Mover Mike

map 1.0 2007/04/30 07:59:04 45.143N 120.906W 13.6 14 km ( 9 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.7 2007/04/29 01:59:20 45.115N 120.928W 8.0 14 km ( 9 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Two Quakes off the coast from Bandon, Oregon:

MAP 4.8 2007/04/29 00:49:06 43.484 -126.899 5.0 205 km (128 mi) WNW of Bandon, OR

MAP 3.9 2007/04/26 13:30:51 43.309 -127.049 10.0 215 km (133 mi) W of Bandon, OR

My friend Michael Hall writes

Great, another. I am getting paranoid about going to the beach. Would a 7.0 at the same place as the last two cause a tsunami?

I was in Neskowin in March and thought how vulnerable everything is and at high tide, the ocean came all the way to the foot of the recently installed rip-rap.

map 1.4 2007/04/27 20:31:21 45.516N 122.628W 19.6 1 km ( 1 mi) SE of Portland, OR

The epicenter looks like 6 blocks south of Laurelhurst Park on 35th.

James Turk writes that the Dollar is in freefall and uses this chart as evidence:

I don't know if you can have a head-and-shoulders formation that spans 14 or 15 years, but breaking 80 would sure be ominous. Meanwhile gold and silver in terms of the USD look like "up" is a long ways away.

USD James Turk Mover Mike

While we are on the subject of prostate cancer, WaPo has a story about advancements in detection of protate cancer: New Prostate Cancer Test May Detect More Tumors

An experimental blood test for prostate cancer may help eliminate tens of thousands of unnecessary biopsies at the same time that it detects many tumors that are now missed by the test commonly used, its developers said yesterday.

PSA, the current test, measures a protein normally produced by the prostate, while the experimental one, called EPCA-2, detects a chemical made principally in cancerous tissue.

A friend of mine undergoes a biopsy of his prostate every six to 12 months because his PSA is high. This test conceivably could do away with this painful procedure.

Prostate EPCA-2 Mover Mike >

Update:

map 2.4 2007/04/29 00:22:00 45.116N 120.936W 20.1 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.6 2007/04/27 03:51:21 45.119N 120.939W 12.1 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 2.6 2007/04/26 12:59:58 45.100N 122.506W 6.7 8 km ( 5 mi) SE of Molalla, OR

map 1.5 2007/04/26 12:05:20 45.110N 120.947W 8.1 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Once I turned 50, my doctor and I talked about my prostate and how best to monitor my health. We both decided that the digital exam was best and decided not to have the PSA test. The consequences of a high PSA number almost requires a biopsy and treatment if the biopsy reveals abnormalities. Then when I turned 62 we decided to have a PSA test. My first test was in June of 2006 and I tested a 5.2. That is on the higher end and the doctor suggested a biopsy. I decided that we had no baseline, that I would prefer to be tested in six months. I recognized that if the PSA was signaling a rapidly growing cancer, I could be in serious trouble in six months, but I decided to take the chance.

I recently had the second PSA test and it came back as a 6.2. No arguments from me. When can we schedule the biopsy? Last Wednesday I went for the procedure. The doc took 10 samples and today we discussed the results. Two of the ten came back as 3-3. I have Prostate Cancer.

The BIG C. Chevrolet Cranberries, Chocolate Chowder, Carborundum Chanticleer, Carpathian Corruption, Chinese Chop Suey, Capitalistic Carnivale, Commission Charlie! The "C" is just a letter, but one that brings dread. I'm okay so far, however my wife and I will have to decide on the correct treatment over the next 30 days. The choices are: monitor and do nothing for six months or a year, then another biopsy; radiation, either external or with implanted radioactive seeds or remove the prostate entirely. All have risks of incontinence and loss of sexual function and a variety of side effects.

Prostate cancer is becoming common in men my age. What has been your experience and what was your decision? Lastly, how are you doing today?

Prostate Cancer PSA Prostate Biopsy Mover Mike

MAP 6.3 2007/04/25 13:34:16 -14.287 166.819 69.3 VANUATU

map 1.6 2007/04/24 14:52:23 45.004N 122.691W 19.2 5 km ( 3 mi) SSW of Scotts Mills, OR

map 1.3 2007/04/24 06:28:31 45.115N 120.934W 12.8 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.1 2007/04/24 00:59:48 45.124N 120.928W 15.0 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

You didn't have to wait up for Mover Mike to tell you this was the best AI show this season for consistent, all-around performances. All contestants stepped up their games. Check it out:

Chris Richardson sang Change the World - This was actually pretty good. Chris kept the melody intact, but added his own take on such a well known song. My only problem is that Chris is beginning to sound the same each week. The same moves and the same earnestness.

Melinda Doolittle sang There Will Come A Day - Melinda is a professional and AI is hers to lose. I think this was her best song yet. It was intense and I was on the verge of chills.

Blake Lewis sang Imagine - I really like this guy, but there was no Blake in the song. I sang it the same way in the shower.

LaKisha Jones sang I Believe - LaKisha is in trouble. First a Carrie Underwood song, and now a Fantasia song and Paula thought Fantasia did it better. Again, she can imitate, but can she originate like the others. By that I mean can she put her own stamp on the song. Last season McPhee did Barbara Streisand and Michael Bolton one better when she sang Since I Fell for You

Phil Stacey sang The Change - Phil has a very good voice and I can see him doing a lot of country. Not in the top three.

Jordin Sparks sang You’ll Never Walk Alone - The judges think this song was the best performance in six seasons. It was very good, BUT the judges have a short memory. Clarkson sang many great songs, including A Moment Like This. Then there was Fantasia version of Summertime and McPhee in Somewhere over the Rainbow, and don't forget Jennifer Hudson.

BOTTOM THREE: Blake Lewis, LaKisha Jones and Phil Stacey!

