Mover Mike

For me, Brenna Gethers and her posing is wearing thin. Brenna, time for you to go.

The next one to go is tough. I'm torn between Kinnick Sky

(I didn't buy that you are a cowgirl and I really don't know who you are.) and Heather Cox

Heather is a doll and I don't know yet if she can sing, she hasn't picked the right song. So Kinnick, you got lucky last week, but not this time. Goodbye!

Hats off to Ayla Brown and Kellie Pickler. You the best, this week! Tomorrow it's the boys turn. Peace out!

American Idol entertainment

Update: Dang! Once again Kinnick has life. Because of her, I'm two for four with the women. Sorry to see Heather go. She should have sang her song on Tuesday the way she did on Thursday!

The next gap was on 12/13/2005 with a close at 528.4. There was a correction to 497.0 on 12/21/2005. After the gap was closed gold ran to 579.5 on 02/02/2006, a gain from the gap of $51.10.

Now, our third gap took place on 02/06/2006 with a close at 574.3. IMO, the bottom was at 539.0 on 02/16/2006. As I indicated in my previous post, I believe we have broken out of a small head and shoulders bottom. If this move acts like the previous two our next high should be between 625.40 and 640.00, sometime in the first two weeks of April.

BTW, there are no gurus in the world, there are no guarantees. We all must think for ourselves. I just want to see if I can get it more right than the "bubbleheads" on TV, who get paid more than I do and are not accountable for their predictions.

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Gold economics Mover Mike

Update: Gold to touch $ 610 in near future: BBA

Though it is maintaining a constant upward swing, precious metal gold is still underperforming and is likely to touch dollar 610 per ounce in the near future, says an industry expert.

The StockCharts shows this is the third big drop since mid-January. It has now reached the 200dma where you would expect to find support and provides a good "stopping" point.

Google stocks finance

Update:

As a parent with two kids in Texas schools, I have a pet peeve. I really, really resent that their education is hampered by kids who can’t speak English. I’ve seen classes that move mind-bogglingly slow as teachers have to work one-on-one with children who shouldn’t be there in the first place. It’s enough to make me grind my teeth in frustration!

I am a big proponent of the immersion method of learning a language. It is my firm belief that once in America, immigrants should learn our language, and the best way is by complete and total immersion. When we lived in Mexico, we placed my son into a public school in the local village so that he could learn the language more rapidly. I continued to teach him at home what he needed to know to keep his education above American standards, and his classroom experience was for language purposes only. We asked for no special considerations, we just did what was necessary. It was not easy, but it worked.

That is only one of the reasons it is so offensive to see our tax dollars paying for immigrants, many of them here illegally, to receive special dispensations because they can’t (or won’t) learn our language! But why should they learn, when almost everything is bi-lingual anyways?

Recently in Arizona, an activist judge has ruled that it’s not enough that American citizens pay for a free education for the children of illegal aliens, and it’s not enough that the classes are dumbed-down for non-English speakers, but now the taxpayers must pay exorbitant funds to provide special classes for children who don’t speak English!

One of the most outrageous examples of out-of-control judges is the case called Flores v. Arizona, now pending in federal court in Tucson. Originally filed in 1992, plaintiff lawyers claim to represent an estimated 160,000 children of illegal immigrants attending Arizona public schools.

The case seeks to force Arizona taxpayers to pay for bringing these children, euphemistically called English Language Learners, up to grade level. The lawyers are trying to accomplish this by turning a state legislative issue into a federal judicial command.

Based upon that, Arizona Judge Alfredo C. Marquez, appointed by Jimmy Carter, ruled against the Arizona taxpayers, but had enough restraint to recognize that he could not substitute the court's "educational values and theories for the educational and political decisions reserved to state or local school authorities." Nevertheless, he tasked the legislature with performing a cost study.

Over the next few years, the Arizona legislature passed three bills for this special funding. However, none of them were as large as Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, wanted and so she vetoed all three. Governor Napolitano wanted the Arizona Legislature to appropriate nearly $1,200 per immigrant child, totaling $192 million, without accountability for how it was to be spent. Obviously, the governor, with the judge’s ruling on her side, could sit and wait until the legislature saw things her way.

Unfortunately, the next judge in succession of Marquez, upped the ante. Appointed by Bill Clinton, Judge Ramer C. Collins, decided to punitively fine the Arizona State Legislature for not funding special accommodations for non-English speaking students.

In December 2005, Collins imposed fines of $500,000 a day, escalating to $2 million a day, for every day that the legislature fails to authorize funding acceptable to the governor.

[…]

Since Jan. 25, millions of dollars in court-ordered fines have been accumulating. If this continues to the end of the legislative session, the fines will total more than $77 million.

If there is any issue that should be clearly and exclusively a function of the legislature elected by the people it is the matter of raising taxes and spending the people's money. Unfortunately, there are many supremacist judges who think they (in this case, a judge and a governor) can order the legislature to raise taxes and tell them how to spend taxpayer money.

