Oil companies start to shut GOM operations in preparation for hurricane Ida. Currently packing winds of 105 mph, Mobile. Alabama may be target for landfall sometime on Tuesday morning.
Ida “could be a mildly bullish event” if production gets shut in, said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “The market doesn’t have the same sensitivity to supply-side issues that it did a couple of years ago.”
We may get a little blase about hurricanes as we go through the season. but if Ike reaches the expected Category three, damage estimates will run in the $25 to $30 Billion range. Already waves have been recorded in the oil fields of 50 feet high. Storm surge is another big issue
StormW at Weather Underground reports,
For a storm hitting the coast from SE to NW:
13-14 FT SURGE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST…along the barrier islands…and 19-22 ft further inland, especially around inland bays. Again…could reach 3-6 ft higher if he is stronger.
The Oil Drum reports,
Within the current NHC storm path lies about 5-6 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (Perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL). Also, the (Minerals Management Service) MMS reported Wednesday that staff has been evacuated from 452 production platforms (63.0%) and 81 rigs (66.9%) – (95.9% of the oil production and 73.1% of the natural gas production has been shut-in as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Ike.)
I asked my friend T. Fraser Stern in Houston “How you faring down there? Are you in danger. Will you have to evacuate?” He wrote back:
We live on the far north side of Houston, about 70 miles inland from the Gulf where a storm surge is the biggest danger; expected to be 12-16 feet above normal. Right now we are as ready as we can be, all the lawn furniture and wind chimes have been put away, lots of drinking water and food stores and we have a generator to keep the freezer cold. We are expecting strong winds and plenty of rain;
If you pray, send your prayers out to all that may be in harms way.
BTW, Oil traded at $100 a barrel today. Mytarget was $100 to $105. Oil has now dropped about 32%!
Ike became a hurricane and currently sports maximum sustained winds of 135, a Category 4! See track
Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog states:
The longer term fate of Ike remains uncertain–as usual. The three long-range models (ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS) all forecast Ike will recurve on Tuesday. This recurvature will happen between South Florida and the central Bahama Islands, taking Ike out to sea or very near the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The timing and strength of trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike north is uncertain at this time. This will depend, in part, how strong Hanna gets, since Hanna will be interacting with this trough. Ike could turn sooner than the models predict, affecting just the Bahamas, or later than predicted, taking it through South Florida, the Florida Keys, or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. The models will have a clearer picture of things by Friday, when Hanna will make its intentions known. I don’t have a guess at this point which way Ike will go.
Hanna is expected to become a hurricane between Thursday and Friday.
The Market Bugle has posted about Hurricane Gustav indicating we were very lucky the damage to the oil rigs wasn’t worse. Cuba had a lot to do with it. Gustav lost considerable power when it sliced across the island.
I came across the following map that shows just how important the Gulf and Louisiana are to meeting our natural gas needs in the U.S.:
The National Hurricane Center has just upgraded TS Hanna to a Hurricane now that maximum sustained winds have reached 75 mph. See Track which looks aimed at the Georgia South Carolina border.
Click on image to enlarge
The Oil Drum reports that LOOP is directly in the path of Gustav
Hurricane Gustav is expected to make landfall at LA just south and east of NOLA as a Category 2 hurricane. At 9a EDT, NHC says that pressure in 957Mb. 6Z (5:00 EDT) models have damage forecasts that vary a bit from six hours ago. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, and Port Fourchon, which has historically been a land base for offshore oil support services in the Gulf, was directly in the path of Gustav and is expected to be damaged. …a good bit of oil and natural gas is also expected to be taken offline: some for weeks, some for much longer, according to Methaz’ models.
Click image to enlarge.
AccuWeather reports
The eye of Gustav has moved over Terrebonne Parish, southwest of New Orleans. Despite weakening to Category 2 strength, winds are still near 110 mph and the storm will cause widespread damage along the Gulf Coast and farther inland.
Winds from Hurricane Gustav push the waters of Lake Pontchartrain onto the sea wall in New Orleans, Monday, Sept. 1, 2008. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)
Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog writes that Gustav is strengthening; pressure has fallen and higher winds will follow.
Gustav’s storm surge is not likely to breach the New Orleans levees–if they perform as designed
The latest computer generated storm surge map shows that highest surge will be along the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. Storm surge levels of this magnitude are characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The levee system of New Orleans is designed to withstand a Category 3 storm surge. If Gustav intensifies more than the NHC forecast is calling for, there is a significant threat of multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. However, the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted their landfall points a bit further west, reducing the odds of a Category 4 storm surge in New Orleans. My best guess is that New Orleans will suffer a Category 2 or 3-level storm surge. The levees will hold with that level of storm surge, if they perform as designed.
Here’s a computer generated map of potential storm surge:
Click image to enlarge
UPDATE: Gustav is now a Category Four Hurricane with max sustained winds of 145 mph!
Click on image to enlarge
Hurricane Gustav’s max sustained winds are now at 125 mph and gusts to 155! When winds reach 111-130 mph, that’s a category three. The storm track has Gustav heading for the western edge of Cuba, then into the Gulf, where the track is indicating landfall near the Texas Louisiana border.
As for TS Hanna, it is expected tobecome a hurricane in the next 36 to 48 hours.
On the three year anniversary of Katrina hitting New Orleans, the danger is back. Gustav is now officially a hurricane and according to Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog, right now it looks like it will be about 70% as large as Katrina and a category three as it approaches. He’s suggesting, you get out. Don’t wait longer than Saturday morning. Take the labor day weekend away from NOLA. AccuWeather says,
Gustav could reach Category 3 strength as it tracks over the Cayman Islands Saturday and could become even stronger as it churns through the Gulf of Mexico.
Gustav will be aiming directly at the offshore oil rigs. Recall those rigs were shut down for months after Katrina. You would expect higher oil prices if supply is reduced.
Behind Hurricane Gustav is tropicalstorm Hanna, which may get into the Gulf later next week and also become a hurricane, a one-two punch on the gulf coast.
