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Mover Mike

Mike is a retired stock broker, and now supports his wife's furniture business. He is her warehouseman, deluxer, and marketing guru. In addition, he writes poetry and finds abundance, health and joy in the world around him while pondering life's little mysteries

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Guard the Borders Blogburst
by Heidi at Euphoric Reality

WHAT THEY DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW ABOUT SENATE BILL S. 2611

The new immigration bill (the most "sweeping reform in 50 years") S. 2611 is an amalgam of petty causes, illogical provisions, unstructured "solutions" with zero allowances for implementation, and self-contradictory language. Despite the mess, it was passed by self-righteous politicians who repeated the mantra "it's better than doing nothing." This from the same gaggle of do-nothings who outright rejected the House's law enforcement bill.

The Senate bill has our President's full support - this same bill is a derivative of one structured by Ted Kennedy and John McCain, and supported in full by the majority of Democrats. That alone ought to give one pause - President Bush, a Democrat?

Peggy Noonan says, "The disinterest in the White House and among congressional Republicans in establishing authority on America's borders is so amazing--the people want it, the age of terror demands it--that great histories will be written about it."

She opines that it is possible that..."the administration's slow and ambivalent action is the result of being lost in some geopolitical-globalist abstract-athon that has left them puffed with the rightness of their superior knowledge, sure in their membership in a higher brotherhood, and looking down on the low concerns of normal Americans living in America.

I continue to believe the administration's problem is not that the base lately doesn't like it, but that the White House has decided it actually doesn't like the base."

Monday, May 29, 2006

George Kleinman Calls for $800 Gold
As a followup to my $800 Gold prediction by August 1st, I note that George Kleinman writes about Gold, analysing open interest (OI), and comes to the same conclusion $800 for Gold.

He has followed the rise and fall of OI for 20 years and has some interesting and valuable information about the commodity that we can all use in the future, information that is not available to the stock trader. He writes

If prices are in an uptrend and open OI is falling, this is a bearish sign. The old longs, the “smart money” (after all they have been right to this point), are taking profits; they’re liquidating. They are replaced to some extent by new buyers who will not be as strong on balance, but the declining OI is an indication the weak shorts also are bailing. They will be replaced to an extent by new shorts who are stronger than the old shorts were.
The one thing I would point out, based on the reasoning of Bill Murphy at Le Metropole Cafe, is that OI should have built up faster than it actually did (see Kleinman's chart). Murphy has argued that the very powerful bullion banks, as in Goldman Sachs, were covering their shorts like mad on any dips all the way up, offsetting new longs. That is why OI didn't expand as much or as fast as the time in early 2006. Murphy kept saying that OI is still lower than in early 2006 and Gold is $100 higher. His call kept us in the move for a lot longer knowing that the shorts were trapped. At one point Murphy believed there was a 12,000 to 16,000 ton short position. He still believes it may be 10,000 to 14,000 tons short. In other words, we have a long way to go. Kleinman now is correctly calling for $800 Gold by viewing, based on his OI analysis (see Kleinman's chart)

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. George Kleinman Calls for $800 Gold
  2. Gold Headed for $800!

Sunday, May 28, 2006

Lawrence Kudlow Wears Rose Colored Glasses
Lawrence Kudlow writes in Would Adam Smith Approve? that Capitalism needs a moral core and the conviction of Ken Lay and Jeffrey Skilling, does not signify a systemic infection, but an aberation, thanks to a hard working core of
government prosecutors are doing a fine job of re-imposing the rule of law and re-moralizing our economic system.
He argues that since WWII, the US has evolved 100 Million investors that George Bush calls the "ownership class".
George W. Bush, a lineal descendant of Reagan, calls this the "ownership class." And though I can't prove it, I'm willing to bet that this group's demand for lower tax rates and entrepreneurial activity goes hand in hand with the cultural characteristics of hard work, thrift, personal responsibility, and law-abiding behavior. (emphasis added)
Kudlow goes on to say that there is a new group of
CEOs engaging in the practice of backdating stock-option grants and other related forms of anti-shareholder compensation chicanery. The biggest demoralizing miscreant is William McGuire, CEO of United Health Group. In Washington, book-cooking at Fannie Mae has still to be properly punished.
Not to worry, the G-Men are here to save the day. Kudlow thinks that Adam Smith who said
capitalism requires a moral and ethical center if it is to function effectively and to the benefit of all
would be proud.

I'm sorry Larry, but I don't see any core of morality and I'm certainly not inspired by the G-Men. How long did it take for them to dig through all of Fannie Mae's accounting to find the $11 Billion of errors? The 100 million stock buyers are far removed from running the companies they own. Their trading has been supplanted by institutions and hedge funds. As far as thrift, they not only are the most indebted generation in history, but they have had no positive influence on a ever growing and ever spending government. Adam Smith wouldn't understand how we have strayed so far from Capitalism.

But Larry, it's when you look at government itself, that you see the rot and the lack of a moral core. Our government gives us fraudulent accounting and deceptive statistics. No one believes the numbers from the government. In addition the government has capped the gold price, at least as far back as Sec. Treasury Rubin, and has taken away our "canary in the coal mine". Now it has stopped giving us M3.

Did our government give Japan our domestic auto industry in exchange for 0% interest rates?

Did our government allow our domestic industries to become obsolete, like TV production, flat screens etc?

Are they allowing illegals to invade our country to depress wages?

Has our government exchanged liberty for reliance on foreign oil?

Has our government exchanged sovereignty for dependence on foreign holders of the USD?

Since 1913 when Congress gave the power over money to a non-government entity, the Federal Reserve, the USD has been reduced from a gold-backed currency to a fiat currency that depends for its value on trust. A trust that has led to an inflation of our currency by at least 95%!

Ayn Rand said this about inflation:

Inflation is not caused by the actions of private citizens, but *by the government*: by an artificial expansion of the money supply required to support deficit spending. No private embezzlers or bank robbers in history have ever plundered people's savings on a scale comparable to the plunder perpetrated by the fiscal policies of statist governments."
We have a statist government that is no better than a common crook; an example that corporate executives follow. When a government can print any number of billions it wants then it has divorced the concept of value from production and that is immoral. That immorality has invaded the system.

Again Ayn Rand wrote:

Money is a tool of exchange, which can't exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal wlth one another must deal by trade and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears or of the looters, who take it from you by force. Money is made possible only by the men who produce.
At a recent round table lunch on hedge funds Richard Oldfield, chief executive of the fund managers Oldfield Partners, said
“We will look back and realise this was a barmy time,” adding that some hedge funds were walking a difficult regulatory line: some were close to acting as concert parties in bid situations and some were coming very close to front-running — the practice of trading ahead of one’s clients.
Larry, take off the rose-colored glasses!

Saturday, May 27, 2006

Aaron Russo’s AMERICA: FREEDOM TO FASCISM
Aaron Russo says: There are no boundaries one must adhere to when preserving one's liberty.

There's a powerful new movie coming to your screen on July 28: Aaron Russo’s AMERICA: FREEDOM TO FASCISM.

The primary objectives of the movie and the call to action are:

* Stop the polarization of America
* Stop the domination of the Democratic and Republican parties over our political system
* Shut down the Federal Reserve system
* Return America's gold to Fort Knox and have it audited
* Have Congress and the IRS, in a public forum, reveal the law that requires Americans to pay a direct, unapportioned tax on their labor.
* Make computerized voting illegal in all 50 states
* Keep the internet free and out of the control of large institutions
* Rescind the law called the Real ID Act so Americans never have to carry a National ID Card
* Make it illegal to implant RFID chips in human beings
* Educate juries to the fact that they have the right to determine the law as well as the facts of a case
* Educate juries to the fact that they are not obligated to follow the instructions of a judge
* Stop Globalization because it is the path to a one world government
* Protect our borders
* Restore the environment
* Put an end to the Patriot Act
* Sign up millions of Americans so we can accomplish our objectives

Remember Barry Goldwater: Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice; moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Interview with Aaron Russo
  2. Aaron Russo’s AMERICA: FREEDOM TO FASCISM

Thursday, May 25, 2006

Gold Headed for $800!
Back in April, I wrote about trading gaps in the nearest Gold contract:
Now, our third gap took place on 02/06/2006 with a close at 574.3. IMO, the bottom was at 539.0 on 02/16/2006. As I indicated in my previous post, I believe we have broken out of a small head and shoulders bottom. If this move acts like the previous two our next high should be between 625.40 and 640.00, sometime in the first two weeks of April.
That gap was filled on March 29th, and Gold hit $636 on April 19th. While I missed the timing by three days, gold continued higher until May 11, at $728, a gain from the filling of the gap of about $148.

Now we have another two gaps on May 19th and May 24th (see chart). Those gaps will be filled when we trade at or above $680.20. If the gaps are filled, we should trade $148 higher from the gap or $828.20.

Assuming we close the gaps next week, based on the amount of time the last $148 took, I would guess that we trade over $800 prior to August 1st.

Update:

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. George Kleinman Calls for $800 Gold
  2. Gold Headed for $800!

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

It's Taylor Hicks!
Well, dang! Taylor Hicks wins American Idol and Katharine McPhee looks fabulous. Maybe I do need another Joe Cocker or Michael MacDonald CD, and I still need a McPhee CD to add to my collection.

Congratulations Taylor, that's a vote for all us gray haired guys.

And Katharine, that last dress looked fabulous on you!

A Warning from the OECD
From the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Western world's chief economic overseer, a warning:
the eventual rebalancing of the US current account gap 'looks increasingly unavoidable' and will send shock waves across the globe, starting with a slump in the dollar's exchange rate.

The OECD said in its world economic outlook that the depreciation faced by the dollar could be 'of the order of one-third to one-half.' (emphasis added)

London Irvine says if this were to happen, Japan and China could each lose $400 Billion in forex reserve value. Clearly, a USD fall would deal pain here and around the world.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

DDT use starts in July
Finally, some sanity.

DDT use starts in July By Alfred Wasike

UGANDA is set to start spraying homes countrywide with DDT (dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane) against malaria in July, the Government has announced.

In preparation for the DDT anti-malarial strategy, the US has given Uganda US$10m to fight malaria.

The US President George Bush anti-malarial initiative has chosen three African countries; uganda, Tanzania and Angola, former health minister Jim Muhwezi said.

Uganda loses over US$700m per year to malaria (more money than Uganda gets from donors to balance its budget), while between 100,000 and 120,000 people are killed by malaria annually, the Government says.

Muhwezi said the spraying was being coordinated at continental level by an organisation called WHO-AFRO.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. DDT use starts in July
  2. Who is Jeffrey Sachs?
American Idol - The Finals
The finals of Americam Idol are over. Sure, Taylor won the first round, Katharine won the second round and Taylor won the third. However, this is not about two out of three being the winner. It's about CDs and whose would you buy. I already have some Joe Cocker, some Michael McDonald and some Elton John. I don't have any Katharine McPhee.

To quote Nekesa Mumbi Moody of the Canadian Press

...she (Katharine) showed her true strength as she sang her rendition of Somewhere Over the Rainbow, breathing new life into a standard that has been so oversung by overwrought divas that most people wince when the opening notes of it are played. McPhee actually put her own beguiling stamp on it, infusing the classic with the kind of grace and innocence that Judy Garland did decades ago, and making it seem fresh and new.
Then there was the song Since I fell for you that Katharine sang way back in March. I downloaded two of the best versions by Michael Bolton and Barbara Streisand and those singers don't come close to the Katharine version.

I'll vote for Katharine and I will buy her CDs and she will get even better. Taylor can't get better. I'm hoping for a Kat win, Taylor will take second place!

Update:

Monday, May 22, 2006

Guard the Borders Blogburst
by Heidi at Euphoric Reality

Our Open Borders Will Be The Death Of Us Yet

I live in Texas, and sometimes I think people don't truly grasp the fact that the chaos on our borders is not a border state issue - it threatens them directly, no matter where they live. The fact is that our border chaos is directly linked to our national security. Terrorists already have and continue to illegally cross our border, blending in with illegals from Mexico and Central America, or brazenly crossing over with an armed escort of gang members or even the Mexican military.

Watch this video of an ongoing investigation done by the news team from KGRV TV serving Harlingen-Weslaco-McAllen -Brownsville, Texas. (Video will open in your media player - it's a news segment.) It is part of an ongoing series highlighting the culmination of months of investigative research into the flow of terrorists over our borders. Fred Burton, a counter-terrorism expert of Stratfor, was interviewed on camera. He stated that now is the perfect time for terrorists to sneak across the border. Escalating violence and an unprecedented flood of illegals is distracting law enforcement and stretching it thin. Zapata County sheriff, Frederigo Gonzales Jr. says that as for WMDs, it is not a matter of "if", but "when".

Sunday, May 21, 2006

I Am Now the Owner of a Class B CDL

When I last posted about getting my Class B CDL, I was finishing training and took my test on May 8th. I passed both the Pre-trip and the Driving test and was assigned a route. A cover driver had been driving the route for the last two and half weeks. The first day Thursday the 11th, I rode with the driver in the morning and in the evening over some of the most narrow streets in Portland with parked cars on both sides of the street and through parts of the West hills with its twisty streets.

The cover driver asked me if I wanted to drive and Thursday I shuddered and declined. That night I think I had nightmares about those streets and woke with a real fear that I was not capable of doing the driving. I remembered the book, Feel the Fear and Do it Anyway and told the cover driver, "I'll drive it!" and she sat and watched. I did great and we did a practice run with no children on board after the pick up run. I was set and Friday, afternoon the 12th was my first solo. I have now completed a week of driving by myself and I am amazed. If you had told me a month and a half ago that I would be driving up Broadway Drive in a big yellow bus, I would have thought you crazy.

I did have one mishap on Thursday. Where I pick up the kids, the street slopes and it can be easy to roll backwards. The proper procedure is to secure the bus by setting the emergency brake. Then when you are ready to leave, you move the gearshift into drive and put your foot on the gas then release the brake. It's called "driving against the brake." When I was ready to leave, my emergency brake was set, but I hadn't shifted into drive. When I released the emergency brake, I rolled backwards a foot or two and hit the bus behind me. There was no damage to either bus, but it required getting the names of all the students, taking about 20 minutes, then filling out all the accident forms the next day.

Because of this incident I was required to be retrained before I could drive again the next morning. So for an hour, my trainer and I practiced driving around the yard, stopping, securing the bus, shifting into drive and driving against the brake, over and over and over. Then the next day after my morning run, I was required to watch a movie about the Smith System of driving, used by bus drivers and truckers across the country. Of course all the drivers knew about my incident and they knew, also, the bus I hit was driven by the Supervisor of Field Safety.

The Smith System involves five steps to good driving:

A - Aim high in steering. Look out five to six seconds in front of the bus and fifteen seconds on the highway. That gives you time to see out 650 feet to a 1/4 of a mile ahead.
G - Get the Big Picture. Try to imagine "what if" scenarios when you look ahead to the sides and to the rear.
K - Keep Your Eyes Moving. This increases your peripheral vision.
L - Leave Yourself an Out. By keeping spacing in front of you and to the sides, if something does happen, you can better maneuver to avoid an accident.
M - Make Sure They See You. Use your signals, drive with your lights on, use your horn.

The acronym to remember those five keys to driving is this: All Good Kids Love Milk.

Saturday, May 20, 2006

Who is Tom Bearden?
What if:
There was an available technology, meaning right now, that could extract energy from the "air" that could power your home and car for FREE?

What would be the implications of such a technology?

* no more utility companies
* no more gasoline stations
* no use for refineries for gasoline
* a big part of our current trade imbalance would disappear
* the USD would strengthen
* there would be less competition for the remaining world's oil, thus less need for as much military spending
* the Ethanol production would be obsolete
* if electricity were free, suppose your growing season could be extended artificially with giant greehouses
* coal and everything involved with the production of coal would be obsolete
* the production of greenhouse gasses would plummet
* there could be massive unemployment in those industries affected, but massive new employment involved in the conversion
* I have barely scratched the surface of the implications.

Before the turn of the century, Nikola Tesla had discovered and was utilizing a new type of electric wave. Tesla repeatedly stated his waves were non-Hertzian, and his wireless transmissions did not fall off as the square of the distance. His discovery was apparently so fundamental that he intended to provide free energy to all humankind.
According to Tom Bearden, Tesla electric waves are now described as Longitudinal Electromagnetic (EM) energy and it fills the vacuum of space. It is like a river of energy, and we now have the means to dip our "paddlewheel" into that river, without disrupting the flow, and capture that energy. Some may call it "zero point" energy. Scientists have found through theory and experiment that when you lower the tempurature of a vacuum to absolute zero there still remains a non-thermal radiation or simply called the "zero point" radiation.

Soon, we will be able to buy a Motionless Electromagnetic Generator (MEG)

Recall my conversations with Mark Goldes Chairman & CEO at Magnetic Power Inc., he late last year announced

self-powered Magnetic Power Module™ is expected to provide sufficient energy density in the future to power automobiles, as a replacement for existing engines that require fuel. It also may grow to one megawatt modules for power plants.
His first unit should be available before the end of 2006!

Who is Tom Bearden?

Ph.D., nuclear engineer, retired Lieutenant Colonel (U.S. Army), CEO of CTEC, Inc., Director of the Association of Distinguished American Scientists, and Fellow Emeritus of the Alpha Foundation's Institute for Advanced Study. Tom is a theoretical conceptualist active in the study of scalar electromagnetics, advanced electrodynamics, unified field theory, KGB energetics weapons and phenomena, free energy systems, electromagnetic healing via the unified field action of extended Sachs-Evans electrodynamics, and human development. Particularly known for his work establishing a theory of overunity electrical power systems, scalar electromagnetic weapons, energetics weapons, and the use of time-as-energy in both power systems and the mind-body interaction.

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Oregon Earthquake
From the USGS: Oregon Earthquake

MAP 2.6 Magnitude 2006/05/20 00:21:58 (Date and Time)
44.298 -120.872 (Location)
8.0 (Depth)
2 km ( 1 mi) WSW of Prineville, OR

Friday, May 19, 2006

Mogambo Guru's Words to Ponder
It has been an on-going question for me: Why didn't the Jews leave Germany, Poland, Austria, etc. in the 1930s with the first whiff of anti-semiticism? I am sure some did leave, some debated the situation, some pooh-poohed the naysayers, most hoped for the best.

History repeats. Now Iran wants to have a national dress code and on the clothes will be a symbol indicating your non-Muslim religious preferences.

Iran's roughly 25,000 Jews would have to sew a yellow strip of cloth on the front of their clothes, while Christians would wear red badges and Zoroastrians would be forced to wear blue cloth.
Do we have a similar conundrum for Americans regarding the USD? I thought about the question while reading The Prudent Investor post about the Dollar Collapse written by thr Mogambo Guru. Here are some words that started the question going through my mind:
My Infallible Mogambo Reasoning (IMR) is along the lines of "Suppose I told you that your money would gradually and continuously lose a lot of its value. Maybe half. Or more. My intuition tells me that you would not be happy."

I pause to gauge your reaction, which ranges between homicidal anger and paralyzing fear. Exactly so! Then I go on to say "But that same intuition tells me that you WOULD be happy, very happy, if I told you that I knew of a way to let you keep all your wealth, and you would not lose anything!" Ha! I can see by that smile on your face that I was right!

So how to achieve this miracle of wealth-preservation? All you have to do is sell all your dollars and dollar-denominated assets today, before the dollar is devalued further! Then you'd like to stick someone else with the whole loss!

Now you are ready for today's Mogambo Daily Pop Quiz (MDPQ). The question is "Would YOU stick around to take your share of financial lumps, of up to half of your net worth (or more), meted out month after month, year after year, in a promised 'orderly decline', or would you sell out now, and not take any lumps at all?" (emphasis added)

Mogambo goes on:
If you want the optimal, and probable, solution to our nation's economic difficulties, here it is, as horrific as it sounds: We get into a shooting war with a powerful group of enemies that we owe money to, thus giving us the "right" to default on our debt to them. Then the government declares martial law and suspends the Constitution and Bill of Rights, giving them the power to confiscate our property and lives. And since I said "optimal", then expect the use of biological weapons to kill the older people, thus solving the Social Security and Medicare crisis, by reducing the population of old people. And most importantly, most of our infrastructure is destroyed, thus providing a lot of future work (and vast fortunes) after the war.

This is the kind of repugnant, horrifying things that have always become inevitable when you had a fiat currency, especially one created by debt, and when the people let the government (or, in this case, the Federal Reserve, the government's willing whore) produce too much of it.

So now the second question, Would you ever leave the country, move, take up residence in another country? Aren't we now in the same position as the Jews prior to WWII? What are we going to do? The guts it takes to sell out of all USD denominated assets and move! Most of us will remain unconvinced of the need,won't be able to summon the courage. I am writing about this stuff and can't make the move. Survival is only a TV reality show. The voice in my head says, "What if I'm wrong?"

Suppose you sold everything. Suppose you end up with $500,000. Do you buy gold coins? How do you transport 20 plus pounds of gold out of the country? I have many more questions than answers.

I do know that no fiat currency has ever survived. I know from reading history that when the Reichmark collapsed it took 87 trillion Reichmarks to buy an oz. of Gold. Right now it takes $657 to buy an ounce of Gold. If the USD becomes as worthless as the Reichmark, Gold will be the only thing that helps us survive.

Update: I had a conversation with Terry Krohn, author of The Eye of the Pyramid, yesterday, about his upcoming sequel, due out in August. He has a scene in his book of two ordinary guys sitting down over breakfast. In their conversation one says it used to be that a guy could be the sole breadwinner, and my wife could stay home with the kids. Now it takes two incomes just to keep even with the bills. Some say it's because Americans need to own everything that comes along. That we're all about instant gratification and debt. The other guy agrees, but says he's just into keeping the famaily together. They both agree that something is wrong in this country.

I agreed with Krohn in his assessment, something is wrong. No matter what your party, your religion, your color, deep down you know something is not working. I will have more to say soon about Krohn's new book, Power of the Scepter.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

No Room for a Birdie!
Here's an interesting chart from Jim Sinclair.

The 30-year Treasury bottomed in Jan. 2000 at 92.22 and has been in a bull market for 5 1/2 years peaking in June 2005 at 118.75. Really, it has been a rising bond stairway since 1989, meaning if you bought bonds on weakness since 1989 you had a guaranteed ticket to giant bond gains plus the interest. And if you leveraged yourself, oh my, things were rosy.

The USD on the other hand has been on just the opposite stairway, from a peak in 2001 at 120, 4 1/2 years of a falling USD, to 80 1/2. What a trade: Long bonds, Short the USD. You may have not played gold, because of its reputation as a "barbarous relic".

Gold bottomed in 2001 at $250 and recently hit $730. Here's what we've had: falling interest rates, falling USD and rising gold. Now, when I look at the 30-year Treasury, I see a massive head and shoulders top, and a breaking of key monthly lows of 106.375 and 105.625. The USD appears weak and I expect it to get weaker and gold in a short squeeze that may send the price of gold, soon, to the old high of $850-$875. We soon will have rising interest rates, which should mean a rising USD, instead it's falling and a rising price of gold. If you are a leveraged hedge fund and programmed via the old rules, you are likely to have your portfolio blow up. If you are a leveraged hedge fund and missed these changes taking place in these key instrumments, you are likely to have your portfolio blow up.

These are the most dangerous times, when things stop working they way you think they should and you are so far out on the limb that there's no room for a birdie!

Update:

Some are clearly worried!
Haven't writen much about derivatives lately. Oh, I've kept my eyes and ears open, and suspect the march higher of commodities prices could be upsetting some investors plans, however aside from rumors, it's held together.

Some are worried though. Check out these excerpts from the president of the New York Federal Reserve, Timothy Geithner, at a New York University conference:

the development of credit derivatives was, on balance, likely to make financial markets more efficient and stable but that the instruments, which now cover underlying credit exposures totalling more than $17,000bn (that's $17 Trillion), could still throw up "negative surprises".

[...]

While acknowledging the progress, Mr Geithner said dealers and big banks should take "a cold, hard look" at the amount they lend to hedge funds and their margin practices for derivative transactions - the rules about how much funds can borrow against individual trades.

-----The task is one of "formidable complexity" in many cases, Mr Geithner said. An institution needs not only to assess the risk inherent in individual instruments but also "to capture the broader risks the institution might confront in conditions of a general deterioration in confidence in credit and an erosion in liquidity in these markets".

That requires banks to analyse very low probability but extreme scenarios, he said - a particularly challenging exercise given the recent development of new financial instruments, the rapidly increasing significance of hedge funds and other relatively new participants in capital markets, and changes in market structure.

Normally, derivative players don't worry too much about events that could happen out there on the end of the tail. Here, Geithner is clearly worried. And, he is worried about the leverage involved and the risk assessment of the newer players and the new derivative products. Whoa, Nancy!

On top of all that, we have the talking heads calling for a top week after week in precious metals without understanding that the "bigs" are trapped in gold shorts to the tune of 10,000 to 14,000 tons and nowhere to buy it back without sending gold to heavenly prices. Then we have a USD that is clearly headed lower. My gosh, even Merrill Lynch is bearish on the USD.

The CPI was just released. Add another worry!

Energy prices pushed the U.S. consumer price index up 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, the Labor Department said Wednesday. And higher shelter costs boosted the core CPI index, which excludes food and energy prices, to a 0.3% gain. The increase in the CPI and the core rate were both slightly higher than forecast. Economists expected a 0.5% gain in the CPI, according to a MarketWatch survey. The core CPI was expected to rise 0.2%.

Update:

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Some are clearly worried!
  2. Opinions

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

American Idol - May 17th
Well...three are left. Elliott Yamin, Katharine McPhee and Taylor Hicks are competing for American Idol. Clive picked the first song for each, the judges individually picked the next song and the contestants picked the third and last song. The evening was a treat for the ears and the eyes. Elliott has more soul than a young man should have. Katharine, absolutely nailed her second song and she just wins you over with her eyes and smile. Taylor absolutely nailed the Joe Cocker song You are so beautiful. I think all three did just great. And to those who lament Chris being gone, he was missed, but we didn't miss him. The singing was that good.

Who goes home? My choice would be Elliott. He needed to have a moment like Katharine did with Somewhere over the rainbow and he didn't.

R.I.P Stanley Kunitz
He didn't make it to 101.

Stanley Kunitz has died, one of my favorite poets. On July 30, 2005 on his birthday, when he turned 100, I shared one of his poems with you, The Portrait. Please take a look at this wonderful poem by Stanley Kunitz:

Halley's Comet

Miss Murphy in first grade
wrote its name in chalk
across the board and told us
it was roaring down the stormtracks
of the Milky Way at frightful speed
and if it wandered off its course
and smashed into the earth
there'd be no school tomorrow.
A red-bearded preacher from the hills
with a wild look in his eyes
stood in the public square
at the playground's edge
proclaiming he was sent by God
to save every one of us,
even the little children.
"Repent, ye sinners!" he shouted,
waving his hand-lettered sign.
At supper I felt sad to think
that it was probably
the last meal I'd share
with my mother and my sisters;
but I felt excited too
and scarcely touched my plate.
So mother scolded me
and sent me early to my room.
The whole family's asleep
except for me. They never heard me steal
into the stairwell hall and climb
the ladder to the fresh night air.
Look for me, Father, on the roof
of the red brick building
at the foot of Green Street—
that's where we live, you know, on the top floor.
I'm the boy in the white flannel gown
sprawled on this coarse gravel bed
searching the starry sky,
waiting for the world to end.

Most of the things people predict don't come true, but isn't there a fascination with the possible. That's why we watch the news about hurricanes and the earthquake predictions and why we go to NASCAR races. Many people are focused on the year 2012 as the End Date. The boy in the white flannel gown is in all of us.

Opinions
I love opinions like this:

Gold in New York fell the most in 17 months on speculation a rally that drove prices to a 26-year high was exaggerated.
"In the near term, it's possible" this is the end of the rally.
Friday marked the beginning of a "ten percent to 20 percent correction that can literally take place in a manner of days, but more likely weeks, since copper, gold and silver had extremely high overbought readings," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.
Grandich, who isn't right too often, yet gets his name in print often, thinks we could have a 10 to 20 percent correction of $73 to $146.

I'll keep mine, thank you very much. Here's London Irvine's take:

Rumours still swirl of firms and commodity financing banks in deep trouble, and of hedged precious metals miners broke, but still in denial. Bear raids in commodity bull markets are an everyday fact of life. We may get a little more margin call selling today. Hedge fund and other house commodity traders usually over leverage, especially once over confidence about the direction of the market sets in.

But I doubt this bull is dead. In my opinion the bull is just getting primed for bear. But first the UK quality press emulating the scandal sheets and pressing the case for the top.

Update:

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Some are clearly worried!
  2. Opinions

Monday, May 15, 2006

Guard the Borders Blogburst
Reformation or Revolution? by Heidi and Kit at Euphoric Reality

Tonight, the President will address the nation on his plans for illegal immigration. Unfortunately, he's already given his word to Vicente Fox on Sunday that his plan to put a few National Guard troops on the border is just a temporary formality, of sorts, and not meant to intimidate anyone. Right. Heaven forbid we intimidate anyone to deter them from breaking our laws!

The question then arises, who does Bush feel more compelled to explain himself to - us Americans or the Mexicans? He owes the American people everything , and the Mexican government nothing! So why is he assuring Fox of anything concerning our internal national policies?!

I have no illusions about what we'll hear from President Bush tonight. But before he tries to lull anyone into complacency tonight, let's look at the reality of the Goode Amendment, which Bush will no doubt reference in his speech tonight. Troops on the border to bolster security? It's not what it sounds like:

OK, here are the dirty little secrets.

“(d) Conditions of Use- (1) Whenever a member who is assigned under subsection (a) to assist the Bureau of Border Security or the United States Customs Service is performing duties at a border location pursuant to the assignment, a civilian law enforcement officer from the agency concerned shall accompany the member.”

So, each military member will simply now be a buddy for a Border Patrol guy.

Now look at this:

“(2) Nothing in this section shall be construed to–

(A) authorize a member assigned under subsection (a) to conduct a search, seizure, or other similar law enforcement activity or to make an arrest;”

So, the military has nada authority.

BUT it gets better;

“(h) Termination of Authority- No assignment may be made or continued under subsection (a) after September 30, 2007.’”

This is a ONE YEAR DEAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bush's speech tonight seems to be a weak bid to stem the hemorrhage of voters from the Republican Party. As the party's leader, Bush has a responsibility to lead and direct his party, and he may just be leading it to a crushing defeat in the upcoming elections. People who voted for Bush not once, but twice, are abandoning the Republican Party in droves. On a recent news radio poll, 80% of the callers who had voted for Bush twice, now heartily disapprove of him. Of that 80%, 90% of them said it was due to his mishandling of our border security. But Democrats shouldn’t celebrate any victories yet, because it’s not just Republicans - what it's doing to the two-party system is even worse.

This issue is splitting the American people into a majority who demand border security and immigration enforcement and a small, but vocal minority who demand amnesty. There are now two schools of thought coalescing around the faltering Republican Party and its bumbling missteps. The debate is happening now and we need to be a part of it. So let’s debate!

Kit and I dove into this a little deeper and have each represented a school of thought concerning the future of the Party, and by extension, our two party-system. In the interest of full disclosure, Kit is an increasingly-reluctant Republican and I am a furious Independent (formerly Republican who split from the party over a year ago).

The Reformer
by Kit Jarrell

Immigration is about as hot an issue as this country has seen in a while. Die-hard conservatives who once proudly pasted Bush/Cheney stickers on the backs of their cars are suddenly screaming for the President's head on a platter in the wake of his seemingly deliberate ignorance of the will of the American people, who in a new poll overwhelmingly call for border security and lower immigration numbers. A low rumbling has been heard in the blogosphere as some call for a conservative boycott of the 2006 elections in an effort to "show those GOP folks who's boss."

In the last few days, several conservative bloggers have stepped back a bit, asking if perhaps we're not being too hasty. Captain Ed says we're shooting ourselves in the foot if we simply sit home on Election Day.

...we still have to vote in November. If our preferred candidate does not win in the primaries, we still have to act responsibly and choose between the two major party candidates in the general election. Not only will abdication result in a loss of control over our own representation, the failure of GOP candidates has national implications that will wind up hamstringing the politicians that really have worked on our behalf — the Tom Coburns, the John Boehners, the Jon Cornyns. And by sitting on our hands, we will have proven too inflexible to be dependable — which will only encourage Republican candidates to reach out to the center-left more than ever before.
He's right. Here's how I see it:

The time for us to be acting is now, before the elections. We need to be seeking out and supporting candidates that we know will act with integrity and fortitude, who will understand and respect the rule of law, and who will do the job they were elected to do: represent the will of those who voted them in.

However, if Election Day rolls around and our candidate didn't make it, that is no excuse for us to sit home and do nothing. What happens if we throw a temper tantrum and refuse to vote? Democrats win. And let's face it: As much disillusion as we may feel right now, it's nothing compared to what this country will sink to if a liberal is elected back into the White House.

Stop the ACLU agrees, and quotes the Anchoress

I just have to ask all of you people - on every side - who have decided that immigration is one man’s burden, and that every good thing President Bush has done is to be negated because he hasn’t snapped his fingers and done what YOU think is the solution to the immigration problem…what did Clinton do about immigration, what did Bush 41 do? What did St. Reagan do? What did Carter do? What has any president, congressperson or senator done about immigration for the last 30 years, except kick the issue down the road for someone else to deal with?
As hard as it may be to hear, she's got a point. The responsibility for the scope and breadth of the current immigration problem lies on all of our shoulders. Illegals didn't suddenly start showing up in the last year. Politicians have been ignoring the problem for decades...and so have we.

Anchoress goes on:

[On] immigration…one man is to blame, one man is at fault, one man must find the Solomonic solution. And if he doesn’t, he’s a bum no matter what else he’s done. Meanwhile, the press can’t get over the president who smiled and cried his way through two terms, and they still work on his legacy. Can you ever recall a time in history where 6 years after an administration ends, the ex-president is still breathlessly being polled-on, still being given (on most days) as much press as the current president? I can’t.
Is Bush wrong on this issue? Absolutely. Am I angry about it? You're damn right I am. But he's what we've got for another two years. I'm not asking everyone to go to Bush rallies and cheer. I am, however, telling you that being a conservative isn't like being a liberal. We don't get to take our toys and go home simply because someone's not playing fair. We don't get to scream for the nanny because we're not getting what we want. We're not part of that tribe. We don't get the luxury of tantrums and whining and petulance. Let's leave that for the cowards who'd rather hold up a sign than pay their dues as freemen.

As conservatives, we are the ones who see the big picture. We have to. Yes, immigration is one of the biggest issues facing this country. Yes, we need to act now. Yes, we need to hold our politicians accountable for their actions (or lack thereof). But sitting at home or boycotting the elections will only show everyone that we're just as spineless as the liberals we deride.

Liberals run when things don't work out. We don't. We stay until they're finished, until they're done, until the problem is taken care of. Don't throw up your hands yet. There's still work to be done.

The Revolutionary
By Heidi

I see the point made above. There is no doubt that we cannot sit back and do nothing. If we do - we deserve worse than we get. But can the Republican Party be reformed by simply finding new candidates? I know Democrats that are vastly disappointed with the direction of their party, too. Personally, I figure the system is broken. I think our Founding Fathers would be heartsick to see the extent of corruption within our two party system - it's like a grandiose house that has rotted from the foundation up. It would be best to tear it down and build something new and rock-solid on the foundation our forefathers built.

I am not prepared to give Bush a free pass by comparing him to our previous do-nothing Presidents. Never has there been a time in history when we have faced the sheer glut of problems rooted in the invasion of illegals - we're at 20 million or more - twice what the government will admit to. Never have we faced the crises of a foreign government managing our internal domestic policies, or our own government actively undermining our own laws, hamstringing our law enforcement, and refusing to listen to the majority of the American people. The American people have spoken - but nobody is listening!

Bush is the leader of the Republican Party. If he did the right thing, our majority-Republican Congress would follow. End of story - mission accomplished. Since he WON'T do the right thing, he puts those elected officials in the vulnerable and dangerous place of having to go against the entire executive branch in order to do what their people demand. As we've already seen, there's few of them that are man enough to do that. And that's what Bush is banking on! He's the one risking his own party, not those who abandon the Republican Party because it no longer speaks for them!

I think the Anchoress' defensive position is much more dangerous to the Republican Party than anything else: "How is one man supposed to do what countless others haven't?" That alone is a losing proposition! She asks what all the other presidents did about illegal immigration. Well, here are several extenuating points to ponder about that:

1) we've never had 20-28 MILLION illegals before
2) we never had a 9/11 before
3) we were not at war
4) those Presidents didn't promise the entire country that nothing mattered to them as much as our national security. Bush did.

The Republicans know that conservatives can't go anywhere else without risking the liberals taking control. I think Republicans count on the fact that conservatives are trapped, and they abuse it. Republicans caution rebellious conservatives by reminding them of how fourteen years ago, disaffected voters split the vote between Bush 41 and Perot. "Look what happened," they mourn, "we got eight years of Clinton." Republicans paint those independents as having sabotaged the election. Yet, what was the best candidate they could field against an incumbent Clinton in 1996? Bob Dole? C'mon - that's the best they could do? Losing two elections to the likes of Bubba Clinton is not the fault of the Independent voter - it's the result of a weak-willed Republican Party. They handed those elections to Clinton with a big red bow on top! That alone tells me they don't have what it takes to survive a reformation - they play it way too safe.

Today, we can't elect third-rate leaders just because we're voting against a floridly silly Al Gore or a treasonous John Kerry - who feels good about that?! Voting for the lesser of two evils, to vote against the worse candidate, is not the way any Republican or Democrat can hope to win an election. Neither party is any longer representing the American people, but rather big money interests and powerful small interest lobbies. Elections are a big money game. Though an Independent Perot couldn't win with his millions 14 years ago, he may have just been well ahead of his time. Here we are a decade and a half later, and millions of us are actively looking for a candidate with a spine of steel and an unswerving loyalty to the American people and the sovereignty of our homeland! I don't know about you, but I'm ready! There needs to be a radical overthrow of the rotten parties currently in control.

There's a confluence of circumstances that may make possible today what was impossible 14 years ago - field a powerful Independent that truly represents the American people. I've heard people caution that we can't afford to be single-issue voters. I beg to differ - when it comes to our national sovereignty, nothing is more important. Illegal immigration and Mexico's meddling in our domestic affairs are the greatest threat to our national sovereignty that our generation has ever seen. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats can handle the gravity of the problem - they've already proven that to their everlasting shame.

It's time to throw them all out - the spirit of the American Revolution burns deeps inside many of us. It's time to ignite that fire and accomplish what lesser men and women have deemed impossible.

__________________________________________

This has been a production of the Guard the Borders Blogburst. It is syndicated by Euphoric Reality, and serves to keep immigration issues in the forefront of our minds as we're going about our daily lives and continuing to fight the war on terror. If you are concerned with the trend of illegal immigration in our country, join the Blogburst! Send an email with your blog name and url to euphoricrealitynet at gmail dot com.

Carnivals Are Up!
Carnival of Personal Finance is up at 2million - My Journey to Financial Freedom there are some interesting takes on:

Savings & Investing
Real Estate
Credit Card Debt
Other Income and
More Personal Finance. My first time visiting this carnival.

Sunday, May 14, 2006

Mirage in China: Image of a City
Is this for real?

Thousands of tourists and local residents witnessed a mirage of high clarity lasting for four hours off the shore of Penglai City in east China's Shandong Province on Sunday. Mists rising on the shore created an image of a city, with modern high-rise buildings, broad city streets and bustling cars as well as crowds of people all clearly visible. The city of Penglai had been soaked by two days of rain before the rare weather phenomenon occurred. The mirage took place during the week-long Labor Day holiday. The small city received over 30,000 tourists on Sunday. Experts said that many mirages have been recorded in Penglai, on the tip of Shandong Peninsula, throughout history, which made it known as a dwelling place of the gods. They explained that a mirage is formed when moisture in the air becomes warmer than the temperature of sea water, which refracts rays of sunlight to create reflections of the landscape in the sky.

Carnival of Investing
Carnival of Investing #22 is up at InvestorGeeks
Mover Mike is one of the participants.
Jewelers dangling
There's an interesting article in the SacBee about the Jewelry business, Jewelers dangling As gold prices skyrocket, retailers must decide whether to raise their prices to match the market
Gold closed at the end of 2005 at $518 an ounce. Today it sits at $710.50. Jewelers must decide what to do with inventory and retail prices as gold prices climb.
Some say they plan to ride out the recent upswing in prices, which they blame on a weak dollar, fear of oil shortages and turmoil in the Middle East.

But other jewelers believe they must raise prices to match the market. If they didn't, they say, they wouldn't be able to afford to restock the shelves with gold jewelry purchased at today's higher rates

The question is: should you charge what you paid for the jewelry or the current market? One jeweler in the SacBee story has a calculator handy and the current price of gold and calculates the price of the jewelry piece. He even shows his clients a chart of gold prices.

I was curious to hear if this was a local problem, so I called Margulis Jewelers. Bev and I bought her wedding ring from David Margulis, so I was hoping they would answer some questions about their policies. I learned from Cindy that it is more complicated than the story in the SacBee suggests.

Cindy said they have thousands of pieces and to change the prices on all of those items would be prohibitive. They don't have the computers for all that. She said they keep extensive records on each piece, when it was bought from whom and the price, for example. Margulis can show the customer this history and add that it would be more valuable today based on the gold content. If they are ordering a piece and it carries one price, they warn the customer it may be much higher because of the current gold prices and Margulis will let them know the price before ordering.

I asked if they had a piece purchased at $500 gold, would they ever consider just melting it down and selling the gold. Cindy said they would consider it after calculating the labor cost in the piece. It may not make sense after labor cost to melt it down. Melting down is more of a factor with an old piece purchased at a much lower gold cost if the piece is out of style.

Another factor that I hadn't thought of is the currency risk. Jewelry made in Germany is priced in Euros. With the USD plunging, the price in Euros for the piece is much higher.

I have posted before about the massive short positions of the central banks and bullion banks in gold that can't be covered at today's prices. It would appear that jewelers could contribute to the problem if they are in the group that thinks it best to stand pat and wait for a correction in the gold price before buying gold. They may have melted down stock and now must scramble along with everyone else to get gold supply. After all, they are jewelers and need gold to conduct business. They can't be without gold.

We are seeing a scramble in manufacturing that uses copper for fabrication, and that same problem could visit the jewelery business. We are living in interesting times and we may find all sorts of tangible goods will increasing in price, because of rising raw material prices.

For jewelry inquiries call David or Cindy at Margulis Jewelers at (503)227-1153.

Saturday, May 13, 2006

Sealing the Borders
It's ironic. From Zaman Online, US Army Troop Build up on Iraq-Iran Borders
The US administration...announced they increased the troops stationed at the border as a security measure since the insurgent’s smuggle stocks (of) weapons into Iraq from Iran.
Here in the US, we have a 2,500 mile border and only recently has there been any concern from the US administration about border security and we have up to a million coming across each year and who knows what they smuggle in. Why has it taken so long to protect our border?

We screwed up in Iraq by not sealing the borders before the war started allowing Sadaam to export his weapons to Syria and allow Syrians to fight as insurgents. Maybe, we have a bunch of slow learners serving us in government.

Bush Proposes National Guard for Secure Border
On May 5th I posted about Richard Maybury who writes the Early Warning Report. I wrote:
...Maybury is launching a new countdown,

because Washington has narrowed its options in the Middle East to only three: quit the war, revive conscription or use nuclear weapons.

Maybury starts the Countdown at Two (2). At Zero (0) we will have revived conscription or used nukes!

I am guessing Maybury will say this is another step closer to conscription by the use of the National Guard to guard the Southern border. Estimates are that 3,500 to 10,000 armed men and women will be needed to seal the borders, an additional task for the Guard (along with Afghanistan, Iraq and natural disasters). I am not against the idea, mind you. We need the border secured. However, using the military to secure the border has consequences. We are wearing out our military and more of our kids will be needed for the tasks.

Maybury has written extensively about the coming draft and what you as a parent should do if you have a son or daughter that could be eligible in Will My Son Or Daughter Be Drafted? His website offers this special report at http://www.richardmaybury.com, or call 1-800-509-5400 or Fax 602-943-2363

Friday, May 12, 2006

NASDAQ - New Low
The NASDAQ just put in the lowest weekly close of 2006. You have to go back to November of 2005 to find a lower weekly close! I am looking for 1500 to 1550.

Trade Deficit Spin
We get our usual spin again about the Trade Deficit. The WSJ announces
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $62 billion in March, the smallest gap in seven months and smaller than expected, as sales overseas set a record high and imports declined, said the Commerce Department.
But what was it in March of last year? I can't find the statistic in the story

What the chart shows is something quite a bit less than $60 Billion in March of 2005, and we didn't reach $62 Billion until September of 2005. So much for the spin on improvement.

The USD reached my initial target of 83.5 this morning. Soon I expect we will see 80.0 and then we should become more worried if that 80.0 level breaks.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

Iran Declares War
The NY Sun (You must be registered) declares Iran has declared war on the US with the letter from President Ahmadinejad to President Bush.

The closing salutation in the letter is:

"Vasalam Ala Man Ataba'al hoda." What this means is "Peace only unto those who follow the true path."

It is a phrase with historical significance in Islam, for, according to Islamic tradition, in year six of the Hejira - the late 620s - the prophet Mohammad sent letters to the Byzantine emperor and the Sassanid emperor telling them to convert to the true faith of Islam or be conquered. The letters included the same phrase that President Ahmadinejad used to conclude his letter to Mr. Bush. For Mohammad, the letters were a prelude to a Muslim offensive, a war launched for the purpose of imposing Islamic rule over infidels.

So, we are being told to convert to Islam or die, just as we were told by Al-Qaeda to convert prior to 9/11. It 's as if the Crusades never ended. It's the thousand year old war.

Update:

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Iran Declares War
  2. The GCC is concerned about Iran!
GATA and the WSJ
From the WSJ, Gold Bugs By Peter McKay The Wall Street Journal Thursday, May 11, 2006
Investing pros have begun pondering the possibility that gold will hit a record over $800 a troy ounce soon. This means that the gold bugs -- that patchwork of sometimes offbeat investors who love the shiny stuff -- are happier, and louder, than ever.

Gold futures for May delivery have risen this week 3.2%, or $21.50, to a 25-year high of $703.70 per troy ounce. In the past two years, prices have soared 86%.

"We all said what was going to happen and why," says Bill Murphy, an ex-professional football player and trader who heads up a group that goes by the name Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, or GATA.

There are lots of reasons behind the move: For one, the dollar has weakened, and seems headed lower. When people lose confidence in paper currency some turn to gold, which is still seen in some parts of the world as an alternative store of value, despite many years in disfavor. This reputation as a store of financial value means it is also seen as a hedge against inflation, which shows signs of picking up, and against political turmoil, like say, turmoil in Venezuela, Iran and Iraq.

For some gold bugs, though, it's rarely that simple. Back in 1999, when gold was at multiyear lows around $250, GATA argued the metal's price was being artificially suppressed by a cartel of large private banks selling borrowed gold, much of it on loan from powerful central banks. The latest stage of the rally, Mr. Murphy says, is because Russia has become a heavy buyer, helping to squeeze the alleged cartel.

"They're a little conspiratorial, for me even," says money manager Peter Schiff, an outspoken gold bug himself. "I don't know if there was any real orchestrated event."

Whatever the case, the gold bugs aren't alone anymore. The investment audience for the precious metal is broadening as hedge funds and others seek alternatives to stocks and bonds. Because the gold market is relatively small, in terms of physical metal available and the number of investors who have traditionally participated, even a small increase in mass appetite for the metal can result in more price increases.

Pick your reason. Gold seems headed higher still.

GATA gets recognition from the Wall Street Journal and Gold trades at $719.70! Some day, Huh!

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

American Idol - The Results
Wow, that was a shocker. Chris is out on American Idol! I predicted Taylor, and really worried that Katharine was going. Then tonight Ryan split the four into two groups Taylor and Elliott, and Chris and Katharine. Taylor and Elliott, one would think these two would be the bottom two. Nope. Chris and Katharine were the bottom two and I was sure that Katharine was gone. But, No. "Chris", Ryan said, "you are going home!" Wow. Chris looked shocked and Katharine looked like she dodged a bullet.

Tuesday, May 9, 2006

American Idol - May 9th
I gotta' tell ya', that was a disappoinying American Idol. I thought the boys had the advantage over Katharine. Elvis sang masculine songs, better for boys to sing. Elliott rose to the occasion and sang two songs very well. Taylor sang his first song all hunched over. I don't like that look. I liked Chris's first song better than the second. I thought Katharine was out of breath in the first song. This could be the week for Katharine to go, but I could see Taylor gone too.

I think we've seen the best from Chris and Taylor, maybe the best tonight from Elliott, still not the best from Katharine. Bye Taylor.

Gold, Silver and Oil Charts
Bill Cara carries this 5-minute bar chart of gold. This chart is pre-second session. where gold closed is now $700.50.

I was struck by the charts similarity to Silver daily chart (see chart). It's is scary to be long precious metals in a bull market. That is a scary decline from $14.50 to $11.70 in three days, yet we have broken out again. Looks like next target for Silver is $17 to $19!

While the chart of Light Crude is slightly different and more scary if you are long oil, could turn out the same way as Silver and Gold. (see chart)

Sunday, May 7, 2006

Guard the Borders Blogburst
Nuestro Himno: Is It Really "Our Anthem?" By Rahel B. Avraham of CustomerServant

The pro-illegal immigration folks now have their own campaign song. It’s called “Nuestro Himno,” (our anthem), and it’s peddlers say it’s just a re-interpretation of our national anthem, “The Star-spangled Banner.” Let’s see if that claim actually holds water.

First, an English translation of “Nuestro Himno.”

Verse 1

It’s sunrise. Do you see by the light of the dawn
What we proudly hailed last nightfall?
Its stars, its stripes
yesterday streamed
above fierce combat
a symbol of victory
the glory of battle, the march toward liberty.
Throughout the night, they proclaimed: “We will defend it!”

Chorus

Tell me! Does its starry beauty still wave
above the land of the free,
the sacred flag? Chant:

It’s time to make a difference the kids, men and the women
Let’s stand for our beliefs, let’s stand for our vision/What about the children, los ninos ?

These kids have no parents, cause all of these mean laws.
See this can’t happen, not only about the Latins.
Asians, blacks and whites and all they do is adding
more and more, let’s not start a war
with all these hard workers,
they can’t help where they were born.

Verse 2

Its stars, its stripes,
Liberty, we are the same.
We are brothers in our anthem.
In fierce combat, a symbol of victory
the glory of battle,
(My people fight on)
the march toward liberty.
(The time has come to break the chains.)
Throughout the night they proclaimed: “We will defend it!”
Tell me! Does its starry beauty still wave
above the land of