American Idol AI Melinda Doolittle Lakisha Jones Chris Richardson Phil Stacey Jordin Sparks Blake Lewis Mover Mike

Update:

This from Bank Net360

Bond investors stand to lose as much as $75 billion on securities comprised of nonprime mortgages, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.

Newport Beach, Calif.-based Pacific manages one of the world’s biggest bond funds, with more than $600 billion of assets.

Investors are situated to take the brunt of asset-backed losses connected with the nonprime market, because they have replaced banks and thrifts as the primary source of funding for U.S. mortgages.

In Riverside County, California, a tripling of foreclosures has led to a steep drop in the value of bonds sold by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm.

Sold in Jan. 2006, the bonds used Riverside loans as collateral. Some of the lowest-rated portions of the securities now trade at $0.63 on the dollar, down from more than 100 cents in October, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch.

Ouch! That's going to leave a scar.

nonprime mortgages subprime mortgages Mover Mike

One of Earth's first rainforests has been found in an Illinois coal mine, where an earthquake entombed it 300 million years ago. At 10 square kilometers--roughly three times the size of New York City's Central Park--the discovery represents the largest swath of fossil forest ever seen.

[...]

The trees lived during a global warming period that eventually melted ice caps and reshaped coastlines. Researchers think that a massive die-off of the telephone-polelike lycopsid trees, certain fern species, and some marine creatures occurred around the same time.

Did you see that rain forest? And right in the middle of what has become the state of Illinois during global warming 300 million years ago. Are there any rain forests in Illinois today? Are conditions ripe for a tropical rain forest anywhere in the U.S. today? Was there a race of people driving cars and spewing CO2 300 million years ago? Then, what caused the global warming? Could it be a natural ebb and flow of the planet Earth?

GlobalWarming Ancient Rainforest Global Warming Hoax Mover Mike

map 1.3 2007/04/23 15:05:56 43.658N 123.234W 28.9 7 km ( 4 mi) E of Drain, OR

When it comes to unfunded pension liabilities, Forbes has the top five states as: California at $70 billion, New Jersey at $60 billion, New York at $54 billion, Texas at $26.8 billion and North Carolina at $23.8 billion.

Texas Comptroller Susan Combs says she won't follow a new national accounting standard that requires states and cities to disclose the estimated costs of benefits promised to retired workers, such as health care and life insurance.

[...]

Disclosing its future costs may force Texas to raise taxes, increase borrowing, sell assets or cut programs to come up with the money. Refusing to recognize them may jeopardize the ratings on $22 billion of outstanding bonds and prompt investors to demand higher yields when they lend to the state.

Oregon may have an unfunded pension liability as well. John Radford, State Controller, Oregon Department of Administrative Services writes

the state will receive the results from an actuary study around mid April of 2007

Several things popped out at me from the article in Bloomberg: if it isn't reported officials don't have to do anything about the problem; Managers who purchase bonds for mutual funds or hedge funds have a need to know; your pension benefits, unless in a defined plan, are only promises and Combs says The state has no legal obligation to provide such benefits; if the voters find out the real costs, they may refuse to vote for taxes to cover unfunded pension liabilities and thus benefits would be reduced; finally,

actuaries have told us it's nearly impossible to calculate numbers 30 years into the future

The NewsRegister reported

Oregon pension fund, battered by investment losses during the recession, once had a long-term deficit projected at $17 billion.

Because of the strong economy that deficit was reduced to $1.7 billion, so you can see the problem with estimates, but to refuse to disclose is a whole different issue.

unfunded pension liabilities Texas Comptroller Susan Combs SusanCombs John Radford, State Controller Mover Mike

Reminds me of the movie Final Destination:

A Virginia Tech freshman who returned home with his family after last week's campus massacre was killed in a car crash, his father said Sunday.

[...]

(Jeff) Soriano's vehicle flipped several times and struck a tree before coming to a rest, investigators said. The cause of the crash was not known.

Virginia Tech Jeff Soriano Mover Mike

MAP 6.2 2007/04/21 17:53:47 -45.266 -72.496 38.1 AISEN, CHILE

MAP 6.3 2007/04/21 07:12:47 -3.550 151.311 401.5 NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

How do you answer the question my friends asked, "What's wrong with Socialism?" I don't have a canned elevator spiel on the problems, but I was reminded of the question today. I received am email from NewsMax.com with the headline of a story: Ethanol Boom Could Boost US Natural Gas Prices. I have posted about ethanol before, here, and I was interested in the subject.

You will recall that the meddling began as the government "offered farmers millions of dollars in incentives to produce the fuel in an attempt to cut imports of foreign oil." Interfering in the market is where the problems began. Besides the inefficiencies of ethanol in our cars, using corn began to have an effect on corn prices as we consumed food for fuel. Higher prices for corn are great for farmers, but already Mexican peasents are feeling the price impact on corn prices for corn-based foods.The article states that "farmers this year are planning to plant a bumper crop of corn, possibly the most since World War II. Corn fields consume large amounts of fertilizer, the ammonia of which comes from natural gas." In addition, 78 ethanol plants are under construction and seven undergoing expansion. "If all the new plants and expansions come on line, total capacity will be above 12 billion gallons per year, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.

Up to 95 percent of U.S. ethanol plants use natural gas boilers"

So now the government's meddling has created two new demands for natural gas and demand causes the price to go up if supply is limited. Which it is. Here's a chart of Natural Gas (see chart). You can see that the price has been contained under $8.00 for most of 2006 and 2007. It appears to me that it is getting ready to move back to the $10.00-$12.00 area. Here are some of the uses for Natural Gas:

Furnaces
Pool and Spa Heaters
Clothes Dryers
Outdoor Lights
Barbecues
Water Heaters
Stoves/Ranges
Fireplace Logs
Patio Heaters and Fire Pits

When winter comes and the poor can't pay for the higher prices of natural gas, who do you suppose is going to pick up the tab?

