Mover Mike

A tractor's light is covered with volcanic ash in Futaleufu, near the Chaiten volcano, located some 1,450 km (900 miles) south of Santiago, May 8, 2008. REUTERS/Jorge Cortizo

Luis Lara, a scientist with the government's geology and mining agency, said the column, which has soared 7.5 miles (12 km) into the air, was at a critical stage.

An abrupt descent would blanket vast areas with deadly hot gas, ash and molten rock, he said.

The eruption of ash could last for months

Physics Today reports

The city of Chengdu has a population of 2 million, with another 9 million in the surrounding urban area, is about 90 km southeast of the epicenter. Many western companies such as IBM, Symantec, Microsoft, Intel, Fujitsu, NEC, Motorola, and Nokia have factories and offices in the region due to Chengdu's High-Tech Industrial Development Zone. None of these companies are reporting major damage to their staff or facilities.

The magnitude-7.9 earthquake that struck near Chengdu city is the largest earthquake to hit China since 1976.

At the end of April, rice rationing was in the news, Sam's Club was limiting the purchase of rice to four bags at a time. Costco put on limits at some stores.

The Blue Square and Supersol supermarket chains have begun limiting purchases of rice, Israeli newspapers said yesterday. Supersol is restricting each customer to "three bags per type of grain product," the Jerusalem Post reported.

Relentless demand from developing countries and poor crop yields have pushed rice prices up 70 percent so far this year, raising concerns of severe shortages of the staple food consumed by almost half the world's population.

Now add one more concern to the already short supply: the tropical Cyclone Nargis that struck Burma on Friday night and Saturday morning.

Myanmar TV reported last night: "The confirmed number is 3934 dead, 41 injured and 2879 missing within the Rangoon and Irrawaddy divisions."

It also said: "According to the information that we have as of May 5, there could be tens of thousands dead in Bogolay township and thousands more dead in Labutta township."

The storm which arrived with a storm surge between 10 and 12 feet made a direct hit on the Irrawaddy delta, Burma’s main rice producing region. While it is far too early to assess crop losses, they are likely to be substantial and generate yet more upward price pressure on the available supply rice.

Cyclone Nargis Rice Burma

On March 1st I posted that the town that suffered from the 6.0 Nevada earthquake, Wells, NV, needed help, but didn't qualify for FEMA aid. Damage to private property didn't reach the agency's required limits.

The Salt Lake Tribune informs us that "residents are raising money to rebuild homes and repair the town."

A rally begins there at 10 a.m. Saturday. A town-wide barbecue begins at noon. Other festivities include hot air balloon rides and an auction of donated goods.

The town is trying to raise $500,000 in private money to assist the town government, the local school district and residents who suffered losses in the 6.0 earthquake

Anyone wishing to donate should mail payments to Nevada State Bank, P.O. Box 308, Wells, NV 89835. Make checks payable to: Wells Nevada Earthquake Fund.

Just checking up on the Georgia Drought. Has it gotten any better? The December 11, 2007, report from the National Weather Service shows no improvement, in fact a worsening from the previous week and from three months ago!

74.3% of the area of Georgia is considered in drought from severe to exceptional with almost half of all land area considered exceptionally dry. The NWS sees little hope soon

90 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY...NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

Georgia Drought Mover Mike

Have you ever seen anything like this?

Hat Tip Clipmarks (Credit: Iowa Environmental Mesonet Skycam.)

"These waves were created by a cluster of thunderstorms approaching Des Moines from the west," he explains. "At the time, a layer of cold, stable air was sitting on top of Des Moines. The approaching storms disturbed this air, creating a ripple akin to what we see when we toss a stone into a pond."

Undular bores are a type of "gravity wave"-so called because gravity acts as the restoring force essential to wave motion. Analogy: "We're all familiar with gravity waves caused by boats in water," points out Coleman. "When a boat goes tearing across a lake, water in front of the boat is pushed upward. Gravity pulls the water back down again and this sets up a wave."

Playing the role of boat, the thunderstorms tearing across Iowa on Oct. 3rd spawned a train of four waves. "They're beautifully shown in this NEXRAD radar image."

Cool!

Undular bore waves Iowa Mover Mike

Latest Typhoon Krosa storm track:

Typhoon Krosa crashed into the Chinese coast with 78 mph winds, forcing the evacuation of 1.4 million people.

The typhoon made landfall near the borders of densely populated Zhejiang and Fujian provinces in southeast China.

Typhoon Krosa has lashed Taiwan with heavy rain and high winds. (AFP: Sam Yeh)

In Shanghai, where the Special Olympics is taking place, the city government canceled vacations for flood-control workers and was drafting plans to drain competition sites, the agency said.

Typhoon Krosa Mover Mike

Typhoon Krosa pounded northern Taiwan with powerful winds and torrential rains, injuring at least three people, forcing shops and offices to close and disrupting air and road travel.

With a radius of 300 kilometres, Krosa has winds gusting up to 184 kilometres per hour ((115 mph with gusts up to 140 mph).

Ahead of the storm on the Chinese mainland,

...two provinces have evacuated more than 730,000 people ahead of the buffeting of the powerful typhoon.

It amazes me that China can evacuate so many people. In the last typhoon, they evacuated over 2 Million. I am also in awe of the wind speed in these freaks of nature. Imagine sustained winds of 115 mph!

Typhoon Krosa Mover Mike

Update:

The Daily Green reports:

The Category 4 hurricane’s maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 150 mph in the past few hours.

The storm is headed toward the Philippines, Taiwan and China and it could hit Taiwan’s capital, Taipei, and China’s financial center, Shanghai, in the coming days, based on the predictions of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Typhoon Krosa Mover Mike

Update:

Super Typhoon Krosa remains a large and powerful storm as it continues to approach the island of Taiwan early Friday morning EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and gusts to 185 mph. Krosa was centered near 21.0 north and 125.0 east, about 400 miles southwest of Naha, Okinawa, and was moving to the north-northwest at 7 mph. Krosa is expected to maintain its current strength over the next 12-24 hours then weaken slightly as it continues to interact with Taiwan.

The forecast track keeps the storm moving to the northwest over the next day or so, before turning northward near the coast of China. The storm could make a brief landfall in northeastern Taiwan sometime late Saturday evening or Saturday night. In addition to the powerful winds, Krosa will be capable of causing significant flooding in Taiwan and eastern China due to its slow forward movement.

The Typhoon that blasted Vietnam is now headed toward Taiwan.

Weathermen in Taiwan on Thursday urged ships and residents to take precautions against typhoon “Ineng” (international codename: Krosa) which is gaining momentum and heading towards the island

Typhoon Ineng Krosa

NOAA has a new website, a Tsunami warning site. If you hear or read of a big earthquake go to:

You can see a closeup view of the quake, travel times of the tsunami if one were generated. For example the latest quake took place off the west coast of South Island, New Zealand. A tsunami would hit the Pacific Northwest coast 17 hours later. You can also see if there are any alerts for the west coast.

NOAA Tsunami Warning Mover Mike

Hurricane Lorenzo may make landfall as a category 2. Currently maximum sustained winds are 80 mph.

Along the Mexican Coast, hurricane warnigs are in effect from Cabo Rojo to Palma Sola. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Palma Sola to Veracruz, and a tropical storm watch is in effect from La Cruz to Cabo Rojo.

Expect 15 inches of rain on the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Lorenzo Mexico Mover Mike

An area of low pressure that lingered along the Florida coast for several days finally entered the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning — prompting local officials to more readily monitor weather reports.

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog writes:

Since landfall is expected Saturday between the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Louisiana, 93L probably does not have time to become fully tropical. If 93L makes landfall Saturday, it should not have winds stronger than about 55 mph. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all keep 93L's winds below 55 mph. If the storm spends an extra day over water and makes it to Texas, as the ECMWF model predicts, 93L could become fully tropical and make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds. However, there is plenty of dry air in the environment, and I don't think the storm will be able to intensify to a strong tropical storm.

93L Tropical Storm Jerry Mover Mike

Update:

From Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Storms that start off as large, non-tropical systems like 93L typically take several days to organize and become fully tropical, and 93L will not have time to become anything worse than a minimal tropical storm. The storm is capable of dumping some heavy rains along its path--radar estimated precipitation from the Tallahassee radar (Figure 1) were as high as three inches. As 93L becomes more tropical in nature, it will be able to generate higher rain amounts. But, with the storm expected to move inland by Saturday afternoon, it does not appear 93L has time to generate the kind of tropical rains that would make it a serious flood threat.

Super Typhoon Wipha broke records just set on Ishigaki Island.

Super Typhoon Wipha roared across Okinawa Prefecture Tuesday, packing record winds of 70 meters per second (156.6 miles per hour), eclipsing Nari’s record breaking bluster of 62.8 m/s (140.5 mph) last week.

[...]

Nari dumped more than 120mm (6”) of rain, including 45mm (1.8”) in a single hour.
Super Typhoon Wipha produced even more rainfall, 300mm (11.8”) on Ishigaki Island, and 250mm (9.8”) on Miyakojima. Weather observers issued flood warnings, and government agencies added landslide warnings for the islands.

A child walks in water-soaked street at a residential community in Rui'an city, east China's Zhejiang Province, Aug. 19, 2007. Typhoon Wipha packing winds of 45 meters per second landed east China's Zhejiang Province early Wednesday and moved northwestward. (Xinhua/Huang Shengang)

Almost 2 million people were evacuated before Wipha struck, the largest mass evacuation in the history of the province.

Typhoon Wipha China Mover Mike

Update:

In 2006, every time it looked like Cabo San Lucas was going to take a direct hit from a hurricane, at the last moment the hurricane veered off and Cabo was unscathed. This year the resort area isn't so lucky. In early September Henriette slammed Cabo. Now Hurricane Ivo last night was bearing straight for Cabo, but tonight it appears to be going in farther north:

Residents of the Mexico's Baja peninsula and surrounding areas are advised to stay tuned to hurricane advisories as this tropical storm was upgraded to hurricane yesterday. With a projected path towards the north-northwest, this storm is going to be tough to predict. While ocean waters are warm enough to sustain the storm, relatively stable air in the north may make this storm die down before it gathers strength. Landfall could occur on Sunday or Monday.

Hurricane Ivo Baja Mover MikeUpdate:

The China Post reports:

Government offices, schools, and financial institutions in several counties and cities in northern Taiwan, including the capital Taipei, will be closed today due to the arrival of Typhoon Wipha.

Packing winds of 140 miles per hour, the typhoon will cut through the northern parts of the island before moving into the Taiwan Strait on way to southeastern China.

Wipha is the 13th Category 4 or Category 5 storms recorded this year around the world.

Typhoon Wipha Taiwan Mover Mike

Update:

About 200,000 people living in exposed areas in Shanghai, a city of 14 million people, would be moved to temporary shelters before evening when Typhoon Wipha is expected to make landfall after swiping the island of Taiwan with maximum sustained winds of up to 250km/h (156 mph).

Japan Update reports:

Packing the strongest winds ever recorded, Typhoon Nari pounded Kumejima late Friday night and early Saturday before moving across Okinawa’s main island wreaking even more havoc. Kumejima Town registered wind speeds of 52.4 meters per second (118mph) beginning at 11 p.m., then buffeted the island with record breaking speeds of 62.8m/s (140mph) about 1:30 a.m.

[...]

Some 400 tourists were stranded...after the airport was closed. A tourist visiting from Nago was distraught over the situation. “I tried to make a new reservation but they say it will be three days before I can get an airplane. I can’t wait three days,” he said, “because I am supposed to be back today.”

Another tourist complained “I’ve never had this kind of problem before. The typhoon was none of my business.”

See track here

Typhoon Nari Okinawa Mover Mike

Tropical storm Humberto strengthened just before making landfall to Hurricane Humberto with max sustained winds of 85 mph.

The hurry-up hurricane brought 16 inches of rain to the Bolivar Peninsula in Galveston County just before landfall about 5 miles east of High Island, the National Weather Service reported.

[...]

In Beaumont at 5 a.m., water was knee-deep in some streets in Old Town, road underpasses were flooded and trees and power lines were reported down throughout the city.

[...]

...some of whose residents still are recovering from Hurricane Rita damage.

Ron Franscell, resident of Beaumont and author of FALL: The Rape and Murder of Innocence in a Small Town, wrote to me that:

The lingering effects of Rita are physical, economic and mental. Just this week we reported a 100-person layoff at a local hospital, largely attributed to a decline in insured patients since Rita (2005.) Many common troubles in the marketplace are being attributed to Rita, even when there's little real reason to think the hurricane caused the problems.

Still, we have a troublesome number of people living in FEMA trailers ... to the point where the city fathers are uncomfortable with the length of time these people have postponed repairs to their regular homes. One still sees pockets of unrepaired Rita damage, but most neighborhoods and business districts have repaired fully.

Let's pray that Humberto was gentle with Beaumont.

Hurricane Humberto Beaumont, Texas Hurricane

FLASH: 12:45pm CDT Update:Tropical Depression Nine has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Humberto with 45 mph winds.

Galveston seems to be the target of the latest gulf storm. TD nine is expected to make landfall The depression is expected to become a Tropical Storm before making landfall tonight. Currently max sustained winds are 35 mph.

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog writes:

Since this system is very slow moving, it has the potential to drop rain amounts in excess of ten inches along the Texas and Louisiana coasts--including the Houston metropolitan area--over the next two days. These rains may cause serious widespread flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches have already occurred along the coast, from Freeport to the Louisiana border.

Dr. Masters also notes that

A strong tropical wave near 12.5N 44W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at 10 mph. This system (91L) may develop into a tropical depression today, and has the potential to become a large and dangerous major hurricane next week.

Stay tuned this is general the peak time of year for hurricanes.

Tropical Depression Nine Hurricane Tropical Storm Humberto

Update:

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog:

Since Humberto is slow moving, it has the potential to drop rain amounts in excess of ten inches along the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next two days. It now appears that the Houston area will escape the worst of these rains, which will be concentrated more towards the Texas/Louisiana border region. These rains may cause widespread destructive flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches have already occurred along the coast, from Freeport to just beyond the Louisiana border, as estimated by radar. Freeport may have had as much a five inches already.

The Beaumont Enterprise reports

Tropical Storm Humberto gathered steam as he rumbled toward the Southeast Texas coast late Wednesday night, and forecasters expect near-hurricane force winds when he makes landfall in the wee hours Thursday morning.

The news cycle is so short. One day Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Felix and Henriette are the items that some wait breathlessly for updates and then those natural disasters disappear from the headlines. The world moves on. So before we move on to Gabrielle forming in the Atlantic, let's pause.

Hurricane Felix

Costa Maya, the up-and-coming cruise port on the Yucatán Peninsula near the border of Belize, took a beating (from Dean) and is expected to be closed for at least six months.

Miskito of impoverished Nicaraguan communities were hit hard by Felix. We have early warning systems in place. They do not.

"There are 38 dead," national disaster authority chief Ramon Arnesto Soza told local radio, "adding that the number was expected to rise. Some 120 people who live in the region inhabited by Miskitos Indians are missing," he said.

This is the first time in recorded history that two Category 5 storms made landfall in a single season.

Hurricane Henriette

...the heavy rain and wind that it is bringing is ruining large corn and tomato crops. Although Henriette is a weak storm with winds speeds up to 75mph, it still managed to kill seven people while it was on route to the Pacific coast.

The blog Brenda and Roy Going to Mexico hast a video they shot out their front door. It gives us a real good idea of what it's like in a hurricane. The sound is incredible!

Let's not forget that Typhoon Fitow is right now ripping up Japan as a category 1.

Bank protection and a road guardrail along the Gokangawa river lie collapsed in Annaka, Gunma Prefecture, on Thursday morning. (YASUHIKO NYUI/ THE ASAHI SHIMBUN)

Dave reports Fitow is

Hitting the city harder than expected.

Bullet trains are all down, most train service now cancelled (not only high speed). Some homes damaged, news reporting updates of trouble throughout the city at this point.

Strongest part of the storm yet to hit.

As for Gabrielle, AccuWeather writes

By Friday, the low is expected to reach tropical storm strength, likely to be named Gabrielle. The Hurricane Center meteorologists are forecasting the storm will make landfall on the Carolina coastline Sunday morning as a Category 1 or perhaps a Category 2 hurricane.

For me, it is endlessly fascinating to see the extremes of nature. I strongly regret the loss of life and assets that these storms bring.

Hurricane Dean Hurricane Felix Hurricane Henriette Hurricane Gabrielle Typhoon Fitow