As one small town resident has said, “I, along with millions of other American citizens, am sick and tried of the politicians and others treating illegal aliens like honored guests! They are not honored, and they are not guests.”

H/T: American Daughter

This has been a production of the Guard the Borders Blogburst. It is syndicated by Euphoric Reality, and serves to keep immigration issues in the forefront of our minds as we're going about our daily lives and continuing to fight the war on terror. If you are concerned with the trend of illegal immigration in our country, join the Blogburst! Send an email with your blog name and url to euphoricrealitynet at gmail dot com.

Guard the Bordersimmigration ESL

I've been so many places in my life and time,
I've sung a lot of songs, I've made some bad rhyme,
I've acted out my love in sta - ges
With ten thousand people watching --
But we're alone now and I'm singin' this song for you.

I know your image of me is what I hope to be;
I've treated you unkindly but baby can't you see
There's no one more important to me?
Baby can't you please see through me,
'Cause we're alone now and I'm singin' this song for you.

Bridge:
You taught me precious secrets
Of the truth, withholdin' nothin',
You came out in front and I was hiding;
But now I'm so much better,
And if my words don't come together,
Listen to the melody 'cause my love's in there, hi - ding.

I love you in a place where there's no space or time;
I love you for my life, you are a friend of mine,
And when my life is o - ver, remember when we were together --
We were alone and I was singin' this song for you.

Christina+Aguilara Herbie Hancock

Drought Canada Economics

Although oil prices have risen to more than $60 a barrel in recent months, they have averaged as low as $25 per barrel within the last five years. Having experienced past volatility in oil prices, oil companies report using a working assumption of $15-$30 per barrel for the future price of oil when making long-term investment planning decisions. (emphasis added)

What struck me about the chart he shows of oil prices in 2005 dollars, is how remarkably stable oil prices were in the period from 1986 to 2004.

Energy Bulletin has an article entitled The End of the Oil Standard and there's this paragraph:

According to Pennwell's Energy Statistics Sourcebook, OPEC production declined from 30.67 million barrels per day in 1979 to 16.02 million barrels per day in 1985. The same source list OPEC's maximum sustainable production capacity as 34.4 million barrels per day in 1985. By the end of 1985, OPEC had 18 million barrels per day of shut-in oil production capacity. It became clear that there had to be a price ceiling as well as a floor. This was the price band.

Was the oil standard an accident or was it a deliberate product of U.S. policy? Motives are difficult to determine and the U.S. Treasury has not claimed to tie the dollar to oil prices. The ultimate effect of the end of the oil standard is difficult to predict, but one should not understate its importance.

We can look back at the changes that took place in this country, financially, since 1971 when Nixon took us off the "Gold Standard". The Energy Bulletin alludes to serious changes coming from the end of the "Oil Standard".

Back to Econbrowser, Hamilton asks the question:

...if ($15-30) is the downside risk that oil companies are contemplating, why don't they hedge away the risk by selling more oil forward at the $64/barrel price that one can currently guarantee through the December 2010 futures contract?

Carnival of the Capitalists energy gold standard oil standard derivatives

Update: I was probably one of many who informed Stevens that the article on his site accusing some one of manipulating volcanoes was in error. What he was seeing was a calibration signal created by inducing a current in the seismometers coil. This is an automatic process and the resulting signal is used for quality control. He has pulled the article from his site for further investigation. (Note: I will never pull writing from my site. I will strike through my errors and correct the article.)

Scott Stevens at Weather Wars has a very thought provoking assertion: Someone is messing with our volcanoes!

What would you think if you were told that the currently erupting Augustine Volcano in Alaska was experiencing an unusual kind of earthquake every twelve hours to the second? That’s right, a very strange earthquake goes off on Augustine every twelve hours exactly to the second. What would you think if you were told that each of these unusual earthquakes lasted for exactly the same length of time, fifty-seconds for each and every event? What would you think if you were shown a collection of seismic waveforms for these precision earthquakes that were essentially identical?

Stevens also sees the same regularity in Northwest mountains.

The earthquakes from Mt. Rainier appear to occur every twelve hours with a variation of three seconds. The word ‘appear’ is used because none of the records available for these volcanoes is complete. The earthquakes from Mt. Baker appear to occur every twelve (or twenty-four} hours with a variation of twenty-seven seconds. The earthquakes from Mt. Hood appear to occur every twelve (or twenty-four} hours with a variation of two minutes. Within individual regions, the earthquake seismograms are remarkably similar. Each location has their own particular set of event times, and they are different for each location. Events are being shown from three locations to eliminate the possible judgment of ‘equipment malfunction.’

geology earthquakes Scott Stevens

Update: I received an email from Bill Steele at The Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network

Mike, What you are seeing is a calibration signal created by inducing a current in the seismometers coil. This is an automatic process and the resulting signal is used for quality control. Good Eyes- Bill

Update:

MAP 3.2 2006/02/26 01:08:20 44.653 -110.431 0.3 YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING

Does it mean anything or does it mean nothing?