Here's another problem, production of natural gas peaked in 1970, despite higher prices and increased drilling:

The six largest countries in order of Proved reserves (trillion cu ft)of Natural Gas are

1. Russia 1,680
   Iran 971
   Qatar 911
   Saudi Arabia 241
   United Arab Emirates 214
   United States 193

Seems to me the end result is heavier demand and greater reliance on the very countries that we swore we would cut imports of foreign oil.

Socialists turn to government to solve short term problems and don't bother to think of the long term consequences. What happens if corn-based products go up in price? Socialists want to step in and subsidize or tax or resort to price controls.

Ethanol is a boondoggle. It is bad for the environment, bad for our cars and bad for our pocketbooks. If the government would stay the hell out, we would see higher prices for oil and gas which in turn would inspire creative solutions, like Zero Point Energy applications. More on that later.

Socialism Natural Gas Ethanol Corn fertilizer Mover Mike

Eric Musselman was fired as Kings coach Friday after one season on the job

Tell me again why Adelman was fired!

Update:My friend Michael Hall writes:

Well, Rick had a great, almost old school, beautiful to watch, cutting and passing attack with good shooters, role players and other sharp and brilliant elements, along with a smart, hustle defense; this instead of a one-on-one, everybody else stand around and watch while one guy dribbles and tries to post up and/or dunk or draw a foul or crank up a long one when time is running out offense and a let the other guys do it, "I'm a Star" defense. That's about it in a nutshell. Cya

Just once I would like the sociopath get the order of the killing wrong!

A NASA contract worker took a handgun inside an office building Friday at the Johnson Space Center and fatally shot a hostage before killing himself

Update:

The Oregonian says that

Multnomah County Commissioner Ted Wheeler proposed an unflinchingly tough budget that slashes $15 Million in services

Slashes! So how big is this budget? The proposed Multnomah County budget is $367 Million and that $15 Million amounts to just over a 4% cut. Now come on, surely if you are spending $100 a week for food and you wanted to cut 4% you could do without a half gallon of ice cream costing $3.99. That doesn't seem like a slash.

Then we have theose stupid City of Portland officials that found a $36 Million surplus and are trying to figure out how to spend it. I would fire immediately any publicist for the city that allowed that kind of language to get out of city official mouths. Has anyone heard of the possible options: Give it back to the citizens of Portland. Let them figure out how they want to spend that money. In a city of 500,000 that's $52 apiece. That would buy a tank of gas, half of my groceries for a week, two nights out at the movies, or an oil change. Here's another option for the city: save the money. We might need it next year. Or how about loaning it to Multnomah County at 5% for a year. The interest alone of $750,000 could fix up the rec center in St. Johns!

We need some housewives or some flinty eyed accountants to budget and spend the money that the governmental bodies rake in, not these thieves.

Multnomah County Commissioner Ted Wheeler City of Portland Mover Mike

Update:

Third Largest sub-prime lender to be sold

H&R Block Inc., the largest tax preparer in the U.S., agreed to sell its money-losing subprime home-loan unit (Option One Mortgage Corp.) to Cerberus Capital Management LP at a discount as defaults by the riskiest borrowers surge.

Things are shaking in Japan:

MAP 5.3 2007/04/20 03:28:55 25.676 125.426 10.0 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

MAP 5.1 2007/04/20 03:00:58 25.664 125.380 10.0 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

MAP 5.9 2007/04/20 02:23:34 25.633 125.044 10.0 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

MAP 6.1 2007/04/20 01:45:57 25.739 125.222 10.0 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

MAP 5.6 2007/04/20 00:31:07 25.740 125.080 57.5 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

MAP 6.0 2007/04/20 00:26:46 25.664 125.103 50.4 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

map 1.9 2007/04/19 00:32:30 45.115N 120.934W 12.8 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

You have waited long enough. Mover Mike speaks:

Phil Stacey sang Where The Blacktop Ends - Excellent, he's a cowboy singer and he chose a good song. The only thing missing is the cowboy hat to cover the white man's bald head.

Jordin Sparks sang Broken Wing - Simon says she could win this thing. She is so darn cute and finally a song that I will replay again.

LaKisha Jones sang Jesus, Take the Wheel - this is not a happy woman. She took a Carrie Underwood song and sang it the same way as Carrie. There was nothing new and was actually boring. She is lost and there is no there, there.

Chris Richardson sang Mayberry - Martina said sing the song to make them believe you. How can I believe Chris about remembering Mayberry when he wasn't even alive when it was on TV? The song was too old for him.

Melinda Doolittle sang Trouble is a Woman - the winner of the night and one of the top two finalists with Jordin.

Blake Lewis sang When The Stars Go Blue - I had a little trouble with his falsetto and the shift back to a lower octave. He is NOT a country singer.

Sanjaya Malakar sang Let’s Give Them Something To Talk About - the "guy" sang a girl song. He doesn't deserve to be in the top ten, top nine, top eight, top seven and certainly not the top six!

Bottom three: Sanjaya, Chris and LaKisha.

American Idol AI Melinda Doolittle Lakisha Jones Chris Richardson Phil Stacey Jordin Sparks Blake Lewis Sanjaya Malakar Mover Mike

Update:

MAP 2.2 2007/04/17 07:29:04 45.115 -120.935 12.9 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Maupin Earthquake Mover Mike

Note to Gov. Kulongowski:

RAPID CITY — A big problem is looming for state government, and it all stems from rapidly falling sales of tobacco products, according to state Sen. Bill Napoli, R-Rapid City.

Effective Jan. 1, the state tax increased by $1 for a 20-stick pack of cigarettes and by $1.25 for a 25-cigarette pack. The tax on all other items, such as cigars and chewing tobacco, jumped from 10 percent to 35 percent of the wholesale price.

Voters approved the increases in the 2006 general election.

The 2007 Legislature passed bills to use extra money from the tobacco tax to boost spending on education, cut local property taxes and support health care for poor people.

But Bill Napoli said the funding source already is starting to dwindle.

"I am still laying awake at night looking at the ceiling, saying, 'Who the hell thought this up? Who figured this deal out?' Because man, I'll tell you what, this is going to be a mess in the next two to three years," he said.

Officials said tobacco sales dropped dramatically in the first three months of 2007.

And Napoli said he expects a 50 percent sales drop within the next five years, adding that the effects will already be evident during the 2008 legislative session.

Basic Economics 101: Price goes up, Demand goes down.

Cigarette Tax Oregon Healthy Kid's Plan Mover Mike

I came across BlogNetNews.com/Oregon (BNN). In the "About Us" section they write:

We're not interested in reprinting your posts and we don't have an ideological ax to grind. We are going to use your feeds and the feeds of top bloggers from your online community to create new content and information that will organize this slice of the Internet making it work better for bloggers and their readers.

Mover Mike has over 500 blogs linking to it and averages almost 300 visitors a day, so I thought this blog should be listed on BNN. BNN says:

Want your blog listed on the front of Oregon BlogNetNews? Think your blog should be part of BNN? Put a link to us in your blogroll and send an email with your feed's url to editor@blognetnews.com and we'll fix it.

So I emailed BNN:

BlogNetNews/Oregon has been added to Mover Mike's blogroll. Please add Mover mike to yours: http://www.movermike.com/

I received this email in response:

I'd like to have your blog in BNN Oregon -- I am wondering whether there is any way for you to set up an RSS that does not include all the earthquake stuff?

Best,
Dave Mastio

Now I think there is a major story brewing in Maupin and near the 121 degree longitudinal line in Oregon and Washington over these earthquakes. I intend to continue to cover the quakes and find out more about the geology of trhe area. I emailed Mastio:

I don't know how. Next you'll want me to exclude the American Idol stuff, or the book review stuff about Christian subjects or pro Constitution stuff. I vary my subjects over the course of a month to suit all my interests. Right now there is some reason we are having more earthquakes and more Maupin quakes. Take it all or don't take any of it.

Many successful blogs are focused on one subject, politics or economics. Others, Jack Bog's Blog for example, cover a whole variety of subjects. I would get bored if I only commented on one subject.

I haven't heard back from Mastio. His request struck me as censorship.

MAP 1.6 2007/04/15 20:56:43 45.125 -120.935 7.4 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

British Chancellor Gordon Brown sold off more than half of England's gold reserves (400 tonnes of bullion in a series of auctions between 1999 and 2002, when the price was at a 20-year low) and, it was revealed, disregarded advice from the Bank of England.

* The Bank of England, which has managed Britain's gold reserves for more than 300 years, was never asked for its advice on whether Britain should sell the gold. A senior bank executive said the timing of the huge bullion sale was "not debated".

* At a secret meeting with senior gold traders, Bank of England officials were warned that the proposed auctions would achieve the worst price for taxpayers. The officials are understood to have agreed with the analysis, but said they were powerless to influence the Treasury.

* Several Asian countries, including China, are named by an insider as having bought the gold "on the cheap" from the British. The Chinese may have made more than pound stg. 1 billion from Mr Brown's botched sell-off.

Who benefitted from the sale besides the Asian countries? Was this part of the U.S. strong dollar policy of capping the price of gold initiated under Sec. of Treasury Robert Rubin? What kind of leverage did we have over the British? Maybe we are closer to some answers!

British Chancellor Gordon Brown Gold Mover Mike

Update:

Bill Murphy at LeMetropole Cafe has much more to say about the story including a reminder that the major bullion banks were heavily short Gold at the time and trading in Gold was challenging a major price level of $290 an ounce. A breakout above that level would mean huge losses. Just before the British announcement of an auction of 415 tonnes,

Deutsche Bank (today, we heard J.P. Morgan too) told their clients, "THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL NOT RISE ABOVE $290. How did they both know that?

Today, we are once again at a significant level on the USD, perched just a bit above the critical 80.00 level and Gold looking strong at $685. The bullion banks are even more short Gold today as a result of their gold capping efforts. Is it a coincidense that

Japan's finance minister said Saturday he had proposed to the International Monetary Fund's policy-steering body that the fund sell its gold reserves (3,200 tonnes) to cover its falling income.

The leaders of the central banks have no interest in Gold serving as a barometer of inflation and our U.S. leaders will do everything possible to keep the lie a secret that there is no inflation. They will do everything possible to keep the fiat money system alive.

I just finished reading "The Wild Trees" by Richard Preston, author of the bestselling "The Hot Zone". It is a book about discovering and climbing the tallest and oldest trees in the world, the Redwoods in Northern California. It is a "spellbinding story of Steve Sillett, Marie Antoine, (Michael Taylor, and the tiny group of daring botanists and amateur naturalists that found a lost world above California, dangerous, hauntingly beautiful and unexplored."

Have you ever climbed a tall tree? I grew up with a big cherry tree in my back yard and I climbed that tree when I was six. Later, I free climbed deciduous trees as high as I could go and felt the wind move the tree and saw views that few in a two story neighborhood would ever see. This book feeds into that wonder, only with climbers that learned how to climb giant trees upwards of 360 feet tall. Preston writes so you care about the climbers, demonstrates how dangerous climbing can be, and fills you with wonder about these big trees and the biodiversity that exists in the canopy. I couldn't put the book down.

Jim Spickler, who climbed with Steve Sillett and Marie Antoine, describes what it's like to climb the world's tallest tree:

This second movie shows how to climb to the top of "Methuselah", the well-known coast redwood tree in San Mateo County, CA. (Part 1 and 2)

Redwoods The Wild Trees Richard Preston Steve Sillett Mover Mike

MAP 2.1 2007/04/13 11:37:12 45.308 -119.306 2.3 20 km ( 12 mi) ESE of Heppner, OR

Update:

Google Map of Location

It's been a busy two days for 6.0s:

MAP 6.1 2007/04/13 18:24:19 -35.062 -108.864 10.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

A strong earthquake shook southern Mexico early Friday, knocking out power in parts of Mexico City and Acapulco, swaying tall buildings and sending frightened people into the streets in their pajamas.

