Entries Tagged as 'Economics'

Top Books about HR Analytics

The Basic Principles of People Analytics

An ability to understand and anticipate human behavior contributes to the rational use of resources. Such skills open up a huge field of activity for experts. Despite the comparative novelty of the mentioned discipline, the first thematic blocks were laid several decades ago. Below, we present a list of books that will aid both professionals and beginners to better comprehend the basics of management and achieve maximum results.

The Basic Principles of People Analytics

This manual introduces readers to fundamental rules of analysis of human nature. It contains more than 20 illustrative examples, and business cases are directly related to practical application of knowledge on prognostication. Its author, David Green, plunges into the world of relationships through an accessible language and simple concepts.

Doing HR Analytics – A Practitioner’s Handbook with R Examples

This is a real scientific research, including facts, sets of figures and other useful statistics. In fact, the indicated guide tells about how to deal with internal absenteeism, to cut staff painlessly and to motivate wage-earners. Lyndon Sundmark focused his attention on the details, describing practical nuances of personnel supervision. The author dressed own text in an attractive presentation format, which greatly facilitates the audience insight on HR-analytics aspects.

The Power of People: Learn How to Use Successful Organizations

Actually, we deal with a bestseller designed for HR managers and chiefs of any level. If you are planning a business project, first read these books. They will help you not only to cope with enormous energy and potential of workers, but also to get acquainted with innovative ideas in this area. The title is not chosen by chance. The manual is written for people in order to teach them to find a common language with their own kind. Their impressions and experiences are shared by adepts.

Winning on HR Analytics: Leveraging Data for Competitive Advantage

In the current world of global innovation, HR knowledge becomes dominant. It is these skills that facilitate the measurement of a potential of social capital and setting of strategic goals for various devices. Famous global giants like Google, Walmart or American Express have achieved tremendous results due to the correct domestic policy. The authorities of companies highly appreciate the contribution of each laborer to the common cause, which stimulates the staff to produce new ideas. Wise analytics involves verifying the findings, updating research methods and formulating clear hypotheses. This book is invaluable for practitioners seeking to create healthy competition.

The Employee Experience Advantage: How to Win the War for Talent by Giving Employees the Workspaces

Conclusions and recommendations of the mentioned study are based on the outcomes, grounding on more than 100 scientific articles and interviews with successful executives of firms. The authors came to an inference about the existence of three communication levels within any organization, namely: cultural, technological and physical components. Visiting every milieu, you can reach extrapolation of staff‘s experience through the space COOL, technology ACE and culture CELEBRATED. Specialists are given a unique chance to design a future workplace where employees will want to spend as much time as possible.

“The Workplace Is Killing People, and Nobody Cares” by Jeffrey Pfeffer & Dylan Walsh

The authors of this book begin not with a boring preface, but with accusations against employers. The last is that people are forced to die for their wages, working in bad conditions. The human psyche is under the pressure not only of modern fears and depression. Excessive damage is caused by the indifference of companies that are not interested in the excellent arrangement of an office. According to Pfeffer, it is the analyst who is able to shed light on the solution to this issue. Having received the relevant data, you will give an opportunity to make a correct assessment of the production dynamics, team cohesion and a sense of individual satisfaction. It remains only to hope that the sharks of business will find it necessary to listen to Pfeffer’s advice and reduce the harm caused. The main thing is to get it in the nearest store.

“Why HR needs to up its game in strategic people analytics” by Max Blumberg

Max Blumberg is known for his original thoughts and powerful interviews about social capital. Some of his articles have a truly provocative effect. The last work is no exception. On its pages, he states that current managers need to step up to address economic problems. The lack of an adequate response will inflict enormous damage on the company’s laborers. The author practically paints a training course aimed at improving the fundamentals of HR and forecasting in general. Max argues that this is one of the numerous ways to get people to move from concrete projects and operational tasks towards the real impact on business leaders.

“How to start a people analytics project” by Andrew Marritt

This author refers to one of the most astute commentators on technological and human subjects. Already in 2018, Andrew wrote a lot of articles, including the problem of HR analysts. His data are systematized and verified. He describes a number of techniques, such as “5 Whys”, for the timely identification of a “hole” in a business structure. In addition, the author emphasizes the need for its quick resolution, gives recommendations on the development and testing of concepts, suggests new methods of gathering information and criteria for assessing success. In general, you will receive a guidebook for all times, compiled in a simple and understandable language.

“Big Companies Are Embracing Analytics, But Most Still Do not Have a Data-Driven Culture” by Tom Davenport & Randy Bean

According to the Bersin study, more than 60% of large companies have acquired special teams to analyze behavior patterns. Not surprisingly, only understanding their motives receives the key to the progress of any collective action. Important decisions should be made taking into account the received data and internal culture. This article is more relevant than ever, as its authors demonstrate that only one-third of firms have succeeded in switching to a data policy. On the one hand, such conclusion sounds promising, indicating further trends. On the other hand, the figure is appalling as few firms have realized the value of HR analysts.

Thus, your attention was given to the list of books have repeatedly proved their effectiveness, both in providing theoretical information and in testing practical skills. Naturally, it is difficult to call it exhaustive. In fact, every month there are interesting novelties that cause a desire to try the methods they proposed in real life.

Income Inequality, Wage Stagnation, Debt, and the American Dream

Income Inequality, Wage Stagnation, Debt, and the American Dream

Income Inequality, Wage Stagnation, Debt, and the American Dream

Approximately 60% of Americans think that the American dream is now more difficult to achieve. For many, the dream is to own a big house, a nice car, and to pay for monthly bills without running into money troubles. However, all of these depend on household income and its power to both see and seize the dream. Analysts blame this turn of events on income inequality and the fact that the income gap between the affluent and everyone else has been seeing a steady climb for some 30 years.

The Struggle of the Middle Class

Many households in the United States now spend more than they make. According to a CNBC report in July 2017, most Americans consider themselves as part of the middle class but that their six-figure income is barely enough to cover for transportation, healthcare, housing, and other needs. A Forbes report in 2016 also paints a similar picture. The report notes that 63% of Americans do not have enough money stashed away to cover for a $500 emergency.

The Debt Burden 

In May 2017, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported a new peak in household debt in the US. According to the report, the debt burden has grown to a whopping $12.7 trillion with student loans, housing payments, credit card debt, and auto loans being the major contributors. Although many assume that this is mainly due to careless spending, it is not true in most cases. Student loans are higher now because of soaring tuition costs, according to experts. Despite the fact that cost of living has gone down, for the most part, the United States has been experiencing a wage stagnation for years.

How to Get Back on Track

Achieving the American dream can mean tightening your belt for a number of years but with the average household debt at $137,063, getting back on track is easier said than done.The good news is, personal loans can help consolidate debt at favorable rates. While this is still a form of debt, a personal loan can help Americans pay off their debt sooner and still save a little money along the way. Personal loans have lower interest rates in general, and some lenders even offer rates as low as 5%.

Basic financial management techniques also help, according to experts. Apart from paying off all debts, it is important to find ways to decrease monthly expenses. Getting a cable and internet bundle, for example, is a good idea. For individuals who don’t really watch that much TV, it is advisable to get rid of the cable altogether. Even the little things count. Your daily caffeine fix at your favorite coffee shop can survive a downgrade by making your coffee at home. It is also a good idea to list your priorities and to remind yourself of these priorities every day. Sticking to paying for your needs first before spending your money anywhere else will make financial decisions easier for you. With enough discipline and drive, you still have the chance to live the American dream. 

Jenny Holt <jennyholtwriter@gmail.com>


Key Points On Bitcoin Investment

Key Points On Bitcoin Investment

Key Points On Bitcoin Investment

If the idea of investing in cryptocurrency didn’t excite you before 2017, there’s a good chance it caught your attention last year. Bitcoin, in particular, had a sensational year, starting right around $1,000 in early January and skyrocketing to nearly $20,000 toward the end of the year. It would be easy to look at the cryptocurrency market and groan at the idea of having missed the train; then again, plenty of people are even now looking to hop aboard in the hopes that these bizarre digital currency alternatives just keep climbing.

I can’t tell you whether or not that’s a good idea. Frankly, no one can. Bitcoin and its fellow digital currencies are operating in uncharted territory, and while people can draw comparisons to the currency trade or to other valuable commodities, there’s not really any exact parallel that informs us as to where bitcoin will go from here. What I can do, however, is lay out some of the key points that should go into any decision or analysis of this kind of investment.

The 2017 Surge Is Over

The 2017 surge in bitcoin was quite something to behold, even if you aren’t really interested in investment patterns, cryptocurrency, or finance. It just isn’t the sort of thing that happens very often, and those who played it correctly were surely able to make a lot of money. However, it’s important not to get caught up now in what happened a few months ago. In late January bitcoin slipped below $11,000 with all major cryptocurrencies feeling the pressure. While it may yet start climbing again as it did before, this proves beyond doubt that bitcoin is volatile if nothing else.

The Spectrum Of Predictions Is Wide

Without touching on any specific advice from high profile people in the cryptocurrency and financial investment worlds, it’s important to point out that the spectrum of predictions for 2018 and beyond has been wide. Some would have you believe bitcoin is about to crash to the point that it’s essentially worthless; others see 2017 as nothing but a tease for far greater climbs to come. Seeking advice on this sort of thing is important, but be careful not to buy into the most outlandish predictions you see in either direction just yet, because there is bound to be a credible expert making the exact opposite prediction.

The Wallet You Choose Is Important

For those who haven’t bought bitcoin before, the idea of a wallet might seem like a secondary concern. In fact, it’s an extremely important aspect of the process. Bitcoin wallets store the digital keys you use to access your store of bitcoin online (because there’s no such thing as actually possessing physical bitcoins). It helps to think of them as bank accounts or investment portfolios full of cryptocurrency. These wallets come in five forms, and analyzing those forms (desktop, mobile, web, hardware, and paper) is as important as analyzing when to buy and sell. The different types of wallets offer different security perks, different levels of convenience and ease of use, and in some cases different fees for transactions.

Regulatory News Matters

People who are looking into investments like to research the different things that might influence what happens to those investments. It’s the only appropriate way to approach things, but it’s particularly tricky where bitcoin is concerned. Because cryptocurrency is new and to some degree experimental – not to mention fully digital and fully decentralized – it would almost seem to be free from influence. What we’re learning more and more, however, is that regulatory news matters. Bitcoin is for the most part not regulated around the world, but when news breaks of a major economy (such as Japan, recently) trying to restrict bitcoin in any way, prices can drop. It’s just something to keep in mind.

Bitcoin Has No Comparison

People seem to be very eager to compare bitcoin to other lucrative commodities from the past – most typically oil and gold. However, comparisons like these tend to be simplistic and ignore the reality that bitcoin is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. As The Telegraph put it bluntly, bitcoin is not the new gold despite its “glittering” run to close out 2017. Oil has a practical use, and gold is a tangible resource that has literally been used to back currency. Bitcoin, by contrast, is entirely made up, with its value backed by little more than its own potential. It’s a brand new concept, and one without a comparison – for better or worse.

Key Tips On How to Avoid Business Litigation

Facing business litigation can be expensive and stressful. It also can significantly impact your productivity. In fact, the potential costs including the attorney’s fees, court fees, and other related fees can be excessively higher than you expect. That’s why as business owners, part of your responsibilities is to ensure that your business is running smoothly without the possibility of getting involved in a lawsuit. Following are some Key Tips On How to Avoid Business Litigation:

Key Tips On How to Avoid Business Litigation

  1. Hire A Company Lawyer: Running your own business means regularly going over several legal considerations.
  • Getting a company attorney can help you operate your business in a legal sense. With all the legalities associated with managing a business, your attorney can advise you on what to do in certain situations.
  • For instance, if you’re dealing with business contracts, you can have these documents reviewed first by your lawyer before signing them. That way, you can be sure that your attorney is protecting your business interests at all times.
  • When you have the right lawyer for your company, you’ll also know how to handle your business in such a way that you’ll avoid litigations in the future.
  • However, looking for the appropriate attorney may not be easy. As a business owner, it’s best if you consider the attorney’s familiarity with the local customs and laws of the business you operate. Make sure to get a lawyer who has expertise in a particular field of law. Try to inquire about their years of experience in handling business litigations in the past. Doing so will help you determine the appropriateness of the attorney in your business.
  1. Maintain A Good Employer-Employee Relationship: In some cases, business litigations involve unresolved disputes regarding employers and employees.
  • Remember employees initiate most business litigations and terminated by their employers without due process. For that reason alone, there’s no doubt that your employees can bring severe problems to your business.
  • If you want to prevent litigations brought by your employees, make sure to treat them with dignity and respect. Give them what’s due for them, and they’ll surely work for you correctly.
  • Although you hire them to work for your business, managing them properly can improve your employer and employee relationship in the long run.
  • As much as possible, try to look for resources wherein you can provide staff training to your employees. The practices can be expensive, but these can also be considered as quality business investments because you’re giving your employees opportunities to enhance their skills and capabilities.
  • Training your staff well can decrease the likelihood of having problems with them in the future. When you have trustworthy employees working for your business, possible business litigation won’t likely happen.

More Key Tips On How to Avoid Business Litigation

  1. Preserve Records Of Everything: When you’re operating a business, documentation plays a vital role.
  • Take note that documents are essential to business operations, that’s why these shouldn’t be taken for granted. These records serve several purposes, and one of which is to bring these documents in court as pieces of evidence when you’re business is facing litigation.
  • In these type of situations, keeping records of everything can save your business from being sued in court. In fact, many disputes can be prevented when you’re able to present essential documents as quickly as possible.
  • That’s why you should make sure that you preserve your business records with utmost security. These materials may include business and employment contracts, correspondence and even telephone conversations and emails. If possible, take time to review your record retention policy is in place to ensure that all records about business operations are well-kept.
  1. Provide Exceptional Service: A business providing exceptional service to customers, business partners and suppliers can prevent you from facing potential business litigation.
  • When you know how to make your clients happy and satisfied at all times, you’ll unlikely find your business in litigation.
  • For instance, litigation will not occur if you actively communicate with your customers, business partners, and suppliers. Having an approachable team of customer service representatives can help your business address and resolve issues with your clients and vendors.
  • If you’re concerned about your business having a lawsuit against it, make sure that you don’t take any dispute for granted.

More Key Tips On How to Avoid Business Litigation

  1. Resolve Disputes Internally: There are instances where disputes arise within your business. It’s true; especially you have different people helping you in handling your operations. However, these circumstances can affect your business performance.
  • Disputes most likely happen when people freely express their various opinions and views on things.
  • Bear in mind that it’s important to resolve these conflicts as soon as possible within your means before they convert into a business litigation, which is a costly and time-consuming way of settling disputes.
  • In solving a dispute internally, it’s best if you conduct it in the presence of your company lawyer to ensure that you follow the legal procedures in dispute settlement.
  1. Provide Exceptional Service: A business providing exceptional service to customers, business partners and suppliers can prevent you from facing potential business litigation.
  • When you know how to make your clients happy and satisfied at all times, you’ll unlikely find your business in litigation.
  • For instance, litigation will not occur if you actively communicate with your customers, business partners, and suppliers. Having an approachable team of customer service representatives can help your business address and resolve issues with your clients and vendors.
  • If you’re concerned about your business having a lawsuit against it, make sure that you don’t take any dispute for granted.

There are several ways on how to avoid business litigation. Consider these tips, and they’ll eventually benefit your business in the long run. If you find speaking to an attorney helpful in this kind of situation, do it now. Bear in mind that your business’ continuity is assured when you’re mindful of the things you do.

Disclaimer: This content should only be used as general information about the key tips on how to avoid business litigation. It shouldn’t however, be taken as specific legal advice regarding the subject matter. If you want appropriate legal advice for your situation, seek for the services of a licensed attorney who specializes in business litigations.

Irene Wall

Irene Wall has been writing about law for more than a decade. She writes pieces on various law topics that she hopes could help the common reader with their concerns. She enjoys playing basketball with her sons during her free time

We Have Seen This Before

We Have Seen This Before

We Have Seen This Before

We Have Seen This Before! The Fuse on the Subprime 2.0 Debt Bomb is About to Ignite, says Graham Summers, Chief Market Strategist Phoenix Capital Research:

The Subprime 2.0 story is now gaining traction in the financial media.

By way of brief review, here is the template for Subprime 1.0 (the mortgage meltdown).

1)   Banks, hungry for profits, began issuing mortgages to sub-prime borrowers (people who couldn’t possibly pay the loans back).

2)   Housing prices and sales began to fall.

3)   Subprime borrowers began defaulting on their mortgage.

4)   Subprime mortgage lenders began to collapse.

5)   A crisis unfolds as the issue spreads throughout the banks.

Subprime 2.0 is following the exact same pattern. Just replace the words “housing” with “automobiles” and “mortgages” with “auto-loans.” As the Wall Street Journal  notes…

We Have Seen This Before! Banks Pull Back on Car Loans as Used-Auto Prices Plummet

Car loans have been among the fastest growing consumer lending categories since the last recession. Banks and other lenders began increasing originations about seven years ago in search of more revenue as the mortgage market slumped.

As competition intensified, lenders loosened underwriting standards by courting borrowers with lower credit scores and extending repayment periods on loans. Small nonbank lenders also jumped in, relying on the bond market as an outlet to sell their loans.

But increasing losses have sapped some banks’ enthusiasm. Annualized net losses on securitized subprime auto loans increased to more than 10% late last year, the highest level since February 2009, according to Fitch Ratings. The figure slipped back to 9% in March, but that was the highest loss reading for that month since at least 2001.

Source: WSJ

In terms of the above template Subprime Template, we’re currently at #3 and on our way to #4.

All we need now is some auto-lenders to start blowing up, and the fuse on the Subprime 2.0 Debt Bomb will have been lit.

Keep an eye on Ally Financial (ALLY) and Capital One (COF). Both have large auto-loan exposure.

When Subprime 2.0 ignites the markets will move into crisis mode.


Useless Advice

Useless Advice

Useless Advice

To see how misleading the Fed’s interest rate hike projections have been in recent years, have a look at the chart below.
As you can see, projected interest rate hikes compared to actual rate hikes differ drastically.

I don’t know what’s worse… the Fed’s forward guidance track record or the people who actually trade on that guidance.

Yet there I was on Wednesday night watching a Harvard-educated “analyst” on Fox News telling “Special Report” anchor Brett Baier that the most important thing investors needed to be concerned with was the Fed’s plan to raise rates three times in 2017.

That’s utterly worthless advice.

Hold on. I am being kind.

That’s moronic advice.

The data clearly shows that the Fed doesn’t do what is says it’s going to do.

Look, does anyone not sniffing bath salts believe the Fed is going to continue raising rates on schedule if the U.S. stock market craters… or if Europe implodes… or if China’s credit bubble bursts?

Please.

There are countless Fed “variables” it will use to justify altering its plan… as it has in years past.

The bottom line is the only thing of value we learned from the Fed this week is they raised rates on Wednesday.

That’s it.

What it does in 2017 has no relation to its stated projections, just as was the case in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Worrying about the implications of the Fed’s rate hike timetable is a time-sucking charade designed to bleed you dry. The Fed and the media are never on your side.

Focus on the only truth you know, and that is the price action of all markets.

Let the price action dictate your actions, your buys and sells. That’s what winners do.

Please send me your comments to coveluncensored@agorafinancial.com. Let me know what you think of today’s issue.

Regards,

Michael Covel
Editor, Covel Uncensored

The Fed’s “Debt Monster” Is Calling the Shots

The Fed’s “Debt Monster”

Bill Bonner calls our attention to the danger:

You know our prediction: The Fed will never willingly lead interest rates to a neutral position.

It can’t. The FED  has created a debt monster. It must feed this Frankenstein with easy credit.

This time last year, the Fed began its “rate-tightening cycle.” That is, it began raising short-term interest rates.

It pledged to continue to do so in 2016. But then it diddled and dawdled, fiddled and fawdled… claiming to be on top of the situation… watching its “data” come in like a fisherman’s wife waiting for the return of the fleet… and not wanting to admit she was already a widow.

What it was really waiting for was a place to hide.

The Fed can raise short-term rates. But it will have to follow, not lead. It will have to hide in the shadow of rising consumer prices, staying “behind the curve” of inflation expectations.

That way, the expected real interest rate – the rate of return on your money above the rate of consumer price inflation – never really returns to neutral.

Already, the price of a barrel of crude oil – a key input into prices across the economy – is twice what it was 10 months ago. Leading business-cycle research firm the Economic Cycle Research Institute says the inflation cycle has turned positive.

And already, foreign nations are talking about retaliating against Team Trump by canceling orders and imposing new tariffs in their own versions of “better trade deals.”

This, too, is bound to raise prices.

Forget speculating on stocks, options, or other risky, low-probability moneymaking schemes. This wealth-building formula is the most reliable way to make seven figures in seven years or less in today’s uncertain economy…

Funny Money Antics

But if consumer price inflation were really a concern, the bond market would race ahead of the Fed, imposing its own regimen of rising yields.

The Fed’s increases would be too little and too late to have any real effect on the outcome.

Bondholders don’t care much about nominal rates. If consumer price inflation were to rise to the Fed’s 2% target, for example, bondholders might clamor for a 4% yield to give them a positive 2%.

That is a big increase over the 52-week low of 1.32% the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit on July 4.

But you don’t get that kind of seismic shift without cracking some flower pots.

Much of the world’s $225 trillion in debt is calibrated to borrowers who will have a hard time surviving a 3% interest rate world, let alone a 4% one.

This is an economy that can stand a lot of grotesque and absurd “funny money” antics. It can survive a bizarre financial world; it can’t survive a normal one.

As inflation expectations increase, investors do not sit still and watch their retirements, their savings, and their fortunes get broken by inflation.

They don’t wait for the Fed’s policy-setting committee to meet. They don’t reflect calmly as the Fed’s wonks collect their “data” and create their “dot plots.”

Instead, they act out. The monster gets mad and starts throwing things.

First through the window are the bonds. They get chucked out before inflation manifests itself fully… and long before the Fed increases its key short-term rate.

Then, the “boom” turns quickly into stagflation… as higher borrowing costs pinch off growth even as consumer prices continue to rise.

But more likely, inflation is not really surging… Not yet.

And most likely, it will be the painfully apparent when the U.S. economy goes into recession next year.

Then, it will be stocks’ turn to get tossed out, while bonds sneak back in through the side door.

It will also be apparent that the Fed has taken another false step… that the recovery was a sham… and that it’s the debt monster calling the shots, not Janet Yellen.

Regards,

Bill Bonner

The Retirement Savings Crisis: What Will Fix It?

The Retirement Savings Crisis: What Will Fix It?

The Retirement Savings Crisis: What Will Fix It?

The numbers are staggering. An astounding $14 trillion retirement crisis is looming for millions of Americans. Nearly a third of the workforce does not own a single retirement account – not a 401(k), not an individual retirement account (IRA). Of those who do own a retirement account, the median account balance is a mere $3,000. Rising costs, longer lives and the very human tendency to not worry about it because it’ll all turn out OK in the end is driving the numbers. There are ways to fix the retirement savings crisis before it’s too late. Here’s how.

No Retirement Plan? Get One

If you think your Social Security check will be enough to live on during retirement, think again. The Social Security board of trustees anticipates that by the year 2035, all excess cash reserves will be gone. Benefits could be cut as well. Even if neither of these events occur, Social Security benefits will barely touch your living expenses. You need more.

If you don’t participate in an employer-sponsored IRA or 401(k)plan, sign up if your company offers one. You have to start somewhere and automatic contributions are a great way to do just that.

Consult a Professional Retirement Planner – Now

One 401(k) or IRA is not enough to live a comfortable retirement. Investment portfolio management, retirement savings management and strategy development are all services a professional provides to help you achieve your financial goals. A professional looks at where you are now, what you have to do to live a comfortable retirement and develops a plan to get you there. Professionals recommend the investments that work best for you, no matter what your age or financial picture. A retirement manager creates a customized solution that may include mutual funds, ETFs, annuities and other types of investments. If you’re older and starting to save late in the game, you may be reluctant to seek the help of a professional. You may feel embarrassed or ashamed, but there’s no need. Retirement planners are there to help and many have successfully helped clients in your situation – or, at least the financial planner you work with should be experienced in helping others in your situation. In fact, if you’re starting late, you need the expert advice a professional retirement planner brings to the table.

Living Longer Means Working Longer

One of the biggest reasons for the retirement savings crisis is the longer and overall healthier lives of today’s population. The amount of savings needed now far outpaces what used to be the norm. What’s a great way to improve your own retirement outlook? By working longer. There are potential problems with working harder, however. Economist David Neumark’s research indicates that employers tend to discriminate against older workers. And, there’s the problem of health issues as people age. Still, if at all possible, working longer ensures a more comfortable retirement when the time comes.

Don’t Wait

It’s much easier to do nothing and hope it all comes together in the end. But, the longer you put off, the less you’ll have later on. If you take steps now to increase your savings and reduce spending, you can avoid becoming part of the retirement savings crisis.

Gabby Revel, Founder, writer, editor & administrator at Fertile Content, is a freelance writer who specializes in lifestyle topics, as well as science and technology, investing, and personal finance. She also has a passion for adorable dogs of all kinds. She currently lives in the San Francisco Bay Area.

What does the new frontier of negative interest rates in the global arena mean for investors?

What does the new frontier of negative interest rates in the global arena mean for investors?

What does the new frontier of negative interest rates in the global arena mean for investors?

 

Cindy Yeap / The Edge Malaysia discusses “What does the new frontier of negative interest rates in the global arena mean for investors?”

“For RHB Research Institute executive chairman and chief economist Lim Chee Sing, NIRP “can only be seen as a temporary expedient to hold up financial markets”, albeit one that has little room to push for more economic growth in this relatively mature stage of the growth cycle.

“That means rising investment premiums and heightened market volatility will likely be the order of the day in the days ahead. Portfolio investors may have no choice but to build some degree of defensiveness into their portfolios to balance out the risks. This implies rising appetite for high-yield stocks,” Lim says.

“Even dividend stocks have caveats in the days ahead, largely due to their rich valuations vis-à-vis tougher conditions to grow at the same rate as before. For example, sin stocks might have to contend with higher taxes; the fees for telecommunications spectrum refarming have yet to be revealed; and consumer stocks have to contend with the possibility of a further tightening of consumer spending. Then, there is the higher labour cost.

“The focus should be on stocks with an improved business model, reasonable earnings visibility, strong cash flow, a dividend policy and, thus, sustainable dividend payments. Of course, one cannot ignore valuations but rich valuation stocks are still susceptible to a selldown should the global economy take a turn for the worse,” Lim adds.

“Gerald Ambrose, CEO of Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd, too, noted expensive valuations after a good run in recent years.

“We are keeping a close eye on notable high-yield companies, like the cellular phone companies, the brewers, tobacco companies and the REITs (real estate investment trusts). We’re currently about halfway though the 4Q2015 results season and to be honest, a lot of the better-managed companies have been able to find efficiencies to enable dividend payout to remain high. However, after outperforming for over a year, a lot of the high dividend yield companies are hardly cheap,” he says.”

BOTTOM LINE: Focus your strategy on yield and gold. Gold is an alternative when interest rates are negative adjusted for taxes and inflation.

The Difference Between a Good Analyst and a Great Analyst

I came across this piece from Quandl and it got me thinking about about politics and experts and analysts. Quandl is a data site that offers information on thousands of stocks, with historical data going back decades and futures data to help you forecast trends. They created this graphic to help novice analysts get ahead in the industry.
the Difference Between a Good and a Great Analyst

I love to talk politics. My dad and I conversed and analysed and argued about the Vietnam War and every other thing that was worth discussing. Sometimes they were heated. College was a disappointment. I thought there were would be more conversations in depth much like the ones between dad and me. Sadly, that only occurred in the classroom … infrequently. In my adult life, once in a while there is a conversation I look back on with fondness. Those conversations  with new friends or in depth conversations over a fine dinner. Today, it is hard to have conversations when each participant is holding on to biases and attaching their ego to those opinions.

I want to have conversations with great analysts.

When I was a broker, I made the most money for my clients when I could analyse the facts, and draw conclusions from those facts that were outside the norm. If you saw The Big Short you saw great analysts reach conclusions that were farseeing. The consequences of their conclusions were far reaching.made them huge piles of money.

It is one thing to develop a story about the future of Germany or Cuba if you are a citizen, another thing altogether to draw the conclusion that being Jewish in Germany is existential; it is another thing to be Cuban and realize that the door to Spain is the only escape and it will close soon.

To stand in a place and observe that a country that spends more than it takes in and builds up debt to the point that they can barely pay the interest is a good analyst. To be a great analyst it takes courage to conclude that this cannot stand and it’s time to leave.

Great analysts tell stories that are believable and motivate others to take action. Strive to become a great analyst.

Copyright © 2007 Mover Mike. Design by Anthony Baggett.


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