Yellowstone Earthquakes geology

Inflation-targeting comes in many flavors, as some countries have taken a more hawkish stance in terms of putting inflation first among equals or even first among the objectives of policy.

As I said, I subscribe entirely to the Humphrey-Hawkins mandate, which puts employment growth and output growth on fully equal footing with inflation in terms of the Federal Reserve's objectives.

SARBANES: E.J. Dionne wrote, just a few weeks ago, "A Fed chairman who beats inflation at the cost of middle-income living standards will not be regarded as a success."

What do you think about that observation?

BERNANKE: Senator, I think it's a false dichotomy. I think that middle-income living standards and poverty, for that matter, are best addressed through strong, stable employment growth.

It's low-income people who suffer most from recessions. It's low-income people who suffer most from high levels of inflation.

The understanding that central banks currently have is that, by maintaining inflation at a low and stable level, avoiding a situation where inflation gets out of control — as it did, for example, in the 1970s — you can create more stable, more polished (ph), more substantial growth in employment.

I'm entirely in favor of maximum employment. I believe this is a method to achieve it. If I did not think it was, I would not pursue it

...stable prices are a ``prerequisite'' to achieving high employment and moderate interest rates.
[...]
Stable prices are desirable in themselves and thus are an important goal of monetary policy...

Sarbanes Bernanke economy

The Fed is supposed to be independent from political control, and even though the Fed is a cartel run by the banks, for the banks, it does smack of "banana republic" to have all governors appointed by one man, President Bush. I wish Bush hadn't said, "The Constitution...it is just a God damned piece of paper!"

SARBANES: Yes.

The Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which established the Federal Reserve System, set the 14-year terms for the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.

SARBANES: I think that clearly reflected the intention of Congress at the time in enacting this legislation to place the Federal Reserve Board and its individual members beyond the reach of any given administration and the political pressures of the moment.

Actually, the 14-year term is the longest we give to any official in the government other than the lifetime appointments for members of the federal judiciary.

I think it's fair to say, or certainly has come to be the case, that the credibility of the Federal Reserve rests in large part on broad confidence in its independence in the judgments it makes.

And, obviously, if that confidence were to be undermined, the stature of the board would be gravely diminished. And that, in turn, would have serious consequences, I think, not only for our national economy but, indeed, for the world economy.

Update:

Then I looked at the March daily silver chart and the same head and shoulders bottom. The chart shows silver breaking out, also. IMHO, it appears both gold and silver are set to challenge recent highs.

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Gold economics silver Mover Mike

Last week the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center issued their drought forecast for 2006 through May:

Why could a new Dust Bowl drought occur? The low-level jet stream-a fast-moving current of winds close to the Earth's surface-travels from east to west across the Atlantic, then typically curves northward as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, bringing moisture to the Great Plains. Abnormal sea-surface temperatures have caused this low-level jet stream to continue westward and to weaken, which is preventing much-needed moisture from reaching the agriculturally critical region. The shift in the jet stream is also allowing a southerly flow from Mexico to bring much drier air northward into the Plains.

The severe winter in Eastern Europe’s major grain regions have killed on average about 30% of the crop. Due to drought in the Ukraine and elsewhere, winter wheat planting was down by about 18%. Normally those losses would be made up in the US and Canada, but if forecasts are right from the NWS, our grain crops could suffer. According to London Irvine Report

The probability is for higher prices across the year ahead. Though wheat is an obvious candidate, grains have a tendency to move as a group and that includes Soybeans, corn and oats.

Beans in the Teens?

Is it too early to wonder about the ramifications of rapidly rising food prices and that effect on society?

Drought commodities climate

Update:

I am almost always picked for extra screening. I must be on a list of middle aged Irish-American women terrorists. I know a message is being sent: We don't do ethnic profiling in America. But that is not, I suspect, the message anyone receives. The message people receive is: This is all nonsense.

That would be wrong, we are told. That would be "racial profiling" and we don't do that in this country. So why are we upset with selling our ports' management to Dubai? Aren't I guilty of profiling when I said that it was a stupid idea to allow the sale to go through. I even said that if we do that, why don't we outsource border security to Venezuela? And who has been most adamant against profiling? The Libs! So it is amusing to see "The Libs" posture on this issue:

In USA Today Chuck Shumer and Pete King write Where's common sense?

In a post-9/11 world, common sense would dictate that the proposed Dubai Ports World deal would trigger intense scrutiny on the part of our government. Yet common sense clearly did not prevail.

"in the meantime, Congress must put an immediate halt to this deal that the administration hastily approved in secret without input from the Congress or state officials."

plan to introduce legislation barring the sale of port operations to foreign governments, the Washington Times reported on Tuesday.

At least Thomas de Zengotita at The Huffington Post acknowledges the problem:

But here's what I'm a little squeamish about. Am I also supposed to imply, ever so subtly, that Arab and Muslim nations and organizations are suspect by definition, thus playing on widespread US prejudices on that score? I myself, as a progressive, obviously do not share that view -- but I know it makes for effective spin. Am I supposed to do that?

Hey, wait a minute, I just realized how to handle this one. I won't fulminate so much against Dubai running our major East Coast ports. I'll fulminate instead against any "foreign power" running our ports. That way I maximize the upside and minimize the downside.

Dubai Eastern Ports USDs economics profiling

Bush Dubai Eastern Ports

In case you missed Katharine McPhee sing Since I Fell For You, rickey.org has a MP3 of her singing. Right now she's my choice for going all the way.

American Idol Katharine McPhee Entertainment

The LA Daily News has this article: Climbing food, fuel prices strain budgets

People are feeling the pinch from rising inflation.

"It's tough out there for most households," economist Joel Naroff said after the government reported Wednesday that consumer prices galloped ahead in January at the fastest pace in four months.
[...]
With overall inflation gaining momentum in January, families' budget were strained. A separate report, also released by the Labor Department, showed that workers' average weekly earnings, adjusted for inflation, dropped by 0.4 percent in January compared with a year ago. For most workers last year, paychecks didn't keep pace with inflation.

The government has flim-flammmed, flummoxed and bamboozled economists and bubbleheads with their "core rate" talk while our currency declines in value. They have capped the price of gold by leasing and selling gold to keep the alarm bells from sounding. It is not nice to fight mother nature or markets.

core rate of inflation finance gold

Banks Plan to Settle Default Swaps (over the counter derivatives) in Cash, Avoiding `Squeeze'

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Debt-insurance contracts may be settled in cash, averting a rush for bonds when companies default, under a plan being proposed today by the International Swaps (over the counter derivatives) and Derivatives Association.

The market for credit derivatives, dominated by credit- default swaps (over the counter derivatives), expanded fivefold in two years to about $12.4 trillion, according to ISDA in New York. Banks sold so many of the contracts that when auto-parts maker Delphi Corp. defaulted in October, there weren't enough bonds to settle with, causing prices for the notes to rally.

[...]

No one knows just how much debt is insured through credit- default swaps (over the counter derivatives) because the contracts are privately arranged and aren't listed on any exchange.

Credit derivatives are the fastest growing part of the $270 trillion market for derivatives, financial obligations based on interest rates, the outcome of certain events, or the price of underlying assets such as bonds.

Investors use credit-default swaps (over the counter derivatives) to protect against non- payment on debt, or trade them as a way of betting on a company's credit quality. The buyer of the contract pays an annual fee and receives the full amount insured if the borrower defaults. Usually the buyer is obliged to deliver the defaulted loans or bonds as part of the settlement process.

Those who have followed GATA, believe that the central banks and the bullion banks are short 12,000 to 16,000 tins of gold. When it becomes crunch time, do you want some fiat currency or do you want your gold? The Comex and the government will try, maybe even mandate, you settle in cash. To settle in gold would drive the price to the moon.

The new piece of information in this article is the size of the derivatives market: $270 Trillion. The BIS in 2002 estimated the size to be $109 Trillion. That is almost triple in three years!

Swaps Over the Counter Derivatives Finance

We'll see tomorrow night when the 24 are reduced to 20.

American Idol culture entertainment

Update:

I was correct. Both Bobby and Patrick have been eliminated. Now there are 20!

MAP 1.0 2006/02/22 07:06:55 44.521 -110.998 13.0 18 km ( 11 mi) SSE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.2 2006/02/22 07:00:42 44.520 -110.971 12.2 19 km ( 12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.2 2006/02/22 06:58:41 44.513 -110.996 10.6 19 km ( 12 mi) SSE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.3 2006/02/22 06:50:25 44.528 -110.987 8.0 18 km ( 11 mi) SSE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.3 2006/02/22 06:43:59 44.532 -110.979 3.0 18 km ( 11 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.0 2006/02/22 06:37:44 44.530 -110.960 5.9 19 km ( 12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.6 2006/02/22 06:28:58 44.593 -110.983 13.5 12 km ( 8 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.2 2006/02/22 06:28:42 44.512 -111.014 14.0 18 km ( 11 mi) SSE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.4 2006/02/22 06:25:25 44.529 -110.981 7.3 18 km ( 11 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.5 2006/02/22 06:23:55 44.531 -110.949 10.1 19 km ( 12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.3 2006/02/22 06:21:43 44.532 -110.959 7.0 19 km ( 12 mi) SE of West Yellowstone, MT

Some unusual jiggles in the park and I'm going there this summer. My first time ever!

Yellowstone Earthquakes caldera

Roger Ferguson, the No. 2 official at the Federal Reserve during the last eight years of Alan Greenspan's tenure, announced Wednesday that he has decided to resign from the board of the central bank, effective at the end of April.

[...]

With Ferguson's departure, all seven Fed governors will have been chosen by President Bush.

Federal Reserve Roger Ferguson finance

Update:

One of the biggest news today was the surprise resignation of Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson.

One of the most respected Federal Reserve Governors; Ferguson was once thought to have what it takes to succeed Greenspan. As the only central banker in Washington during 9/11 while Greenspan was in Europe, Ferguson has often been credited for steering the Fed through the crisis. However, Ferguson has often bumped heads with Bernanke as he opposes inflation targeting, arguing that it limits the Fed's flexibility.

With his departure, Ben Bernanke's board of governors now consists of all Bush nominees. This shock to the market will once again bring back concerns about how well Ben Bernanke's team will respond to any crisis that may fall upon the economy.

American Idol Culture Entertainment

Update: I was surprised that Becky

was eliminated, but correct that Stevie would be gone. Now there are 20!

Now the powerful Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has now voiced grave doubts about the policy and called on politicians to begin debating an overhaul of the current global economic system.

In another radical move it has also suggested ditching many national currencies in favour of a small number of formal currency blocks based on the dollar, euro and renminbi or yen.

Rob Kirby says

The experiment of an un-backed - global – fiat reserve currency , that began in August of 1971 is now being shown for what it has long been – an unmitigated failure. First, our jobs disappeared. Now, our currencies seem to be on the same ‘planned’ path to extinction. Next on the menu, no doubt is our sovereignty.

A Marion County circuit judge, Mary Mertens James, ruled that the property rights law (Measure 37) violated state and federal constitutions. She said it took away the Legislature's power, gave longtime landowners an unfair advantage and shut other Oregonians out of the planning process.

Governments must either turn back the clock to rules in place when land was purchased, or pay for owners' financial loss.

[...]

"Whether Measure 37 as a policy choice is wise or foolish, farsighted or blind, is beyond this court's purview," justices wrote. "Our only function in any case involving a constitutional challenge to an initiative measure is to ensure that the measure does not contravene any pertinent, applicable constitutional provisions."

Measure 37 Oregon Supreme CourtProperty rights

Update:

On a list of states with the worst property-rights protections, Oregon has long held a top position. So hearty congratulations to that state's landowners, who this week won a long struggle for more control over their acreage, and in the process may become a model for land-use reform across the country.

And I love the humor of ScrappleFace, especially this joke:

Q: How many jihadists on board a Maltese-flagged ship does it take to set off an electromagnetic pulse that disables every communication and power circuit in New York, bringing the Great Satan to his knees?
A: It takes two jihadists: one to distract the port-security official by removing his head, and the other to disembark with the nuclear device and take a taxi to Wall Street for detonation among the infidels.

CNOOC announced that it had withdrawn its bid for Unocal, citing political tension inside the United States.

It's only a matter of time before some country decides it's not in their interest to hold USDs!

Dubai Eastern Ports USD Finance

A mysterious black blob attacked downtown Los Angeles on Monday with a tar-like goo that oozed from manholes, buckled a street and unmoored a Raymond Chandler-era brick building, firefighters said.

[...]

a pressurized liquid shot from every street orifice located above what used to be a historic oil field downtown.

Update:

A MESS: A DWP worker looks at the black tarry substance that oozed from a crack in the asphalt on Olive Street. Officials blamed the mess on nearby oil company workers who were injecting high-pressure hot water into old wells to extract leftover crude oil. (Genaro Molina / LAT)

Authorities remembered that there's a petroleum drilling site two blocks from the apartment building. When they checked there, they discovered that workers were injecting high-pressure hot water into old wells to extract leftover crude oil.

conservatives' tendency to catch "Potomac fever" as soon as they come to power.

has been at the center of the slowly building force of conservatism for half a century.

[...]

Mr. Evans is fed up with a Congress that he has struggled for years to populate with Republicans.

"The Republican Party in Congress basically has given up on stopping the growth of big government," he says. "They're adding to the problem almost daily with their earmarks and their pork."

Republican Party M. Stanton Evans Big GovernmentN Politics

What (Mickey) Kaus means is that the mainstream media keep reinforcing ideas liberals want to believe, whether they are true or not.

[...]

Kaus thinks preliminary box office numbers indicate that Brokeback isn't reaching red America...

Fact is, none of the movies nominated is reaching red America. Going back as far as 1980, no movie has ever won best picture that has been lower than #25 (The Last Emperor) in domestic gross. For 2004 Million Dollar Baby won at #24, 2003 it was The Lord of the Rings at #1, for 2002 it was Chicago at #10, at #11 was A Beautiful Mind in 2001 and Gladiator won in 2000 at #4.

No, I have not seen all the movies in the top 33, and yes, I have seen all the pictures nominated. (I have put a star by the movies I have not seen.) Since none of these movies is in the top 25, which one is the most "red America"? I am guessing Crash or Munich, so I will stick with my earlier prediction, Munich for Best Picture!

Academy Awards Oscars Brokeback Mountain Red America culture

This has been a production of the Guard the Borders Blogburst. It was started by Euphoric Reality, and serves to keep immigration issues in the forefront of our minds as we're going about our daily lives and continuing to fight the war on terror. If you are concerned with the trend of illegal immigration facing our country, join our blogburst! Just send an email with your blog name and url to euphoricrealitynet at gmail dot com.

