here, said the plan offers a singular shot at money, stability and self-esteem, the rebirth of a faded town that lost its way decades ago.

"I am using the tools available to me to try to get more jobs and build our tax base," he said. "I am trying to take our most valuable property and leverage it to benefit the entire city."

You will be happy to know that developers are offering 130% of appraised value to owners. Some have received up to 3 times appraised value and the city has not had to exercise its power.

See that's the way it's supposed to work. The developer knows he is going to have to pay up and he factors that in to his developing costs. He will not go ahead if it doesn't pencil.

It is not the job of the mayor to rob from the few to benefit the many.

Hat tip to Ogre's Politics and Views Riviera Beach Eminent Domain Mover Mike

Oprah feels duped. James Frey of A Million Little Pieces says Lilly, the girl he was in love with, didn't hang herself, but committed suicide by slashing her wrists. Frey can't recall if the dentist really gave him two root canals without novocaine. Yet he calls the book a memoir.

"All the way through the book I altered details about every one of the characters," Frey said, to disguise true identities.

[...]

Frey said he had developed an image of himself for the book as "being tougher than I was, badder than I was" as a "coping mechanism."

In my review of the book I said

It's the story of a young man and the horror he went through before arriving at an alcohol and drug treatment center. It's the story of getting sober. It's the story of his parents facing the truth about their son and the son taking responsibility for his actions. The writing is honest and comes from the heart. The story may make you scream at a society that loses so many to drugs and alcohol.

Presidents have written their memoirs after leaving office and I know they write their stories to place themselves in the best historical light. They selectively choose, adding and subtracting. Is Frey any different?

Recently NM Gov. Richardson came clean about his baseball career. His bio listed him as a top baseball draft choice. Didn't happen! We all carry around stories of our exploits that are bigger than life and we bury those things that are better left unexamined.

I have heard stories worse than Frey's. I have heard men and women talk about living in card board boxes, about driving drunk and killing a child, about selling their bodies or their child's body for a fix. I have heard stories of drinking at a young age and immediately getting addicted and I have heard stories about massive quantities of alcohol injested. I have heard drunk-a-logs from a recovering alcoholic that have grown over time to gain status among "the real alkies". Who cares! Frey was a drunk and a drug addict and he recovered. He doesn't believe in the 12-steps, so he was a "dry drunk" just holding on! Now he can get on with his eduacation:

10 Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it.

11 Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God, as we understood Him, praying only for knowledge of His will for us and the power to carry that out.

12 Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to alcoholics, and to practice these principles in all our affairs.

They say it's the secrets we carry that will drive us back to the bottle. He should thank God or his higher power that this secret is out.

It still was a damn good book, that I shed tears over and says to us all "there but for the Grace of God".

James Frey Oprah Mover Mike

Coming Tuesday is Carnival of Liberty #30, a showcase of postings on the broad topic of individual liberty brought to you by the Life, Liberty, Property community of bloggers.

It's a forum to showcase writing on individual liberty. Whether your writing focuses on how it has been restricted, or how it is growing, or some other facet of individual liberty, it's something we want to showcase and expose to a wider audience.

Mover Mike is hosting this week's carnival, so send in your pontifications to carnivalofliberty@gmail.com.

Grandfather Mountain in North Carolina experienced wind gusts of 200 MPH on Wednesday, breaking the old record of 195.5 set in 1997.

The winds were created by a strong storm system over the Northeast. That system pumped chilly air into the Carolinas and the rest of the eastern United States, allowing temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 20's this morning. The low at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport today was 23 degrees, second-coldest this month behind a 22-degree reading Jan. 7.

Grandfather Mountain is about 100 miles from Charlotte.

The strongest wind in U.S. history was a 231 mph gust measured in 1934 at Mount Washington, N.H.

Grandfather Mountain Mover Mike

I received an email from Joel Rosenberg, author of The Ezekiel Option and The Last Days regarding the election in Palestine. Rosenberg urges Pres. Bush to offer three NOs!

NO RECOGNITION -- The United States must refuse to recognize the legitimacy of a Hamas-controlled Palestinian government unless and until Hamas and all its members and factions renounce the use of political violence of all kinds; recognize Israel's right to exist and live in peace; and acts to insure the fundamental right of all Christians, Jews and Muslims in the region to practice their politics and their faith without fear of persecution and intimidation.

NO NEGOTIATIONS -- The United States should declare an end to all negotiations with a Hamas-controlled Palestinian government, unless and until the previous conditions are met. No more shuttle diplomacy. No more trips by the Secretary of State or other top officials to Ramallah or Gaza. No more Palestinians officials invited to the White House or State Department. Period.

NO FUNDING -- In his 2005 State of the Union address, President Bush called for some $350 million in new aid for the Palestinian Authority. In October, $50 million was transferred to the PA. Not one more dime. All aid should be frozen and all U.S. aid workers in the West Bank and Gaza should be withdrawn. Better yet, the U.S. should redirect Palestinian aid to the Israelis to finish the security fence more quickly and thus prevent more innocent Israelis and Americans from being killed by Hamas suicide bombing attacks, of which there have been 60 in recent years.

President Bush, in a proud moment for the US said Thursday

...that Hamas cannot be partner for Middle East peacemaking without renouncing violence, reiterated that the United States will not deal with Palestinian leaders who do not recognize Israel's right to exist.

President Bush Joel Rosenberg Hamas Mover Mike

After posting about "eminent domain", here comes an email from the Castle Coalition announcing their new website: www.CastleCoalition.org A new feature is an interactive map of the US. You can click on a state and find out what is going on regarding the use of eminent domain. Lo and behold, I clicked on Oregon and found that we have a case pending in Hillsboro.

The City of Hillsboro has teamed up with private developer Specht Development to build a new, $33.7 million civic center. Part of the facility will serve as City Hall, but most of the planned five-story development consists of residences and offices, with retail shops and other businesses occupying the ground floor and street-level storefronts. The developer and the City will jointly own the civic center, while the developer will manage the 113 affordable-rate apartments and 27 market-rate apartment units, as well as the commercial space. In order to gain ownership of a choice site in the middle of the Hillsboro business district, the City would have to remove the two stable, thriving businesses that already operate there. Terrance Hall owns the building from which he runs a law office, while the Christian Science Reading Room occupies the building next door.1

In October 2001, the City Council was set to condemn both properties, but decided at the last minute to delay the resolution after both owners vowed to challenge the takings. Among the deficiencies in the City’s development plan was that the City did not even bother to do a feasibility study looking at the need for the residential, retail and office space in the development. Also, the City made no formal offers to negotiate with either owner before threatening condemnation and made no provision to provide space in the new civic center for occupancy by existing businesses.2

In September 2002, the City Council finally voted to begin eminent domain proceedings. Both Terrance Hall and the Christian Scientists plan to take the City to court to protect their right to stay put.3

1. “Community Snapshot; Owners Argue Against Taking Properties for New City Hall,” The Oregonian (Portland, OR), Oct. 4, 2001, at B2.
2. William E. Dunn, “My Turn; Condemnation for City Building Bad Policy,” The Oregonian (Portland, OR), Oct. 11, 2001, at West Zones 13.
3. David R. Anderson, “Hillsboro Negotiates Deal to Build Civic Center,” The Oregonian (Portland, OR), Sept. 4, 2002, at C2.

Is this just plain arrogance! Imagine no feasiblity study and "no formal offers to negotiate". To hell with the property owner, let's just seize it!

Hillsboro, OR eminent domain Mover Mike

Update: RoguePundit reports June 30, 2005:

The Civic Center has since been built and occupied. Hall Law Firm has moved. (With the construction of the new Hillsboro Civic Center, the firm moved three blocks to the east to 400 East Main Street, remaining in close proximity to the courthouse.) and the condemnation of the Christian Science Reading Room was cited in an amicus brief to the Supreme Court in support of Kelo.

Really! That's all it takes.

BB&T Corp., the second-biggest bank in the Washington area, said yesterday that it will not lend money to developers who plan to build commercial projects on land taken from private citizens through the power of eminent domain.

"The idea that a citizen's property can be taken by the government solely for private use is extremely misguided; in fact, it's just plain wrong," said John Allison, the bank's chairman and chief executive officer.

Congratulations BB&T for that stand.

Hopefully, many others will follow suit and recognize that this is not the way business should be done in America.

BB&T Corp. Eminent Domain Mover Mike

Update: Captain's Quarters has some extensive comments on BB & T

I just got some good news. No it's not about GEICO! It's a new CNNGallup poll:

Most voters now say there's no way they'd vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton if she runs for president in 2008 - while just 16 percent are firmly in her camp, a stunning new poll shows.

Hillary Clinton Politics Mover Mike

On November 10th in Let's Just Grandfather It!, I wrote

I didn't know it then, but on August 25th, when I wrote about "naked shorting" and the problems of Fails to Deliver (FTDs), I would be revisiting the subject again in regards to Refco.

Now The Street.com has once again brought up the subject of REFCO and "PIPES" and Sedona and naked shorting in regards to Bawag, the bank that loaned Bennett $420 Million to pay off his debt to REFCO in Bawag: Austria's Master Plumber By Matthew Goldstein

But there's another side to Bawag's relationship with the fallen brokerage. All four hedge funds affiliated with Bawag were once customers of Refco, and Refco helped each resell some of the cut-rate shares they acquired in PIPEs deals. Two former Refco brokers who worked closely with the Bawag funds are being investigated by securities regulators on allegations they engaged in manipulative trading on behalf of another entity.

[...]

Critics say PIPEs are particularly susceptible to abuse by unscrupulous short-sellers -- traders who place market bets that a stock will decline in price -- because they usually involve the sale of stock at discounted prices. The stock of a company announcing a PIPEs deal almost always declines as the market adjusts to the influx of new shares and the likelihood that they will be sold for a quick profit.

[...]

One thing regulators are looking for are instances in which an investor learned of a pending PIPEs deal and shorted the issuer's shares before it was publicly announced. Unlike the sale of discounted shares, this practice is flatly illegal, and it has resulted in enforcement actions over the last two years.

It's the shorting of shares that is the problem. If you sell short shares you do not own, you need to borrow those shares. You need help to sell shares if they are not borrowed, and you need help by the brokerage firm to avoid delivery problems, thus naked shorts and "fails to deliver". REFCO and now it appears Bawag, were up to their eyeballs in the stuff.

REFCO Bawag Naked Shorts Fails to Deliver Mover Mike

Man, I love Joel Stein of the LA Times today. Finally some honesty! He says

I DON'T SUPPORT our troops.

[...]

But I'm not for the war. And being against the war and saying you support the troops is one of the wussiest positions the pacifists have ever taken — and they're wussy by definition. It's as if the one lesson they took away from Vietnam wasn't to avoid foreign conflicts with no pressing national interest but to remember to throw a parade afterward.(emphasis added)

[...]

Besides, those little yellow ribbons aren't really for the troops. They need body armor, shorter stays and a USO show by the cast of "Laguna Beach."

The real purpose of those ribbons is to ease some of the guilt we feel for voting to send them to war and then making absolutely no sacrifices other than enduring two Wolf Blitzer shows a day. Though there should be a ribbon for that.

In I Support Our Troops! Period!, I said

Another thing wrong with "I support our troops, but not the war!" That's BS! War is hell! Accidents happen in war, civilians get killed. Troops who have seen their buddies killed or dragged through the streets can go too far in retaliation. You (who support our troops) are the first to turn on our own. If you must go to war, you want the thing surgical, clean and no body bags. However, you have no morality. You believe the ends justify the means, but you will do anything to avoid the consequences of your actions when things go wrong.

I applaud Stein's honesty! The liberals could learn from him. Hillary instead of triangulation, tell us you are a socialist, tell us you believe in using the IRS to keep your enemies in line, tell us how you really feel about the war on terror and what we should do. Stand and fight on your beliefs!

Joel Stein Iraq Hillary Clinton Mover Mike

Update: Michelle Malkin

You want loathsome? I nominate LA Times columnist Joel Stein

Update: Hugh Hewitt interviews Joel Stein

Update: Mandelinople

Did anyone seriously believe that those who oppsosed (sic) the war really "supported the troops".

Update: The Glttering Eye in Portrait of the journalist as a young man quotes G.K. Chesterton:

“The soldier does not kill because he hates what is in front of him but because he loves what is behind him.”.

I was reminded about something I wrote about Copper, here, here and here, when I saw that copper was trading at $2.15 $2.23. Copper Rises to a Record $4,648 a Metric Ton in London Trading

On Nov. 25, 2005, The Wash. Post said

Liu (Qibing) began betting on a drop in the copper price this past spring, when China's central bank was preventing state banks from lending to real estate developers to prevent inflation. He figured the policy would continue, keeping the clamps on development and limiting the demand for copper. However, under pressure from local governments demanding development, the central bank again turned on the lending taps. A new wave of construction commenced, and with it a surge of demand for copper for wiring in a country that now absorbs roughly one-fifth of the worldwide supply. The price has risen by roughly one-third this year.

[...]

In July and August, when the price was at about $3,300 per ton, Liu agreed to sell roughly 130,000 tons for delivery in December, according to China Daily. This week, copper for delivery in December was trading above $4,200 per ton. Total losses have previously been estimated at $60 million to $200 million.

Some of the experts, when I first wrote about the short position, said their was a surplus of copper and it would soon drop back to $1 a pound. If Liu is still alive, he is still waiting!

Copper China Mover Mike

Update:

METALS BOOM PERSISTS

Tuesday, February 07, 2006 - FreeMarketNews.com

Copper set new record highs above $5,000 a tonne on Tuesday...

At the Weather Wars web site is this picture:

Wickedly deep Japanese Snows this winter...

Then the article that follows claims we are at a "tipping point" with a vast expanse of western Sibera, the size of France and Germany combined, undergoing an unprecedented thaw. Over the next 100 years it is estimated that this primarily frozen peat bog will release 700 Million tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere each year, roughly the same amount that is released annually from the world's wetlands and agriculture. This area has not thawed in 11,000 years. Yes, Siberian thawing has truly massive implications for our weather. However, the article then makes the jump to say it is the fault of humans and specifically the US.

It is pretty hard to take these claims sewriously when we see the picture of Japan and read the headline:

A glacial chill claimed more lives in across Eastern Europe, forcing schools to shut and disrupting public transport as cold cracked rail lines.

I don't deny that there may be global warming, however the amount of energy directed at the earth by the increased sunspot activity in the last few years, IMO dwarfs anything man is doing.

Global Warming Siberia Mover Mike

James G. Zumwalt of the Washington Times has an interesting story, Solving the Pueblo mystery. The USS Pueblo was an intelligence vessel that was seized off the coast of N. Korea in International waters. It happened Jan. 23, 1968, 38 years ago today.

The USS Pueblo followed the North Korean vessels as ordered, but then stopped immediately outside North Korean waters. She was again fired upon, and a US sailor, Seaman Duane Hodges, was killed. She was boarded by men from a torpedo boat and a sub chaser. Crew members had their hands tied, were blindfolded, beaten, and prodded with bayonets

the remaining 82 (crew members) spent 11 months in a prison camp before being released. The Pueblo remains in North Korea -- a trophy for Pyongyang and a thorn in the side for the United States.

(Navy Cmdr. Lloyd "Pete") Bucher, who was wounded when the Pueblo was shelled, was beaten and tortured into signing a confession. During their captivity, crew members said, they were beaten with pieces of lumber, burned on radiators and had their teeth kicked out by North Korean soldiers.

Zumwalt gives a possible answer as to why the ship was seized.

I was in the Army Reserves at the time. We were very nervous that our unit of grunts, 11 Bravos, would be called up and sent to Vietnam or, God forbid, Korea. We had cause for concern. My buddy's brother-in-law, in the Air Force Reserve was called up and spent the next year in S Korea.

It's different today. Whether Army Reserves or National Guard, you pretty much know you'll be called sometime during your hitch. With that in mind, it should be a priority that active reservists are equipped with the same materiel as RAs. Our unit sure wasn't. I spent the first few days at Ft Lewis in the winter with no fatigue jacket.

USS Pueblo Duane Hodges Mover Mike

Hat tip to Phin's Blog. The French have a wonderful way of watching the nightly news: who cares about Iran, the USD, inflation when there is Mélissa Theuriau!

I came across BellaCiao and this piece in Notepad's post:

Point #3 Bank Of America and Compass Bank managers (probably all other U.S. banks too) have been instructing their employees in the last few weeks on how to respond to customer demands in the event of a collapse of the U.S. economy - specifically telling the employees that only agents from the Department Of Homeland Security will have authority to decide what belongings customers may have from their safe deposit boxes - and that precious metals and other valuables will not be released to U.S. citizens. The bank employees have been strictly prohibited from revealing the banks’ new "guidelines" to anyone. (however, employees have been talking to friends and family)

The next time you visit your bank, ask them about it - then ask yourself, why is this information being kept secret from customers and the public - what’s really going on?

Curious, I googled Bank of America, Compass Bank, Homeland Security and safe deposit boxes. Nothing! So I asked Notepad for source material and this was the response:

REGARDING BANK OF AMERICA & COMPASS BANK INSTRUCTIONS

by notepad

While all the other points I mentioned in this post are fairly well documented and discussed elsewhere on the Internet, the bank information I reported is not. This information is from my own experience and research. I discovered the disturbing news quite by accident - and by virtue of its importance, I decided to post my findings here and on a few other forums.

What did I hear?

A family member from Irvine, CA (who’s a branch manager at Bank of America) told us two weeks ago that her bank held a "workshop" where the last two days were dedicated to discussing their bank’s new security measures. During these last two days, the workshop included members from the Homeland Security Office who instructed them on how to field calls from customers and what they are to tell them in the event of a national disaster. She said they were told how only agents from Homeland Security (during such an event) would be in charge of opening safe deposit boxes and determining what items would be given to bank customers.

At this point they were told that no weapons, cash, gold, or silver will be allowed to leave the bank - only various paperwork will be given to its owners. After discussing the matter with them at length, she and the other employees were then told not to discuss the subject with anyone.

The family member has since given her notice to quit the bank.

I found the news alarming and decided to find out more myself. On a trip to my bank here in Houston, I remarked to a young bank employee (who’s new there), "well I guess you’ve been told all that stuff by the manager and the Homeland Security about what to tell your customers" - and to my amazement, the young woman came right out and said yes she’d been through all that, then whispered to me across the counter, "but we’re not supposed to talk about - I could lose my job."

Why haven’t you heard more about this?

First of all, since maybe only banks’ upper management is privy to the new "rules", the information doesn’t trickle down so easily.

Also keep in mind that employees have been told NOT to say anything about this, that it’s a matter of National Security (with an allusion toward arrest if they do). They face possibly losing their job too. Another reason is that bank employees may not think it’s important, or they believe they’re a unique part of the effort towards curtailing "terrorism" and helping America’s internal defenses.

It is also important to realize that not everyone’s a writer, or Internet savvy - even if the employees moved beyond their banks’ warnings & constraints, most people don’t know how to get their experience published on the Web in the public domain - it’s a mystery they are not familiar with so you never hear their story.

How to get the information yourself:

Visit your bank, ask a few well-worded questions, being careful not to arouse suspicion - if that doesn’t work, talk to friends and other family members - maybe they’ve heard something - or as a last resort, just point blank call the bank manager in private and demand to know what’s all this business with the Homeland Security deciding what I can have from my safe deposit box - tell me now or I’ll close my account today.

I’ll bet if you put forth the effort you’ll get the answers you want.

What should you do with this information?

I’m not trying to "scare" anyone - just providing some news I think is relevant to Americans. Each must find his way through this dark forest - you will do with this information what best suits you and your loved ones - me personally, I see this as another indicator of how the criminals in charge over our lives intend to fleece U.S. citizens completely then dispose of them as only refuse.

Be prepared.

Moral: Don't store your emergency money or gold in your safe deposit box!

safe deposit boxes Homeland Security Gold

There is a battle going on this morning. We have a "Dead Cat" bounce in the DJIA, the USD is down big to 1.2276 Euro and gold is flitting up and down like a butterfly.

In addition, the war with Iran and/or Syria talk is getting more strident.

Shades of The Ezekiel Option

A rumble of alarm went through the hall when Israel`s annual Herzliya security conference was told Sunday that any diplomatic settlement to halt Iran`s nuclear development plans would probably have to include an Israeli commitment to a nuclear-free Middle East (emphasis added).

See Mover Mike Book Review: The Ezekiel Option

Update: Some more rational discussion of an attack on Iran:

Why the West will attack Iran By Spengler

Washington will initiate military action against Iran only with extreme reluctance, but it will do so nonetheless, except in the extremely unlikely event that Ahmedinejad were to stand down. Rather than a legacy of prosperity and democracy in the Middle East, the administration of US President George W Bush will exit with an economy weakened by higher oil prices and chaos on the ground in Iraq and elsewhere. But it really has no other options, except to let a nuclear-armed spoiler loose in the oil corridor. We have begun the third act of the tragedy that started on September 11, 2001, and I see no way to prevent it from proceeding.

And even the NYT, Why Not a Strike on Iran?"

Could we do it?" one administration official who was deeply involved in planning the Iraq invasion said recently. "Sure. Could we manage the aftermath? I doubt it."

Similar fears, he said, gave President Bill Clinton pause about launching a strike on North Korea in 1994. Later that year he reached an accord for a freeze on the North's nuclear production facilities. But in 2003 everything unfroze, and now the North, by C.I.A. estimates, has enough fuel for at least half a dozen bombs.

The Iranians took careful notes then, and here in Washington today the Korean experience underlies diplomacy-versus-force arguments that rarely take place on the record.
[...]
"Elimination of the nuclear program is not possible, but with the right strikes you could decisively set them back," said Ashton B. Carter, an expert at Harvard on proliferation problems.

Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum asks a good question:

So, if you can't get the money and influence-buying out of politics, why not get rid of the politicians? Isn't it time to go back to a citizen legislature, which would entail enacting a constitutional amendment on term limits?

Every time there is an "Abramoff", there are calls for reform. Isn't the money that goes to politicians really a bribe?

"One of the principles of the founders was rotation in office," says David Boaz, executive vice president of the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington.

Baum suggests term limits. 36 states already have some form of term limits now. Limiting the terms of congressmen might even contribute to smaller government. After all, their inexperience might cause them to study more and pass less meddling legislation.

Caroline Baum Abramoff term limits Mover Mike

From MarketWatch,

The president and chief executive of Nike Inc. (NKE), William D. Perez, resigned Monday after "leadership differences" between him and Philip H. Knight, the company's chairman and its founder. The world's leading maker of athletic apparel said the board and Perez mutually agreed on the move "without cause." Perez will be succeeded by Mark Parker, Nike's co-president. "Succession at any company is challenging, and unfortunately the expectations that Bill and I and others had when he joined the company a year ago didn't play out as we had hoped," Knight said in a statement.

The Big Picture reminded me of a chart that Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters used to run about the power of compounding. This chart should be posted on every school blackboard in the country. It should be given to every child when he or she gets a driver's license

Because of the Power of Compounding, if at 19 you put $2,000 in an IRA every year for seven years and never put in another dime, you will have more money accumulated than if you waited until you were 26 and contributed $2,000 every year until you were 65!!

Power of compounding Mover Mike

If you have been reading Mover Mike for awhile, you know I've been writing about the sorry state of the USD and how, IMO, it will result in a much, much higher price of gold. The first phase that started at $250 per ounce, was met with a high degree of scepticism and laughter, if I talked with friends about the prospects for gold. I believe that phase ended when after a sideways movement from late 2004 to late 2005, the price of gold broke out through $500 per ounce. The second phase should be one of acceptance that the price is going higher by investment professionals and allocation formulas will dictate precious metals should be represented in portfolios.

I love charts! This chart, courtesy of Jackie Chan at PICKING A TOP IN GOLD, shows the first phase and the correction very well.

It is a monthly chart of the Gold Bug index (HUI), an index of unhedged gold mining stocks. When gold bottomed at $250, the HUI bottomed at about 30 and went up eight-fold to 250 as gold doubled. IMO, the next move in the HUI should take it up eight-fold from 160, which gives me a minimum target of 1280! There should be three phases. 1280 should end the second phase. The third phase is the speculative phase. That's the phase when the general public finally decides they need to own gold. No one knows where the HUI could go or when it will end.

The point of this discussion is that many will be calling the top all the way up. It will be easy to follow the false sirens and sell only to find that it will be more expensive to get back in. IMO, this is a once in a generation move in gold just like the one that came along in Microsoft or Nike or Google. Some will get pieces of it, but not many will get the full ride.

Gold Investment HUI Mover Mike

From Lubbock Online.com (registration required), Oil production in Gulf still at only one-sixth capacity

The Gulf of Mexico's offshore petroleum industry is far from recovering from hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and at least one-sixth of the region's normal daily oil production will still be off line at the start of next storm season, a federal agency says.

[...]

Hurricane season begins June 1.

[...]

"The overall damage caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita has shown them to be the greatest natural disasters to oil and gas development in this history of the Gulf of Mexico," said MMS regional director Chris Oynes.

Oil Gas Katrinaa Rita Mover Mike

I saw in The Oregonian that Helena E. de Sully died. She was born in 1915. Mrs. de Sully had a son Max Jr. who was killed in Vietnam. I remember Max well, we went to Willamette University together, and his death played an integral part in forming my attitude toward the war in Nam and wars to follow.

As near as I can recall, Max graduated from Willamette and went to Wharton, where his student deferment ran out. He was drafted and went off to basic training. Sometime before shipping off to Nam, while on leave, he married his college sweetheart. He was in country for two weeks when he was killed by a sniper. What a f--king waste! Our military did a fine job fighting the VC and could have won it, even with one arm tied behind our backs, but for the politicians. We lost over 50,000 for what?

Since then, there has been Lebanon, Mogadishu and the Twin Towers. We finally go into Afghanistan and Iraq, accomplish something good, and the same sort wants to limit our action, belittle our forces, cause us to cut and run before the job is finished. And the politicians fight a war on the cheap and nit pick every military decision.

I don't care why we are there, now. I want the best for our fighting men and women and I want the cause to be just. In the end, it is just you and me who visit the "wall" and the Hoyt Arboretum, and find those like Max de Sully Jr. between Lonnie D Moore and Gary B Hobson.

There will be a memorial service for Helena E. de Sully Jan 20th in St. Matthews Episcopal Church at 10:00 AM. Mrs. de Sully not only lost her son, but her daughter Susan in an auto accident at 16.

Helena E. de Sully Max de Sully Jr. Vietnam

Last week POG traded as high as $558.80 and then was hit for almost $20. Normally, you would expect some cooling off before gold would resume its rise. Not this time! Here we are at $557.40 up 13.80 with 20 minutes to go in the session.

For years the most gold could advance was $6.00 and it could decline any amount. Not anymore! The gains are big and the corrections are deep but quickly recovered. Watch why by ordering the Gold Rush 21 for $19.95. It contains over eight hours of some of the most outstanding speakers outlining the case for gold. The left sidebar has a link to the free trailer. Check it out.

Gold Gold Rush 21 Mover Mike

Update: Gold finished the session at $558.20 up $14.60!

From MarketWatch, Philly manufacturing activity slows in Jan

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region increased at a slower pace in January, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday. The Philly Fed diffusion index fell to 3.3 in January from 10.9 in December. This is the lowest reading since last June. The index is only slightly above zero, which indicates expansion. The decline was unexpected. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 12.0, according to a MarketWatch survey. Despite the decline, new orders and shipments were stronger in January. Inflation pressures eased. Employment rose in the month. (emphasis added)

Hat tip to Amendment Nine, Members Of The 122nd Fighter Wing Head Overseas

This is said to be the largest deployment of the 122nd in more than forty years.

As you know, we in the US now owe over $8 Trillion. I can't imagine how big that number is, but Richard Russell in today's Dow Theory Letter offers this perspective:

A billion seconds add up to 31.7 years. But a trillion seconds adds up to 31,700 years!

Russell also calls our attention to an editorial at Gold-Eagle entitled The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse by Krassimir Petrov, Ph.D.. Reading this editorial feels like the curtain has parted and I just got a glimpse of a very important truth and it scares the hell out of me. Dr. Petrov argues that the opening of the bourse where oil will be traded in Euros is a very serious threat to the USD as a reserve currency and by implication, the US may have to resort to war to end the threat.

I have always thought that we had a great deal. We spend money we don't have on foreign goods and they (China, Japan, etc.) take our USDs and buy our debt. They accumulate piles and piles of USDs that have no intrinsic value and we devalue those dollars further by printing more. It just occured to me. We have no intention of ever making those dollars good.

Dr. Petrov writes that a nation-state taxes its own citizens, while an empire taxes other nation-states.

The history of empires, from Greek and Roman, to Ottoman and British, teaches that the economic foundation of every single empire is the taxation of other nations. The imperial ability to tax has always rested on a better and stronger economy, and as a consequence, a better and stronger military. One part of the subject taxes went to improve the living standards of the empire; the other part went to strengthen the military dominance necessary to enforce the collection of those taxes.

When we closed the gold window in 1971, we became an empire and we have exported our inflation to the world.

For the first time in history, in the twentieth century, America was able to tax the world indirectly, through inflation. It did not enforce the direct payment of taxes like all of its predecessor empires did, but distributed instead its own fiat currency, the U.S. Dollar, to other nations in exchange for goods with the intended consequence of inflating and devaluing those dollars and paying back later each dollar with less economic goods-the difference capturing the U.S. imperial tax.

If we allow the Bourse to open, we will find the Europeans and their Euros against us, the Russians with their new found love of gold against us, the Chinese with their huge piles of depreciating USDs against us, and the arab oil producers against us. We will stand alone!

A collapsing USD will trigger inflation in this country and interest rates will go sky high. Dr Petrov says

History teaches that an empire should go to war for one of two reasons: (1) to defend itself or (2) benefit from war; if not, as Paul Kennedy illustrates in his magisterial The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, a military overstretch will drain its economic resources and precipitate its collapse.

We are two months away from the end of the Empire or the Empire striking out for preservation of its life. This is a very dangerous time for Iran!

Irangold USD Mover Mike

Update: For additional information on the "oil weapon" and the Oil Bourse see Regime Change Iran

Colin Powell was in Glasgow yesterday and suggests Powell: Iran is going down Iraq's path. He makes several points:

he believed Iran posed a serious threat to the rest of the world

it was clear that negotiations with Iran had come to a dead end

efforts now had to concentrate on preventing it taking the same path as Iraq had done.

he questioned whether Iran could be trusted

the IAEA has made that judgment and even Iran itself has acknowledged gaps in the information it has provided over time, so there is sufficient reason to take what the Iranians are doing with some scepticism and suspicion.

We are not planning any military action and

Instead, he argued, Iran should be referred to the UN Security Council.

Now, what the heck does that accomplish? Iran has to know that any sanctions or action directed against it by the Security Council as a result of the referral will be vetoed by Russia or China. So they get more time to further their nuclear ambitions and the rest of the world is put at risk. This is precisely where Iraq was and it appears that this is where Iran is headed. Powell's side is of the school that if you just keep them talking and there will be no war. However, the other side starts believing they can win and make bad decisions. In the game of basketball you get on them early, stomp them and don't ever let them think they can win. The longer they hang around the more likely you going to get beat. Mr. Powell, you have laid out a case against Iran. It is time to stomp them if they don't comply!

What would Tony Soprano do?

Colin Powell Iran Mover Mike

While in Cabo I started and finished The Kite Runner. Many people have reviewed the book. Ron Franscell, author of Angel Fire, and blog at Under the News, is one of them and he wrote a review at Amazon.com that would make my description pale in comparison.

Hosseini's first novel -- and the first Afghan novel to be written originally in English -- "The Kite Runner" tells a heartbreaking story of the unlikely friendship between Amir, the son of a wealthy Afghan businessman, and Hassan, the son of his father's servant. Amir is Sunni; Hassan is Shi'a. One is born to a privileged class; the other to a loathed minority. One to a father of enormous presence; the other to a crippled man. One is a voracious reader; the other illiterate.

The poor Hassan is born with a hare lip, but Amir's gaps are better hidden, deep inside.

Yet Amir and Hassan live and play together, not simply as friends, but as brothers without mothers. Their intimate story traces across the expansive canvas of history, 40 years in Afghanistan's tragic evolution, like a kite under a gathering storm. The reader is blown from the last days of Kabul's monarchy -- salad days in which the boys lives' are occupied with school, welcome snows, American cowboy movies and neighborhood bullies -- into the atrocities of the Taliban, which turned the boys' green playing fields red with blood.

The Kite Runner is a remarkable first novel, I would swear is a biography. There are parts of the story that made me cringe in shame and whisper, "No! No! Don't do that." There are times I wanted to weep. It took me to Afghanistan where I relived its history.

I feel proud of the US for routing the Taliban, but I also feel we are naive if we think we can repair or influence centuries of animosities between peoples, either in Afghanistan or Eastern Europe or the Middle East. Their humanity ends with their differences between Shia and Sunni, or Pashtun and Hazari.

I give this book a "10" out of a possible 10, my highest rating.

The Kite Runner Book Review Mover Mike

Mandelinople has two very good posts: The age of moral relativism comes to a close and Our moral decay. Quoting from Our Moral Decay,

The problem is this: we will do with our votes what we would never do on our own. People of good conscience would never go into WalMart and take an item off the shelf and leave without paying for it. Yet they have absolutely no problem "authorizing" their government to do it.

Power comes from force and we authorize our government to use that force to commit theft. Ayn Rand wrote in Atlas Shrugged

But when a society establishes criminals-by-right and looters-by-law—men who use force to seize the wealth of disarmed victims—then money becomes its creators' avenger. Such looters believe it safe to rob defenseless men, once they've passed a law to disarm them.

Again she wrote

Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked, 'Account overdrawn.'

Ayn Rand gold Mover Mike

Update: The Ludwig Von Mises Institute site carries an excellent article on the subject: The Habitual Deceptions of the Political Class by Vedran Vuk

Muckdog in a comment to New All Time High! says

(Obviously, I'm a skeptic on the gold for the longterm because of the lack of inflation.)

Muckdog is not alone. Many economists say the same thing and even the bond market doesn't reflect the inflation that has occurred and is occuring. For what is inflation but an increase in the supply of money which depreciates the currency, causing more dollars to be spent for the same item. Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letter today quotes a Robert McHugh on M3:

For the past two weeks, the Fed added $93.5 billion to the money supply, a 24.0 percent annual clip. Over the past six weeks it is up $192.9 billion, a 16.7 percent Banana Republic hyperinflationary pace.

Now when I was first married back in the sixties, I bought a house for $14,200. It had about 2,000 square feet. Gold was about $35 per ounce. Today gold is about $550. The price is up 13 fold. 13 times $14,200 is $184,600. The house is basically the same, the dollars aren't. IMO, gold should be selling for $1,000 right now. My house is selling not for $184,600 but at $400,000, up 28 fold. 28 times $35 is $1,000 gold. Now that's inflation and it means the USD is down to 1/28th of its value from when Nixon severed all ties with gold in 1971.

inflation goldMover Mike

The REUTERS CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX has closed at a new all time high, 342.45, and broken out of a small trading range.

Crude Oiil closed above $66 a barrel.

Got Gold?

Two very interesting articles appeared yesterday. Rob Kirby at Financial Sense Online has an article entitled THE LOOMING FIAT CURRENCY TRAIN WRECK Kirby figures that at $60 per barrel of oil, come March when Iran starts taking Euros instead of USDs, that will mean a big increase in the demand for Euros. Then he factors in Venezuela and in total you are talking about $110 Billion new demand for Euros. Kirby includes a chart of US Demand vs Domestic Production and the gap is enormous. I can't understand why there isn't more urgency to drill in ANWR!

The second article is one written by Martin Feldstein, Uncle Sams bonanza might not be all that it seems. The MSM argues that the flow of capital into the US is more than adequate to fund our current account deficit and the inflow is primarily coming from private investors who want to participate in our strong economy. Feldstein argues both premises are not true. If it were true we would be seeing an increase in Forex reserves, which in fact have been declining over last two years. He believes the private investors are in reality governments and private institutions acting for governmments.

Collectively, the articles convince me again that the USD will decline at least 30% from here.

I had an interesting talk with a small business owner in San Jose del Cabo about the Peso. I asked what it was like to have experienced the devaluation. At its most recent the exchange was 3 Pesos to the USD, now it is currently 10.57 to the USD. One day, he said, was like the next except that people with their savings in Pesos were big losers and eventually prices were much higher. He said he protects himself by putting his savings into USDs. People who live in countries like Mexico, Argentina, Japan or China have experienced many devaluations and are knowledgeable about protecting their savings with other currencies or gold. Here, in this country, we have some experience with Continentals and Confederate Currency losing their entire value, and since 1971 the USD has lost 95% of its value, but we are naive about protecting our savings. It has been such a slow rot that no fanfare gets generated.

USD Gold Mover MIke

Carnival Of Liberty XXVIII is up at Below the Beltway!

So, finally our votes count!

The Supreme Court upheld Oregon's one-of-a-kind physician-assisted suicide law Tuesday, rejecting a Bush administration attempt to punish doctors who help terminally ill patients die.

Justices, on a 6-3 vote, said that a federal drug law does not override the 1997 Oregon law used to end the lives of more than 200 seriously ill people. New Chief Justice John Roberts backed the Bush administration, dissenting for the first time.

Oregon is the only state in which doctor-assisted suicide is legal. Under Oregon law, a doctor can prescribe a lethal dose of medication to a terminally ill patient of sound mind who makes the request in writing, with witnesses, repeats it at least two weeks later and meets other requirements. The patient must swallow the drug; it cannot be administered by anyone else.

SCOTUS doctor-assisted suicide Mover Mike

Update: Josh's Weblog has an excellent analysis of the decision by SCOTUS and compares it to "Kelo".

The NY Sun has a preview of the independent counsel David Barrett report which is expected to be released on Thursday.

Democrats have complained about the length and expense of Mr. Barrett's investigation, which cost more than $23 million when it closed this month. The report, excluding appendixes, runs to 428 pages. In it, Mr. Barrett is said to argue that Mr. Cisneros's mistress delayed the first half of the investigation by lying to a grand jury that was reviewing evidence in the case and that the second half was impeded by top Clinton administration officials. (emphasis added)

[...]

The Barrett report, which was completed in August 2004, does not appear to contain the bombshell evidence of a conspiracy directly involving President Clinton and his wife for that some conservatives had been hoping for, sources familiar with its contents said. But its detailed account of efforts by Messrs. Radek and Finkelstein to block and limit the inquiry could strengthen the hand of Republicans who fought unsuccessfully to have the full contents of the report released.

From the Poughkeepsie Journal.com, Stocks are regaining luster

(Bruce McMeiken) says, "Real estate's been good, and I don't think you're going to see that bubble completely burst, but I think it's time to look at stocks again."

[...]

"We've already seen individual investors showing some signs of interest in the fourth quarter, and something like Dow 11,000 just increases that interest," said Jeff Kleintop, chief investment strategist for PNC Financial Services Group in Philadelphia. "This week could be the shot in the arm people need to really get back in again."

My take is that investors and experts are spooked by Real Estate and now with the yield curve flat to inverted are wary of bonds, they are jumping to the third option, the stock market. There is a fourth option, natural resources. We have rising prices in most every commodity; oil is once again above $60, POG has taken out $550. In addition, gold stocks (HUI) are outperforming the metal since May, 2005 and gold is outperforming oil since September, 2005. In fact if oil stays at $60 and POG goes back to its traditional 17 times Oil, POG would be at $1020!

Turning to the third option, the stock market, trying to enhance your retirement pool is often a game of investing in growth stocks in the US. It might be best to look to natural resource sectors or a country sector. I say this because, while I was away, the China Fund (CHN) has broken a bearish trendline:

While slightly extended, StockCharts has a projection of $49, a 63% increase!

Speaking of China

China and India, the world's two fastest growing energy consumers, on Thursday set aside long-standing rivalries and agreed to co-operate in securing crude oil resources overseas.

The agreement, aimed at preventing the two nations' competition for oil assets pushing up prices, symbolises their increasingly assertive role in global energy politics.

[...]

India is more dependent on oil imports than China. (Mani Shankar) Aiyar, (India's petroleum minister) believes India's import dependency will increase from 70 per cent of consumption this year to about 85 per cent in 15 years. China imports about half its oil.

And speaking of China II, while flying back from Cabo, I sat across the aisle from a Japanese national, a woman my age born in Nagasaki. I said it appeared there was bad blood between China and Japan. Could that lead to Japan taking a bigger military role in defending themselves from China and N. Korea? She said it would, but Japan is limited by the Peace Treaty signed at the end of WWII. I asked if that could be changed, and she answered it WOULD be changed. She seemed well educated and very informed, but it could be just another opinion.

Ola, we enjoyed a wonderful week in Cabo San Lucas, Cabo del Sol, and San Jose del Cabo and after a 10 1/2 hour trip, are back. We stayed at the Fiesta American, a vacation club, that last year gave us a studio apartment for $100 a night if we would think about buying their time share. I asked before we left, if we wanted to come back next year and again wanted to stay in the villa, what was the nightly rate? The charming Mexican said it was not available to non-members, but a room in the hotel of equal quality would go for $350 to $600 per night, depending on the season.

The grounds at Fiesta Americana are the nicest I have seen in any resort in Hawaii or Arizona. A members infinity pool, 30 feet about the Sea of Cortez; a volleyball pool and a bikini pool where you swim up to the bar. I saw a man sitting at the bar in a "manziere" and a beribboned straw hat. Then there was a huge infinity pool water. We spent many hours hanging on the wall watching the breakers below. Everywhere there are liitle hottubs and cozy little crooks that make the experience more intimate. Everywhere there were two kinds of lounges and hammocks. You could sit on the beach and snorkle in the sea and be served by Mexican waiters.

I asked the lifeguard, "como se dice 'Help!' in Spanish." He did not understand me. "no hablo Englese!", he said. I finally learned that if I yell "ajuda me", he would rescue me. I thought that strange. I love Spanish, but I was worn out by the time we left, concentrating, trying to understand what they were saying. I did learn some new phrases to go with my old vocabulary. I have dos nietos (two grandchildren), un nieta y un nieto (one grand daughter and one grand son). I learned that I am "mui bien", if I am asked how I am (come uste), but bien is not used for food. Then it becomes comedia es buena (The food is great!). The Mexicans seemed to enjoy helping me and pleased that I was making an effort to learn their language.

I was amazed and embarrassed by the number of obese Americans. Not just fat, but a butt that is two big pigs in a sack. Many are so heavy that walking is a strain. The average Mexican I saw was about 5' 5" and thin. We were like sharks in a school of minnows.

Bev and I stopped by Los Bungalows,

where we stayed last year. Eric and Stella run the small hotel and Junior is selling timeshares to the tourists and doing well. Stella gave me a hug and asked if we were coming to breakfast on Thursday. I said yes if invited. She said breakfast is between 8 and 10 AM. We worried that we didn't define "invite". Were we paying or did they feel obligated to serve us free. In the end, after a wonderful fritata and guava juice, fruit and coffee, I said to Eric "La quenta por favor!" He consulted with Stella and came back with a note that said, "Two Breakfasts, No Charge!" Rates: In season $125 to $175 plus tax for two adults, price includes breakfast, $10 extra per person over 12yrs. Summer rates $78 to $110 USD. The buffet at Fiesta American was $ 240 pesos apiece or about $23, so Los Bungalows is an inexpensive way to enjoy Cabo. Plus Stella and Eric are wonderful people!

The sunrises off our deck were magnificent, the sun coming up over the Sea of Cortez. We had heard about a beautiful place to watch the sunset: Esperanza. We found the place a few miles down the road toward Cabo san Lucas. It was heavily secured and the guard at the gate had to radio in to see if it was ok to let us in. The heavy iron gates opened and we were escorted in and shown to the ristorante. Bev and I sat above the sea toasting the best sunset ever with margueritas and virgin strawbery daiquiris. As we were leaving, we got a rate card. Room rates at Esperanza run from $1200 to $5000 per night. It is the place for the stars, Gwyneth Paltrow, and dressers of the stars, Ralph Lauren.

Bev and I found the prices very high. It wasn't uncommon to spend $150 on dinner for two; that includes a VAT of 22% and servicio. We were dumb founded to spend $7.20 on a loaf of bread at the supermarket.

We did dine at some very good places for dinner: Mi Concina and Tequilas in San Jose and Mi Casa in Cabo. We had Sea Bass at Mi Concina on a bed of mashed potatoes and pureed mango. Bev had Tequila Schrimp and I had beef tenderloin at Tequilas. Both meals were delicious. Mi Casa was tradional Mexican and I had El Mole Poblano, which was wonderful; 35 different spices go into their mole. We did not enjoy the dinner at Mango's, though we did enjoy sticking our toes in the sand, and we did not enjoy the nachos at Finistera Hotel on the Pacific.

We are glad to be home. Seven days is just about right for me. I start missing our dog and life style and my blog, but not the ever present winter rain.

I have been so busy painting and getting ready for Cabo San Lucas that I completely missed this editorial in The Oregonian:

This time it's different . . . or so we should hope

Tradition tells us that when bond buyers start demanding a higher return from short-term bonds than from long-term ones, the economy is headed for a recession.

I don't envy the job of Ben Bernanke. The economy is not as strong as the pinheads on CNBC shout nor is inflation as benign as the government honchos want us to believe. Does Bernanke raise interest rates to keep inflation from going wild in a soft economy guranteeing a recession or does he start lowering interest rates causing the USD to fall and inflation to go up even more. Already gold at a 25 year high is telling us there are problems, if we would only listen!

This time it's different . . . or so we should hope

Hmmph!

inverted yield curve gold rita

This gave me pause. In To The Point, WE’RE ALL CRIMINALS NOW Written by Dr. Jack Wheeler (by subscription only), Dr. Wheeler speaking generally about the leaking of emails to the Washington Post by Sen John McCain against Jack Abramoff

Congress has now increased the penalties for mail and wire fraud to 20 years in prison. What constitutes wire fraud? Anything the prosecutor wants. All he needs is a “victim” and the use of the “mail” - which need not have anything to do with the federal Post Office, and includes electronic transmissions (“wires”) over privately-owned Internet services.

I want you to think very hard and long on this: any email you have ever sent can be grounds for felony federal wire fraud prosecution threatening you with 20 years in prison. The email, or “electronic transmission,” does not itself have to be fraudulent. It can still be “wire fraud” if it is only somehow “involved” in what the government deems to be a “fraudulent scheme.”

Nervous now? It is a complete illusion that anything legally stands in the way between federal prosecutors and American citizens.

Dr. Wheeler goes on to write

From now on, every time any of us sends an email, we get to ponder the accuracy of Ayn Rand’s prediction of where government was headed. It’s from Atlas Shrugged, Chapter Three, aptly entitled “White Blackmail”:

There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. Who wants a nation of law-abiding citizens? What's there in that for anyone? But just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted -- and you create a nation of law-breakers -- and then you cash in on the guilt.

Abramoff Dr. Jack Wheeler Mover Mike

From the Washington Times, Former Cabinet members aid Bush By Bill Sammon:

President Bush yesterday sought to counter press reports of insularity by soliciting advice on Iraq from a dozen former secretaries of state and defense from Democratic and Republican administrations.

While we read all the time from the MSM about our troops getting killed and casualties to civilians, I think trying to portray our war there negatively, the insurgents (terrorists) have their problems.

James Schlesinger, defense secretary under Presidents Nixon and Ford, said there is too much focus on minor setbacks suffered by U.S. forces and not enough emphasis on major setbacks suffered by insurgents.

"Instead of dwelling on the daily bombings, we ought to keep in mind the problems that the other side has been having," he said. "[The insurgents'] first goal was to stop the political process; they failed. The second goal was to prevent recruitment into the Iraqi security forces; they have signally failed, even though they have inflicted substantial casualties."

We bloggers know it is very hard to get balanced information from the press, and very hard to accurately assess the status of Iraq if you only read the MSM.

Bush Iraq Mover Mike

Over at Landfair Furniture (Blog) is an article by Bridget A. Otto entitled Furniture Folly Don't sit down on a costly mistake

Jennifer Litwin's frustration drove her to write a book, Best Furniture Buying Tips Ever!.

Even though Litwin is an antiques expert who trained at Sotheby's and reports on furniture for Consumers Digest, the Chicago-based author discovered the pitfalls of furniture shopping while trying to furnish her own home.

If she was frustrated, she thought, what must the average consumer experience?

One salesperson would say one thing about a sofa, and another would say something else. Litwin says she began to wonder who was being honest about the furniture.

The $75 billion-dollar-a-year industry is virtually unregulated, Litwin says. No one governs anything, leaving the consumer to be her own best advocate.

Jennifer Litwin furniture

Bloomberg has a lengthy article about Refco, Refco's Collapse Reveals Decades of Quarrels With Regulators. It is the best article I've seen that relates the fascinating history of Refco and its trading travails.

It was a firm that had a history of taking BIG positions and riding them as high or as low as they could; deciding at the end of the day which clients to award with winning trades and which the losing trades; and in 1996 deciding to loan a trader, who was into Refco for $28 Million, the money so that Refco's capital wouldn't be impaired.

From April to July 1996, the face value of Zahid's (Zahid Ashraf, the Eastern Trading's managing partner) sterling futures and options trades ballooned to $4 billion. Finally, in July 1996, Refco liquidated Eastern Trading's account and recorded a debit balance of $28 million.

Undisclosed Loss

Rather than book that $28 million as a loss, Refco Capital shifted its own money into Eastern's depleted account, without the Dubai firm's knowledge, according to the opinion. Bennett's firm asked Eastern to write a promissory note committing the Dubai firm to repaying that sum to Refco. That way Refco wouldn't have to disclose the loss to the CFTC in its capital requirement reports.

That was the start of loans to losers to cover up capital impairment issues and balooned to $430 Million. Refco had gone from a trader of its own account to a facilatator of trades and "bank" for institutional traders.

The part of the Bloomberg article that interests me (and the article hints at more to come) is the unregulated side of Refco's business.

In the U.S., brokers of exchange-traded futures are regulated by the CFTC. Domiciled in Bermuda and operated out of New York, Refco Capital Markets brokered over-the-counter derivative and currency trades and was therefore beyond the reach of U.S. regulators.

`Fertile Ground'

``These unregulated parts of the industry offer fertile ground for fraud, manipulation and other shenanigans,'' says Randall Dodd, director of the Derivatives Study Center, a Washington-based research and policy group.

More revelations may be at hand. The CFTC is still conducting its investigation of Refco and its finances. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is in the midst of its own, separate probe. (emphasis added)

Here you have a firm with a history of problems with regulators, playing in the unregulated derivatives market. That's like lighting a match to see if you have gas in your tank; that's like putting a pedophile in charge of a kindergarten; that's like putting a practicing alcoholic in charge of the OLCC!

Refco derivatives Mover Mike