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Mover Mike

Mike is a retired stock broker, and now supports his wife's furniture business. He is her warehouseman, deluxer, and marketing guru. In addition, he writes poetry and finds abundance, health and joy in the world around him while pondering life's little mysteries

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Drum Beats For War?
From
Iran has taken command of its nuclear technology and could have an atomic bomb in a year, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz was quoted as saying Wednesday, citing Israeli intelligence. (emphasis added)
Iran, a year away from an Atomic Bomb, the candidates all agree, Iran must not be allowed that weapon. Both Clinton and Obama would consider and attack on Israel by Iran an attack on the U.S.. Both would massively retaliate. Many are speculating that something is up and the U.S. is readying its might for operation Stuff Iran!

Now I read the Putin of Russia is preparing for a "full scale invasion’ of the Georgian breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to begin upon the believed to be imminent attack upon Iran by the United States."

Meantime, the U.S. has dispatched another carrier group into the Persian Gulf:

During a visit to Mexico City, US defense secretary Robert Gates said April 29 that the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Gulf should be seen as a reminder of US military power in the region. He flatly denied the US was preparing the ground for military strikes against Iran. But as DEBKAfile and DEBKA-Net-Weekly have reported in the last ten days, the carrier’s arrival and additional US military steps have underscored the hardening of US rhetoric against Iran.
Never believe anything until it is (flatly) denied!
Long Bond Could Trade At 4% And Below!
I've told you that I use technical analysis to give me a general impression of a stock, bond or commodities. This afternoon I glanced at the $USB, the chart of the 30 year Treasury (see chart). It startled me to see that the daily $USB has fallen back to the 200-day moving average at 115.

Looking at the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO),

The Percentage Price Oscillator is found by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average and then dividing the result by the longer moving average.
it appears that the PPO is about to cross over reulting in a BUY signal. In January, 2008, the $USB went to the highest level since before 1999. Recently, the pullback from 122 to 115, looks like a correction to the main bull market. The chart looks like the rise is ready to resume.

What does all the mean? It means that Treasury Bonds are set to continue higher resulting in lower long yields. It means that interest rates are set to come down a lot! Bonds go up, yields go down.

The lows since since December, 2007 have been 4.26%, then 4.23% and lastly in March, 2008, at 4.17%. We are currently at 4.51%, just off from 4.61%. I could see the long bond trade at 4% and below!

BTW, the Two Year Treasury Yield ($UST2Y) looks like the rally is over. It could go back and test the 1.35% low set in March. It is currently at 2.29% The Ten Year Treasury Yield ($UST10Y) also looks like the rally is over . It could test the low yield of 3.34%. It currently is at 3.77%.

What does it all mean? It may mean the economy is weaker than we are being led to believe. It may mean there is a flight to safety. It may mean that the huge flows of capital directed at banks are finding their way into purchases of safe items rather than take a chance on loaning money.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Another Look At Long Bonds
  2. Long Bond Could Trade At 4% And Below!
Very Unusual
map 2.3 2008/04/30 06:27:44 45.121N 120.948W 17.3 12 km ( 7 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 2.3 2008/04/29 04:26:44 45.121N 120.939W 19.5 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Back to Back 2.3s!

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

The Magic Of Compound Interest

I was checking out some of the other blogs that have been invited to blog for the Forbes.com Business and Finance Blog Network and came across Two Pennies Earned and Amy L. Fontinelle's Eight Financial Tips For Young Adults

One of the tips. if you want to have a comfortable and prosperous life is:

5. Start saving for retirement now.

Fontinelle mentions compound interest. It is much easier to understand the magic if you see the power this hoary chart presents. I think it was developed by Richard Russell, who writes Dow Theory Letters many years ago.

As you can see, if you had invested, when you were 19, $2,000 each year in an IRA for only seven years ($14,000), you would have more money at retirement than if you had waited seven years to start. And, as a result of waiting, you would have had to invest 11 times as much to get near the same result.

That's a huge lesson to learn at 19!

Cascadia Subduction Zone Is The Cause!
My friend Robert Somerville calls my attention to an article in the NewScientistEnvironment that says the San Andreas fault is a victim. It's the Cascadia Subduction Zone's fault.
Chris Goldfinger and colleagues at Oregon State University, Corvallis, analysed sediment records from deep sea canyons that stretched back over the last three thousand years, looking for the disturbed strata that are the hallmarks of big earthquakes.
They found evidence that "...the massive Cascadia quakes – eight of which Goldfinger estimates exceeded magnitude 9.0 on the Richter scale – trigger events that top out around magnitude 7.9 along the San Andreas by stress transfer."

Their evidence also suggests that the Cascadia is 90 years overdue for a "big one".

Welcome Forbes' Readers

Welcome! Here's what you will find at Mover Mike: I was a stockbroker for almost 30 years so I post about The Economy, The Trade Deficit and the Dollar, Troubled Companies, Precious Metals, Gold, Inflation, and Government Statistics. I like to illustrate my points with charts and graphs

I also post about politics, geology, the global warming hoax, book reviews and current events.

I hope to keep you interested and coming back for your daily "Mover Mike" fix.

Oregon Earthquake???
Did we just experience an EQ at 3:53?

Monday, April 28, 2008

No Partial-Birth Lawsuits Shows Abortion Advocates Lied About Health Exception
April 18 marked the one-year anniversary of the Supreme Court's ruling in Gonzales v. Carhart, in which it rejected legal challenges to the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003.

While opponents of the ban claimed numerous lawsuits would be brought forth to challenge the Supreme Court's ruling, thus far no challenges have been filed.

Indeed!
Oregon Beach Snow
I don't recall seeing this much snow at the beach.


Snow made spectacular sights in the winter of 2007 (photo Tiffany Boothe, Seaside Aquarium)

The Beach Connection, covering 180 miles of Oregon coast from Astoria to Florence, has pictures of the beach snow and reports about the impact on tourism.

Maupin Quake
When I started following Maupin quakes, anything above a 2.0M was rare.

map 3.1 2008/04/28 00:39:07 45.129N 120.940W 18.8 12 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.4 2008/04/27 10:34:52 44.985N 121.186W 9.2 20 km (13 mi) SE of Pine Grove, OR

Update:

map 2.2 2008/04/28 19:38:14 45.627N 123.190W 58.8 6 km ( 4 mi) WNW of Banks, OR

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst
Our weekly vlog/poscast in illegal immigration and border security. In this weeks edition...

As our invaders warm up for next weeks amnesty march we thought we'd take a look at one of the darkest costs of modern immigration: slavery!

Mayday!

100% Preventable! Americans continue to pay the bloody price for open borders, when will the madness stop?

Download for your ipod here.

You can read the entire Mayday demands list here.  (I know it's hard to read on the screen, as you'll see it's quite lengthy!)

Click on image
If you'd like to sponsor a show contact us here.

This has been the Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst. The Blogs For Borders Blogroll is dedicated to American sovereignty, border security and a sane immigration policy.

If you’d like to join find out how right here.

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Connection, Reno and Long Valley???
So far, I've read no theories for the swarm taking place in and around Reno, NV. Some scientists are warning of something much bigger coming, because these don't appear to be earthquake and aftershocks. I note with these maps that the Reno swarm is not that far from the Mammoth Mountain quakes (or Long alley Caldera). Maybe 125 to 150 miles! Is there a connection? Long Valley appears to be relatively quiet for the moment.


Update:

I asked if there was a connection between Reno and Long Valley. Michael Hall brought this chart to my attention

Wikipedia defines Peak acceleration (%g) as

Peak ground acceleration (PGA) is a measure of earthquake acceleration. Unlike the Richter magnitude scale, it is not a measure of the total size of the earthquake, but rather how hard the earth shakes in a given geographic area.
It appears there is that connection!
Is A New Ice Age Coming?
Back in September of 2004 I posted about The Weather, It is a Changin' and referred to a book by Robert W. Felix entitled "Not By Fire But By Ice." I owned the book, but when I started to thumb through it, I didn't recall ever reading it.

The book refers to Felix's web site iceagenow.com . Climate Patrol.com has a video of Felix making a presentation in Coeur de Alain in March of 2007. This sure runs counter to Al Gore's claims:

Update:

Campgrounds Under Heavy Snow

From the AP in The Oregonian, Snow could slow campground openings.

Many campgrounds in eastern Washington and northern Idaho will be opening later than usual because of heavy snow and a cold spring...

Some sites may not open by Memorial Day, the traditional start of the heavy camping season and snowdrifts could block access to lookout towers well into July.

And they're still getting more snow. One ranger station had "12 feet of snow last week, four times the typical amount for this time of year."

Some scientists worry about the "albedo effect" The classic example of albedo effect is the snow-temperature feedback. If a normally clear area is snow covered, the area cools and the snow doesn't melt, the albedo increases, less sunlight is absorbed, and the temperature tends to decrease. The converse is true.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Snow Cover Greatest Since 1966!
Continuing the theme of the previous post, The National Post announced
Snow cover over North America and much of Siberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966.

[...]

China is surviving its most brutal winter in a century.

In just the first two weeks of February, Toronto received 70 cm of snow, smashing the record of 66.6 cm for the entire month set back in the pre-SUV, pre-Kyoto, pre-carbon footprint days of 1950.

Gilles Langis, a senior forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa, says the Arctic winter has been so severe the ice has not only recovered, it is actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than at this time last year.

The Calgary Herald has an article outlining a similar experience to Wallowa Lake: Record low water levels at Montreal Harbour, now with the heaviest snowpack in years, there are high hopes for the spring melt to raise water levels in the harbor and the Great Lakes. However, the worry is a cool spring stops melt and the snow just evaporates.
Wallowa Lake Worries, Still Ice Covered!

Wallowa Lake is a perfect morainal lake, which means it was formed by a glacier (about 9 million years ago). The lake is 5 miles long, and a mile wide, with a depth of 283'.

Wallowa Lake has a problem and the problem may have a negative effect on the community surrounding the lake and farmers dependent on the waters for irrigation. The problem: Wallowa Lake is frozen!

The condition of this glacial lake at a 4,300 feet elevation typifies something that worries farmers, ranchers and county officials across much of eastern Oregon: Snowpacks aren't melting, storage reservoirs aren't refilling, and chilly spring temperatures have delayed the growing season.
Many other lakes that should be opening for fishing have the same problem; "popular Diamond Lake in southern Oregon", and only a handful of lakes in central Oregon will be open.

In addition to the lakes staying frozen, the water content of the state snowpack is averaging 185% of normal for this time of year.

"It has been gaining; it hasn't been melting," (Jon Lea, a hydrologist with the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service) said of the snowpacks, which ordinarily would be sending millions of gallons of spring runoff frothing downstream into storage reservoirs.
We know the global warming wackos tell you that glaciers are melting everywhere and the big danger is that melting in Greenland and Antartica would raise sea levels. The Wallowas may be telling us that the trend is cooling not warming. Not only have we seen record snow levels in many parts of the U.S. and Canada, but the Nisqually glacier on Mt. Rainier is actually growing. If all the ice melt is taking place as the global warming fanatics tell us is happening, shouldn't we see the sea levels rise?

Grey Canada carried a chart showing sea levels for the last 24,000 years. It shows that sea levels started rising 22,000 years ago and plateaued 7,000 years ago. Glaciers stop growing, then melt and sea levels rise. Water vapor comes off the ocean, rises and makes snow, the snow packs build, the sea levels fall and we go into an ice age. The last ice age ended 11,500 years ago. IMO, Wallowa Lake and the heavy snowpacks are telling us that the next ice age has begun.

Friday, April 25, 2008

You Can Support The Ad!
Do you think this ad is racist?

Do you think it racist because it shoes a picture of Obama as a black man?
Did you know he was black before you saw this ad?
Do you care whether he is black or white?
Suppose the ad used William Ayers and quoted him saying he was sorry he didn't bomb more buildings as a Weatherman. Would that be wrong?

Rush Limbaugh, who has no love for the Republican Party's nominee, takes McCain to task for proudly presenting himself as a independent maverick, but wants the Republican party to toe the line. Rush says, "What's wrong with the rest of us being independent mavericks?" Rush challenges McCain to tell us what is racist about the ad.

Please click here to contribute and keep this ad on the air.

Wednesday, Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., in an interview with Bill Moyers, said his words were twisted taken out of context. If you are wondering, check out this piece by Brian Ross at ABC News on March 13, 2008. I think if my minister speaks like this, I am tacitly or explicitly agreeing with him, if I continue to sit in his church. It certainly seemed to rub off on Mrs. Obama when she finally was proud of America referring to her husband running for president. How can it not have rubbed off on Sen. Obama? What is the difference with this hate speech and the hate speech that goes on in the Muslim mosques around the world?

Update:

Update:

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Oregon Quakes
We last checked in on Maupin Quakes on April 18th. The Quakes epicenter continues to be 8 miles ESE of Maupin.

map 1.7 2008/04/23 10:50:07 47.610N 120.296W 5.8 10 km ( 6 mi) SW of Entiat, WA
Entiat is directly north of Maupin)

map 1.0 2008/04/22 19:35:53 44.488N 122.702W 8.0 10 km ( 6 mi) E of Waterloo, OR

map 1.5 2008/04/22 18:51:13 45.135N 120.935W 14.9 12 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.4 2008/04/22 16:44:21 45.153N 120.911W 20.5 14 km ( 8 mi) E of Maupin, OR

map 1.9 2008/04/22 11:41:24 43.646N 122.232W 3.7 22 km (13 mi) ESE of Oakridge, OR

map 1.9 2008/04/21 04:30:40 45.119N 120.934W 13.2 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.7 2008/04/21 01:15:45 42.622N 122.407W 5.7 16 km (10 mi) NE of Butte Falls, OR

map 2.2 2008/04/20 19:11:18 45.480N 117.491W 8.1 5 km ( 3 mi) WSW of Lostine, OR

map 2.4 2008/04/20 03:01:33 45.136N 120.954W 14.0 11 km ( 7 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Carly's Gone and We Wuz Robbed!

Is American Idol rigged for a stand off between the two Davids? Are Americans nuts to keep Jason who should have been gone two or three weeks ago?

It used to be that we penalized those who screwed up on the live show.

The two women who sang their hearts out, landed in the bottom two and one had to leave. Syesha or Carly? I can't believe America voted Carly off. She easily should be in the top two. I can't believe these two were even in the bottom two. From now on, if I watch, it will only be to watch Syesha and David Cook sing.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Ocean Off Oregon is "Poorly Mapped"
Scientists have discovered a volcano on the floor of the North Atlantic about 90 miles south of Iceland.
The structure...rises about 3,300 feet (1,000 meters) above the surrounding sections of the (Mid-Atlantic) ridge, coming within 1,300 feet (400 meters) of the surface.

At its base the volcano is approximately 30 miles (50 kilometers) across. The peak contains a depression known as a caldera that is 6 miles (10 kilometers) wide.

That so large a structure could go undetected for so long "indicates how little is known about the seafloor," said (Ármann) Höskuldsson, (a University of Iceland volcanologist who was part of the international team that discovered the volcano last summer.)

Here's the tie to Oregon. So much of the earth is covered by water that "...ocean scientists studying a swarm of earthquakes off the Oregon coast are having a hard time pinning down the temblors' source, because much of the seabed is poorly mapped.

BTW, the fifth earthquake in one day was a 3.8!

MAP 3.8 2008/04/22 15:54:07 43.011 -126.109 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

Offshore Oregon Earthquakes
MAP 3.7 2008/04/22 06:41:32 43.116 -126.561 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

MAP 3.9 2008/04/22 05:35:21 43.311 -126.444 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

MAP 4.0 2008/04/22 03:58:51 43.212 -126.223 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

MAP 4.1 2008/04/22 03:17:04 42.967 -126.748 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst
Our weekly vlog/podcast on illegal immigration and border security. In this weeks edition...

Jobs Americans Won't Do? We don't think so!

MemeWatch: Require?

100% Preventable! Americans continue to pay the bloody price for open borders! When will the madness end?

Download the show for your Ipod here.

Make sure to check out this weeks sponsor:

This has been the Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst. The Blogs For Borders Blogroll is dedicated to American sovereignty, border security and a sane immigration policy.

If you’d like to join find out how right here.

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TF Stern Rants!
Too bad Baseball isn't like Golf!

My friend T. Fraser Stern at T F Stern's Rantings writes

I was watching the Astros game a while ago and watched as the Rockies center fielder (Ryan Spilborghs) attempted to catch a fly ball; what should have been a lead off double by (with the score 3-2 Rockies) Blum turned into the first out. Had he (Ryan) caught it “on the square” it would have been a great play; but the ball momentarily was dislodged from his glove, rolled on the grass and he was able to gather it back quickly. His back was to the infield and the umpire couldn’t see how the ball had gotten out and quickly retrieved.
Blum says "I just figured when a guy dives and makes a catch with the ball in his glove and raises it with is bare hand out the other side it's a little fishy, but they made the call."

The fans booed Ryan Spilborghs for several minutes. Astros fan TF says "What kind of hero would intentionally lie in front of an entire stadium full of fans just to record a single out?"

Apparently, some think it's ok to cheat. Rarely does it happen in golf.

Mitt Romney, Ladies and Gentlemen...
Peter Porcupine has the Mitt Romney's Top Ten Reasons for being out of the race.
First President Washington 1789-1797
Doug Mataconis at Below The Beltway catches LA Times in goof that should have been caught in the editorial process. After all, Washington is the reason that presidents are limited to two terms.
Rhymes With Right on Chicago
Rhymes With Right has an funny take on weekend violence in Chicago: US OUT OF CHICAGO NOW!
“Look forward, not backward. Better times are coming!”
Those are the words of Clif Droke. Clif Droke is the editor of the 3-times weekly Momentum Strategies Report which covers U.S. equities and forecasts individual stocks, short- and intermediate-term, using unique proprietary analytical methods and securities lending analysis. He is also the author of numerous books, including most recently "How to read chart patterns for greater profits!"

Droke writes in his latest article, "...the message of the bond market is one of the more exciting and optimistic messages being sent anywhere in the financial markets right now and it behooves us to pay close attention to what bonds are saying."

Droke first looks at the Libor Rate Chart since the first of the year.

...the Libor rate has been coming down conspicuously ever since then and has not approached the high levels of fear of over two months ago. The public remains afraid, yet the monetary powers are clearly not as worried over the state of U.S. financial affairs as they were earlier this year.
Next, he looks at the Treasury yield curve
The Treasury yield curve is calculated by dividing the 10-year Treasury yield into the 3-month T-bill. On a very basic level tells you gross profit margins of financial institutions. They borrow short-term money and loan it out at long-term yields.
The 3-month T-bill closed Friday at 1.32%, the 10-year Treasury closed at 3.74%. In six months we've gone from an inverted curve in which the short term is higher than long term to today when 10 year Treasuries are almost three time the short term rate. Droke writes, "There is some lag time between the improving yield curve and economic performance, but probably by mid-summer you’ll be seeing some noticeable improvements in the economy."

The next chart Droke looks at is the 2-year Treasury yield minus the Fed Funds Target Rate

Whenever this graph shows a rising trend, it indicates improving monetary liquidity. Whenever the graph goes above the “zero” line and into positive territory it means that monetary liquidity has been turbo charged and the results will be powerful. The trend has been rising for some time and isn’t far from going into positive territory.
The 10-month price oscillator of the 10-year Treasury is way over sold and "suggests a reversal in the downtrend for Treasury yields soon." Rising yields, he says, "the more bullish will be the implication for monetary liquidity."

Finally, Droke has a chart of Securities Lending and Permanent Open Market Operations:

Droke says "The Fed has been loaning securities at a rate not seen in its history."

That's why he says, “Look forward, not backward. Better times are coming!”

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Welcome Forbes' Readers
  2. “Look forward, not backward. Better times are coming!”

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Still Going!
map 1.2 2008/04/18 08:48:16 45.325N 121.733W 9.0 19 km (12 mi) E of Mount Hood Village, OR

map 1.6 2008/04/18 01:55:04 45.140N 120.934W 16.1 12 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.5 2008/04/18 00:26:30 45.318N 121.732W 8.5 19 km (12 mi) ESE of Mount Hood Village, OR

The Wealth Report
Here’s a wonderful blog. It’s called


Robert Frank looks at the lives and culture of the wealthy.

It’s posted daily in the Wall Street Journal. So much is made lately in politics about class envy and class warfare, soak the rich, penalize the rich, the rich are not paying their fare share etc. that it’s interesting to read recent PNC Wealth Management survey of 1,500 Americans with $500,000 or more in investible assets. It “found that 69% of respondents made most of their fortune through work, business ownership or investments. Only 6% made their wealth by inheriting it, while 25% made it through a combination of inheritence and earnings.”

Think of the businesses that were started like Google (GOOG) or Microsoft (MSFT) or Exxon (XOM), where the owners are fabulously rich and see how many are employed in the businesses: GOOG has 16,805 employees, MSFT has 79,000 and XOM 107,100.

In Another Reason the Middle Class Resent the Rich The Wealth Report reports on a Pew Research survey of the middle class and found conflicting views of the rich:

* They are split on how the rich got there. Fully 47% of those surveyed say the wealth of the wealthy is mainly the result of having good connections or being born into wealth, while 42% say it’s mainly the result of hard work, ambition and education.

* Those in the upper classes (56%) are more inclined to cite hard work, ambition and education as reasons behind their wealth than are those in the middle (42%) or lower (32%) classes.

* Asked if success in life is determined by forces outside one’s control, the upper class disagreed (69%) more than the middle (62%) or lower (51%) classes.

Clearly, the class warfare that is practiced in this country is detrimental to our economic health because it spreads disinformation about the way to wealth and the impact of new business on the employment needed for our growing and changing population.

PS, I feel so strongly about this issue of class warfare that I'm co-posting it at my blog, The Landfair Retail Focus, at Home Accents Today.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Why Would Anyone Vote For Clinton or Obama?
March 2nd, I wrote about the Bush tax cuts and included this chart from the CBO:

Do you see that the highest 20% and the second highest 20% paid more in taxes aftwer the tax cuts than before. Now why would any of us in the lower income levels want to roll back the tax cuts and allow the rich to pay a smaller percentage?

The WSJ has a column that leads to another question. Why would anyone vote for Obama if they are concerned about taxes and government spending. Obama wants to raise the capital gains tax (CGT) back to 28% (Clinton would like it back to 20% from the current 15%). The WSJ points out as did Charlie Gibson, by the way, that every time we lower the CGT we increase tax revenues. Both Obama and Clinton want to penalize the rich for being successful and promise not to raise taxes on those earning less than $250,000. According to the IRS and the WSJ

Both candidates would have voters believe that taxes on investment income only affect the rich. But that's not what Internal Revenue Service returns show. The reality is that the Clinton and Obama rate increases would hit millions of Americans who make well under $200,000. In 2005, 47% of all tax returns reporting capital gains were from households with incomes below $50,000, and 79% came from households with incomes below $100,000.
So I ask again, why would anyone vote against their own self interests.

One more thing, if your issue is the war in Iraq, only the Democrats have called for bringing back the draft. Ostensibly, to energize the peace movement. But it still would mean a loss of freedom for your children.

Ceres Capital Partners Files Chap 11
Ceres Capital Partners LLC, a firm specializing in forming structured investment vehicles (SIVs), filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday, saying it was unable to operate due to the subprime credit squeeze, according to a court filing. SIVs borrow short and lend long and this SIV found itself unable to roll over its short term debt.

Ceres, which is partly owned by XL Reinsurance America Inc (XL.N:)

and Stanfield Capital Partners had assets of $1 Million and liabilities between $50 million and $100 million! "SIV assets have been difficult to value since the mortgage market collapse..."

Akron Magnetic Boundary In Illinois Earthquake
On June 21, 2006, I posted about Ohio and the tenth earthquake there in the year. I wrote
Scientists say Ohio's earthquakes are linked to an ancient scar six-thousand feet deep that is known as the Akron Magnetic Boundary. The fault runs diagonally through Summit County and into Geauga, Lake and Ashtabula counties and was formed when North America tried unsuccessfully to split a billion years ago.
That same fault appears to be associated with todays 5.4M in Illinois.
5.4 Earthquake Near New Madrid Seismic Zone!

On the government’s map of relative risk of damaging earthquakes, a Midwest hot spot stands out. (Excerpted from U.S.G.S. image.)

The (5.4M) earthquake occurred in the Wabash Valley fault system, adjacent to the New Madrid Seismic Zone, (Dave) Applegate, (USGS senior science adviser), said.

That zone, named for the town of New Madrid, Missouri, was the site of a series of huge tremors in 1811 and 1812.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Mount Hood Village, OR Earthquakes

map 1.3 2008/04/17 14:53:51 45.322N 121.707W 9.2 21 km (13 mi) E of Mount Hood Village, OR

map 1.5 2008/04/17 12:44:40 45.324N 121.725W 8.6 20 km (12 mi) E of Mount Hood Village, OR

map 1.9 2008/04/17 08:05:07 45.320N 121.732W 8.5 19 km (12 mi) E of Mount Hood Village, OR

Update:

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Still Going!
  2. Mount Hood Village, OR Earthquakes
The Clinton-Obama Debate
As I was watching —the Clinton-Obama debate last night. I found myself yelling at the TV. Both say they respect the job our soldiers or military are doing in Iraq. But when asked about the advice of Petraeus that a precipitous pullout could upset all the hard fought gains, both insist on a timetable; Clinton 60 days and Obama 16 months. Neither, but especially Clinton, would not accept the advice of generals and admirals who urged them to keep troops in Iraq. Now aren't the generals and admirals part of the group they just praised?

Both would extend our deterrant umbrella to Israel meaning if Iran attacks (or wipes out) Israel with nukes, then we would drop the almighty hammer on Iran in retaliation. Both insist that Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Now if I am a cowboy on my horse and a rattlesnake is about to attack, do I wait until he bites or shoot first? Wait, shoot first? Wait or shoot first?

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Hedging Credit-default swaps (CDS)???

"Credit-default swaps (CDS) worldwide expanded to cover $62.2 trillion of debt in 2007 as investors rushed to protect against losses triggered by the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market." so reports the the New York-based International Swaps and Derivatives Association as reported in Bloomberg. The market has grown from $34.5 Trillion in 2006.

The CDS swamps the subprime market in size 6-fold. The entire U.S. mortgage market is $11 Trillion and the subrime is only $1 Trillion. Some are worried that 10% of the CDS market or $6 Trillion could go bad, dwarfing the subprime problem.

Credit-default swaps, traded by banks and securities firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., are the fastest-growing part of the $454.5 trillion market for over- the-counter derivatives, financial instruments derived from stocks, bonds, loans, currencies and commodities, or linked to specific events like changes in the weather or interest rates.
Under a CDS, a bank originates loan to a company. A second bank (or other financial institution) can agree to cover the credit risk for the loan, by agreeing to make payment to originating bank if the company defaults on the original loan.
The second party to the loan, the one covering the credit risk is the "Counter-Party".

What happens if your loan goes bad, but the counter-party is overwhelmed with losses and can't make good on the insurance? Since everyone is trying to manage risk with derivatives and the biggest risk is the counter-party risk, expect to see some kind of hedge used in conjunction with CDS to manage that risk. It's just junk piled upon junk!

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

2.9 Earthquake Near Maupin
map 2.9 2008/04/15 19:57:52 45.131N 120.947W 12.7 12 km ( 7 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 2.3 2008/04/15 14:41:01 42.386N 122.826W 4.6 5 km ( 3 mi) S of White City, OR

Obama Reconsidered!
Yesterday, in Obama On Bitterness I quoted a woman who wrote into PoliPundit:
I am “clinging to religion” because it guides my moral compass and helps me make the right choices. I am clinging to my gun to protect my home and family because I live too close to Detroit. I cling to view on immigration because my country is being invaded and over run with slave laborers who are driving down wages and bankrupting our social services.
I thought Sen. Barack Obama had made a huge goof. Today, after looking at how Obama reacted, courtesy of Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis and part of Obama's speech captured on YouTube, I not so sure. Judge for yourself.

I think he has tapped into something. There is an anger out there. An anger about the ever increasing spending by our government, but some things don't get any better. Our highways are falling apart, our kids don't all get a good education even though we keep spending more money on the schools. Our country is overrun by aliens and our government can't secure the borders. The drug war has been lost a long time ago and we've lost how many generations to drugs.

We spend a trillion dollars on a war, yet we have some 40 million people without health care. Compared to Japan, Taiwan, Germany, the Nordic countries and tiny Switzerland who insure that all citizens have universal health care, we in the U.S. are facing ever higher health insurance premiums and 16% of our GDP is spent on health care. We have the most expensive system and the fewest covered. It is unheard of for a family to declare bankruptcy over health cost in the aformentioned countries. Here 700,000 people declare bankruptcy every year because of medical costs. But the government keeps promising they will fix the problem if we spend more money on the solution.

Damn right the middle class is fed up with politicians.

Another thing that makes me outraged is the YouTube video on Mish's site about lawyers training corporations and HR departments on how "to game the immigration system."

"[O]ur goal is clearly not to find a qualified and interested U.S. worker," says Lawrence Lebowitz, director of marketing for the Pittsburgh law firm Cohen & Grigsby, before an audience of employers at the firm's conference.

The trick, according to Cohen & Grigsby attorneys, is to only go through the motions of hiring Americans without ever intending to.

It makes me sick to see Americans teaching others how to screw fellow Americans. Shame on them!

Build The Border Fence!

Action Item — Please Sign Petition

by Irene Davis at ADMC

Please sign a petition demanding that our leaders in Congress build the border fence — as it was promised to us. Signing is free, and will take only a moment of your time. Just a couple of mouse clicks to fight for your country.

After passing the Secure Fence Act last year, certain members of Congress "gutted" the legislation and along with it any hope that a real fence would be constructed.


Roughly 25 miles west of Naco, AZ, the U.S./Mexican border is delineated by a seven-strand, barbed wire fence. The fence here is divided by a simple cattle guard, often used by drug runners. The two-wheeled dirt road leading into the U.S. is remotely sensored to monitor any traffic heading north. photo credit "Robert Ludwig/GWP"

A double-layered fence was promised to the American people, and I am holding leadership accountable and demanding they make good on their promise.

Two bills are currently in Congress that seek to reform and reinstate the Secure Fence Act. I support these bills, and urge you to do so as well.

I have created a petition at Grassfire calling on leadership to put the will of the people first and take the necessary steps to protect our borders from invasion.

The "Restore The Fence" petition will be presented at this Thursday's press conference on Capitol Hill. We'd like to add as many signatures as possible before then. So please go here and sign the petition:

Build the Border Fence as Promised!

Then telephone and email as many friends as possible and ask them to sign it as well.

Thanks for joining with me.

Ms. Irene Davis

Update:

Update:

Update:

Monday, April 14, 2008

Maupin Earthquakes
map 1.9 2008/04/13 09:32:07 45.120N 120.931W 18.7 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.5 2008/04/12 16:37:18 45.139N 120.928W 16.7 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Linens 'n Things Chapter 11 UPDATE

I posted last week that Linens 'n Things May File Chapter 11 Tuesday. Gifts & Decorative Accessories wrote Sunday

...at least two retail liquidators have already conducted inventory valuations and store closing assessments in upward of 100 Linens ’n Things (LNT) units that might be shuttered.

At the same time, many suppliers, including at least some of its majors, have either stopped shipping LNT or placed them on COD status, people familiar with the situation said.

[...]

The beleaguered retailer has apparently been preparing for that eventuality for at least two weeks, not long after its fourth quarter conference call in which it reported a steep net loss of $62 million on anemic sales of $962.9 million. During that time, LNT merchants and others have been calling around to vendors gathering formal corporate information on them — including mailing addresses and names of senior executives — the kind commonly included in court filings listing unsecured creditors.

Update:

It's mazing how interconnected the financial markets are. Linens is on the hook to GE and a $15 Million payment is due tomorrow, Tuesday!
A GE spokesman confirmed that its Commercial Finance unit is the lead agent on a $700-million revolving credit facility to Linens 'n Things, but declined to comment further.
The problems at Linens "raise questions about other retailers taken private in buyouts in recent years. They include Toys "R" Us and upmarket chain, Neiman Marcus."

Apollo Global Management bought Linens in a LBO and has filed a prospectus to go public "and is negotiating (with a couple of other firms) to buy $US12 billion of leveraged debt from Citigroup," which would help Citigroup.

Like Sun Capital "some of Apollo's other buyouts are said to be finding it tough, including real estate group, Realogy, the parent of the real estate companies Coldwell Banker and Century 21, and another chain, Claire's Stores, a jewelery, cosmetic and accessories chain catering for young women."

Obama On Bitterness

While I was watching the John Adams final hour on HBO last night, it occurred to me the fight between statists and those loving personal liberty was going on, hot and heavy back then just as now. The Hamiltonian branch pushed Adams for a standing army and a national bank similar to the FED. Jefferson, who understood Hamilton, and Adams argued about these topics for years:

"I have sworn upon the altar of God, eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man" Thomas Jefferson*

If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, (i.e., the "business cycle") the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.

Thomas Jefferson, President of the United States 1801-1809

Last night emphasized how important it is to have some internal compass to guide you in decision making. Without that compass, advisers on both sides will bring you to a standstill.

Then there's Sen. Barack H Obama and his comments about the little guy and bitterness. Here's one comment posted at PoliPundit:

I am “clinging to religion” because it guides my moral compass and helps me make the right choices. I am clinging to my gun to protect my home and family because I live too close to Detroit. I cling to view on immigration because my country is being invaded and over run with slave laborers who are driving down wages and bankrupting our social services.

This Elitist snob is so out of toch it’s scarry.

Don't look now, but Hillary is gaining. It doesn't matter she can't win, either!
Oregon Quite Active!

MAP 4.3 2008/04/14 06:40:03 44.744 -128.935 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

MAP 4.8 2008/04/14 05:38:34 44.331 -129.322 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

MAP 4.2 2008/04/14 05:20:45 44.390 -129.360 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst
Our weekly vlog podcast on illegal immigration and border security issues. In this weeks edition:

The true costs of illegal immigration: Healthcare!

100% Preventable! Americans continue to pay the bloody price for open borders. When will the madness end?

100% Preventable follow up: One family faces the crushing grief caused by open borders and lax enforcement.

Download for your ipod here.

You can watch the entirety of the LA City Council meeting for "Jamiel's Law" here.

Click on image

This has been the Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst. The Blogs For Borders Blogroll is dedicated to American sovereignty, border security and a sane immigration policy.

If you’d like to join find out how right here. If you operate a patriotic business, website, blog or are simply a generous individual with a patriotic bent and would like to sponsor a show you can contact us about that here.

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Saturday, April 12, 2008

Rock and Roll in Oregon
Here's a map of the latest quake activity off the coast of Oregon. That star is the latest, a 5.2 and it took place today.

MAP 5.2 2008/04/12 12:05:16 43.664 -127.534 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

In addition the USGS is reporting the following quakes on land in Oregon:

map 1.1 2008/04/11 22:00:23 45.134N 120.928W 15.5 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 2.0 2008/04/11 13:10:37 43.654N 122.227W 3.5 22 km (13 mi) ESE of Oakridge, OR

It's Over

Six Le Ponant pirates captured:

French commandos seized six pirates in Somalia on Friday during a daring helicopter raid launched shortly after the bandits had released the 30-strong crew of a luxury yacht hijacked last week.

Update:

Nordic-Style Takeover Of Banks
There's good news!

Before I get there a little background. In September, 2007, I posted about Web of Debt based on the book of the same name written by Ellen Hodgson Brown J.D.. Our Constitution says:

Article I, Section 8, Clause 5. The Congress shall have Power…To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures.
When the U.S. created the Federal Reserve, we gave up the power to create money, as outlined in the Constitution, to a cartel of banks who create money out of thin air. We are finally in a situation, not unlike a Ponzi scheme, where the banks have run out of borrowers. The banks are now insolvent. Brown in her latest writing at Le Metropole Cafe says,
A Ponzi scheme is a form of pyramid scheme in which new investors must continually be sucked in at the bottom to support the investors at the top. In this case, new borrowers must continually be sucked in to support the creditors at the top. The Wall Street Ponzi scheme is built on “fractional reserve” lending, which allows banks to create “credit” (or “debt”) with accounting entries. Banks are now allowed to lend from 10 to 30 times their “reserves,” essentially counterfeiting the money they lend. Over 97 percent of the U.S. money supply (M3) has been created by banks in this way.[2]

The problem is that banks create only the principal and not the interest necessary to pay back their loans, so new borrowers must continually be found to take out new loans just to create enough “money” (or “credit”) to service the old loans composing the money supply. The scramble to find new debtors has now gone on for over 300 years – ever since the founding of the Bank of England in 1694 – until the whole world has become mired in debt to the bankers’ private money monopoly. The Ponzi scheme has finally reached its mathematical limits: we are “all borrowed up.”

When the banks ran out of creditworthy borrowers, they had to turn to uncreditworthy “subprime” borrowers; and to avoid losses from default, they moved these risky mortgages off their books by bundling them into “securities” and selling them to investors. To induce investors to buy, these securities were then “insured” with credit default swaps. But the housing bubble itself was another Ponzi scheme, and eventually there were no more borrowers to be sucked in at the bottom who could afford the ever-inflating home prices. When the subprime borrowers quit paying, the investors quit buying mortgage-backed securities. The banks were then left holding their own suspect paper; and without triple-A ratings, there is little chance that buyers for this “junk” will be found.

The banks will be looking for a bailout from a party with deep pockets, but no pocket is big enough for the $681 Trillion of derivatives that were written. Many solutions are being floated by the PTB.

Now that good news that I first wrote about. The U.S. is looking into nationalizing our banks. Whether the Nordic model is used or we come up with some other solution, the end result will be the dismantling of the cartel of banks that own the FED.

Norway ensured that shareholders of insolvent lenders received nothing and the senior management was entirely purged.

"The law was amended so that we could take 100pc control of any bank where its equity had fallen below zero. Shareholders were left with nothing. It was very controversial," he said.

[2] See Ellen Brown, “Dollar Deception: How Banks Secretly Create Money,” webofdebt.com/articles (July 3, 2008).

Friday, April 11, 2008

East Of The Mountains, Rocks!
map 1.7 2008/04/11 06:30:48 45.136N 120.930W 15.6 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.5 2008/04/10 14:24:29 45.131N 120.920W 15.0 14 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

map 1.1 2008/04/10 02:36:38 47.652N 120.284W 6.7 6 km ( 4 mi) WSW of Entiat, WA

map 1.5 2008/04/09 14:32:46 44.636N 117.484W 3.4 29 km (18 mi) WSW of Richland, OR

map 2.5 2008/04/08 22:58:37 47.679N 120.391W 0.6 13 km ( 8 mi) W of Entiat, WA

map 1.3 2008/04/08 05:52:04 45.137N 120.934W 12.8 12 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Linens 'n Things May File Chapter 11

The New Jersey-based company, Linens 'n Things, whose products range from sheets and curtains to cookware and massage chairs, has 600 stores nationwide and $2.79 billion in net sales last year.

Linens 'n Things has seven stores in Oregon: TANASBOURNE TOWN CENTER, CASCADE PLAZA in Beaverton, FORUM SHOPPING CENTER in Bend, ROGUE VALLEY MALL in Medford, two stores in Portland and the LANCASTER MALL in Salem.

...the U.S. housing downturn and weak economy have exacerbated the company's problems, since consumers have reined in spending on home goods.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. It's Official, Linens 'n Things Files Chap 11
  2. Linens 'n Things May File Chapter 11
Swarm Off The Coast
Yesterday, there was a 5.0 Magnitude quake off the Oregon coast:

MAP 5.0 2008/04/10 08:04:33 44.002 -128.399 10.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

KGW reports that geologists are now labeling activities here as a swarm.

Geologists said the swarm started just about two weeks ago and have all been relatively shallow, happening along the plate boundary. They added that the swarm was not related to the Subduction Zone and there have been no reports of damage or injuries.

[...]

“They're only occurring six miles deep. That means they're still along the plate here and they're not occurring up here on this plate. That Subduction Zone plate that’s the one we worry about,” State Geologist Vicki McConnell said.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Bakken Formation Survey Is Out

The very first story I read about the Bakken Formation was in the NYTimes of January 1. 2008:

Estimates have ranged wildly, said Julie LeFever, a geologist with the North Dakota Geological Survey, but many scientists suspect that the Bakken may contain 200 billion barrels of oil — significantly more, for instance, than the much debated field in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Still more in doubt, though, is how much trapped oil can be recovered. (emphasis added)
200 Billion barrels of oil! That caught my attention.

Then the Dakota Voice wrote on April 6, 2008:

The US Geological Survey is about to release a new report on the Bakken Formation, an oil deposit that spans areas of North and South Dakota and parts of Montana. The report will specify accurate assessments of the oil reserve that is currently estimated to contain up to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil. If true, this will expand the known oil reserves of the U.S. up to ten times the known capacity to date. (emphasis added)
Well, the report from the USGS is out, hat tip to Instapundit and Next Big Future
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean undiscovered volumes of 3.65 billion barrels of oil, 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids in the Bakken Formation of the Williston Basin Province, Montana and North Dakota. (emphasis added)
3.65 Billion barrels is a far cry from 500 billion barrels, but it does increase our proved reserves from 42 billion barrels to 45 billion barrels a 6.7% increase. Some may find the USGS report extremely disappointing. However, The USGS press release of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation is 25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate. As more wells are drilled with the new technology available, expect to see estimates move much higher.

More Money Is Not The Answer For PPSD!
On the front page of The Oregonian is a map of Metro area high school graduation rates. The map shows the schools with the 10 best graduation rates and the schools with the 10 worst graduation rates. The Portland Public School District (PPSD) has no schools in the top ten, but it does have eight schools in the bottom ten. Looking at the map, if you are a family with young kids, you sure don't want to live on the East side and probably don't want to live in the PPSD on the West side.

Century High''s dropout rate is down to 1% and several strategies seem made for a small school.

  • Monitor teens constantly and step in early at the first sign of trouble.
  • Reach out to families with help even therapy
  • Put freshmen into intensive reading classes if needed
  • Make it easy for students to catch up on credits
Yet in Portland, the smaller schools have the worst dropout records. The spokespersons for the schools just seem to have excuses for their failure:
  • But graduation rates have been falling at BizTech and ACT for the past two years as students adjusted to the transition from a large, comprehensive high school to smaller schools.
    (Shouldn't the smaller schools be able to monitor students better?)
  • Under the federal No Child Left Behind law, students at schools that don't meet federal benchmarks in math and reading have the option to transfer to a higher-achieving school.

    The exodus left Marshall and Roosevelt with "a harder population to teach, a population with more academic challenges," she said. "We've done a good job with some students getting them closer to standards."

    (Shouldn't the smaller schools be able to reach students better?)
  • Marshall and Roosevelt are among 38 small schools across Oregon that have received grants from the Gates Foundation and the Meyer Memorial Trust. The money promotes a philosophy that students will feel more motivated to stay in class and graduate if they're in an intimate setting and make a personal connection with teachers.
    Graduation rates are falling for the last two years. Where's the sense of urgency?
If you look at Direct classroom spending per student in the Metro area, you'll find that Beaverton spends $4,417; Canby $4,181; Centennial $4,738; Corbett $4,273; David Douglas $4,701; Estacada $ 4,604; Eugene $4,564; Forest Grove $5,002; Hillsboro $4,192; Lake Oswego $3,981; Parkrose $4,826 and Portland spends $5,218 per student.

We are not getting our money's worth!

Trade Deficit For February, 2008
The Trade Deficit for February, 2008 was announced today by the Commerce Department
2006
Jan. - Dec. -758,522
Jan. - Feb. -127,535
January -65,158
February -62,377
March -62,178
April -62,336
May -65,714
June -64,527
July -67,554
August -67,606
September -64,149
October -58,165
November -58,455
December -60,306
2007
Jan. - Dec. -708,515
Jan. - Feb. -115,585
January -57,356
February -58,228
March -63,035
April -59,213
May -60,274
June -59,983
July -58,895
August -56,729
September -56,945
October -57,586
November -62,409
December -57,856
2008
Jan. - Feb. -121,280
January (R) -58,959
February -62,321
The deficit topped $62 Billion, the largest since November and up 4.9% from February, 2007. The USD has declined from about 85 to 77, (see chart) yet it has not hurt imports. We still need almost $2 Billion a day from foreigners!

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

John Bird & John Fortune
So you want to know how the financial markets really work?

Hat tip to George Ure at UrbanSurvival

Experts Predict Busy Hurricane Season

From the Tampa bay Online edition

The experts are again predicting the possibility that hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin will be above average during the 2008 season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

[...]

“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April,

But...Al Gore is capable of predicting the future 50 years out!

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

American Idol Tonight
On American Idol tonight:

Michael Johns — Dream On - Didn't like it

Syesha Mercado — I Believe - I love this girl

Jason Castro — Somewhere Over The Rainbow - Kate McPhee did it better

David Cook — Innocent - thought it was terrible and I didn't like the writing on the hand. It was a vote for me, plea.

Carly Smithson — The Show Must Go On - fantastic voice, but she needs to appear less angry or intense

Kristy Lee Cook — Anyway - She's going for the CW vote and this was her best so far

David Archuleta — Angels - hated it!

Brooke White — You’ve Got A Friend - I like her, but comes across as too desparate. Boring song.

Bottom three

1. Brooke White
2. Michael Johns
3. Jason Castro

Still think Jason should go.

Monday, April 7, 2008

Cascadia Subduction Zone Ripe For Bigger Quakes

Based on research on the "devastating earthquake and tsunami in the Solomon Islands that killed 52 people and displaced more than 6,000", scientists are revising the potential for more severe earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction Zone in northwestern North America says Science Daily.

TPG To Shore Up WAMU???
I last posted about Washington Mutual here on March 19th quoting Senior Editor Marcie Belles at Bank360.net that WAMU "is technically insolvent." Belles writes today that the bank is nearing a deal for a $5 Billion capital infusion.
Washington Mutual Inc.’s stock continued its roller-coaster ride today, on speculation that the Seattle-based thrift was nearing a deal for $5 billion in capital.

WaMu’s stock was up 17% as of 10:30 a.m. Eastern time today, as investors rallied on the news that private equity firm TPG and others would shore up the bank’s capital position. In the past six weeks, the bank’s stock [ticker: WM] has dropped more than 40%.

WaMu has been hit especially hard by the mortgage crisis, being referred to by some as technically insolvent. In January, the lender said it planned to set aside as much as $2 billion for credit losses in the quarter. But last month Moody’s predicted that WaMu would have to set aside far more — $12 billion of loan-loss reserves. At the time, the rating agency slashed WaMu’s debt rating to one step above junk status.

Though it appears WaMu’s shareholders have been assuaged, their relief may be short-lived if Moody’s predictions are correct.

WAMU is up 32% to $13.50. TPG was formally the Texas Pacific Group which, if memory serves, tried to buy Portland General Electric.

Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst
Our weekly blog podcast on illegal immigration and border security issues. In this weeks edition:

Importing Mexico? Where is the roughest neighborhood in Mexico? LA!

Reconquista the musical! Mexican rapper demands amnesty makes threats!

100% Preventable! Americans continue to pay the bloody price for open borders. When will the madness end?

Download for your ipod here.

You can watch the entire El Chivo 'Si Si Puede' video here.

If you operate a patriotic business, website, blog or are simply a generous individual with a patriotic bent who would like to see our borders secured and would like to sponsor a show you can contact us about that here.

This has been the Blogs For Borders Video Blogburst. The Blogs For Borders Blogroll is dedicated to American sovereignty, border security and a sane immigration policy. If you’d like to join find out how right here.

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Sunday, April 6, 2008

Bakken Forrmation

On January 1, 2008, I posted about the Bakken Formation in Bakken Formation, Big Increase In Reserves! "...Many scientists suspect that the Bakken may contain 200 billion barrels of oil!" The Dakota Voice writes today

The US Geological Survey is about to release a new report on the Bakken Formation, an oil deposit that spans areas of North and South Dakota and parts of Montana. The report will specify accurate assessments of the oil reserve that is currently estimated to contain up to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil.
Whatever the number, 200 Billion barrels or 500 Billion barrels, the Bakken Formation increases our reserves at least 10 fold. It means that instead of sending $340 Billion Dollars overseas each year for our oil needs, we could be keeping that money here at home. Next Energy News writes
...if 200 billion barrels of oil at $90 a barrel are recovered in the high plains the added wealth to the US economy would be $18 Trillion Dollars which would go a long way in stabilizing the US trade deficit and could cut the cost of oil in half in the long run.
"The Newspaper Industry Is Dying..."

Douglas McIntyre at Blogging Stocks suggests that
Journal Register (NYSE: JRC) may be the first large, listed newspaper company to go into Chapter 11. With falling revenue and high debt, the company ...publishes a number of papers including the New Haven Register.

[...]

The newspaper industry is dying more quickly now and there will be other defaults in the next year or two. Large chains like McClatchy (NYSE: MNI) face severe debt problems. Its lenders may end up owning the company.

Saturday, April 5, 2008

3.6 Near Maupin!
MAP 3.6 2008/04/05 16:38:53 45.128N 120.941W 17.8 12 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Maupin, OR

Massachusetts, Universal Coverage Strains Care
Both Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton have called for universal health care.

The NY Times has an eye-opening article about Massachusetts' experience with a new law requiring residents to have health insurance. There may not be enough doctors!

“It’s a recipe for disaster,” Dr. (Patricia A.) Sereno, (state president of the American Academy of Family Physicians) said. “It’s great that people have access to health care, but now we’ve got to find a way to give them access to preventive services. The point of this legislation was not to get people episodic care.”
If this state is facing problems, what will the rest of the country face if we have national health coverage? Rationing is really the answer!
With its population aging, the country will need 40 percent more primary care doctors by 2020.
Some argue that we have too many doctors. It appears that GPs and primary care physicians are most in demand.
Studies show that the number of medical school graduates in the United States entering family medicine training programs, or residencies, has dropped by 50 percent since 1997. A decade long decline gave way this year to a slight increase in numbers, perhaps because demand is driving up salaries.

There have been slight increases in the number of doctors training in internal medicine, which focuses on the nonsurgical treatment of adults. But the share of those residents who then establish a general practice has plummeted, to 24 percent in 2006 from 54 percent in 1998, according to the American College of Physicians.

Politicians think you can just pass a law and insure all. Besides the cost of such a program, government must FORCE families to purchase this health care and then find a way to give more than inadequate service. Today, you have all the paperwork the government requires that is driving primary care physicians into retirement and the problems of rural healthcare service. None easily solved with the passage of a law.

Friday, April 4, 2008

Wells Rallies To Help Themselves!
On March 1st I posted that the town that suffered from the 6.0 Nevada earthquake, Wells, NV, needed help, but didn't qualify for FEMA aid. Damage to private property didn't reach the agency's required limits.

The Salt Lake Tribune informs us that "residents are raising money to rebuild homes and repair the town."

A rally begins there at 10 a.m. Saturday. A town-wide barbecue begins at noon. Other festivities include hot air balloon rides and an auction of donated goods.

The town is trying to raise $500,000 in private money to assist the town government, the local school district and residents who suffered losses in the 6.0 earthquake

Anyone wishing to donate should mail payments to Nevada State Bank, P.O. Box 308, Wells, NV 89835. Make checks payable to: Wells Nevada Earthquake Fund.
Fitch Drops MBIA to AA!

From Forbes,

In the financial sector MBIA (nyse: MBI) made the afternoon headlines, after Fitch Ratings cut its long-term rating to A from AA, dropped its insurer financial strength rating to AA from AAA. The rating agency also said the bond insurer's losses on collateralized debt obligations could reach $4.9 billion, according to TradeTheNews.com.
The more influential Moody's and Standard and Poors still have MBI at AAA
The MBIA news appeared to spark the late selling trend that saw the market coast to its mixed finish.
David Gaffen at the WSJ says the market didn't react to the news because it is "so last month."