Blogs already on board:

One Man's Trash A blog by Norman Leahy

Either way, Hawaii's motorists will end up paying more -- and possibly see sharp decreases in supply before long.

So if the price of gasoline approaches the cap, the price will actually increase faster in Hawaii than elsewhere.

"No, gasoline is very cheap in Kandalaksha. You just can't buy any there." It looks as if the government of Hawaii studied at the same school of economics.

This is exactly the kind of nonsense that was tried, and failed, in the 1970s. The result back then was shortages and gas lines. Does anyone really doubt that this is precisely what will happen in Hawaii when these regulations take effect?

Hawaii's gas price controls, imposed last fall when the cost of fuel was hovering around $3 a gallon in many parts of the U.S., have actually triggered much higher costs for consumers.

As of Friday, Hawaii drivers were paying the highest per-gallon costs in the nation, with record-setting prices of as much as $3.39. A year ago, consumers in Hawaii were paying nearly $1 a gallon less. The national average today is $2.24 a gallon.

Only in America can people get all exercised about their loss of freedoms due to the Patriot Act and propose more controls on the economy which really limits our freedom.

Hawaii Gasoline price controls Mover Mike

Ever heard of Dr. Jack Wheeler? In To The Point , he writes... that there are leftists (Rogue Weasels) in the CIA who believe, like the State Department, that the way to manage disputes between countries is to talk, accomodate, and appease. These Rogue Weasels are not happy with the war on terrorism, and want Kerry elected.

Lefties like Pillar are betting their farm that one of their ideological own, ideally Hillary, will be the next president, who will re-ensconce them at Langley and they can be back in the appease-America's-enemies business.

BTW, on The Oregonian's editorial page is a column by Jonathan Chait entitled Watching Hillary Clinton, An 'angry' euphemism. Chait calls our attention to RNC Ken Mehlman's comments:

"Hillary Clinton seems to have a lot of anger. I don't think the American people, if you look historically, elect angry candidates."

Clinton is a certifiable moderate who thinks that Bush is a historically awful president.

Dr. Jack Wheeler CIA Iraq Hillary Clinton

Update: Betsy's Page finally figures out that the CIA is politicized

Gold Bull Rush has a chart that shows the gold bull market since early 2003.

It shows a regular rising channel until December of 2005, where gold broke through the top of the channel. The question becomes is this a feint through the top as happened in December 2004 and gold soon returns to the bottom of the channel, which would mean a correction to $475 or so? Or is something different this time?

Adrian Douglas writing at Le Metropole Cafe, (by subscription only, but there is a free trial available) sees an archetype based on the last bull market in gold of two linear moves and then an exponential move. He believes this new upsloping channel is the second linear move. It is characterized by propaganda designed to get the speculators short while the institutions (Goldman Sachs, for example) cover their shorts and go long. Then when the specs realize they've been had, the exponential phase begins.

I'm inclined to agree with Douglas. It appears the character of gold trading has changed. The $6 rule seems to be broken. A rule whereby moves up for gold for many, many months were limited to $6 gains, but declines could be multiples of $6. It also appears to be noticed by the MSM that gold is moving, as in "gold made a new 25 year high today". There also appears to be some concern about inflation and more indepth economic news. We still have the "bubbleheads" spouting their nonsense on MSNBC and CNBC like Luskin, Kudlow and recently Timothy Middleton, but that will change if Douglas is right.

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Gold economics inflation Mover Mike

Update: An update is in order here, due to a lot of traffic to my site re: the above chart showing gold in a steeply rising channel. It appears from looking at Jesse's charts, that that steep up channel has been broken by the second drop back to $540. Back to the chart above, obviously $540 is our support and it does appear that we are still above the top resistance line.

Jesse, BTW is pointing out that oil is coiling and looks like it's ready to take off and silver is within a few cents of multi-year highs.

The car maker has about $30 billion in debt. Traders estimate more than $200 billion in credit derivatives are linked to GM. But because such derivatives don't trade on an exchange, nobody knows for certain how much credit-default swap protection has actually been written on GM. And nobody can say with confidence that they even know who is on the other side of the trades that they have entered into.

[...]

Four years ago, the derivatives market was a fraction of the size of the underlying corporate-bond market. Today, it is estimated at $12.5 trillion, more than twice the underlying market's size, and it continues to expand rapidly.

Today the size of derivatives markets is estimated by the Bank of International Settlements to exceed $109 trillion in outstanding contracts and over $400 trillion in trading volume on derivatives exchanges.

Mr. Corrigan is organizing a symposium on March 1 to follow up on issues raised in a report published by the Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group II last July.

The report is directed at initiatives that will further reduce the risks of systemic financial shocks and limit their damage when, rarely, but inevitably such shocks occur. (emphasis added)

First, the triggering event or events cause sharp and sudden declines in one or more classes of asset prices. The decline in asset prices is sufficiently steep to raise questions about the creditworthiness of major counterparties or institutions such that the analytical distinction between market risk and credit risk blurs as market risk and credit risk feed on each other.

Second, the combination of falling asset prices and the erosion of creditworthiness causes market participants to commence risk mitigation efforts such as position liquidations which - while perfectly reasonable at the micro level - add to macro pressures on asset prices wjich in turn trigger the initial evaporation of market liquidity for one or more classes of assets. The evaporation of asset liquidity aggravates both market and credit risk and begins to call into question balance sheet liquidity for some institutions. Investor position liquidations intensify these pressures.

Third, in these circumstances, once seemingly generous amounts of margin or collateral are rapidly called into question, thereby dramatically elevating credit concerns. The escalation of credit concerns further influences the defensive behavior of financial market participants, all of which acts to reinforce the cumulating the adverse market dynamics. Hence a financial crisis with systemic risks is at hand.

A central and recurring theme to every aspect of this Report is, in a word, complexity.

Let us recall Fed Chairman Bernanke's comment yesterday in November, 2005 at the Hearing Regarding Ben Bernanke's Nomination to Be Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in response to Sen. Sarbanes concerns about derivatives.

Bernanke:Nevertheless, broadly speaking, my understanding is that the hedge fund industry has become more sophisticated, more diverse, less leveraged and more flexible in the years since LTCM.

Update: as to when the meeting between Sen Sarbanes and Bernanke took place.

In case you are not familiar, PPS has a tax expiring that will lop $50 Milion off a $400 Million budget. The Mayor has proposed a tax, but polls show 55% of voters will not pass a tax on themselves. As I said in PPS: You've A Long Way To Go, Baby!

...school leaders said Friday they must remake the district's image before they ask for more money.

I get calls from Willamette University, where I went two years, I get calls from my fraternity, Beta Theta Pi, and I get calls from Portland State University where I graduated in 1968. All want money to fund improvements or for scholarships. I have never received a phone call about Madison High. Hire me to set up an organization that will seek money for Madison Improvements, funding for the music program, funding for the sports program or a wing of the school or a specific class or a scholarship program for college. Sure I could work for a tax to fund the schools, but that money just disappears. With my plan, my fellow alums get immediate feedback with accountability.

With my plan, we invite all alums back to the school, make an assessment of the needs and get to work. With my plan, alums would be invited to have their events at the school. With my plan alums would renew their connection to the school and their neighborhood.

Hire me! I went to four years to Madison High School, home of the Senators, graduated in 1962, got a great education at one of the largest high schools in the district (over 3000 students). While at Madison, I worked on or chaired several committees to decorate for dances and ran for student body president. I worked almost 30 years as a stockbroker gathering money. I have been to every high school reunion and even chaired the reunion committee one year. And, have been the marketing guru for Landfair Furniture.

Hire me! The old ways of funding are over. Socialism didn't work. It's time for a new way. Hire Me!

Portland Schools

SARBANES: Warren Buffett has warned us that derivatives are time bombs both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system. The Financial Times has said, so far, there has been no explosion, but the risks of this fast-growing market remain real.

How do you respond to these concerns?

BERNANKE: I'm more sanguine about derivatives than the position you just suggested. I think, generally speaking, they are very valuable. They provide methods by which risks can be shared, sliced and diced and given to those most willing to bear it.

They add, I believe, to the flexibility of the financial system in many different ways.

And, with respect to their safety, derivatives, for the most part, are traded among very sophisticated financial institutions and individuals who have considerable incentive to understand them and to use them properly.

The Federal Reserve's responsibility is to make sure that the institutions which it regulates have good systems and good procedures for ensuring that their derivatives portfolios are well-managed and don't create excessive risk in their institutions.

SARBANES: In a recent article in the New York Times, they stated, quote, "Seven years ago, Wall Street's top bankers were caught off guard by the near-collapse of the long-term capital management hedge fund. Since then, the number and influence of hedge funds have ballooned. The hedge fund explosion has prompted concerns that, if a big bet goes wrong, regulators and banks will again be caught up in a collapse."

My recollection is that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was convening all-night, all-weekend meetings at the time of long-term capital management, putting enormous pressure on financial institutions to pick up on it in order to prevent the very collapse that's mentioned here.

How do you respond to this concern — equally sanguine?

BERNANKE: Well, I think it's important not to be complacent. It's important for the Federal Reserve to be aware of what's going on in the market, particularly working through the banks, which are the counter-parties of a lot of hedge funds to understand their strategies and their positions. (emphasis added)

Nevertheless, broadly speaking, my understanding is that the hedge fund industry has become more sophisticated, more diverse, less leveraged and more flexible in the years since LTCM.

BERNANKE: So, again, while it's very important to understand that industry and particularly to make sure that the banks are dealing in appropriate ways with hedge funds, my sense is that on net they are a positive force in the American financial system.

SARBANES: Do you think these issues contain a sufficient danger in them that it would warrant the Fed undertaking a special examination of these questions, if you were to become the chairman? Because if this went bad on your watch, I mean, there could be tremendous consequences, obviously.

BERNANKE: I think it's useful to have informal contacts to try to understand what's going on in the market, and we have various mechanisms — the Federal Reserve has various mechanisms for learning about this market, in particular working through the various counter- parties that deal with hedge funds.

SARBANES: Well, I commend this area to you as one that ought to have some focus of your attention, otherwise it may well come back to haunt you.

BERNANKE: Thank you.

The Fed also had a meeting on Sept. 15, 2005 with these counter-parties to bring the FTDs into line. As I posted earlier, $1 trillion of Fails to Deliver are still outstanding.

Derivatives Sarbanes Bernanke Mover Mike

Update: As to date of testimony of Bernanke before Committee and Minority leader Sen. Sarbanes

If you look at this chart of the daily trading, courtesy of StockChart, you'll notice that the USD dropped below its 200dma (the red line) in January and then rallied to 91. In my experience this feint below the 200dma is the first indication of a sustained drop below the 200dma. Secondly, the MACD has started to roll over and third, we have rallied into resistance in the 91 area.

Looking at the weekly chart, we appear to have formed a head and shoulder top and the right shoulder looks weak. Breaking the neckline at about 88 would give a target of about 83. In addition, there is divergence in RSI at the peaks. RSI failed to make a new high when the USD peaked above 92.5.

I would say Ben Bernanke's honeymoon is over!

USD Bernanke Mover Mike

San Francisco voters took a stand Tuesday ... and approved the nation's toughest ban on handguns by making it illegal for city residents to possess them.

Proposition H, which requires city residents who already own guns to turn them in to police by April 1, was winning 58 percent to 42 percent with 98 percent of precincts counted.

The measure also makes it illegal to buy, sell, distribute and manufacture firearms and ammunition in the city.

Dr. Phat Tony offers this piece of advice to criminals:

Attention all Criminals:

Are you tired of wondering whether the person you are about to mug has a weapon? Are you constantly worried about getting shot while robbing a person’s home? Have you thought twice about raping a woman for fear she might be packing heat? Is murdering some one more of a chore when they are armed? Well worry no more! Lovely San Francisco should be the destination for your next vacation.

Bottom line: 1.5% of daily trading or $6 Billion daily is involved in naked shorting. The Feds called a meeting of the top 14 firms involved in derivatives, suspected of "unconfirmed trades". Short sales after Jan 3rd, 2005 must be settled after 13 days or the firm is obligated to buy the shares in. Naked short sales prior to Jan 3rd are grandfathered, basically told to sin no more.

Fourteen of the largest derivatives players are likely to report that they are on track to meet an end of April deadline in resolving half their trade confirmation problems when they meet for the second time with the New York Federal Reserve on Thursday.

naked shorting FTDs Mover Mike

Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D) issued a warning to new Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. He said, and I paraphrase: “Your models are wrong, capital is fleeing this country, we may be subjecting ourselves to the possibility of political blackmail, and we (the Legislature) will have to stop it.”

Sarbanes Bernanke Mover Mike

Two former Refco Inc. employees said there were times the company failed to execute trades on behalf of customers because it had used the securities in client accounts to support other transactions.

“On occasion Refco was short and could not make the delivery,” Vera Kovar, who worked on VR (Global Partners)’s transactions, said in her deposition. “If a counter-party didn’t deliver the security to us we could not deliver it because we didn’t have it.”

Fails to deliver Refco Mover Mike

Physicists have found that shortly before and after stock market crashes, stock prices start to follow distinctive patterns, somewhat like those found in heartbeats and earthquakes.

he tipoff could either “compensate for or neutralize the crashes, or make them worse.”

In the spirit of predictions let's keep track of Timothy Middleton

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gold Stock market Timothy Middleton

Update: Physicists Predict Stock Market Crashes Now some charts are included!

So try not to laugh when someone says these are the world’s greatest athletes, despite a paucity of blacks that makes the Winter Games look like a GOP convention.

Whites are forever being accused of being racist. To me, Gumbel's remarks are racist!

Capital flows into the United States fell to $56.6 billion in December after hitting a revised $91.6 billion in November, the Treasury Department said Wednesday. The decline was led by a drop in private investors' purchases of Treasury bonds and notes. Investors purchased $12.7 billion of Treasuries in December versus $50.8 billion in November. Official institutions bought $5.6 billion of Treasury bonds and notes in December, up from $3.7 billion in November. Net foreign purchases of long-term domestic securities were $74.2 billion. U.S. investors increased their purchases of foreign-issued securities in December, buying $17.6 billion in foreign bonds and equities, the Treasury said. (Emphasis added)

the US Trade deficit for December, 2005 was $65.68 billion, slightly higher than economists' median forecast for $65.0 billion and up from November's $64.69 billion.

Capital flows Trade deficitMover Mike

Update: I was wrong about this gap being the biggest. Dan Norcini at JSMineset has this chart showing Balance of Trade vs Net Capital Flows

Update: