Delphi made its decision today that could bring on a strike and idle GM.

...today, there are reports that the Company is planning to (i) close 21 of 29 plants, (ii) dismiss 8,500 salaried workers, (iii) cut the hourly wages of some 35,000 workers, and (iv) ask a judge permission to void its legal obligations to workers.

Bill Cara is unhappy with the Delphi/GM state of affairs. More power to him for his anger.

At what point, in grasping for the bottom of the economic barrel, do U.S. legislators come to the realization that America needs to legally restructure defined benefit pension plans, corporate bankruptcy, executive compensation, ‘private capital’ regulation, and on and on.

Delphi GM Finance

Have US citizens finally had enough?

...the American flag vandal at Montebello H.S. (from Michelle Malkin)

The estimated crowd of 500,000 (in LA) proudly carried tens of thousands of Mexican flags and US flags.

We have some profound changes taking place in this country and there doesn't seem to be any consensus on a solution to the problem. Let's also stipulate that this guest worker or amnesty program passes. That doesn't stop further immigration. What do we do when another 11 to 12 million move here illegally?

IllegalImmigration

Update:

From Chron.com,

Austria's trade union federation will sell embattled Bank Fuer Arbeit und Wirtschaft (BAWAG), the country's fourth-largest bank, after revelations that it lost about 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) in soured currency speculation deals in the Caribbean.

Another casualty of Refco.

Bawag Refco Finance

Jill Carroll is freed. Kidnapped in January in Baghdad she is returned unharmed.

Union expects Delphi to void contracts

United Auto Workers union leaders in Detroit have notified local presidents that they expect Delphi Corp. to file motions Friday morning asking a bankruptcy judge to void its existing contract with the union.

Chart of the day is this chart of single family home prices since 1970.

It says it is inflation adjusted, but to me it looks like much of the tangible assets, all going up in price, inflation or so it seems. It really is a picture of the fall of the dollar.

From Regime Change Iran

The U.S. intelligence community has concluded that U.N. Security Council sanctions would fail to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program.

(Josh) Bolten (the Goldman Sachs guy) wants Snow replaced at U.S. Treasury

Among the names being mentioned to replace Snow were Henry Paulson, chief executive of Goldman Sachs; John Mack, chief executive of Morgan Stanley, and Richard Parsons, chairman of Time Warner...

The guys involved in the capping of Gold want to be totally in charge of the hen house. Who is 990N?

From the WSJ,

In the wake of the Dubai ports uproar and with an election eight months away, Republicans and Democrats are competing to advance measures that would increase executive-branch and congressional scrutiny over foreign mergers and acquisitions in the U.S.

Jill Carroll Delphi Home Prices Iran Josh Bolton

From The Daily Star in Lebanon (next door to Syria), Time for Gulf economies to increase gold reserves

There are ample reasons for this (Gold) price hike: The U.S. trade deficit has spiraled out of control. Compared to its economic base, the accumulated debt in U.S. dollars has become too high to be effectively repaid; it will either default or will more likely be inflated to such an extent that it won't hurt to "pay" it back.

The article goes on to say there is a gap between production of gold and demand and the central banks have filled that demand, which is what I've been saying for months.

Apart from scrap supplies, the most important filling of the gap comes from the central banks, which sell and lease gold into the market. The latter activity is especially tricky and has led to a huge derivative short position in the gold market: Western central banks mainly lease gold to commercial banks, which sell it into the market, the central banks earn a lease rate and the commercial banks invest the proceedings of the sales in higher-yielding assets like bonds, for example. Everybody could be happy, but there is one problem: the gold still exists as an asset on the books of the central banks and as a liability on the books of commercial banks or hedge funds, while the actual physical gold has left the vaults a long time ago and now hangs around the necks of the women of the world, who are the "ultimate longs" in the market without even knowing it. It is inconceivable that this short position can be covered at current prices and the market seems to reckon that at some point the central banks won't be able to cover the supply gap because they will run out of gold or won't be willing to sell more of one of their most valuable assets. (all emphasis added)

This is the future for those shorts

MMG Arrows, a Japanese broker of precious metals futures traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, has defaulted on payment to Japan Commodity Clearing House for losses made on this week's gold, platinum and silver trades.

Further on in the article is this bombshell:

Individuals in the Gulf countries seem to be well-prepared for these developments, as they are the second-most important buyers of gold in the world after India, but the central banks of the region have not shown the same amount of foresight yet. Their gold reserves are very low, both on an absolute and a relative level. Four countries - the U.A.E., Oman, Qatar and Bahrain - have sold out nearly all of their gold while Kuwait has leased out its complete reserves with uneasy prospects of return, should third parties default.

Gold Gold Reserves Trade Deficit USD Finance

Hey, Lesley Kennedy at Rocky Mountain News has the dish on the clothes and shoes worn by American Idol Contestants. I checked on Katharine McPhee. She wore a purple dress on March 21st.

and some sexy high heeled sling-back sandals.

The dress retails for $884 and can be purchased now for $479. The shoes can be purchased for $228!

Am I wrong? Isn't that a lot of money for a dress and shoes?

American Idol Katharine McPhee Entertainment

From News24.com

In addition, the spokesperson of the manoeuvres, Rear-Admiral Mohammad Ebrahim Dehghan told state television that the strait of Hormouz will be one of the focal points of the exercise.

"Some 80% of the Persian Gulf's oil is shipped out of this strait over which Iran has dominant and accurate control," he said.

"If the enemy wants to make the area insecure, he should be rest assured that he will also suffer from the insecurity, since we know the location of their vessels," he added.

Iran strait of Hormouz Nuclear Weapons

Iran Defiantly Rejects New U.N. Demands

Update:

Do you remember yesterday when I wrote about The Myth: Rising Rates Bad for Gold? Here's the chart I was searching for to illustrate my point, and I found it of all places on Don Luskin's site:

This is a perfect illustration of why I said GFMS Ltd should be ashamed for putting out this myth. The chart shows that gold and interest rates rise together and fall together, except for that one period from 1997 to 2002. I wrote about that period in Gibson's Paradox

Here's the crux of the problem with so many economists. They have viewed the gold price since 1996 as benign, and concluded there was no inflation. It was in 1996 that the Central banks and the bullion banks started to sell leased gold to support the carry trade. The object was to suppress the price of gold and throw off the wrong signals to the investment community. Now they have put themselves into a box that will result in massively higher prices of gold, a falling dollar and higher interest rates.

Don Luskin Gold Finance

From Gold raced to a new 25-year peak on Thursday ($586.20!)and silver spiked to its highest in more than 22 years as fund managers pumped more money into commodities ahead of the quarter-end.

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Did he get you back in yet? Timothy Middleton has not recommended buying gold since it's peak and now gold has taken out $579. He has written Defend your portfolio with ETFs with no mention of gold ETF (GLD) or Ibbotson's findings

“that precious metals performed best when they were needed the most by providing positive returns during the years that traditional asset classes had negative returns. Ibbotson determined that investors can potentially improve the risk-to-reward ratio in conservative, moderate and aggressive portfolios by including precious metals bullion with allocations of 7.1%, 12.5% and 15.7% respectively.”

Timothy Middleton Gold Finance Mover Mike

From Yahoo News, GM shares down over 4 percent on Delphi worries

Delphi has said it must reach at least a framework for an agreement by Thursday or it will file court papers Friday to reject its current contracts.

Such a filing could prompt a strike at Delphi, potentially shutting down GM plants and forcing the automaker to burn through billions of dollars a week, analysts have said.

The New York Post says

"If there is a long strike, they're both out of business," said Burnham Securities Inc. analyst David Healy, who owns some debt issued by GM's finance unit.

In some surprising news

The world's largest automaker, which lost $10.6 billion in 2005, said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it has received federal subpoenas for investigations on how it handled payments from suppliers and also for its transactions in precious metals for its manufacturing operations.

Bloomberg reports it as

The automaker also said in the filing that it ``recently'' received Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenas related to selling and then repurchasing precious metals and a federal grand jury subpoena relating to supplier credits.

GM Precious Metals Delphi Mover Mike

Here's the latest bunch of crap fed to us by Bloomberg, of all news sources on March 29th,

Gold Drops as Investment Appeal Eroded by U.S. Rate Outlook

It is less attractive to hold gold when interest rates rise because the precious metal does not yield a fixed return, unlike bonds.

``The hill that gold has to climb is getting steeper and steeper as interest rates go up,'' said Paul Walker, chief executive officer of London-based research company GFMS Ltd., said today in an interview.

Since June of 2004, when Fed Funds hit 1%, short-term interest rates have been propped up 15 times by the Fed and gold has risen, and risen, and risen. Here's interest rates and oil:

and gold was $398.70 on 7/2/04. It is trading today at $572.40

Maybe, you say it is different this time. No! The late '70s saw gold go up as interest rates went up. Gold started in 1971 at $42 and peaked at $850 in 1980!

So how will you know when it is time to sell your gold? Right now, the bullion banks want to get out of their shorts by buying from you and keeping investors asleep as to the movement of gold. After they are long gold and you are short then they will use the MSM to feed you another line of bull. That line will say that gold is the only investment there is that will protect you. As you cover your shorts and buy, they will be selling all their gold to you at tremendously higher prices. It's a great game for them and you will be skinned like a "rube" if you do what the press advocates.

You want to "stick it to the man"? First buy gold or silver in whatever form you prefer, then take delivery of it. They will be competing with you for supply and by taking delivery, you have eliminated the ability of someone to loan your supply to them.

BTW, Who is GFMS, Ltd.?

GFMS is the world's foremost precious metals consultancy, specialising in research into the global gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets.

GFMS is based in London, UK, but has representation in Australia, India, China, Germany, Spain and Russia, and a vast range of contacts and associates across the world.

Our research team of fifteen full-time analysts comprises qualified and experienced economists and geologists; while two consultants contribute insights on important regional markets.

Executive Chairman Philip Klapwijk and CEO Paul Walker appear regularly at international conferences and seminars, and their articles have been widely published. All analysts travel regularly and extensively to stay in touch with GFMS' unrivalled network of contacts and sources of information around the world.

They should be ashamed for spreading this nonsense!

On February 21st, 2005, their forecast for gold price for the year:$416 to $503 and Average $461. For the week of 2/25/2005:

O=432.5 H=438.2 L=432.5 C=436.1

With gold at $436 and the average estimated to be $461, I wouldn't be to excited to buy gold.

Gold Precious Metals Finance Mover Mike

Yahoo News says

The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council agreed on a statement Wednesday demanding that Iran suspend uranium enrichment, setting the stage for the first action by the powerful body over fears that Tehran wants a nuclear weapon.

[...]

The West believes council action will help isolate Iran and put new pressure on it to clear up suspicions about its intentions. They have proposed an incremental approach, refusing to rule out sanctions.

U.S. officials have said the threat of military action must also remain on the table.

Russia and China, both allies of Iran, oppose sanctions.

[...]

In Moscow on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov repeated his stance that Moscow would not support the use of force to solve the Iranian nuclear problem.

You can demand all you want, but if you rule out sanctions and oppose using force, you are not making a credible demand. You are only talking, giving Iran more time to achieve its ends. There is no sovereign power that will accede to these demands. It appears Europe has learned no lessons since giving Czechoslovakia to the Germans in WWII.

UN Iran Nuclear Weapons Mover Mike

Ok, so I've had an hour to think about the AI show and at first I was disappointed and it was tough to pick the worst.

Lisa had a lot to prove and she failed to win me over.

Kellie was cute as a bug, she kicked the dumb country girl, looked more like a Carrie Underwood, but missed on the song choice.

Ace just does nothing for me.

My man Taylor sang Trouble. I thought he sang it well with feeling, however not too different from LaMontagne's version

Mandisa sang a gospel, too over the top and I'm sorry, but I can't get past those thighs!

Chris, great song, but he's become a "johnny-one-note".

Katharine, singing a Christine Aguilera song, The Voice Within. I love this song and have played it 50,000 times (exaggeration), but it was just alright. It started slow, she nailed the second half of the song, but she is a little weak on the high notes. She is just so darn hot!

Bucky is a cowboy singing a cowboy song. It was better than Lisa, not a top five singer!

Paris nailed the song, but it was not the right song for a 16 year old to sing.

Elliot sang with soul this man can sing, the soulman, my tops for the night.

I don't care if it is Lisa, Ace, Bucky or Mandisa. I'm picking Bucky to go.

American Idol Entertainment Katharine McPhee Mover Mike

Rob Kirby is quoted at Le Metropole Cafe (by subscription only, but a free trial is available)

I wonder if it's a coincidence that Dubya's new chief of staff (Josh Bolton) just happens to be a former Goldman Sachs director. Seems the most pressing issues facing this Administration might not be exactly as advertised - seems to me it's all about the Broken Monetary System and what to do next. This is why they need to bring a Goldman insider on board - the web of deceit is obviously too complex to bring anyone else up the curve.

Amazing.

Bolten’s recent background:

Currently, OMB [office of mangement and budget] Director Goldman Sachs Executive Director, Legal & Government Affairs 1994-99 Council on Foreign Relations member

You may recall that Robert Rubin was from Goldman Sachs and he was primarily responsible for the capping of gold to indicate inflation was low and to keep interest rates down.

As I've posted about before, Goldman Sachs is long April Gold contracts and short a huge pile of December Gold contracts on the Japanese Commodity exchange (TOCOM). I wouldn't want to be short, but then I don't have a "pipeline" to the FED and Treasury, like these guys do. Still, at the end of the day, central banks are short 12,000 to 16,000 tons of gold and I wouldn't want to hold that position either.

Josh Bolton Goldman Sachs Finance Mover Mike

As Ross Perot would say, "Now that's just sad! From the WSJ, GMAC Sale in Doubt

After a few days of positive headlines, General Motors once again had bad news for investors. After the closing bell, the struggling auto maker's GMAC financing unit said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it was not certain it would be able to sell a stake in itself after all.

Reuters reports, Credit investors ponder GM-sized hole in universe

There is no understating the scale of GM's problems...GM, or its financing arm GMAC, is present in around 65 percent of synthetic collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), according to Standard & Poor's, and underlies an estimated $1 trillion of default swaps.

Can you spell "derivatives" boys and girls?

D-E-R-I-V-A-T-I-V-E-S!

Then Reuters points out

"A bankruptcy filing is unlikely this year," said Christophe Boulanger, auto analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "Unless Delphi goes on strike — in which case they would stop production and it would all be over."

A bankruptcy of GM would be carnage.

Part of that carnage would be in the back offices of financial institutions, which will have literally millions of transactions to unwind, and banks are already under regulator pressure over backlogs in credit derivatives.

There's that word again, derivatives, Derivatives, DERIVATIVES!

GM GMAC Derivatives Finance Mover Mike

From MarketWatch,

General Motors after halting trade of its shares, said late Tuesday it will restate financial results for its financing arm, GMAC, from 2003 through the third quarter of 2005. The restatement relates to the improper classification and presentation of cash flows for certain mortgage loans. The company said the restatement won't impact previously reported total cash and cash equivalents and it will have no effect on GMAC's income. In a 10-K filing for GMAC, the company warned that further credit downgrades "jeopardize our ability to continue operations.

GM GMAC Finance Mover Mike

Are you familiar with Altman's Z-Score? This is a new one on me, since I was a broker. Everything, with the aid of a computer, is so much simpler today. I used to spend hours calculating ratios by hand and then comparing them on a legal pad. Wow, am I getting old!

Hat tip to Bill Cara for mentioning the Altman's Z-Score in relation to GM. The Z-score was developed by Edward I. Altman, Professor and Vice-Director of New York University's Salomon Center, Leonard N. Stern School of Business,

from an analysis of 33 Chapter X-bankrupt manufacturing companies with average assets of $6.4 million, and, as controls, another 33 companies with assets between $1 million and $25 million.

Altman's Z-score calculates five ratios:
1. return on total assets,
2. sales to total assets,
3. equity to debt,
4. working capital to total assets, and
5. retained earnings to total assets.

These ratios are then multiplied by a predetermined weight factor, and the results are added together. The final number--the Z-score--yields a number between -4 and +8. Financially-sound companies show Z-scores above 2.99, while those scoring below 1.81 are in fiscal danger, maybe even heading toward bankruptcy. Scores that fall between these ends indicate potential trouble. In Altman's initial study of 33 bankrupt companies, Z-scores for 95 % of these companies pointed to trouble or imminent bankruptcy.

Cara is concerned that the Z-Score for GM is 1.08, and could imply pending bankruptcy or at least, in his words, the stock is only a speculation!

So, in light of the Z-Score information coupled with Ask Uncle Bill and his statement

Today, PE's are down, companies have strong balance sheets, and tons of cash laying around burning a hole in the pockets of management. (emphasis added)

what is the Z-Score for GE and the other 28 dow Jones Industrials?

AA	1.92
AXP	N/A
AIG	N/A
BA	1.82
CAT	2.13
C	N/A
KO	6.59
DD	2.49
PFE	3.25
XOM	5.32
GE	0.61
GM	1.08
HON	2.34
HPQ	2.90
HD	6.62
INTC	7.97
IBM	2.61
VZ	1.23
JPM	N/A
JNJ	7.76
MCD	3.15
MRK	3.29
MSFT	10.28
MMM	5.57
MO	2.59
PG	4.27
UTX	2.69
WMT	1.96
DIS	2.13
F	1.33

The financial stocks like Citigroup and JP Morgan get a N/A. Ford (F) is not in DJIA, but just shown for comparison to GM.

By this quick analysis 14 of the 30 are under 2.99 and "indicate potential trouble." Ten percent, GE, GM and VZ, are "in fiscal danger, maybe even heading toward bankruptcy".

Why look at the 30 Dow Industrial stocks? Because, this is the cream of American Business and the largest companies in the US. If anything they can be considered the trend setters. Also keep in mind, Dow Jones for appearance sake wants to showcase these companies. They want to see the DJIA ever higher.

Now if you want to do some quick research on your investments go to http://www.advfn.com. It is free but you will need to register.

One more piece of business. In the Carnival of Investing, hosted by Fat Pitch Financials, The Dividend Guy posts Stock Analysis - My Approach with GE, he singles out GE as a company that has a great record of dividend increases, plugs in the financial data of GE using the Stock Selection Guide originated by the National Assn. of Investment Clubs and comes out with a price range:

GE is a SELL in the $51.83 to $63.52 range
MAYBE in the $40.15 to $51.83 range and
BUY in the $28.46 to $40.15 range. The share price of GE was $35.57. He says

At the end of the day, I was comfortable with my analysis and decided to buy GE. Time will tell if this was a good move or not, but at least I will be getting a steadily increasing dividend.

I pointed out to The Dividend Guy, in the comment section, that the website of GE says

As a result of GE's restatement of its financial information in its amended 2004 Form 10-K dated May 6, 2005, readers should no longer rely on our previously filed financial statements and other financial information for the years and for each of the quarters in the years 2004, 2003, 2002 and 2001. Readers should also no longer rely on our previously announced results for the first quarter of 2005. (emphasis added)

His comment section did not take my comments, so apparently he may be sleeping comfortably.

Altman's+Z-Score 30 Dow Jones Industrials Finance Mover Mike

Someone has to take the fall for what the Washington Post calls

a series of mishaps, including the failed Supreme Court nomination of Harriet Miers, the bungled federal response to Hurricane Katrina, the slow public disclosure of Vice President Cheney's shooting accident and the unexpected Republican revolt over a plan to turn over management at a half dozen ports to an Arab-owned company.

That person is not going to be George W. Bush, so Andrew Card fills the bill.

(Andrew) Card has held the top staff job at the White House longer than any person since Sherman Adams under President Dwight D. Eisenhower and had earned enormous respect within the building and around Washington for his calm professionalism and stamina.

All is perception!

George W Bush Andrew Card Mover Mike

Back on October 28th, 2005, I wrote in Palladium and Platinum

...the price of Palladium was up $9 to $221. That's a darn good gain in one day. I took a look at the monthly chart and again, darn, if it doesn't look like it wants to go a lot higher. It was over $340 last year in mid-April and over $1100 in January, 2001.

My guess, it has made a huge base and if it breaks out, $340 would be the first target (up 53%).

On March 27th, 2006, Palladium gained $9 to $337!

Not a bad call, up over 50% in 5 months.

Palladium Precious Metals Mover Mike

Did you happen to watch Tiger Woods on 60 Minutes last night? I was very impressed with his competitiveness. He wants to win, he's focused, he has fun, and he expects to win every time he goes out to play golf (or any other activity, for that matter).

Today in The Oregonian sport section there is a comment from Zach Randolph of the Portland Trail Blazers after their eigth loss in a row to the L.A. Clippers and 22nd loss out of the last 25.

"We're used to this," Randolph said. That team was just a lot better than us."

Can you imagine Tiger Woods ever saying "we're used to losing"?

Tiger Woods Portland Trail Blazers Mover Mike

Update:

Been a while since I brought these men to your attention. With gold at $566 and preparing to break out, it seems timely.

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This past week there were numerous demonstrations across the country, as immigrants were organized to protest any federal legislation that would tighten immigration enforcement. The rallies were organized by unions, church groups, socialist activists, civil rights advocates, and immigrant organizations to demand free immigration rights as their due and protest the "unjust laws" of our nation.

Los Angeles had the nation's largest mobilization of immigrants ever, which the LA Times described as "boisterous" and "spirited" and "mostly peaceful": "The marchers included both longtime residents and the newly arrived, bound by a desire for a better life and a love for this county." ("Newly arrived" being a politically-correct euphemism for "illegal".) The estimated crowd of 500,000 proudly carried tens of thousands of Mexican flags, which belied the blissful claim that they are "bound by a love for this country".

"There has never been this kind of mobilization in the immigrant community ever," said Joshua Hoyt, executive director of the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights. "They have kicked the sleeping giant. It's the beginning of a massive immigrant civil rights struggle."

In Georgia, many Latinos protested a newly passed bill aimed at curbing illegal immigration by not working or shopping for the day. Guess what? The state's economy didn't collapse! A small American rally in Temecula, CA, focused on border security and law enforcement. We also saw peaceably demonstrating American citizens attacked by an unruly crowd of pro-illegal immigration and socialist protesters in Indiana.

Photo by Freedom Folks This week, our Senate continues the debate on illegal immigration, with an upcoming vote on the McCain-Kennedy Amnesty bill. And, pressing for his "guest worker" program, our President repeats the tired (and untrue) refrain that our country needs these workers to do what Americans won't:

Carnival of Investing and Carnival of the Capitalists are both up.

Carnival of Investing is hosted by Fat Pitch Financials.
Carnival of the Capitalists is hosted by Decker Marketing. Have fun reading!

I'm so pissed I'm shaking. I made some comments on Ask Uncle Bill regarding his post Market Psychology or The Wall Of Worry and this was his response:

Stick with the furniture moving, Mike. You're out of your league.

Ask Uncle Bill says

The bull market is not over. It is not over because most people don't even think we are in one.

He basically opines that the market is climbing a "wall of worry". Worry about -high oil prices, -Iran and Iraq, -A recession (haven't had one of those for awhile so guess we are due), -the weak dollar, -inverted yield curve, -inflation and/or deflation, -a new Fed chief, -over inflated real estate prices, and -GM and pensions and medical costs.

So the market should go down because there are a lot of things to worry about. Guess what, there are always a lot of things to worry about and, in the past, a lot more worrisome things than those things listed above.

That is all true and the market has a way of discounting the future out to six months or more. That's why the Wall Street adage "sell on good news, buy on bad" is as true today as it ever has been.

Where Ask Uncle Bill goes wrong is in his supportiing evidence for a continued rise in the market.

Today, PE's are down, companies have strong balance sheets, and tons of cash laying around burning a hole in the pockets of management. (emphasis added)

I pointed out to him one area of disagreement in his comment section:

"companies have strong balance sheets" Have you checked out GE's website:

As a result of GE's restatement of its financial information in its amended 2004 Form 10-K dated May 6, 2005, readers should no longer rely on our previously filed financial statements and other financial information for the years and for each of the quarters in the years 2004, 2003, 2002 and 2001. Readers should also no longer rely on our previously announced results for the first quarter of 2005.

Now GE is a member of the 30 Dow Jones Industrials (as is GM, BTW) and that doesn't strike me as a particularly strong endorsement of their balance sheet. GE is also, now one of the largest over the counter derivatives dealers in the world. You know how I feel about derivatives. Why ask me, Warren Buffet said derivatives are WMDs!

Then Ask Uncle Bill said

The perennial weak dollar. Here's the news. The dollar is up, not down.

I said in his comment's section

What you had is a mini rally in a bear market from 80 to 91, after a fall from 120 to 80, Big deal! Now it appears to be rolling over. I won't even bother to critique the rest of your points.

Maybe, I pissed him off with that last sentence,

I won't even bother to critique the rest of your points.

But, seriously, his credibility dropped radically when it was that easy to find errors in his thinking.

You want to piss me off, just insult me without arguing the merits of my comments.

An Ad Hominem

is a general category of fallacies in which a claim or argument is rejected on the basis of some irrelevant fact about the author of or the person presenting the claim or argument. Typically, this fallacy involves two steps. First, an attack against the character of person making the claim, her circumstances, or her actions is made (or the character, circumstances, or actions of the person reporting the claim). Second, this attack is taken to be evidence against the claim or argument the person in question is making (or presenting). This type of "argument" has the following form:

1. Person A makes claim X.
2. Person B makes an attack on person A.
3. Therefore A's claim is false.

Aaaaaah, I feel better now!

GE Troubled Companies Finance Mover Mike

Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is at it again over at Free-Market News Network in THE PERILS OF ECONOMIC IGNORANCE:

I believe one of the greatest threats facing this nation is the willful economic ignorance of the political class. Many of our elected officials at every level have no understanding of economics whatsoever, yet they wield tremendous power over our economy through taxes, regulations, and countless other costs associated with government. They spend your money with little or no thought given to the economic consequences of their actions. It is indeed a tribute to the American entrepreneurial spirit that we have enjoyed such prosperity over the decades; clearly it is in spite of government policies rather than because of them.

You tell 'em Ron!

Ron Paul USD Economics Mover Mike

I just finished reading The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It By James Turk & John Rubino published in 2004. James Turk is founder of GoldMoney.com, the leading digital gold currency payment system. John Rubino is the author of How to Profit from the Real Estate Bust.

I've posted a lot about inflation and gold, the Federal Reserve, and the destruction of the US Dollar. I have read about the inflation that Germany experienced after WWII, the devaluation of the Mexican Peso and the Argentine Peso. If that is our future, I wanted to have some idea of what is in store for us and. The book is divided into four parts and is well written and difficult concepts are explained well:

Part One - Why the dollar will collapse
Part Two - Money Then and Now
Part Three - Wht Gold Will Soar
Part Four - Profiting From The Dollar's Collapse

In part one we learn that we have a fiat currency, backed by nothing except a decree that the US Dollar is legal tender. Throughout history, in order for governments to satisfy demands without raising taxes, a government not only begins to debase its money, but inflates as well. Both are happening in the US and no government has been successful. We have a history of that in this country with the Continentals and the Confederate currency, both worthless.

Another fact that dooms our currency is that we have too much debt. Total unfunded liabilities of the US are in excess of $43 Trillion, as a society we owe another $37 Trillion and Derivatives are in excess of $200 Trillion.

Then we have a trade imbalance which just topped $800 Billion for 2005. We have been up in arms lately by the Chinese wanting to buy Unocal, then Dubai wanting to own our eastern port management companies and Dubai wanting to own some of our critical defense industry by trying to buy Doncasters Turk and Rubino point out on p31:

Foreign investors now own about $8 trillion of U.S. financial assets, including 13 percent of all U.S. stocks, 24 percent of corporate bonds, 43 percent of Treasury bonds, and 14 percent of government agency debt. By the end of 2003, about a third of Fannie Mae's mortgage-backed bonds were being sold outside of the U.S.

That was in 2003 and it has gotten considerably worse. What's in store for us:

Over time, the gap between tax revenue and the demands placed on government tends to grow, and spending, borrowing, and currency creation begin to expand at increasing rates. Inflation accelerates, and the populace comes to see the process of "debasement" for what it is: the destruction of their savings. They abandon the currency en masse, spending it or converting it to more stable forms of money as fast as possible. The currency's value plunges (another way of saying prices soar), wiping out the accumulated savings of a whole generation. Such is the fate of every fiat currency.

The government wants to keep this game going as long as possible by issuing phony CPI numbers, then by excluding energy and food, concentrating on a "core" rate. Phoney low inflation numbers keep bond yields down and "COLA" adjustments low. What is the housing bubble, but selling USDs for a tangible asset. Gold is a warning sign and a rising gold exchange rate is fought by capping and leasing gold, until the central banks are short 12,000 to 16,000 tons. And now one of the tools Turk and Rubino use, The Fear Index, to gauge where gold is going in the next few years will be handicapped by the ending of release of M3 data.

Turk and Rubino do an excellent job of instructing you in Part Four. Can you profit from your knowledge of an impending collapse of the dollar? How can you protect yourself? How can you protect your accumulated savings?

I highly recommend this book to professional and novice, alike.

Book Review The Coming Collapse of the Dollar... James Turk John Rubino Gold Mover Mike

Wow! Four Offshore Oregon earthquakes.

MAP 4.5----2006/03/25 23:23:55-----43.936 -128.162------10.0 316 km (196 mi) WNW of Bandon, OR
MAP 5.0----2006/03/25 20:14:06-----41.939 -125.995------10.0 140 km ( 87 mi) WSW of Gold Beach, OR
MAP 4.1----2006/03/25 03:42:33-----41.812 -125.966------10.0 142 km ( 88 mi) W of Brookings, OR
MAP 5.0----2006/03/25 03:16:04-----41.750 -126.138------10.0 157 km ( 98 mi) WSW of Brookings, OR

Oregon earthquakes geology Mover Mike

Freddie Mac, the No. 2 U.S. home funding source, said on Friday it sold $3 billion of a 30-year Gold MACS (Modifiable and Combinable) strip security with an enhanced combination feature that allows for floater and inverse floater classes.

The weighted average loan age will not be greater than five months, Freddie Mac said in a news release. Settlement is April 20.

The sole lead manager was Goldman Sachs & Co.

Gold MACS are stripped giant certificates with a modifiable and combinable feature that enables investors to exchange a fixed-rate giant participation certificate for interest-only, principal-only, or various synthetic coupon participation certificates from a single strip offering.

"Today's pricing marks the beginning of an expanded Gold MACS program providing investors with large, liquid, syndicate-led issues that are more versatile," Mark Hanson, vice president for mortgage funding at Freddie Mac, said in the news release.

I just love it when you talk to me about synthetic participation in a single strip offering! Sounds like a virtual reality sex game. Do they really know what they are talking about?

Mover Mike

I have been waiting for the right time to share this. In my email conversation with Jeffrey Christian, writing about a peak for gold in April, he indicated the conservative investors he works with "buy and hold". The more aggressive trade the seasons, "out" in April, "in" in November.

With tongue firmly in cheek, I wrote him and said

I like this seasonal lull way of trading. Suppose we go back to 2001 and sell at the close of the end of March or at the high of the month in April and buy back at the end of October or the low in November. How would that have worked for you?

3/30/01 Sold 257.40, or April High of 265.30 10/31/01 Bot 280.50 or Nov Low of 271.9, High for the year 296.0

3/29/02 Sold 303.70, or April High of 312.50 Maximum gain 40.60 10/31/02 Bot 318.40 or Nov Low of 316.50, June High 330.70

3/30/03 Sold 335.9, or April High of 340.40 Maximum gain 23.90 10/31/03 Bot 384.60 or Nov Low of 376.50, Feb high of 384.0

3/30/04 Sold 427.30, or April High of 432.0 Maximum gain 55.50 10/31/04 Bot 429.40 or Nov Low of 418.0, April High of 432 and Dec High of 456

3/30/05 Sold 428.7, or April High of 448.0 Maximum gain 30.00 10/31/05 Bot 466.9 or Nov Low of 456.1, Dec High of 538

Adding up the maximum gains, the total is 150.00.

The gain from 271.90 in Nov of 2001 to Dec. 2005 High of 538 is 267.90!

I'm sure you would have done much better, but you could have done much worse by failing to get back in.

Bootom line his aggressive trader would have captured half of the gain, if he had just bought and held.

Christian's email to me said:

The gain from the 2001 low to the 2006 high, adjusted for riding the waves, is far greater than the straight gain. This is almost doubly true if one not only takes profits at the springtime highs and re-enters after August, but also goes short on the short-term declines.

If you used options, the percentage return on one's commited capital would have been even farther greater.

There are many tools available for informed investors to multiply the profit potential while capitalizing and maximizing returns.

The reality is that our calls did NOT miss getting back in.

And, by using options to hedge one's shorter term negative plays. By selling out at the springtime highs, going short, perhaps by purchasing puts, and hedging against continued strength by purchasing out of the money calls the returns on gold over this period would be far, far better than the rough simple long or neutral ones you calculated.

That is why people pay us our fees.

Why do I bring this up? John Embry, Chief Investment stratagist at Sprott Asset management, who has consistently delivered high returns to his investors has been right about the gold market for quite some time. In a new article in Investors Digest of March, 2006, Embry says

I think calling trading tops in a riobust bull market is a mug's game and gold is most assuredly in an historic bull market.

What's a mug's game? An activity that will not make you happy or successful. Embry is a Canadian after all.

You know I'll be following both men for some time!

gold Jeffrey Christian John Embry Mover Mike

I am into charts. A chart of price movement condenses everything into a picture that tells a story. Some believe that all that has gone before has a bearing on the future and some even believe you can make predictions or even high probabilities based on past action.

This link to a chart of price action in gold since June of 1982 (6/82), shows a huge channel bounded by lower tops since Jan. 1983 (1/83) at $510 and lower bottoms with the last bottom at $253 on Sept. 1999 (9/99). Then in Dec. 2005, the price broke through the top of the channel, ran to $530, came back and tested the breakout, held and it was off to the races.

That channel lasted 23 years! Sometimes, you go up as long as you go sideways in a channel. Suppose, we go up for up for only half that or 11 years. That takes us into 2010. That means this bull market in gold may have at least four more years.

It looks like gold has come a long ways, but we are only three months from ordinary into something extra-ordinary.

gold Gold chart precious metals Mover Mike

So , I got a message from Chris at Powerblogs, saying my domain name will expire Wednesday

I started the renewal process a few days ago, but I'm writing because I've had some problems with the registrar lately. It's possible that they're going to screw up again and the DNS name won't work for a day or so. I'm doing what I can to keep on top of the registrar's tech support (they've been great for years up until the last month or so) to make sure that there's no interruption on the DNS name, but there's a chance that it won't work.

Well. it didn't work and the site at http://www.movermike.com was down. We still had http://movermike.powerblogs.com, but not many knew about the alternate site. Anyway, we are now back up and exploring ways to insure that it doesn't happen again. I hope you missed me!

Mover Mike

There's fallout from the decision by the Bush Administration to outsource our national security to Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.:

China is making friends with some of the worst enemies of the United States, some of the most repressive, reprehensible regimes in all the world, according to CNN host Lou Dobbs.

Christopher Ruddy says

Many Americans already feel neglected by their government over illegal immigration and vulnerable to terrorism due to lax border security.

Maybe, we need to bring back the Clinton way of making government decisions, Polls! This is a security issue and will not poll well with the American people. Who is running this administration, and the country?

Hutchison Whampoa cargo Nuclear weapons Mover Mike

Update: The WaPo says

There are no U.S. customs agents checking any cargo containers at the Hutchison port in Freeport. Under the contract, no U.S. officials would be stationed permanently in the Bahamas with the radiation scanner.

From Bloomberg

Austria's Bawag PSK Bank (Bawag, which owned 10 percent of New York-based Refco from 1999 to 2004) used offshore companies and accounts at Refco Inc. to mask almost 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) of losses from bond and currency investments that put the bank at risk of insolvency in 2000.

Bawag, a bank owned by the country's Federation of Trade Unions, shifted the losses to companies including six firms on the Caribbean island of Anguilla, and wrote them down over time, Chief Executive Officer Ewald Nowotny said at a press conference in Vienna today.

[...]

The revelation of Bawag's hidden losses may have ripple effects across the Atlantic in the bankruptcy case of U.S. futures broker Refco Inc.

Bawag Refco Finance Mover Mike

Update:

Of course you know the Afghan Abdul Rahman was sentenced to death for being born a Muslim and converting to Christianity.

Condi Rice has appealed to President Hamid Karzai yesterday

seeking a "favorable resolution" of the case.

President Bush has chimed in saying

he is "deeply troubled" by the case and expects the country to "honor the universal principle of freedom."

The Afghan clerics insist an example must be made of Rahman, since he humiliated the God of Islam by switching to Christianity. If not and he returns to society, the mob of Muslims will literally tear him to pieces! If he were permitted to go into exile in the West

...others will claim to be Christian so they can too.

Rahman may have converted while in Germany, where he lived for nine years, before returning to Afghanistan in 2002. If he knew that he would be violating the laws of this Muslim nation by returning, then he will suffer the consequences of his actions. Maybe, he is doing God's will by converting and like Daniel in the lion pit will be saved by God, or maybe he will be hanged or torn apart by the mob and become a martyr inspiring many others to overthrow their chains of Islam and enjoy the fruits of "universal freedom". Or, maybe 15 days after he is gone Abdul Rahman will be forgotten, save for his family.

Abdul Rahman Islam Afghanistan Mover Mike

Update: The WaPo comments

Update:

Who thinks these things are going to fly with the American people?

...the Bush administration is hiring a Hong Kong conglomerate to help detect nuclear materials inside cargo passing through the Bahamas to the United States and elsewhere.

[...]

Hutchison Whampoa is the world's largest ports operator and among the industry's most-respected companies. It was an early adopter of U.S. anti-terror measures. But its billionaire chairman, Li Ka-Shing, also has substantial business ties to China's government that have raised U.S. concerns over the years.

"Li Ka-Shing is pretty close to a lot of senior leaders of the Chinese government and the Chinese Communist Party," said Larry M. Wortzel, head of a U.S. government commission that studies China security and economic issues. But Wortzel said Hutchison operates independently from Beijing, and he described Li as "a very legitimate international businessman."

Are we really going to base our security on foreigners and use words like

Li Ka-Shing is pretty close to a lot of senior leaders of the Chinese government and the Chinese Communist Party

"could provide a conduit for illegal shipments of technology or prohibited items from the West to the PRC (People's Republic of China)

the administration believes the pending deal with the foreign company would be safe (based on what, exactly)

Giving a no-bid contract to a foreign company to carry out the most sensitive security screening for radioactive materials at ports abroad raises many questions

Hutchison Whampoa nuclear materials Cargo Mover Mike

Update:

From InvestorsOffshore.com,

Bawag (the Bank für Arbeit und Wirtschaft), the trade-union-owned Austrian bank which provided the fatal US$421m loan to Philip Bennett of Refco which led to his downfall and the company's collapse, has called a press conference for Friday after Austrian press reports cast doubt on its financial stability.

Bawag and Liquid Opportunity Fund jointly owned the six companies incorporated in Anguilla that owned $525 Million in fake bonds.

First, Bawag makes a $421 Million loan secured by Refco stock and now it owns companies with $525 in fake bonds, and rumors are circulating about its financial strength! Whatever for?

Bawag Liquid Opportunity Fund Refco Finance

Update: Reuters is reporting

BAWAG, which remained tight-lipped in public, has told inquiring Austrian regulators the bonds had been used to write down offshore losses "in a balance sheet-friendly way", said a person familiar with the bank's version of the story. (Emphasis added)

BAWAG gave no details beyond saying that losses related to offshore dealings -- which some Austrian newspapers put as high as 1 billion euros -- had been accounted for in past years, and that there were no more losses to come in the future.

I wasn't surprised at the reaction to the proposed sale of the management of the Eastern ports contracts to Dubai. This email I received today typifies our reaction and the administration should have been prepared.

WHAT'S ALL THE FUSS?

"Are we fighting a war on terror or aren't we? Was it or was it not started by Islamic people who brought it to our shores on September 11, 2001?

Were people from all over the world, mostly Americans, not brutally murdered that day, in downtown Manhattan, across the Potomac from our nation's capitol and in a field in Pennsylvania?

Did nearly three thousand men, women and children die a horrible, burning or crushing death that day, or didn't they?

And I'm supposed to care that a copy of the Koran was "desecrated" when an overworked American soldier kicked it or got it wet?

Well, I don't. I don't care at all.

I'll start caring when Osama bin Laden turns himself in and repents for incinerating all those innocent people on 9/11.

I'll care about the Koran when the fanatics in the Middle East start caring about the Holy Bible, the mere possession of which is a crime in Saudi Arabia.

I'll care when Abu Musab al-Zarqawi tells the world he is sorry for hacking off Nick Berg's head while Berg screamed through his gurgling slashed throat.

I'll care when the cowardly so-called "insurgents" in Iraq come out and fight like men instead of disrespecting their own religion by hiding in mosques.

I'll care when the mindless zealots who blow themselves up in search of nirvana care about the innocent children within range of their suicide bombs.

I'll care when the American media stops pretending that their First Amendment liberties are somehow derived from international law instead of the United States constitution's Bill of Rights.

In the meantime, when I hear a story about a brave marine roughing up an Iraqi terrorist to obtain information, know this: I don't care.

When I see a fuzzy photo of a pile of naked Iraqi prisoners who have been humiliated in what amounts to a college hazing incident, rest assured that I don't care.

When I see a wounded terrorist get shot in the head when he is told not to move because he might be booby-trapped, you can take it to the bank that

I don't care.

When I hear that a prisoner, who was issued a Koran and a prayer mat, and fed "special" food that is paid for by my tax dollars, is complaining that his holy book is being "mishandled," you can absolutely believe in your heart of hearts that I don't care.

And oh, by the way, I've noticed that sometimes it's spelled "Koran" and other times "Quran." Well, Jimmy Crack Corn and ---- you guessed it - -

I don't care ! ! ! ! !

I have only two words to write after that diatribe:

ME, TOO!

I have been reading two books the last few weeks, one is from a best selling author known to keep you awake at night. You just know for sure there is someone standing there in the shadows, as happened in Gerald's Game. I'm writing about Stephen King. The book I'm reading is Cell, a book set in next week when our cell phones go terribly wrong.

The other book is One Point Safe, copyright 1997, written by Andrew and Leslie Cockburn.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the cold war may have come to an end. But, the deadly Soviet nuclear arsenal - thousands of warheads and hundreds of tons of plutonium - continues to sit virtually unguarded, presenting the world with a new and even more terrifying nuclear threat. And it's not just criminals, extremists, or terrorists who are now in a position to place us all at risk.

It is also Russia's High military command...

The movie Peacemaker starring George Clooney and Nicole Kidman was based on this book. This is the story of a crumbling empire littered with 45,000 nuclear weaponsc consisting of tactical missile warheads, artillary shells and bombs. Weapons that have little or no security, guarded by people desperate for food, preyed upon by smugglers called "night people" and Russian Mafia, a starving military and countries seeking all the tools for nuclear bombs to be used against the West.

It is more scary than King, because we have leaky borders. Late in the book, the authors write about a top secret study for the NSC

to test the ways that a nuclear warhead could be brought across the borders. Special Forces teams carrying simulated nuclear bombs made dozens of dummy runs using every conceivable means, including trucks, small planes and boats. None were intercepted.

Nothing happened...The potential problem was too enormous. The government...forgot about the whole issue.

It is also the story of how our government worked in the '90s and how the Russians left parts of their soil so polluted that it is dangerous to walk upon. It's a scary book, because the next bomb that goes off in a US building could be nuclear.

Stephen King you have been one-upped!

Stephen King One Point Safe uclear weapons

Update:

California is considering "the scarlet letter for drunken drivers" according to the SacBee.

A California lawmaker wants to force two-time offenders to attach red license plates with the letters DUI, for "driving under the influence," to their vehicles - a rolling advertisement of their crimes.

Assemblyman Ray Haynes, R-Murrieta, displays a mock license plate in his Capitol office that he believes should be affixed to vehicles driven by repeat DUI offenders. Haynes has introduced AB 2099, which would authorize the DMV to issue the plates in hopes of encouraging more responsible behavior in those twice convicted of drunken driving.

California DUI Law enforcement

According to Various and Sundry, post AI5 - I Walk The Line, Chris Daughtry, last night sang I Walk the Line. Someone made it seem like Chris came up with this version, which was a unique way to sing Johnny Cash's famous song. You can go to the American Idol to hear Chris singing. He's the fourth contestant. Now go here to the 25:25 minute mark to hear Live's version sung 12/07/2004. Sounds pretty much the same to me.

American Idol Chris Daughtry Entertainment

Hat tip to Jim Sinclair at JSMineSet:

As a result of GE's restatement of its financial information in its amended 2004 Form 10-K dated May 6, 2005, readers should no longer rely on our previously filed financial statements and other financial information for the years and for each of the quarters in the years 2004, 2003, 2002 and 2001. Readers should also no longer rely on our previously announced results for the first quarter of 2005. (emphasis added)

So all of the GE financial statements and all the GE press reports and all of the GE research from brokerage houses and all of the GE loan agreements are fiction. All of the value you attributed to GE when you made your stock transactions is fiction. That's incredible!

Jim Sinclair says

General Electric, who used to make refrigerators, radios, toasters and various other home appliances, is now one of the largest over the counter derivatives dealers in the world.

GE Derivatives Finance

Update:

USS Cape St. George (CG 71) and USS Gonzalez (DDG 66) returned fire on a group of suspected pirates (who appeared ready to fire an RPG at them) in the Indian Ocean, killing one and wounding five, approximately 25 nautical miles off the central eastern coast of Somalia in international waters at 5:40 a.m. local time, March 18.

A guided missile cruiser is a cruiser that carries guided missiles - a large fast warship; smaller than a battleship and larger than a destroyer.

A guided missile destroyer -

is a small fast lightly armored but heavily armed warship.

American warships have stepped up patrols off the Somali coast. This is in response to the increase in pirate attacks in the area (from two in 2004 to at least 35 in 2005.) The piracy has prevented shipments of food aid, which two million Somalis, in danger of starvation because of prolonged drought, desperately need.

EagleSpeak has more.

USS Cape St. George USS Gonzalez Pirates

Madeleine Albright:

I am somebody who finds a lot of fun in the possibility of being able to make decisions that have an effect on Americans, on our foreign policies and in trying to solve problems.

Hat tip to The Drudge Report

God, please protect us from fun seeking government employees!

Madeleine Albright Government Service Politics

Last week the House ducked legislation on the Online Freedom of Speech Act, a bill sponsored by Rep. Jeb Hensarling, Texas Republican.

The bill is designed to allow political blogs, e-mails and other types of individual online communication to continue operating free from FEC regulations. So now that role has been handed over to the FEC:

From the Washinton Times, Bloggers from both sides oppose FEC regulations

Conservative and liberal bloggers both worry their freedom of speech is threatened by proposed campaign-finance rules that seek to regulate online political speech.

The Federal Election Commission is expected tomorrow to outline rules that could limit political Web logs and e-mail solicitations and would be similar to campaign-finance laws that apply to more traditional advocacy groups, such as the AFL-CIO and the National Rifle Association.

Update: FEC Won't Regulate Internet Politics

The Federal Election Commission decided Monday that the nation's new campaign finance law will not apply to most political activity on the Internet.

In a 6-0 vote, the commission decided to regulate only paid political ads placed on another person's Web site.

And from my friends at Guard the Borders this urge to action on pending legislation:

Reminder: Help STOP the McCain-Kennedy Mass Immigration Bill

We posted about this in Monday's Guard the Borders Blogburst, which contains all the details about this bill. We utilized the Blogburst as a call to action and sincerely hope that our readers took us up on it. If you used the resource of NumbersUSA.org, then it probably took you less than 5 minutes to accomplish.

If you haven’t taken action yet - here’s your chance. You’ve only got three more days - the bill comes up for a vote on Monday!

Here’s an update from NumbersUSA:

SEND FREE FAX Senator Edward Kennedy (D-MA) Senator John McCain (R-AZ)

It won’t surprise you that Ted Kennedy wants to BURDEN AMERICA with . . . . . . 30 Million more Foreign Workers and dependents!! But did you know that Sen. John McCain is working with him to pass the McCain-Kennedy Mass Immigration bill, S. 1033? The Senate may take up the McCain-Kennedy bill as early as next week! Our inside sources on Capitol Hill say if the McCain-Kennedy bill comes up for a vote, more than half of the Senators now plan to vote for it. Make sure your Senators are not among them! Click the button below to send a Free Fax asking your Senators to stop S. 1033, a massive immigration increase which will add 30 million more foreign workers and their dependents over the next decade. SEND FREE FAX Join with hundreds of thousands of citizens who make their voices heard through NumbersUSA, a non-profit, non-partisan immigration-reduction organization. NumbersUSA, 1601 N. Kent St., Arlington, VA 22209.Y

READERS: If you took action on this immigration bill by faxing your Senators, please post a comment to let us know. We’re curious!

Online Freedom of Speech Act Kennedy Mass Immigration Bill politics

Update:

Wow, that was some show. Highlights for me were Mandisa, Paris, Chris, Katharine, Taylor, Elliot and Kellie. Not so favorites were Bucky, who is too unpolished, Kevin Corvais, the scrawney chicken, Lisa, I keep thinking of Ted Mack and the Amateur Hour, Tucker; and Ace Young.

The group voting for the worst, Kevin will probably be able to keep him around for another week. That leaves Bucky, who I would guess is going home. It should have been Kevin last week and Melissa was penalized for forgetting her words. It should be Kevin, who butchered his song, it was a complete mess, but it will be Bucky.

Paris out-sang Mandisa, Chris out-sang Ace, and Katharine unbound, swayed to to a classic Ella. My god she is good!

American Idol Entertainment Katharine McPhee

I have been informed that my domain name is being renewed, but just in case if I lose a day or two, there is an alternate URL:

http://movermike.powerblogs.com/

that will continue to work without interruption.

Gosh darn, this is swell!

From AME info fn, this press release from Advanced Currency Markets (ACM) announcing their new office in Dubai.

Over the past year online forex trading has grown by 200-300%, like online equity trading in the 1990s,' explains

32 year-old Nicholas Bang, Managing Director and one of the three partners who own ACM now that Refco is no longer involved.

[...]

The ACM platform allows clients up to 100-times leverage, so if they invest $10,000 they can trade with up to $1 million in the forex markets. Is this not a bit risky? Could they not loose a lot more than they have invested?

'The client decides on the level of risk that they are comfortable with,' says Mr. Bang. 'But the account has a fail safe shutdown which will close all the positions if the client is coming near to losing the amount invested. This automatic position liquidation protects the client against large losses, and ACM as well.

'But that still means that the upside of leverage is available to the client. Thus you have a potential downside of $10,000 for this level of investment, and a potential upside based on funds 100 times bigger.

Imagine, you and I can trade up to $1,000,000 for as little as $10,000 and our position will be monitored so that the position will be closed down if we come near losing all of our money! Let's see that works out to a move of less than 1% and our position will be closed out. How many times in one year has a forex market moved 1% or more in a day? It only took a quick Google to find this: From the GAIN Capital Group, Forex website on March 16, 2006

The dollar has fallen more than 2 percent against the euro this week and 1.8 percent versus the yen, the biggest drops since the week ended Jan. 6, after reports showed a record deficit in the U.S. current account and retail sales declined.

When I was a broker, I was appalled to take over some accounts that were tading treasuries on 10% margin.

I think if many are trading on 1% margins, in a time of $300 Trillions in derivatives, we have an extremely fragile financial system!

Forex Trading leverage Finance

FURNITUREToday reports Strong currency a pain for Brazil

Imagine what would happen if your product cost a third more than it did a year ago.

[...]

In the past two years, the Brazilian real has gained strength, moving from 3.2 to the U.S. dollar to the current 2.1. This change has brought a screeching slowdown to furniture export growth.

[...]

The U.S. is Brazil's leading trading partner in furniture, with a little over 40% of exports going there.

When the USD falls against one currency, in the case of Brazil, we can buy from other countries like Italy, Canada, Honduras, China or Vietnam, and attempt to keep our import furniture prices level. There are other sources for furniture where the USD relationship is stable. What happens if in the case of electronics, there is only one country choice? Then we will experience the increased costs here, in our pocketbooks. Our dependence on China for more and more of our basics grows daily and it won't be long before the Yuan will rise substantially against the USD, much like Brazil, and we will be importing goods with ever higher prices.

Brazil Real USD

Darn say the Chinese, who only have 1% of their reserves in gold.

China View reports

The Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, rejected Tuesday the finance minister's call to sell some of its (3,428 tons) gold reserves to cash more money for the state.

"Gold is an essential component of currency reserves and functions as a stability and trust-building factor," Bundesbank President Axel Weber said.

Germany has more than 50% of its reserves in gold as does France, England and the US. After all, you need gold reserves. After you destroy your currency through inflation, you need gold to begin anew!

Germany Bundesbank Gold