Mover Mike

Oregon State will break the trend and win the Civil War at Oregon!

In 2007 I predict Gold will trade as high as $850. It closed on Friday, Dec. 29th, 2006 at $636.

In 2007 the USD index will trade at a new all time low of 78. It closed 2006 at 83.43.

Poor predictions:

I predict Oil will trade no higher than $70. It closed on Friday, Dec. 29th, 2006 at $61.05.

I will stick to my 2006 prediction of DJIA 9,000.

War will flair between Iran and the U.S.

There will be a large earthquake on the West Coast of U.S. (above 5.9).

Here are the largest in the U.S. in 2007:

# 2007 12 19 - Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska - M 7.2
# 2007 10 31 - San Francisco Bay Area, California - M 5.4
# 2007 08 15 - Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska - M 6.5
# 2007 08 14 - Island of Hawaii, Hawaii - M 5.4
# 2007 08 02 - Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska - M 6.7
# 2007 05 09 - Offshore Northern California - M 5.2
# 2007 05 08 - Western Montana - M 4.5

It seems the poor ones outnumber the good ones. Not to be deterred, it's time to venture out on to limb's end and predict away for 2008:

1. Oregon State will win its third in a row baseball championship.

2. Oregon State will win the civil war again.

3. Gold will hit $1,000 per ounce and silver will hit $20 per ounce.

4. The USD will fall from 77 to 68.

5. Oil will trade at $125.

6. Politics remains the wild card in this election year. Not only do I predict the party's nominees, but the next president. The odds on favorite has to be Clinton, unless some outside event happens to shake confidence in her ability to lead. On the Republican side, that same event could give us Giuliani, but I'm going with either Fred Thompson or Ron Paul.

7. The Republicans will run the country in 2009.

8. Best Picture for 2007 will be Sweeney Todd.

9. The economy will be in a recession by the end of 2008.

10. The DJIA will trade as low as 11,400.

11. The Middle East war will involve more countries.

12. There will be a large earthquake on the West Coast of U.S. (above 5.9).

2008 Predictions Oregon State Gold Silver Oil Sen. Hillary Clinton Giuliani Fred Thompson Ron Paul/a>

The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission said Wednesday that employers could reduce or eliminate health benefits for retirees when they turn 65 and become eligible for Medicare.

The policy, set forth in a new regulation, allows employers to establish two classes of retirees, with more comprehensive benefits for those under 65 and more limited benefits — or none at all — for those older.

On the other hand, if employers are allowed to discriminate between those over 65 and those under, it would seem to give greater security to older workers and may even make older workers more attractive.

In another landmark deal, I missed the GM/Union deal that took place in September. GM has been at a $25 per hour cost disadvantage with the Japanese car manufacturers, because of health care benefits for retired workers. The Daily Independent wrote that General Motors Corp. won its struggle to unload $51 billion in retiree health costs and improve competitiveness in the latest round of contract talks with the United Auto Workers.

Deutsche Bank auto analyst Rod Lache said the agreement to move retiree health care costs off GM's books could eventually reduce the labor cost gap by $18 an hour. GM would pay about 70 percent of its obligation, or nearly $36 billion, into the trust, called a Voluntary Employees Beneficiary Association, or VEBA

Health Benefits for Retirees General Motors Corp. (GM) Mover Mike

Mrs. Benazir Bhutto, who the U.S. encouraged to come back to Pakistan from exile, was assassinated first by gunfire then apparently the gunman blew himself up killing at least 20 people.

Death begets death.

Nawaz Sharif, another former premier and leader of a rival opposition party, rushed to the hospital and addressed the crowd.

“Benazir Bhutto was also my sister, and I will be with you to take the revenge for her death,” he said. “Don’t feel alone. I am with you. We will take the revenge on the rulers."

Benazir Bhutto President Pervez Musharraf pakistan

Update:

I already told you that we bought a 42-inch LCD flat screen for $1199 at Video Only. In March, Consumer's Report rated the brand we bought, JVC, as the best value, their number 1 pick, and it was priced then at $2700.

The week before Christmas, Bev found a Calvin Klein trench coat at Macys, regularly $300 for $150. It was suggested that she put the coat on hold because the next day it might be cheaper. She did and the next day when she returned, she bought it for $65.

On Christmas eve, she and I like to go downtown and shop just for the two of us, maybe even sit on Santa's lap. I suggested we look at Nine West in Pioneer Place. I knew she was looking for some patent leather boots. We found two pair, one pair that came almost to the knee was $175 marked down to $99 and the other came up over the ankle, was priced at $40. The saleswoman said if we bought both we would get 30% off. I figured quickly that 30% is about the price of the over the ankle shoe. We bought both and the total was about $97. They basically paid us $3 to take the second pair off their hands.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis reports today that Target is reporting disappointing Christmas sales.

Target Corp (TGT) warned on Monday that its December same-store sales were below expectations and said it now expects sales at stores open at least a year in the range of down 1 percent to up 1 percent, adjusted for a calendar shift.

Target Corp (TGT) Christmas Sales Mover Mike

Merry Christmas to the readers of Mover Mike.

May you love others as you would be loved.

Pray for all those who protect us, the firemen and women, the cops, our border patrols and our brave soldiers everywhere.

It has a range between charges of 120 miles, goes up to 90 MPH, and gets three hundred miles per gallon.

Come on Detroit. is it really going to take you to 2020 to average 35 miles per gallon.

Aptera Mover Mike

At a meeting earlier this month, Chief Executive Robert Nardelli was asked, 'Are we bankrupt?'" Mr. Nardelli said at the meeting. "Technically, no. Operationally, yes. The only thing that keeps us from going into bankruptcy is the $10 billion investors entrusted us with."

What's even more shocking, Nardelli drove a different car home each day and then met with the engineers about the flaws like cheap plastic interiors and noisy rides.

Or, He learned that Chrysler badly lags behind on fuel-saving technologies and will have to spend billions to catch up.

Or, Mr. Nardelli was irritated to discover that a program designed to save $250 million to $300 million in parts and other costs was actually saving only $1 million because of rising commodity prices, people familiar with the matter said.

I am rooting for Mr. Nardelli. I have owned a lot of cars in my life, but I have never owned a Chrysler. My father came close when I was living at home. We looked seriously at a red Plymouth with a faux spare tire on the trunk. But in the end, bought a Ford.

I would like to see America continue to manufacture cars, but I think Chrysler, with its many near financial misses is near the end of its string.

This past week, I have posted about Smart, ZENN, Zap-X and MiniC.A.T cars. Why aren't GM, Ford and Chrysler bringing these to marke?

Next he's going to tell us that Jesus, the son of God, did not die on the cross for our sins and the resurrection is a legend, too?

The Archbishop of Canterbury is likely to piss the Big Guy off!

Confidence in top bond insurer MBIA Inc. plummeted Thursday after the guarantor disclosed on its Web site that it had $8.1 billion in exposure to complex and risky securities backed by home loans.

MBIA (MBI) CDOs Mover Mike

...they decided to take this $7.8 billion writedown instead of the estimated $3.7 billion writedown detailed on Nov. 7. “Virtually all writedowns were the result of trading by a single desk in our mortgages business.

Mr. Kelleher details the subprime trading position that caused the losses, saying the firm elected to short the lowest-rated tranche of subprime to the tune of $2 billion, but decided to “cover the cost of negative carry by going long the $14 billion super-senior tranche.” As the value of these positions declined, the company ended losing a ton.

The vehicle has a top speed of 68 miles per hour, and a range of 125 to 185 miles and runs on compressed air.

Do you remember what Tim Geithnner said back on March 1st, 2006?

Timothy F. Geithner is the president of the Fed Bank of New York and he warned that the U.S. financial system is evolving faster than the ability of investors, lenders and regulators to evaluate and manage the risks involved.

The rapid growth in complex new investment instruments and recent changes in market structure have helped make the nation's financial system more flexible and resilient...But, "there are aspects of the latest changes in financial innovation that could increase systemic risk" -- the danger that the losses of a few investors could set off a chain reaction of events that disrupts the broader financial system, as did the near-collapse of a heavily leveraged hedge fund in 1998.

Business Week writes that analysts listen to what Geithner says because ...the bank he runs is the most powerful of the Fed system's 12 regional banks. Moreover, Geithner is a close adviser to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Geithner spoke at a conference sponsored jointly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton University.

The New York Fed chief said central bankers are concerned about a snowball of fear in the markets, or what he called "the risk of an adverse, self-reinforcing dynamic in which concerns about overall liquidity magnify concerns about credit problems." (my emphasis)

Pershing says like all good things this one came to an end and when the returns were compressed by competition. So bond insurance companies bagan to write insurance on Utilities, Hospitals, Toll Roads, etc. where credit profile was based on meeting projections rather than tax-payer support. These munis were marketed as AAA, but I told my clients to avoid them, if they couldn't stand on their own as AAA or AAs.

As late as 1990, 100% of the insurance was involved with public finance issues. Pershing says that by 2006, due once again to compressed returns, 32% of the insurance was used to GUARANTEE Structured Finance. Structured Finance transactions at MBIA and AMBAC now account for 66% and 55%, respectively, of their insurance transactions. Pershing says that the annual premium as a percent of the bond insurers exposure was insufficient at 18 bps and 21 bps, respectively. In order to reach 12% ROE, the insurers needed to use extreme leverage of near 150 to 1.

The report singles out MBIA and AMBAC holding companies as insufficiently capitalized and the underlying business is going south fast. Pershing expects the holding companies will be unable to raise sufficient capital and face bankruptcy!

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis posted AMBAC Blows It...Again!

AMBAC MBIA Structured Finance

Bond Insurers Mover Mike

Global food prices were under further pressure on Monday as benchmark prices for cereals at much higher levels came into operation, making it almost inevitable that a second wave of food price inflation will hit the world’s leading economies.

In Chicago wheat and rice prices for delivery in March 2008 have jumped to an all-time record, soyabean prices are at a 34-year high and corn prices at an 11-year peak.

The global commodities boom that has lifted prices of everything from gasoline to gold is now elevating rice -- a staple food for half of the world -- to its highest level in nearly 20 years.

Rice's surge has complex consequences for the global economy. Used in everything from sushi to burritos to Rice Krispies, the ubiquitous grain is suffering poor harvests and tight supplies in some of the biggest rice-exporting and rice-consuming nations, just as demand grows in places like India and the Philippines.

The Guardian in November, 2007 reported

Empty shelves in Caracas. Food riots in West Bengal and Mexico. Warnings of hunger in Jamaica, Nepal, the Philippines and sub-Saharan Africa. Soaring prices for basic foods are beginning to lead to political instability, with governments being forced to step in to artificially control the cost of bread, maize, rice and dairy products. (emphasis added)

Food Inflation Food Shortages Mover Mike

Brian's solution was to buy the ZENN, built in France and re-engineered in Canada.

Reading the comments to the YouTube, I became aware of other alternatives in the wings, the ZAP-X for example:

Where are the American auto companies? Oil is almost $100 a barrel and gasoline is $3.00 at the pump. We could be looking at $4.00 gasoline in May. These two examples of electric cars are perfect for the commuter, the mom-taxi, and the short trips around town. I guess the Americam auto companies are going to cede this market, too.

ZENN EZAP-X Electric Cars

Yachats Earthquake Mover Mike

I read that South Africa is going ahead with its development of PBMRs

The South African government has set up a company, Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (Pty) Ltd, to develop new nuclear power technology and plans to spend some 1 trillion yen over the next 20 years to build 24 small installations...

World energy requirements are escalating at an unprecedented rate. It has taken 2 000 years for the population of the world to grow from 250 million to six billion people. By the middle of this century, it will reach 10 billion. This rapid increase in world population, with a simultaneous increase in standard of living, especially in the developing world, will cause world energy requirements to triple over the next half century.

At this exponential increase in the rate of energy consumption – in a world that is relying on fossil fuels for 80% of its energy requirements – it is questionable whether economic oil and gas supplies will last beyond the latter part of this century. Price increases, security of supply concerns and related commercial risks will be the fruits of the burgeoning global population and create unforeseen challenges. Climate change and tertiary effects of greenhouse gases will challenge human ingenuity

Today it is trading around $90, and the recent high was $135. Money Week in September, 2007 wrote

By 2050, scientists estimate the world will need about 900 more nuclear power plants to keep up with growing energy requirements.

As a result, the undeniable reality is that demand for uranium is outstripping supply. In 2005...

• Supply from mines was 102.5 million pounds
• Demand was 171 million pounds
• The gap was 68.5 million pounds.

Oil was trading at $50 per barrel (currently $92)
Natural Gas was trading at $6.20 (currently about $7)
and Gold was trading at $416 (currently $795)

Reuters UK wrote in September of 2007,

Record high coal prices and tight supply are piling the pressure on electricity generators already hit by soaring oil markets and high gas prices, industry players say.

Coal fuels about 40 pct of global power generation. Physical coal prices for delivery into Europe have risen by over 50 percent this year.

Pebble Bed Modular Reactors (PBMR) India and China South Africa

nuclear power Uranium Mover Mike

Update:

One question is what exactly Washington policy makers should be trying to prevent. Does every homeowner facing foreclosure deserve help, or just some of them -- and how should the deserving be identified? At what point do banks' problems raising funds become a public concern?

The plan recently announced by the mortgage industry, with Bush administration support, could freeze interest rates on hundreds of thousands of troubled subprime mortgages that are set for rate increases over the next two years. But it won't help everyone. Borrowers can't have defaulted already. Some critics say the plan amounts to a rescue for the irresponsible, while others, particularly Democrats, say it won't fend off foreclosure for enough people. (Emphasis added)

On the other hand if my neighbor bought the house next door with zero down and a 1% mortgage, that is due to rise to current levels, and can't pay the mortgage at the higher rate, is it fair to have his rate frozen at this level. I was prudent and didn't use my equity to buy a second home at inflated prices. Doesn't a freeze reward stupidity or greed or lack of risk control? Shouldn't people who make mistakes be accountable?

Sometimes, as in the forest fire fighting business, our past policies of fire prevention have created catastrophic fires that can't be put out easily. So too in our economy. We have had a policy of no recessions. If your policy is recession prevention then little bankruptcies, small corrections never take place. Bubbles get created. This time we have created a financial mess that may be unstoppable. We may have no recourse, but the cleansing fire. And like those who lost their homes, we will rebuild, stronger, smarter and with a different currency.

FED Mortgages Mover Mike

Americans who are prepared to choose someone with less experience, are prepared to "roll the dice" about the future of America.

...the notion that experience led the politicians to sanction the Iraq War is "absurd."

(Though Mr. Obama, the junior senator from Illinois, was a vocal critic of the Iraq war during his time as a state legislator and as a Senate candidate in 2004, the level of his criticism lowered when he arrived in Washington. In his first year in the Senate, he delivered one speech on Iraq, calling for a phased withdrawal by the end of 2006. But last November, Mr. Obama revised that time frame, saying the drawdown should begin in four to six months. Legislation he introduced late last month calls for redeployment to begin no later than May 1, with a goal of removing all combat brigades in Iraq by March 31, 2008.)

Howard Fineman writes that Hillary is on the brink of losing the first four primaries.

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann criticize the campaign strategy as an enormous mistake of claiming Hillary has experience:

The decision that Hillary should run as the candidate of experience was an enormous blunder. In a Democratic electorate that's in the party precisely because it so intensely dislikes things as they are and wants change, experience is the wrong virtue to stress.

Josh Kardon, U.S. (Sen.) Ron Wyden's chief of staff, is helping run Clinton's Oregon campaign. Kardon was a key player in Kulongoski's re-election effort last year.

Sen. Hillary Clinton Sen. Barack Obama Mover Mike

Update:

Maupin Earthquake Mover Mike

After (51-year old) Gines hit Richey, he initially "pulled over but became scared, perhaps because of his legal status," then fled the scene and tried to cover up the damage to his van, said prosecutor Squire Bozorth.

Crash investigators determined that Gines was not speeding and would not have been able to see Richey, who was hidden by the silhouette of a TriMet bus south of the Boardman Avenue intersection, until his van was bearing down on her.

Mary Denise Richey Rafael Avelino Gines Mover Mike

Update:

74.3% of the area of Georgia is considered in drought from severe to exceptional with almost half of all land area considered exceptionally dry. The NWS sees little hope soon

90 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY...NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

Scientists have discovered what they think may be another reason why Greenland 's ice is melting: a thin spot in Earth's crust is enabling underground magma to heat the ice.

They have found at least one “hotspot” in the northeast corner of Greenland -- just below a site where an ice stream was recently discovered.

Greenland Hotspot Mover Mike

What kind of example is it to have some say he cheated his way to the top?

Two years ago in the Little League World Series, I was struck by the large number of kids who said #5 Albert Pujols was the kids hero; the one they would most want to be like. I didn't know Pujols. I am sure glad his name is not on the list.

He looks like a good NE Liberal. He's a Former State Legislator; he will focus on healthcare and affordable housing for seniors; he served on the Northwest Oregon Labor Council Board.

Fahey confirmed that he is holding a campaign committee meeting this evening with such supporters as Hank Miggins, Fahey's legislative assistant in Salem, and Robert Williams, who serves on the TriMet board.

He does have business experience. He founded and ran his own mortgage consulting business, Discover Mortgage, from 1999 to June of this year.

He likely will face Maria "M. Ro" Rojo de Steffey.

...something weird is going on here. Given the broad belief that the subprime crisis is only the beginning of a general financial crisis, and that the economy will go into recession, we would have expected major market declines by now.

When we add in surging oil and commodity prices, we would have expected all hell to break loose in these markets.

It is the only explanation for what we are seeing. The markets should be selling off like crazy, given the financial problems. They are not. They keep bouncing back, no matter how hard they are driven down. That money is not coming from the financial institutions and hedge funds that got ripped on mortgages. But it is coming from somewhere. We think that somewhere is the land of $90-per-barrel crude and really cheap toys.

Friedman says his is the only explanation. I am beginning to wonder if there could be another explanation. Some group that would like you to be calm, think there is no problem, none at all.

John Mauldin's Outside the Box George Friedman Mover Mike

Hamas Earthquake Al-Aqsa Mosque

"The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 3.2 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.

Tuesday, investor and renowned oil man, T. Boone Pickens said

Oil prices will hit $100 a barrel before dipping to $80, and should pierce the triple-digit threshold within the next six months

Jesse's Café Américain quotes John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics saying that over the last 20 years or so

changes in methodologies have been implemented in reporting the key statistics, with the effect that economic statistics seem stronger than real growth, and inflation numbers tend to be weaker than reality, enough so that GDP (Growth Domestic Product) is overstated by three percent; the unemployment rate is really up around 12 percent as most people would look at it, and the inflation rate is now topping 11 percent."

Central banks have been so focused on force-feeding financial markets with cash that they've overlooked a brewing inflation crisis, said Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, on Wednesday.

PPI T. Boone Pickens Shadow Government Statistics

James Grant Mover Mike

That closed Columbia fund was part of the acquisition of formerly Portland based Columbia Funds, which moved through several geographical iterations before landing with Bank of America a year or so ago. The fund now closed was just a trickle at the time Columbia was unloaded.

My source writes

Contrary to some of the stories, they (Money Market funds) are allowed to invest in bad stuff up to a certain percentage. In particular, some tax free money market funds are vulnerable, because local governments are flirting with default on paying back borrowed money.

Only some investors will be able to get their cash out. Several of the fund's biggest investors are being redeemed "in kind" — that is, they have been given their share of the underlying securities, rather than a cash payment. Smaller shareholders can cash out at the fund's share price, which is currently 99.4 cents on the dollar. The fund required a minimum investment of $25 million.

A report yesterday by Standard & Poor's found that about 30 U.S.-oriented enhanced cash funds rated by S&P had lost a total of $20 billion, or 25%, of their assets, in the third quarter. In one of the more dramatic instances, one fund (which S&P declined to identify) saw its assets under management shrink by 98%, or $2.5 billion.

Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio Bank of America Mover Mike

Update:

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent.

Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks. Today’s action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time. Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

FED federal funds Mover Mike

Taylor Mali Teachers Mover Mike

The dollar pegs force the region to shadow U.S. interest rates. Gulf central banks are cutting rates in tandem with the U.S. Federal Reserve to prevent currency appreciation, ignoring inflation at home which is running at its highest this decade.

With more Fed cuts expected and the dollar hitting record lows on global markets, investors expect the Gulf states to eventually give up on their pegs and allow their currencies to appreciate.

Update:

Update:

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) will liquidate a $12 billion cash fund for wealthy clients and institutions, the largest investment of its type to close because of losses tied to the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market.

The fund, Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio, was sold as an alternative to money-market funds, offering a higher yield by taking more risk. It was the biggest so-called enhanced cash fund, with $33 billion in assets two weeks ago before an investor pulled more than $20 billion...

Bank of America sent a letter saying that the company will no longer take subscriptions or redemptions as a ``direct result'' of the subprime-mortgage credit crisis, CNBC reported, citing the people.

Now, there's a fly in the ointment, so to speak. Bloomberg has an article by Liz Capo McCormick and Sandra Hernandez entitled Price Measure Says Rate Can't Fall as Traders Expect. In it the authors say

Brian Sack head of monetary and financial market analysis at the Fed in 2003 and 2004, uses a chart that plots forward rates measuring investor expectations for inflation in five years. The gauge is so accurate that Sack and his colleagues persuaded the central bank to use it to help set policy. The chart is autographed by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Right now, it shows current Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may have less room to lower borrowing costs than investors in Treasuries anticipate, potentially setting bondholders up for a fall. The expected inflation rate, which Sack says replicates what Fed officials use, reached 2.91 percent last week, the highest since 2004, when the central bank began the first of an unprecedented 17 rate increases.

Rising rates normally would help the dollar, but not if foreigners think our economy is going in the tank.

The FED has to inflate, there is no other option.

Brian Sack FED USD

(Rudy) Giuliani, who appeared on NBC's "Meet the Press," said in response to a question that he did not believe homosexuality was aberrant.

"The way somebody leads their life isn't sinful. It's the acts," said Giuliani, who supports gay rights and lived with an openly gay couple after separating from his second wife while mayor. "It's the various acts that people perform that are sinful, not the orientation that they have."

Is this what the Republican party has come to. Some elite telling us what we can do in our bedrooms?

Let me list some acts by the elites that I find repugnant: Marv Albert biting his partner's back while having intercourse. How about Dick Morris and his prostitute or mistress engaged in toe sucking? How about Bill Clinton biting the lower lip of his victim so she can't get away while raping her? How about executives that force underlings into sexual situations lest they will lose their jobs?

Rudy Giuliani homesexuals Mover Mike

Bob down the street has decorated his home's ridge line with green and red lights and then he has hung a wreath on his front porch lighted with LEDs. The brightness and sharpness of the light is head turning.

A light-emitting diode (LED) is a semiconductor diode that emits incoherent narrow-spectrum light when electrically biased in the forward direction of the p-side, or anode, to the n-side, or cathode junction. This effect is a form of electroluminescence. In other words, when the electric current moves from the p side to the n-side, it throws off protons or light and the light is generally red, green or blue.

I am thinking about getting a faux Christmas tree for the first time for home. Generally, we buy the fresh green tree, take a couple of days to decorate, fight the dryness through the season, worry about it catching fire as it dries out, deal with the needles and then take off the ornaments and lights and haul it outside. This year we have less time than usual. Beverly said if you want a tree, either you will have to decorate it or we can buy a faux tree with LED lights already on it.

I was monitoring the comments to Michael Shedlock's post about Commercial Real Estate Shoe Is Falling. In the comment section maxed_out answered the question, "Is there any sector that might be the driving force out of recession few years from now?"

i (sic) would argue that so-called "green tech" is that industry. the green-tech industry is growing exponentially, with incredible need for high-skilled technical labor. FirstSolar and SunTech will both be producing solar panels that can compete with unsibsidized (sic) retail electricity by 2012 (FirstSolar will probably get there by 2010). many other solar companies will be following close behind. Cree, is producing LED lights that are more efficient than CFLs and will be cheaper to produce (with more than 2x's the efficiency) by 2011 or so.

Cree’s R&D demonstrations generally have been commercialized within 12 to 24 months." Isn't it amazing. Without mandates and the use of force by our government, market forces move us in the direction of energy savings and new products that last longer than the old ones they replace.

Gotta' go and get that tree!

LEDs CREE Mover Mike

Plato emphasized four virtues in particular, which were later called cardinal virtues: wisdom, courage, temperance and justice. Other important virtues are fortitude, generosity, self-respect, good temper, and sincerity.

How many are appalled at the injustice of the Supreme Court's eminent domain decision that does not respect the sanctity of private property. How many of us are appalled when we read about self-important government officials or CEOs in business who have raging tempers. How many of us are sickened at the enormous appetites for drugs, booze, sex and power that permeate our people's lives.

Romney says

"We separate church and state affairs in this country, and for good reason. No religion should dictate to the state nor should the state interfere with the free practice of religion. But in recent years, the notion of the separation of church and state has been taken by some well beyond its original meaning. They seek to remove from the public domain any acknowledgment of God. Religion is seen as merely a private affair with no place in public life. It is as if they are intent on establishing a new religion in America – the religion of secularism..."

Gov. Romney Moral+Relativism Mover Mike

I said, "Dad why don't I come over tomorrow and climb the ladders for you and clean out the gutter? You can hold the ladder, Dad." Tomorrow was going to be a wet day, so he suggested I come when the rain stops. I went over to his house Saturday morning.

I already see him when I look in the mirror. I see the salt and pepper hair, thinning on top. When I hold the newspaper, I see his thumbs. I experience some of the same aches in hands and joints that he has. So, it was a little unnerving to see two old twins, separated by 23 years, haul the 20-foot ladder to the back yard.

Francis Landfair Mover Mike

CNN Money reports,

Consumer electronics retailer CompUSA said Friday it will close its stores after the holidays following sale of the company to an affiliate of Gordon Brothers Group, a restructuring firm.

the company went private in 2000. The chain went through several CEOs and tried different turnaround strategies, such as a move this year to focus on core customers such as gadget users and small-business owners.

CompUSA closed more than half its stores this spring and got a cash infusion of $440 million to restructure.

CompUSA Consumer electronics retailer Mover Mike

In a 1992 survey:

When asked about AIDS research in 1992, Huckabee complained that AIDS research received an unfair share of federal dollars when compared to cancer, diabetes and heart disease.

"I feel homosexuality is an aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle, and we now know it can pose a dangerous public health risk."

Since becoming a presidential candidate this year, Huckabee has supported increased federal funding for AIDS research through the National Institutes of Health.

"My administration will be the first to have an overarching strategy for dealing with HIV and AIDS here in the United States, with a partnership between the public and private sectors that will provide necessary financing and a realistic path toward our goals,"

What people do in the privacy of their own lives as adults is their business," Huckabee said. "If they bring it into the public square and ask me as a taxpayer to support it or to endorse it, then it becomes a matter of public discussion and discourse."

Mike Huckabee AIDS Mover Mike

Are you a Libertarian? Find Out.

BTW, my nephew is headed in the right direction. Are we looking at a future Aaron Russo?

The LPO's State Committee voted to appoint Joseph Cornwell as Executive Director during its December 1 Meeting. The appointment is for the period from December 1 to December 29, 2007. Joseph will be working part-time at the LPO office Monday-Friday, helping in a variety of support roles. You may contact him at exec.dir at lporegon dot org.

Ron Paul Terry Krohn Mover Mike

Well, maybe, Outlaw reads Mover Mike, because the next game, Outlaw steps up and wins the game at Memphis. He hits the game winner as the clock expires. Then last night Portland dismantled Miami and there on page E7 is Travis Outlaw "dunking for two of his 20 points." in 29 minutes.

Welcome back, big guy, make us proud.

Travis Outlaw Portland Trailblazers Mover Mike

map 2.6 2007/12/06 16:14:53 46.423N 120.138W 0.2 10 km ( 6 mi) NNE of Granger, WA

map 2.1 2007/12/06 11:44:55 46.126N 119.018W 0.0 6 km ( 4 mi) SSE of Finley, WA

map 2.2 2007/12/06 04:24:46 43.779N 118.668W 5.3 38 km (24 mi) NE of Burns, OR

map 1.4 2007/12/05 22:34:58 47.748N 120.165W 0.6 9 km ( 5 mi) NNE of Entiat, WA

map 1.3 2007/12/05 18:16:53 47.745N 120.156W 3.7 9 km ( 5 mi) NNE of Entiat, WA

Entiat Earthquake Mover Mike

Sofa Express Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection today in the Middle District of Tennessee in Nashville.

Klaussner is the largest unsecured creditor in the filing and is owed $18.05 million. Spring Air is the second largest and is owed $334,994.

[...]

The retailer, doing business as Sofa Express and More, ranked 40th on this year’s Furniture/Today Top 100 ranking of U.S. furniture stores based on estimated furniture, bedding and accessories sales of $206.9 million in 2006. Estimated total revenues were $213.9 million.

85%How Addicted to Blogging Are You?

The NIE is based on is based on "a single, unvetted source who provided information to a foreign intelligence service and has not been interviewed directly by the United States."

Newsmax sources in Tehran believe that Washington has fallen for “a deliberate disinformation campaign” cooked up by the Revolutionary Guards, who laundered fake information and fed it to the United States through Revolutionary Guards intelligence officers posing as senior diplomats in Europe.

After reading the NIE, I posted this comment

Here's what we're are left with, Iran stopped their nuclear weapons program in 2003, unless they restarted it. We're pretty darn sure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, unless they got one from outside the country. If Iran wants to have its own nuclear weapons, they would have to produce HEU, which they are technologically capable of, and we know that they are installing centrifuges. We think late 2009 is the earliest they could have a nuclear weapon, but the Iranians are sneaky little devils and are capable of subterfuge. The big reason we think they stopped in 2003 is our program of strength and international pressure is working.

Ken Timmerman NIE Iran

(Sen. Christopher) Dodd, who also is a contender for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, said he was concerned about issues raised in a New York Times column on Sunday, December 2, about the activities of Goldman Sachs in reportedly selling collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) while Paulson led the Wall Street firm.|

The article, by columnist Ben Stein, said Goldman also was selling the securities short. It said a Goldman Sachs spokesman told the newspaper it "routinely shorts the securities it underwrites and said that this is disclosed."

Last week in Boston, while attending Bioneers by the Bay, I heard that one of the speakers for our event, an environmentalist named Gunter Pauli, was going to miss the time of his scheduled speech; he had been physically taken OFF THE PLANE by TSA agents and had to take a much later flight. More chillingly, the camerawoman doing my interview said that another well-known environmental writer found that his girlfriend was effectively `disappeared' for three days as she sought to enter the US from Canada. Lisa Fithian, an anti-globalization activist, was denied entry across the Canadian border in 2001 and was offered the choice of turning back or being arrested.

Fithian is a legendary organizer who operates in the world of anti-globalism anarchists, antiwar protesters, and union activists; an advocate of aggressive "direct action" demonstrations, she protested the first Gulf war, played an important role in the violent shutdown of Seattle during the 1999 World Trade Organization meeting, was a key planner in protests at the Republican and Democratic national conventions in 2000 and 2004, and organized demonstrations at trade meetings in Washington, D.C., Prague, and Genoa.

Lisa Fithian Naomi Wolf Mover Mike

OSU finished higher than both Oregon and UCLA, yet both get to play BCS ranked teams. I think the bowl officials got confused! Go Beavers!

Oregon State Bowl Games Mover Mike

Update:

Update:

You can see all three interviews of him in October at CNBC

Julian Robertson Economy Mover Mike

U.S. Bankruptcy Court here has approved the sale of Levitz Furniture assets to the highest bidder at last week’s auction, clearing the way for liquidation and the end of the Levitz stores, an attorney representing the unsecured creditors committee confirmed.

It also sets up Raymour & Flanigan’s big push into the New York market, as the Top 100 retailer participated in the bid and plans to take as many as 18 Levitz store leases in the metro area.

Ashley also took part in the bid, and some Levitz stores on the West Coast will go to Ashley Furniture HomeStores

Levitz Raymour & Flanigan’s Ashley Furniture HomeStores

Then under Quality it lists:

Doesn't it stand to reason that as Moody's and S&P and Fitch lowered ratings, this commercial paper would not be in compliance and be sold. But how did the advisors know to sell before the downgrades?

Update:

OSTF ABCP Mover Mike

From the Discovery Channel, this startling view of a rupture in the floor of the ocean, a rift, off the coast of Mexico.

Putting together more than 50,000 sea floor images, along with 10 exploratory dives with the Alvin submarine, an unprecedented map has been pieced together showing 22 million cubic meters (13,670 cubic miles) of new lava coming out of the East Pacific Rise -- a seafloor spreading center off the Pacific coast of Mexico.

The area covered by the recent eruption is equivalent to metropolitan Oklahoma City, or nearly half of Manhattan. The discovery that an eruption was underway, however, was sort of an accident.

East Pacific Rise Undersea Eruption Mover Mike

BOTTOM LINE: The hedge of 57,000 ounces to make a bank safe on a $3 Million loan has gone against EURO (345 X 57 000) by $19,665,000!

”We continue to seek the appropriate method of reducing our gold hedge position, ..."We are closely examining the alternative methods to effectively de-hedge, or offset, a portion of our current hedge position with Macquarie. This hedge limits the benefit to EURO of rising gold prices in the immediate future and we are considering the alternative approaches to this with a goal of an immediate partial offset of 10,000 ounces. Ideally, we would want to be fully de-hedged by end 2008.

EURO Resources Gold Hedges Mover Mike

Back in April, Mr. Weiner told The Observer that of all the people working on Ms. Clinton’s campaign (including the senator and the former president), Ms. Abedin is “the coolest customer.” He went on to recall watching her expertly manage the Clintons, press and crowds during a politically tricky trip to Selma, Ala. “There were a hundred things that could have gone wrong…And Huma was sort of the all-purpose trouble-shooter of first response. It was a tour de force, and what was most impressive is that she maintained a level head the whole time,” he reportedly said. Also? She's a superhero: “In fact, I think there’s some dispute as to whether Huma’s actually human or not,” Mr. Weiner said.

Update: 1/27/08

HUMA Abedin, the traveling aide who is rarely out of Hillary Rodham Clinton's sight, has been seen with bachelor Rep. Anthony Weiner on the campaign trail.

Moody's Investors Service is preparing the biggest credit rating cuts since subprime mortgages contaminated the bond market, foreshadowing losses for investments that pay Florida teachers and money market funds.

[...]

School districts, towns and cities across Florida were denied access to their money after the State Board of Administration halted withdrawals from the Local Government Investment Pool on Nov. 29 to stem a run on the fund, which had $2 billion in SIVs and other debt tainted by the subprime collapse, state records show.

(The Pool) is an open-ended, no-load diversified portfolio offered to eligible participants, including any municipality, subdivision, or public corporation of the state who by law is made the custodian of, or has control of, any public funds. State agency participants are considered internal involuntary participants, because state law requires state agencies to deposit all funds with depositories qualified by the Office of the State Treasurer (Treasury).

Michael Shedlock reports that a Freeze Is On In Florida and Maine, Maine Treasurer Lemoine Criticizes Merrill for Subprime Bet, and in Montana, Run on a Montana Fund and King County Disaster For Public School Funds

King County finance director Ken Guy says he thought the fund was making a safe investment when it bought $53.5 million in commercial paper of an SIV-lite called Mainsail II in July. Mainsail failed to make payments to investors, including King County, on Oct. 4.

After checking back into OSTF, I checked on the biggest fund in Oregon, PERS. Now PERs literature as far as I can tell only wants to talk about performance. You can pull up an Excel file showing monthly breakdowns of assets, and as of October, 2007 had 27% or $17.25 Billion in fixed assets. I cannot find a listing of the assets. There is an PERS annual report published online, but that is dated for 2005.

Fixed assets then, in 2005, were $13.55 Billion and managed by

Wellington Management Company $ 2,496,515;
Western Asset Management 2,588,098;
Alliance Capital Management 2,493,132;
BlackRock 2,632,385;
Fidelity Investment Management 2,519,150; and
BGI U.S. Debt Index Fund

Guess what, in the story quoted at the top we find that

Baltimore-based brokerage firm Legg Mason Inc. said two money funds run by its Western Asset Management Co. unit own debt of Orion, representing 1 percent of the assets in the funds. Montana's short-term investment pool, which suffered more than $250 million of withdrawals last week because of its SIV holdings, had $50 million of Orion debt.

Alliance Capital Management LP was forced to pay $600 million to settle state and federal charges of improper mutual fund trading last December.

A significant step in this ongoing effort was the 2006 merger with Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (MLIM).

Come on Mr Garnett are you trying to tell me that the Oregon IAC managed to step around all those traps?

At 1:45 I received this email fro Mt Garnett

I'm out of the office until Friday and don't have access to our website. Try a search on the home page.

Moody's Investors Service Florida teachers subprime collapse

ABCP Mainsail Western Asset Management

A new NIE by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting a previous intelligence report.

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.

We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons

We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence</