Mogi Doughnut Hypothesis
According to the LA Times, scientists studying the recent quakes from Mexicali north since Easter think the 7.2 quake was preceded by a number of micro quakes that built up pressure which was then relieved in the Baja and border area. The pressure was then transmitted northward to the Borrego Springs area.
Experts see strong evidence that there is more pressure now on the San Jacinto and nearby Elsinore fault networks to the east of Los Angeles. The Elsinore fault zone is connected to the Whittier fault, which runs through densely populated sections of the L.A. area, including the San Gabriel Valley. As a result, there’s a concern that a quake on the Whittier fault might be more likely.
The fact that a “big” one hasn’t happened on the San Jacinto, nearby Elsinore and San Andreas fault lines make some scientists think of the Mogi doughnut hypothesis:
(Japanese seismologist Kiyoo) Mogi made the important observation 1n 1969 that “In the period of several to twenty years just before a great event, the area where the great event occurs is abnormally calm and its surrounding wide areas becomes markedly active (the foreshock activity in the broad sense).
There hasn’t been a great earthquake on the San Andreas since 1857. So it appears perfectly logical to watch for the Mogi doughnut hypothesis to come into play.
Tags: San Andreas Mogi doughnut hypothesis San Jacinto Elsinore
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[…] July of 2010,I wrote about the Mogi Doughnut Hypothesis in which (Japanese seismologist Kiyoo) Mogi made the important observation 1n 1969 that “In the […]