Entries Tagged as 'trading'

Key Points On Bitcoin Investment

Key Points On Bitcoin Investment

Key Points On Bitcoin Investment

If the idea of investing in cryptocurrency didn’t excite you before 2017, there’s a good chance it caught your attention last year. Bitcoin, in particular, had a sensational year, starting right around $1,000 in early January and skyrocketing to nearly $20,000 toward the end of the year. It would be easy to look at the cryptocurrency market and groan at the idea of having missed the train; then again, plenty of people are even now looking to hop aboard in the hopes that these bizarre digital currency alternatives just keep climbing.

I can’t tell you whether or not that’s a good idea. Frankly, no one can. Bitcoin and its fellow digital currencies are operating in uncharted territory, and while people can draw comparisons to the currency trade or to other valuable commodities, there’s not really any exact parallel that informs us as to where bitcoin will go from here. What I can do, however, is lay out some of the key points that should go into any decision or analysis of this kind of investment.

The 2017 Surge Is Over

The 2017 surge in bitcoin was quite something to behold, even if you aren’t really interested in investment patterns, cryptocurrency, or finance. It just isn’t the sort of thing that happens very often, and those who played it correctly were surely able to make a lot of money. However, it’s important not to get caught up now in what happened a few months ago. In late January bitcoin slipped below $11,000 with all major cryptocurrencies feeling the pressure. While it may yet start climbing again as it did before, this proves beyond doubt that bitcoin is volatile if nothing else.

The Spectrum Of Predictions Is Wide

Without touching on any specific advice from high profile people in the cryptocurrency and financial investment worlds, it’s important to point out that the spectrum of predictions for 2018 and beyond has been wide. Some would have you believe bitcoin is about to crash to the point that it’s essentially worthless; others see 2017 as nothing but a tease for far greater climbs to come. Seeking advice on this sort of thing is important, but be careful not to buy into the most outlandish predictions you see in either direction just yet, because there is bound to be a credible expert making the exact opposite prediction.

The Wallet You Choose Is Important

For those who haven’t bought bitcoin before, the idea of a wallet might seem like a secondary concern. In fact, it’s an extremely important aspect of the process. Bitcoin wallets store the digital keys you use to access your store of bitcoin online (because there’s no such thing as actually possessing physical bitcoins). It helps to think of them as bank accounts or investment portfolios full of cryptocurrency. These wallets come in five forms, and analyzing those forms (desktop, mobile, web, hardware, and paper) is as important as analyzing when to buy and sell. The different types of wallets offer different security perks, different levels of convenience and ease of use, and in some cases different fees for transactions.

Regulatory News Matters

People who are looking into investments like to research the different things that might influence what happens to those investments. It’s the only appropriate way to approach things, but it’s particularly tricky where bitcoin is concerned. Because cryptocurrency is new and to some degree experimental – not to mention fully digital and fully decentralized – it would almost seem to be free from influence. What we’re learning more and more, however, is that regulatory news matters. Bitcoin is for the most part not regulated around the world, but when news breaks of a major economy (such as Japan, recently) trying to restrict bitcoin in any way, prices can drop. It’s just something to keep in mind.

Bitcoin Has No Comparison

People seem to be very eager to compare bitcoin to other lucrative commodities from the past – most typically oil and gold. However, comparisons like these tend to be simplistic and ignore the reality that bitcoin is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. As The Telegraph put it bluntly, bitcoin is not the new gold despite its “glittering” run to close out 2017. Oil has a practical use, and gold is a tangible resource that has literally been used to back currency. Bitcoin, by contrast, is entirely made up, with its value backed by little more than its own potential. It’s a brand new concept, and one without a comparison – for better or worse.

We Have Seen This Before

We Have Seen This Before

We Have Seen This Before

We Have Seen This Before! The Fuse on the Subprime 2.0 Debt Bomb is About to Ignite, says Graham Summers, Chief Market Strategist Phoenix Capital Research:

The Subprime 2.0 story is now gaining traction in the financial media.

By way of brief review, here is the template for Subprime 1.0 (the mortgage meltdown).

1)   Banks, hungry for profits, began issuing mortgages to sub-prime borrowers (people who couldn’t possibly pay the loans back).

2)   Housing prices and sales began to fall.

3)   Subprime borrowers began defaulting on their mortgage.

4)   Subprime mortgage lenders began to collapse.

5)   A crisis unfolds as the issue spreads throughout the banks.

Subprime 2.0 is following the exact same pattern. Just replace the words “housing” with “automobiles” and “mortgages” with “auto-loans.” As the Wall Street Journal  notes…

We Have Seen This Before! Banks Pull Back on Car Loans as Used-Auto Prices Plummet

Car loans have been among the fastest growing consumer lending categories since the last recession. Banks and other lenders began increasing originations about seven years ago in search of more revenue as the mortgage market slumped.

As competition intensified, lenders loosened underwriting standards by courting borrowers with lower credit scores and extending repayment periods on loans. Small nonbank lenders also jumped in, relying on the bond market as an outlet to sell their loans.

But increasing losses have sapped some banks’ enthusiasm. Annualized net losses on securitized subprime auto loans increased to more than 10% late last year, the highest level since February 2009, according to Fitch Ratings. The figure slipped back to 9% in March, but that was the highest loss reading for that month since at least 2001.

Source: WSJ

In terms of the above template Subprime Template, we’re currently at #3 and on our way to #4.

All we need now is some auto-lenders to start blowing up, and the fuse on the Subprime 2.0 Debt Bomb will have been lit.

Keep an eye on Ally Financial (ALLY) and Capital One (COF). Both have large auto-loan exposure.

When Subprime 2.0 ignites the markets will move into crisis mode.


What does the new frontier of negative interest rates in the global arena mean for investors?

What does the new frontier of negative interest rates in the global arena mean for investors?

What does the new frontier of negative interest rates in the global arena mean for investors?

 

Cindy Yeap / The Edge Malaysia discusses “What does the new frontier of negative interest rates in the global arena mean for investors?”

“For RHB Research Institute executive chairman and chief economist Lim Chee Sing, NIRP “can only be seen as a temporary expedient to hold up financial markets”, albeit one that has little room to push for more economic growth in this relatively mature stage of the growth cycle.

“That means rising investment premiums and heightened market volatility will likely be the order of the day in the days ahead. Portfolio investors may have no choice but to build some degree of defensiveness into their portfolios to balance out the risks. This implies rising appetite for high-yield stocks,” Lim says.

“Even dividend stocks have caveats in the days ahead, largely due to their rich valuations vis-à-vis tougher conditions to grow at the same rate as before. For example, sin stocks might have to contend with higher taxes; the fees for telecommunications spectrum refarming have yet to be revealed; and consumer stocks have to contend with the possibility of a further tightening of consumer spending. Then, there is the higher labour cost.

“The focus should be on stocks with an improved business model, reasonable earnings visibility, strong cash flow, a dividend policy and, thus, sustainable dividend payments. Of course, one cannot ignore valuations but rich valuation stocks are still susceptible to a selldown should the global economy take a turn for the worse,” Lim adds.

“Gerald Ambrose, CEO of Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd, too, noted expensive valuations after a good run in recent years.

“We are keeping a close eye on notable high-yield companies, like the cellular phone companies, the brewers, tobacco companies and the REITs (real estate investment trusts). We’re currently about halfway though the 4Q2015 results season and to be honest, a lot of the better-managed companies have been able to find efficiencies to enable dividend payout to remain high. However, after outperforming for over a year, a lot of the high dividend yield companies are hardly cheap,” he says.”

BOTTOM LINE: Focus your strategy on yield and gold. Gold is an alternative when interest rates are negative adjusted for taxes and inflation.

Mover Mike Hit 2,000,000

After an incredible June, Mover Mike hit 2,000,000 page views. I have been blogging since 2004 and it is nice to see that more people are finding this blog. Sometimes, I have considered quitting, thinking why bother, no one reads me. However, conservative fiscally, Libertarian socially, this blog joins many others who don’t like the path the U.S. is on.

No longer can we discuss things rationally and heatedly.  Now it seems the play book says to ignore the message, savage the messenger. We are seeing that currently with Trump and we read that Hillary hasn’t answered the press questions in two weeks. AND…more and more people are considering leaving the country.

Mexico”sends” their unemployed to the U.S.. How long will 93,000,000 unemployed and under employed wait to move south? How long will the drought stricken  in the south west wait to move? What happens when the U.S. becomes like Greece and can’t feed the 43,000,000 on EBT?

Stay tuned, dear reader. I hope to cover it and provide some answers. Thanks for reading Mover Mike

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets

Emerging markets

Wikipedia defines emerging markets as “The four largest emerging and developing economies by either nominal or PPP-adjusted GDP are the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The next five largest markets are South Korea, Mexico,Indonesia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia...”

Martin Armstrong warns, “The emerging markets have issued debt in dollars which is a currency they cannot print and do not control. This hard-currency debt has tripled in the last decade and is split between $3.1 trillion in bank loans and $2.6 trillion in bonds. This will ripple through the banks causing massive new losses just as the Cyprus banks held Greek debt. This time, it will be the debt of all emerging markets. We are looking at a drastic scale of the biggest cross-border lending sprees of the past two centuries.

“A large portion of this emerging market debt was taken out at real interest rates of 1% on the implicit assumption that the Fed would continue to flood the world with liquidity for years to come. This has made the emerging markets vast borrowers dollars so in a trading position they are “short dollars”. This is the greatest short-position on a currency on the boards and when the dollar RISES, they will face the margin call from Hell itself. This will set off another banking crisis for bankers always buy the high and sell the low. They have NEVER learned even once from any economic crisis.”

Read more at Coming Emerging Market Debt Meltdown

 

Crude Oil Slides to Multi Year Lows and What to Expect

Looking back to 2007 (seven years ago) we have seen the price of crude oil perform incredible price swings. No matter the time frame in which we observe price when an extreme price spike takes place due to news/event, statistics show that half if not all the event driven price spike will eventually be negated in the future.

The perfect example of this is the rubber band affect. If you pull an elastic band in one direction, eventually when it breaks or it’s released, the band will retrace back to the norm and then go in the opposite direction. You can see this on the chart from 2008 high of nearly $150 to the 2009 low of $40. Price then lost is momentum and has been somewhat range bound from 2011 – 2014 right in the middle at $95 per barrel.

Observing the price chart of oil below there are many technical indicators and patterns at play. The first important pattern to identify is the series of higher lows shown with the green trend line sloping upwards.

A rising trend line that has multiple pivot lows (bounces up the trend line) the price of oil creates what I call a perfect storm for waterfall type selloff. This is exactly what we have seen over the past 3 months.

Each time one of the pivot lows are breached, the stop loss orders are triggered for investors. This causes a flood of sell orders forcing price lower to fall below the next pivot low etc… This may look and sound easy to trade, but keep in mind this is a monthly chart, and short term traders are not trading this long term time frame. Only investors would be focusing on a move that would take months to a year to unfold.

The second key indicator to look at is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This level typically acts as a support level for a small bounce usually. Because the 61.8% level is also in alignment with a previous consolidation, and a pivot low, both which have been highlighted on the chart, I suspect a bounce around the $65 level should take place.

The final potential bottom could take place near the 2009 low. It is a long way away but anything is possible and what we think is most unlikely to happen is exactly what the market does sometimes.

crudeoil

 

Crude Oil Conclusion:

In short, I think what crude oil is doing is healthy and needed for several reasons. If I let my bias/option shine through, I feel the big oil and gas companies have been taking advantage of us with their ridiculously high gas prices over the last seven years.

The multi-billion dollar, cash rich corporations need a little wakeup call. And the hair cut in their share price should be great for investors. This allows them to build or re-enter new positions at a better price with a higher dividend yield.

I will be watching the hourly and daily charts for a bottoming/bounce formation in the next week. But any bounce could be short lived as sellers appear to be aggressive still.

Receive my personal trade alerts via email and SMS text alerts at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com with a 50% Black Friday Offer Today

Chris Vermeulen

Sincerely,

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. – Partnership Program

The Big, Bold and Ugly

Since July of 2014 the big cap stocks have continued to make new highs as investors dump more and more money into the stock market. Overall bullishness on the stock market is now at extremely high levels which typically happen before a major stock market correction and sometimes start a full blown bear market.

While the average investor continues to become more and more bullish, the market breadth/health has been rapidly deteriorating. Unless you are market savvy you would not know how weak the market actually is and this always leads to strong losses and drawdowns for the uninformed investor.

What we know and most do not about this rising market, is that the big cap stocks in the SP500 index appear to be holding the overall market up and masking the weakness. So as investors become more bullish at these lofty levels putting more money into generic funds that push the SP500 higher, we see strong selling and unwinding of the more leveraged position like small cap stocks.

Over the past couple years the SP500 has formed a series of bullish corrections and running corrections. But the current formation is that of a bearish mega phone pattern and these typically point to lower prices.

SP500 BIG CAP STOCKS:

spy1

 

THE BOLD STOCKS:

I have always liked to follow the NYSE index because its a basket of 1900 stocks with 1500 of them being U.S companies. Its breadth/strength makes it a much better indicator of the market performance than the more narrow indexes with less stocks.

While this index remains in a bull market, it only looks as though it’s a few months away from a possible reversal and confirmation of a new bear market.

nyse

 

THE UGLY:

If you have ever read Stan Weinstein’s book then you know he followed GM share price closely. He believed that what GM did, the stock market would follow, to some extent. GM was/is an early leader of the US economy and stock prices in general.

The chart below paints a clear picture of the Stage 1 Accumulation in 2011- 2012, and also of the Stage 3 Distribution phase in 2013 – 2014. GM shares have traded down literally from the first week of the year and have now broken below critical support. Things could get interesting…

GM1

 

MY TRADING CONCLUSION:

In short, I remain bullish on the stock market with both my short term and investing outlook but I am very cautious and have closed out several large positions recently. Cash is king and I plan to protect, rather than invest my nest egg when risk is higher than normal.

Short term trading where trades only last 3-10 days is the way to go at this stage of the game. Some recent winning ETF trades with my ETF newsletter www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com have been in SCO, a quick bounce trade in UCO, REM, and our current trade as of last week EEM.

The majority of my investment capital is traded with my automated trading system. It trades the S&P500 index directly in my brokerage account catching these 3-10 day swings in the market saving me time while reducing my emotional attachment to the market.

Chris Vermeulen

Sincerely,

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. – Partnership Program

Alibaba VS. Amazon – Which One You Should Buy

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Alibaba VS. Amazon – Which One You Should Buy

Adam Hewison – MarketClub

Hello traders and MarketClub members everywhere! Today, I will be looking at Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), who just announced their earnings and future growth prospects and Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), who just made new highs yesterday, since going public in its recent IPO offering. I will also be delving into Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and analyzing if the love affair is over.


Flight To Quality

Today’s DJIA is down over 300 points. Dropping oil prices, slowing economies around the world, stock markets falling, and Ebola have caused investors to flee to the safety of treasuries. This is what a panic looks like and is not sustainable, IMO.

Flight to quality - daily

Flight to quality – daily

Flight to quality - weekly

Flight to quality – weekly


Ominous Looking Chart

Ominous DAX

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