MAP 6.0 2007/04/13 05:42:24 17.353 -100.101 35.3 GUERRERO, MEXICO

MAP 6.0 2007/04/12 18:24:48 -61.846 160.662 1.3 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION

NYTimes spends 36 hours in "nice" Portland and lives to write about it.

Basil Childers for The New York Times

Portland Oregon Travel Mover Mike

Update:

In the summer when some city or state has record heat the MSM will be saying it's all because of global warming. Well, how about these headlines:

Chicago breaks 1957 record...the record for most snow on this day in April was set in 1957. That record has just been broken.

North Dakota breaks 1945 snowfall...

Bismarck received a total of 6.2 inches, 5.5 of those coming Tuesday and eclipsing the single-day snowfall amount of 4.2 inches set in 1945.

The daily Maupin earthquake:

MAP 1.8 2007/04/11 11:55:12 45.123 -120.934 8.0 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Maupin Earthquake Mover Mike

Your wait is over. Mover Mike is here to drop some words.

Melinda Doolittle sang Sway - Safe and boring. I am waiting for her to give me goose bumps. This performance made my dad of 86 seem young.

Lakisha Jones sang Conga - Right now I don't think she will be in the top three. I just don't see anything original with her.

Chris Richardson sang Smooth - Oh ma Ga'odd! I would put him in the top four! Doesn't hurt to pick a Santana song.

Haley Scarnato sang Turn the Beat Around - Her legs aren't that great. Bottom three.

Phil Stacey sang Maria Maria - Part of me says Cancerman sounds a bit like Michael McDonald, another part says he sounds constipated.

Jordin Sparks sang Rhythm is Gonna Get You - I actually clapped when she was through. Maybe it wasn't her best, but she wowed me more than the other women. She made the song seem young.

Blake Lewis sang I Need To Know - The beat boxer did good. He was smart choosing a song by Marc Anthony.

Sanjaya Malakar sang Bésame Mucho - It actually was better than Haley's performance and I can see Latinos adopting him as one of their own.

AI started out so promising. I am still waiting for a ballad that sends me to the computer to download the song. Big snooze!

American Idol AI Melinda Doolittle Lakisha Jones Chris Richardson Haley Scarnato Phil Stacey Jordin Sparks Blake Lewis Sanjaya Malakar Mover Mike

Scientists using NASA satellite data have found strong evidence that a major earthquake can lead to a nearly immediate increase in regional volcanic activity.

[...]

While scientists have long debated whether earthquakes can trigger new volcanic eruptions, this study linked an earthquake to enhanced volcanic activity at two ongoing eruptions that were being closely monitored by satellite-based sensors on a daily basis.

[...]

the researchers believe underground stresses from the earthquake's seismic waves likely acted to pump magma — molten rock beneath the surface — into the conduit to the surface, ultimately increasing eruption rates.

Bottom Line: regional earthquakes have sufficient power to modify the intensity of activity at ongoing eruptions. It is still not clear if they are able to trigger new volcanic eruptions.

NASA Earthquakes Mover Mike

MAP 1.4 2007/04/10 10:52:35 45.116 -120.934 13.6 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

This story caught my eye:

Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co.’s [ticker: LEND] largest shareholder has sold all but 760 of its 3.09 million shares in the company, according to an updated 13G filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

[...]

Late last month, Accredited took out a $200 million loan, at 13% interest, from San Francisco-based hedge fund Farallon Capital Management, which owns 7% of the company. Around that same time, Chicago-based Citadel Investment Group (Sequoia Fund) bought 4.5% of Accredited’s outstanding shares.

The last three years of their Sequoia Fund's performance:

12/31/04
	Fund 4.66%	S&P 10.88%
12/31/05
	Fund 7.78%	S&P 4.91%
12/31/06
	Fund 8.34%	S&P 15.80%

I thought in light of the bankruptcies in the sub-prime market, it seemed a risky move to loan $200 Million in what appears to be a way to save your $53 million stock investment. Here's what has happened to the stock price:

Below are the major institutional holders of Accredited Home Lenders as of Dec 31, 2006:

EARNEST PARTNERS LLC	2,438,472	9.65	$66,692,209	31-Dec-06
NOW SOLD - EUBEL BRADY & SUTTMAN ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.	2,056,941	8.14	$56,257,336	31-Dec-06
FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1,975,000	7.82	$54,016,250	31-Dec-06
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1,797,870	7.12	$49,171,744	31-Dec-06
RUANE, CUNNIFF & CO, INC	1,687,476	6.68	$46,152,468	31-Dec-06
PUTNAM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC	1,038,339	4.11	$28,398,571	31-Dec-06
Wesley Capital Management, LLC	976,600	3.87	$26,710,010	31-Dec-06
Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd	791,473	3.13	$21,646,786	31-Dec-06
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	700,959	2.77	$19,171,228	31-Dec-06
MORGAN STANLEY	676,699	2.68	$18,507,717	31-Dec-06

The position at the top is Earnest Partners L.L.C run by Paul E. Viera, widely praised as one of the Top 50 Black Executives in Atlanta.

Paul E. Viera

Chief Executive Officer EARNEST Partners L.L.C. Age: 42 Education: B.A., University of Michigan;M.A., M.B.A., Harvard Business School; Responsibilities: He oversees the operations of EARNEST Partners, which currently has $13.5 billion in assets under management. In addition to managing three asset classes at his own firm, Viera subadvises for The Harbor Fund's Small-cap Value Fund. (where as of Jan 31, 2007 held 500,000 shares of Accredited Home Lenders In 1993 he developed return pattern recognition, an investment methodology used to select equities at his Atlanta-based firm, which has led to much of his success.

Isn't it interesting how major investors can make the same mistakes ordinary investors make: doubling up, selling at the bottom and buying a falling knife. They also could be right. We'll know this year! Accredited Home Lenders LEND Farallon Capital Management Sub-prime Mortgage Mover Mike

Johnny Hart died, the creator of my two favorite comics on any morning.

I will never forget when Rodney says to the King, "The peasents are revolting." and the king says, "You can say that again!"

I think he captured the thoughts of many political elites, right there in that cartoon. Where ever you are Johnny Hart, your strips were always revolting. I loved that about you.

Johnny Hart BC Wizard of Id Mover Mike

Tell me again why the Sacramento Kings, (30-44), who will miss the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons, fired Rick Adelman!

Sacramento Kings Rick Adelman NBA Basketball Mover Mike

What's happening to the New Jersey pension fund for teachers, reported by the NYT, (by subscription or registration only), is a microcosm of the U.S. Social Security entitlement program.

New Jersey has been diverting billions of dollars from its pension fund for state and local workers into other government purposes over the last 15 years, using a variety of unorthodox transactions authorized by the Legislature and by governors from both political parties.

[...]

State officials say the fund is in dire shape, with a serious deficit. It has enough to pay retirees for several years, but without big contributions, paid for by cuts elsewhere in the state’s programs, higher taxes or another source, the fund could soon be caught in a downward spiral that could devastate the state’s fiscal health. Under its Constitution, New Jersey cannot reduce earned pension benefits.

Social security has the same future and the solution is to raise SS taxes, increase the retirement age and/or cut benefits.

New Jersey may have a $56 billion deficit. If New Jersey is drawing scrutiny from Congress,

Members of the United States Senate have asked the Government Accountability Office for a review of public pension operations and whether new rules are needed.

the SEC

in New Jersey like San Diego, officials put false information about the pension fund into bond offering statements. After an investigation, the S.E.C. found it amounted to securities fraud.

and the IRS, in New Jersey

like San Diego, the city was using its pension fund to pay other expenses, like retiree health care costs. The money in pension funds gets preferred tax treatment and must be spent solely on pensions.

then Social Security should face the same hard looks by the respective agencies.

New Jersey pension fund for teachers Social Security Mover Mike

I pointed out in Is A Bigger One Due In Maupin? on 06 Apr 2007 that Michael Hall, in an email to me, writes that in Bend the Humane Society of Central Oregon is flooded with dogs.

The last time that I know this occurred was between Jan 20 and 29th. A 3.0 hit Maupin on the 20th, followed by a 1.1 and a 2.1. I do not know if there were any quakes in or nearer to Bend at the time.

Well we just had a 3.1 near Maupin!

MAP 3.1 2007/04/08 09:40:41 45.126 -120.936 23.1 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

The blog Earthquake Prediction by Tiempe has made some predictions based, as I understand it, on pain in her body. Those painful places are symptoms of where earthquakes will take place in the world. She has a reasonable good hit rate.

For Tuesday, 10 April 2007:

Portland, Oregon area (45.520 -122.633)
(Second day symptom - STRONG)
to Greenwater, WA area (46.876 -121.645)
(Second day symptom - Strong)

For Monday, 9 April 2007:

Portland, Oregon area
(45.520 -122.633)(MEDIUM)
to Greenwater, WA area
(46.876 -121.645)

Worth watching!

Tiempe Earthquakes Portland,+ Oregon Mover Mike

MAP 2.1 2007/04/06 09:13:10 45.115 -120.934 13.6 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Update:

MAP 1.7 2007/04/07 03:14:40 45.115 -120.931 13.7 14 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Michael Hall points out in an email to me that in Bend the Humane Society of Central Oregon is flooded with dogs.

The last time that I know this occurred was between Jan 20 and 29th. A 3.0 hit Maupin on the 20th, followed by a 1.1 and a 2.1. I do not know if there were any quakes in or nearer to Bend at the time.

Nothing yet!

Bend, Oregon Humane Society of Central Oregon Maupin Earthquake Mover Mike

MAP 1.6 2007/04/05 23:22:36 45.115 -120.932 19.9 14 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

MAP 1.5 2007/04/06 00:44:13 45.520 -122.633 10.1 1 km ( 0 mi) ESE of Portland, OR

The quake epicenter would be about SE Pine three blocks west of Laurelhurst Park about 6.3 miles deep.

MAP 6.3 2007/04/05 03:56:50 37.384 -24.618 10.0 AZORES ISLANDS REGION

Update:

MAP 6.0 2007/04/07 07:09:26 37.360 -24.501 10.0 AZORES ISLANDS REGION

MAP 2.8 2007/04/04 22:30:49 42.316 -121.819 2.7 11 km ( 7 mi) NNW of Klamath Falls, OR

MAP 1.0 2007/04/04 19:39:05 43.342 -118.272 8.0 69 km ( 43 mi) ESE of Burns, OR

MAP 1.5 2007/04/04 18:01:01 44.277 -123.483 7.6 15 km ( 9 mi) WSW of Monroe, OR

Update:

MAP 1.9 2007/04/04 20:25:27 45.129 -120.931 15.1 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

MAP 1.5 2007/04/04 09:36:46 45.121 -120.930 14.9 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Update:

What's happening to the New Jersey pension fund for teachers, reported by the NYT, (by subscription or registration only), is a microcosm of the U.S. Social Security entitlement program.

New Jersey has been diverting billions of dollars from its pension fund for state and local workers into other government purposes over the last 15 years, using a variety of unorthodox transactions authorized by the Legislature and by governors from both political parties.

[...]

State officials say the fund is in dire shape, with a serious deficit. It has enough to pay retirees for several years, but without big contributions, paid for by cuts elsewhere in the state’s programs, higher taxes or another source, the fund could soon be caught in a downward spiral that could devastate the state’s fiscal health. Under its Constitution, New Jersey cannot reduce earned pension benefits.

Social security has the same future and the solution is to raise SS taxes, increase the retirement age and/or cut benefits.

New Jersey may have a $56 billion deficit. If New Jersey is drawing scrutiny from Congress,

Members of the United States Senate have asked the Government Accountability Office for a review of public pension operations and whether new rules are needed.

the SEC

in New Jersey like San Diego, officials put false information about the pension fund into bond offering statements. After an investigation, the S.E.C. found it amounted to securities fraud.

and the IRS, in New Jersey

like San Diego, the city was using its pension fund to pay other expenses, like retiree health care costs. The money in pension funds gets preferred tax treatment and must be spent solely on pensions.

then Social Security should face the same hard looks by the respective agencies.

New Jersey pension fund for teachers Social Security Mover Mike

I know you are out there waiting for "What did Mover Mike Say?" Well. I found the whole thing boring. Who wants to hear 17 year olds sing songs that an 80 year old man likes. And...who wants to hear the advice given by Tony Bennett and then watch that advice thrown out the window.

Blake Lewis sang Mack the Knife — Blake has that bad hair back and I'm tired of his Michael Jackson moves. Who cares!

Phil Stacey sang Night and Day — Cancer man had dead eyes, and this song he was singing to his wife! Who cares!

Melinda Doolittle sang I Got Rhythm — Let's crown her and start over. She's like the star center for Ohio State wondering if he should go pro before his sophomore year. Do it!

Chris Richardson sang Mr. Saturday Dance — do we need another Justin Timberlake for Cameron Diaz to date? Willie Nelson sang it better. Who cares?

Jordin Sparks sang On A Clear Day — I love that big hair, that big mouth and her big butt. This girl can sing. If it weren't for Melinda and LaKisha, she would be the next Kelly Clarkson!

Gina Glocksen sang Smile — It was forgettable and not her kind of song. I wouldn't buy her CD to hear her sing that kind of song. And really who cares!

Sanjaya Malakar sang Cheek to Cheek — Sanjaya is trying to distract you from his voice each week by his clothes and hair.

Haley Scarnato sang Ain’t Bisbehavin’ — Haley began, when this competition started weeks ago, singing, like she's never had an orgasm, songs for Christian music stations. Now she is trying to distract us with her breasts and long legs from her Miss America pageant act. It might work for a few weeks, but none of us teased by her will bed her. Frankly, she is no Katharine McPhee!

LaKisha Jones sang Stormy Weather — I've said she is not creative. She is a great mimic of other great artists, but there is no there, there. Tonight she created and the melody was lost. Who cares!

Now you can go to sleep, 'cause you got this week's Mover Mike.

American Idol AI Haley Scarnato Mover Mike

MAP 6.3 2007/04/04 11:00:28 -20.732 168.875 10.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS

MAP 6.2 2007/04/04 06:34:35 -7.775 156.495 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

MAP 6.0 2007/04/04 00:39:45 -7.121 156.073 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

MAP 6.3 2007/04/03 20:26:15 -20.695 168.864 41.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS

Update:

Update:

MAP 2.0 2007/04/04 00:42:53 45.123 -120.946 16.9 12 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

MAP 1.5 2007/04/03 07:37:13 45.113 -120.925 14.4 14 km ( 9 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

After a funeral, I've found I become more reflective about my life and life in general. My wife and I spent the weekend after the funeral at the beach with friends from Bend. We stayed at Neskowin and brought Ralph the Dog. It was his first time running in the surf and sand. What a treat watching him chase waves, lie in the water, then rub his face in the sand. I love getting up at 6:00 and going for a walk, just Ralph and me.

It dawned on me that it has been almost 40 years since I got a job in the investment business. I started when I turned 24 at $450 a month. Imagine a college graduate making $450 a month. I remember turning 30 and I met my goal of earning my age. By the time I was 40, I was divorced driving a red Porsche, dating a 22-year old woman, drinking like a fish and trying to impress my dad with my monthly commission checks of $25,000. You know it didn't take long for it all to come crashing down. In 1987 the market crashed and I wasn't the same again. I remember buying Barron's one Saturday, sitting in the bar at the Marriott, reading about the money lost in the crash and dissolving into tears. I stayed around until 1994, but never regained my drive as a stockbroker.

A lot has changed in 40 years. I bought my first house off 63rd and NE Glisan for $14,500, sold it for $42,500 and built a 3,000 sq ft house on the west side for $90,000. Breakfast of ham and eggs, hashbrowns and coffee was $3.00 at a little place on SW Broadway across from Mary's. One of my best clients was the president of a public company and he made $250,000 a year. I didn't think we were too far apart. I bought several wool suits at Lipmans for $35 when I first started work as a broker. Now breakfast at the Otis Cafe is $40 for four. The president of the corporation is probably earning $5 to $50 Million a year and that suit is $1,500. The median price house in Portland is near $450,000.

A lot of things are 10 to 50 times more expensive today than they were 40 years ago and it is sign that I'm getting old when I start thinking like this. After all, it was my Dad who told me how it was when he was a kid:

I was given a quarter to go to the store to get a pail of milk, a loaf of bread and there was still enough left to get a penny candy.

He didn't say he had to walk 14 miles to school, ...in the snow, ...uphill, ...both ways; but you knew he was itching to.

I worry that there is a growing disparity between the rich and the not so rich. But, the rich, rich only make up about 1% of the population. The rest of us think about budgets, retirement, rising prices for almost everything including health care, and our way of life that seems to be beset from all sides.

I wonder some times, if I had it to do all over again would I do things differently. Probably not! I am who I am. I am wiser but that has come from experience and experience has come from the choices I made.

Neskowin Oregon Mover Mike

Back in August, I wrote about Murryhill in the finals:

We have a special interest in our Oregon team. One of my wife's best friends for over 50 years is Cathy DeJardin, sister of Tom DeJardin father of Devon DeJardin. Devon was a hero in one game and helped Derek Keller pitch tonight a combined no-hitter, winning 4 to 3. His grandfather is in a nursing home down near Salem and is considered a real sports fan. I am sure he is very proud of his grand son and the whole team from Beaverton.

Pat DeJardin, the grandfather, died last week at 84. Irish, born on St Paddy's day, he complained on one of his last days that his son made his drink too weak.

Pat distinguished himself as a combat infantryman with the 3rd ID in the European theater during WWII. His unit was involved in combat throughout Italy, Southern France, Central Europe, and the Rhineland. ...in the course of his duty he was awarded the Bronze Star for meritorious service while engaged in combat; the Bronze Service Arrowhead; the ditinguished Unit Badge with one oak cluster, the CIB, the European African Middle Eastern Service Medal; and the Good Conducy Medal. His commander, the most decorated veteran of WWII alive, was there at Willamette National to see his friend and fellow soldier off.

The service was a military ceremony complete with rifle volleys, taps and presentation of the flag. The one phrase in the Eulogy that will forever be with me, is in speaking of Pat DeJardin, the chaplain said Pat's life was "handcrafted by God."

Robert Patrick DeJardin Mover Mike

Economic's professor, Joseph C. Blumel, died Monday at the age of 79. The Oregonian says he helped bring a fledgling Portland State University into maturity during his 12 years as president.

I remember him as my macro economics professor in the mid-sixties. I still have the text book for his course, "Economic Analysis" by Kenneth Boulding, copyright 1955. Man that was a tough course. I took the first term and passed the class. Second term, I got behind and started skipping class. I either dropped it or failed the test. The next time I had a chance to take second term, I passed and went on to third term. Same thing happened and I flunked the class. Back I came for the third term and passed as I recall. Through it all, Mr. Blumel treated me with respect.

I looked up Kenneth E. Boulding and found this quote:

The World is a very complex system. It is easy to have too simple a view of it, and it is easy to do harm and to make things worse under the impulse to do good and make things better.

—Kenneth Boulding

I read a lot about our universities and their left leanings. Those words by Boulding mean a lot to me. They say to me that man in his arrogance believes he can control the economy and even the climate. Boulding and Blumel taught the opposite and I thank Joseph C. Blumel for his contibution to my education. I am proud to have graduated from PSU.

Joseph C. Blumel Kenneth Boulding Economic Analysis Portland State University Mover Mike

MAP 6.2 2007/04/03 03:35:07 36.528 70.668 210.5 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

MAP 1.5 2007/04/02 19:04:03 44.585 -121.529 42.2 26 km ( 16 mi) WNW of Culver, OR

MAP 1.8 2007/04/02 08:14:17 45.116 -120.950 10.9 12 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Update:

On March 14th, I posted here about the ten largest sub-prime lenders. The second largest with 7.% of the market was New Century.

Today New Century delared bankruptcy:

New Century Financial Corp. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The Irvine, Calif.-based company has become an emblem of the recent turmoil in the subprime market caused by a loss of confidence among investors who buy loans from such lenders. Last month, New Century stopped making loans because too many creditors had cut off funding.

[...]

In connection with the Chapter 11 filing, New Century said it will reduce its work force by about 3,200, or 54%, to cut costs and resize certain businesses in preparation for a possible sale, effective immediately.

Why would the banks cut off funding? One answer: The banks were holding New Century mortgages as collateral for $8.5 billion worth of loans! The loans were sub-prime and slipping in value, fast.

New Century Sub-Prime Mortgage Loans Mover Mike

MAP 2.6 2007/04/01 15:44:30 45.127 -120.949 19.8 12 km ( 7 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

MAP 1.4 2007/03/31 18:01:23 45.119 -120.936 12.7 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

The Washington Post has an article about Mt. St. Helens:

...the St. Helens appears to have become an "open system" as its domebuilding eruption that began in the fall of 2004 continues at a pace that has been unchanged for the past year, said Daniel Dzurisin, a geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey's Cascades Volcano Observatory.

This pair of Jan. 23, 2007 photos released by the U.S. Geological Survey's Cascades Volcano Observatory, shows Mount St. Helens' dome as seen from the north, top, with a matching thermal-imaging infrared image, bottom. Scientists say Mount St. Helens may be following the example of the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii, with magma being replaced from a reservoir beneath the volcano as fast as it emerges as lava at the surface. (AP Photo/Courtesy U.S. Geological Survey's Cascades Volcano Observatory, Julie Griswold and Matt Logan) (Julie Griswold And Matt Logan - AP)

Mount St. Helens Molton Rock Mover Mike

The Man Group, the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund operator, said Friday that it would spin off its brokerage division to focus on its asset management unit.

The step has been in the works for years but was delayed to give Man time to integrate into its brokerage operation some customer accounts and assets it acquired in 2005 from Refco, the American futures broker that went bankrupt.

Man, based in London, plans to list a majority stake in the brokerage unit, which will be renamed MF Global, on the New York Stock Exchange in the third quarter of this year and return the proceeds to shareholders.

The business, which focuses on derivatives and generates about 15 percent of the group’s profit, may be worth about $5 billion, analysts estimated. The public stock offering will give investors a chance to benefit from the explosive growth of the derivatives market, said Geoff Miller, an analyst at Bridgewell Securities in London. (emphasis added

Man Group bid $282 Million for Refco. The purchase price might have been less depending on how many customers left Refco.

Refco Man Group Mover Mike

Update:

MAP 6.2 2007/04/02 23:20:23 -8.494 157.352 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

MAP 6.2 2007/04/02 12:02:23 -8.539 157.548 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

MAP 6.0 2007/04/02 10:49:15 -7.197 156.192 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

Update:

MAP 6.4 2007/04/01 21:11:34 -7.441 155.774 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

MAP 6.7 2007/04/01 20:47:32 -7.133 155.661 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

MAP 8.1 2007/04/01 20:39:56 -8.453 156.957 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS

Update: