Entries Tagged as 'Education'

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The Difference Between a Good Analyst and a Great Analyst

I came across this piece from Quandl and it got me thinking about about politics and experts and analysts. Quandl is a data site that offers information on thousands of stocks, with historical data going back decades and futures data to help you forecast trends. They created this graphic to help novice analysts get ahead in the industry.
the Difference Between a Good and a Great Analyst

I love to talk politics. My dad and I conversed and analysed and argued about the Vietnam War and every other thing that was worth discussing. Sometimes they were heated. College was a disappointment. I thought there were would be more conversations in depth much like the ones between dad and me. Sadly, that only occurred in the classroom … infrequently. In my adult life, once in a while there is a conversation I look back on with fondness. Those conversations  with new friends or in depth conversations over a fine dinner. Today, it is hard to have conversations when each participant is holding on to biases and attaching their ego to those opinions.

I want to have conversations with great analysts.

When I was a broker, I made the most money for my clients when I could analyse the facts, and draw conclusions from those facts that were outside the norm. If you saw The Big Short you saw great analysts reach conclusions that were farseeing. The consequences of their conclusions were far reaching.made them huge piles of money.

It is one thing to develop a story about the future of Germany or Cuba if you are a citizen, another thing altogether to draw the conclusion that being Jewish in Germany is existential; it is another thing to be Cuban and realize that the door to Spain is the only escape and it will close soon.

To stand in a place and observe that a country that spends more than it takes in and builds up debt to the point that they can barely pay the interest is a good analyst. To be a great analyst it takes courage to conclude that this cannot stand and it’s time to leave.

Great analysts tell stories that are believable and motivate others to take action. Strive to become a great analyst.

I Wanted the Freedom

Mike Landfair freelance writer

Retirement

I started working at 15 years old, because my parents couldn’t afford the clothes I wanted to wear and I wanted the freedom my own money would bring. I started working  as a stock boy at Thom McAn shoes and then graduated to selling shoes. One summer while in college I sold shoes at Thom McAn, JC Penny and Nordstrom’s. I don’t recall saving any money for college, although my parents said I did. I spent all my money, as the song goes, on booze and women. The rest I just wasted.

The best thing I did was get a college education, Back then a private school cost about $5,000 a year including room and board, tuition and books. Public University was about $100 to $ 300 a term, if memory serves. I gave no thought to retirement what so ever.

I got married, got a job as a stock broker, bought a house and had kids. That was all the motivation I needed to be successful. If you were 30 and earned your age, you were doing well. This was the early 1970s. As I recall, to be in debt was the American way. We knew we would earn more money the next year than we did the past year.

There didn’t seem to be any worry about retirement. Companies had retirement plans. They offered were defined benefit plans with vesting and profit-sharing plans. There were no IRAs. There were Keogh plans for the self-employed like CPAs, doctors and dentists. Most of us continued to pile up debt, buying bigger houses and more expensive cars and toys and vacations. I don’t recall hearing about home equity loans. Only when I got a divorce after 17 years of marriage, did debt become a problem. I was still earning good money, but the cost of two households and child care was a giant burden.

Sometime in the 1980s, I learned about compound interest. Einstein called compound interest the ninth wonder of the world.

Here’s an illustration of how compound interest works. Suppose at 19 years old you invested $2,000 each year for seven years into an IRA. You put in $14,000 and then never invested in that IRA again. Then suppose your best friend waited until he was 26 and started putting $2,000 every year until he was 65. That would be 40 years and $80,000. Each received a 10% compounded return (meaning that each year you get interest on last year’s interest).

In the year when they were 65 they sat down and compared nest eggs. The friend who invested $2,000 a year until 65, had a nice retirement nest egg of $893,704. The smart kid who stated at 19, invested for seven years and quit, had a retirement nest egg of $930,641.

Here’s what I wished I had done with my money.

I wish had utilized compound interest to get rich in real estate. Suppose you buy a house for $300,000 and put down $30,000. At 7% the house doubles to $600,000. Assuming you didn’t take out a bunch of home equity loans to buy toys, your equity in your home would be $330,000, an eleven-fold increase not counting any reduction in your mortgage.

If it was a rental, and I’d used the income to pay down the mortgage, I could have paid down the mortgage rapidly and bought another rental and so on. I could have retired with rentals throwing off income. Hopefully the property would have appreciated.

One thing I don’t do is look back and say, “If only I’d a. If only I’d a bought Microsoft at $50 in the IPO. The decisions I made got me here to San Miguel de Allende as an expat, retired, writing as a freelance writer, loving a foreign country, happily married for 23 years, wonderful girls and two wonderful grand kids. I could be wealthier, but I could be poorer, too. One thing I’ve learned is to be grateful for whatever I have and value my health. Do things in moderation and don’t put poisons in your body; that includes your mind, too.

Personal Capital has a free net worth tool that can bring all of your accounts together in one place so you can monitor your income, spending, and investments on a single, easy-to-read screen. Once you have linked all your accounts, you can use their tools to manage every aspect of your finances.

To The Point News Scores with This Opinion

Written by Jack Kelly
Friday, 01 May 2015

“I think we, as a country, have to do some soul searching” about the rioting in Baltimore, President Barack Obama said Tuesday (4/28).

Bunk. “We, as a country” are not to blame.

First and foremost, blame resides with the racist thugs who looted stores, burned buildings and automobiles, assaulted police officers, shopkeepers, and white people who crossed their path.

Next in order of culpability are the politicians whose belated and timid response allowed the thugs to run amok. The conduct of Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has been especially appalling.

When violence broke out April 25, city officials protected those who protested peacefully the death in police custody of drug dealer Freddie Gray, the mayor said, “and we also gave those who wish to destroy space to do that as well.”

Since a political gaffe is defined as “unintentionally telling the truth,” I doubt that was what she meant to say. But when rioting broke out again Monday night (4/27), Ms. Rawlings-Blake ordered the police to stand down, a “senior law enforcement source” told Fox News.

Shopkeepers recounted how call after call to the police for help went unanswered.

How Mr. Gray suffered a severe spinal injury shortly after his arrest is not yet clear.

If police are responsible – two witnesses say they may not be — it isn’t likely racism was a motive. Baltimore’s police chief is black. So are 48 percent of Baltimore police officers.

Ms. Rawlings-Blake didn’t ask Gov. Larry Hogan for help from the National Guard until 6 p.m. Monday – three hours after he’d urged her to ask for it. She announced a curfew that afternoon, but (bizarrely) delayed imposing it until Tuesday night.

Dozens of businesses were looted, 19 buildings – including a senior center and a drug store — were burned down, 24 police officers and others injured before the curfew was imposed. Much of that could have been prevented if Ms. Rawlings-Blake hadn’t been so grossly negligent.

Those who make excuses for the rioters – and for the public officials who failed in their duty to protect their victims – also deserve a substantial share of blame. By apologizing for calling the thugs “thugs,” Ms. Rawlings-Blake demonstrated anew her unfitness for office.

“The system” failed the poor blacks of west Baltimore, said many of the talking (and mostly empty) heads on cable tv. There’s some truth to that. Crime and unemployment are sky high. Schools are awful. Social service agency chieftains do more to promote their own welfare than that of the community.

Ms. Rawlings-Blake is a Democrat. So are all 15 members of the city council. Baltimore hasn’t had a Republican mayor for 48 years, since Theodore McKeldin left office in 1967. Maryland has had just two Republican governors since 1969. Democrats have controlled both houses of the legislature since 1992. “The system” that has failed poor blacks in Baltimore was designed, and is administered, exclusively by Democrats.

Ms. Rawlings-Blake is black. So is the president of the City Council, a majority of its members, and the States Attorney. Blacks in Baltimore aren’t oppressed by The Man. In Baltimore, politically connected left wing Democrat blacks are The Man.

Those – especially those in journalism – who claim white racism is the root cause of the rioting, or make excuses for the rioters, have much to answer for.

Democrats fan racism among blacks to keep their stranglehold on the black vote, said radio talk show host Larry Elder, who is black. Tell people they are victims, and they’ll act like victims, he said.

Former Rep. Allen West, R-FL, who is black, said “a culture of dependency as promulgated by the race baiters and new plantation overseers of the inner city,” is chiefly to blame.

Failed liberal policies have “mired black people in generational poverty, kept their kids in failing schools, chronically unemployed, they can’t find meaningful work, having to live in crime-infested neighborhoods,” said Milwaukee County (Wis) Sheriff David Clarke, a Democrat who is black.

To change things, blacks must stop voting for the politicians and policies which have failed them, said Mr. Elder, Mr. West and Sheriff Clarke. And Democrats must accept their responsibility for their failures. You know what will freeze over before that happens.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret, and the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force during the Reagan Administration. He is the national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

The Truth Rarely Gets Spoken

Orioles Executive Vice President John Angelos, son of majority owner Peter Angelos had this to say about the riots in Baltimore: The Truth Rarely Gets Spoken

“Brett, speaking only for myself, I agree with your point that the principle of peaceful, non-violent protest and the observance of the rule of law is of utmost importance in any society. MLK, Gandhi, Mandela, and all great opposition leaders throughout history have always preached this precept. Further, it is critical that in any democracy investigation must be completed and due process must be honored before any government or police members are judged responsible.

That said, my greater source of personal concern, outrage and sympathy beyond this particular case is focused neither upon one night’s property damage nor upon the acts, but is focused rather upon the past four-decade period during which an American political elite have shipped middle class and working class jobs away from Baltimore and cities and towns around the U.S. to third-world dictatorships like China and others, plunged tens of millions of good hard-working Americans into economic devastation, and then followed that action around the nation by diminishing every American’s civil rights protections in order to control an unfairly impoverished population living under an ever-declining standard of living and suffering at the butt end of an ever-more militarized and aggressive surveillance state.

The innocent working families of all backgrounds whose lives and dreams have been cut short by excessive violence, surveillance, and other abuses of the Bill of Rights by government pay the true price, an ultimate price, and one that far exceeds the importance of any kids’ game played tonight, or ever, at Camden Yards. We need to keep in mind people are suffering and dying around the U.S., and while we are thankful no one was injured at Camden Yards, there is a far bigger picture for poor Americans in Baltimore and everywhere who don’t have jobs and are losing economic civil and legal rights, and this makes inconvenience at a ball game irrelevant in light of the needless suffering government is inflicting upon ordinary Americans.”

OBAMA’S PLAN FOR A FASCIST AMERICA

Dr. Jack Wheeler
Behind The Lines
Friday, 13 March 2015

Americans are welcome now in Vietnam, where so many people speak English because it’s required to learn it in school as a second language. Vietnamese have embraced capitalism with a vengeance, even while they are ruled by the same Commie Party we fought in the 60s, the Hammer & Sickle flies everywhere and Ho Chi Minh is pictured on their currency.

The days of America being Hanoi’s enemy are long gone. China is the enemy today as it has been for over two thousand years of Vietnamese history, against which Hanoi needs America as an ally. The tides of history ebb and flow. America’s greatest enemy today is not external but within.

A far more mortal danger to our country than Putin Russia, Chicom China, or Reconquista Mexico is a Hate America White House with the clear goal of creating a Fascist America.

Government control of all of our major institutions and industries is taking place right before our eyes in broad daylight. If we have any chance of reversing it, we must begin by identifying exactly what is going on. The first step is to call what is going on by its accurate name: fascism.

The Left loves to use the term as a pejorative sneer for anything lefties don’t like. But as an economic theory it has a specific meaning.

Socialism is government ownership of businesses and industries, with everyone in the economy – workers, managers, executives – being an employee of the State. In Castro’s Cuba until recently, even shoeshine boys had to belong to a state cooperative.

Fascism, by contrast and far more dishonestly, is government control of ostensibly private business and industry, the owners and executives of which can do nothing without bureaucratic regulatory approval. This is the economy Zero is determined to achieve. He is doing so with astonishing rapidity – and with Chicago gangsterism and corrupt thuggishness, hallmarks of any fascist regime.

So rapid and thuggishly thorough it leaves the Marxist agenda of the Frankfurt School’s “march through the institutions” – both economic and cultural – of the 20th century in the dust. It is a 21st century blitzkrieg of fascism. Let’s itemize it.

*Healthcare. This is the most obvious. Obamacare is a fascist federal takeover of the entire scope of health and medical care in the US, from insurance to hospitals to physicians.

*Banking. Less obvious is the extent to which the Dodd-Frank Act, named after two of the most corrupt crooks ever in Congress, gives federal regulators unlimited arbitrary control over the entire banking industry in the US.

*Communications. The recent ruling of the FCC now makes the Internet a federally regulated utility, giving Zero’s bureaucrats unlimited power for stifling innovation, competition, and websites they disapprove of. Add to this, of course, Zero’s NSA that has unlimited power to spy on the private communications of all Americans.

*Energy. The excuse of imaginary man-made global warming as a rationale for Climate Fascism to control energy production has so far failed – thanks to fracking and global cooling. But not for lack of trying, as climate fascists become ever more hysterical in their demands and hatred for anyone who denies their lies.

*Education. Common Core is the Department of Education’s takeover of local and state education on steroids. There is no constitutional authority for the very existence of the federal Education Department, much less its Anti-American history propaganda of Common Core or Mrs. Zero’s fascist school lunch starvation program.

*Defense. The combination of the homosexualization of the military, massive defense cuts, and the promotion of officers who are merely politically correct bureaucrats in uniform is reducing the Pentagon to Zero’s Poodle.

Add to this the treating allies like Israel with contempt, the refusal to defend America from Moslem barbarianism, and helping Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

*Family and Culture. Homofascism, same-sex “marriage” now morphing to homopolygamy, the unceasing attempts to racially divide America and demonize whites as racist (witness Zero’s latest: “Slaves built the White House”).

*Economy and Unemployment. Crony capitalism, mass unemployment and disability payments to gain mass dependency on government welfare. People dependent on you vote for you.

*Justice and the Rule of Law. Two words define the most corrupt federal justice system in US history: Eric Holder. Add to this Zero’s blizzard of unconstitutional edicts (Executive Orders and Memorandums), and the blackmailing of Chief Justice John Roberts (and how many other judges?) to rule as demanded.

*Democracy. The purpose of Zero’s Amnesty for millions of illegal aliens is to enable them to illegally vote to place Democrats in permanent power.

Put this all together, and you see it is a fully comprehensive across-the-board plan to create a Fascist America. The only way to stop it is to start pulling it out by the roots.

E.g., Dodd-Frank and Obamacare must be repealed, FCC net neutrality reversed, every Zero EO undone, the EPA and the Department of Education must be fully defunded and eliminated, no welfare of any kind for illegals… the list of what must be done is very long.

None of this can be done, however, without achieving the first priority: explaining exactly why Zero is a fascist, why Dems are fascist, why the Left is fascist – and refusing to support, donate money to or vote for any Pub politician who won’t do so.

Zero, the Dems, the Left’s Grievance Industry, and their propagandists pretending to call themselves “journalists” have got to be put on the defensive. They have to be labeled for what they in fact are: fascists advocating smothering (and unconstitutional) national government control over every major business and institution in America.

Thus the most critical issue of our day is Freedom vs. Fascism. The 2016 contest for Congress and the White House must be framed in this context.

“Are you for freedom or are you for fascism?” is the question to ask any politician. “Are you for liberating America’s businesses and institutions from Obama’s fascist controls or not?”

Freedom in America is dying, but it is not dead yet. It can still be rescued and revived – but not unless we correctly diagnose what is killing it. Only then can radical surgery be performed to remove the cancerous tumor of Obama Fascism causing its impending demise.

Exposing Obama’s Plan for a Fascist America is where we must start. Let’s get started.

From To The Point News

Two Buddies

 

Laugh it up boys!

Laugh it up boys!

The mandate from the 2014 election doesn’t matter as long as these two are buddies.


“We Are Ruining A Nation!”

Are these kids the same type of kids we see rioting in Ferguson?

Theodora Mautz, a Lincoln High senior, Scores Big

Theodora Mautz, a Lincoln High senior

Lincoln High student Theodora Mautz, whose intellectual curiosity makes her an outstanding student in fields from science to music to law, scored the top possible score on both the ACT and the SAT college entrance exams, an apparent first in Oregon. (Lorijo Daniels / Lorijo Daniels Photography )

 

Tales from the Yellow Bus has been all but retired, since I no longer drive the big buses. I just had to comment about a former student who made the news this month.

Theodora Mautz, a Lincoln High senior with parents from Pendleton and Beijing, achieved perfect scores on both the ACT and SAT college entrance tests this year, an apparent first in Oregon.

I always looked forward to seeing Theodora in the morning, always cheerful, sometimes rushed, very accomplished. She had a interesting homelife and frequent trips to China. I miss seeing her and wish her all the best as a freshwoman in college.

 

Does Obama Live In Disneyland?

In a talk with from Tumblr users at the White House on Wednesday, Obama said 

“I mean, the truth of the matter is that for all the challenges we face, all the problems that we have, if you had to be — if you had to choose any moment to be born in human history, not knowing what your position was going to be, who you were going to be, you’d choose this time. The world is less violent than it has ever been. It is healthier than it has ever been. It is more tolerant than it has ever been. It is better fed then it’s ever been. It is more educated than it’s ever been.”(emphasis added)

Most would disagree. Practically every country is at war with some other country, and it feels like we are on the edge of World War III. The whole middle east could blow up at any time. Iran is at the doorstep of nuclear weapons. The U.S. is meddling in the Ukraine. Japan and China are at loggerheads. We have Russian bombers flying 50 miles off the California coast and any day we could have an EMP attack that would indirectly kill 100 million Americans. Then there’s our southern border…don’t get me started.

This is the first time in our history that one generation will not live better than their parents. And as far as better fed, we have 47 million Americans that are dependent on the government for food.

Please!

 

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