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Mover Mike

Mike is a retired stock broker, and now supports his wife's furniture business. He is her warehouseman, deluxer, and marketing guru. In addition, he writes poetry and finds abundance, health and joy in the world around him while pondering life's little mysteries

Larry and Carol and Bernie
Larry Kudlow hasn't been concerned about inflation and economists like to exclude energy and food from the CPI and concentrate on the "core" rate of inflation. You and I, however, are aware that prices have been rising for some time and the government figures don't square with our life experiences. Today, in The Oregonian, is an article Mowing the bottom line . Carol Gross' Lawn & Garden Service operates "mowers, edgers, weed trimmers and blowers. All are gas-powered." Her company's gas bill last month came to $526, up from about $325 a year ago March.

Bernie Bravo, who with his wife owns Cascade Landscape & Irrigation Inc. said his gas costs have tripled, from $3,000 a month several years ago to $9,000 a month this year.

Carol and Bernie will try to pass along some or all of the increased cost to their landscaping customers, but are afraid of losing customers if they do. If Carol and Bernie and you and I can't pass along our rising costs, we will either have to borrow to maintain our consumption, dip into our savings savings, or cut back somewhere. Maybe we eat out less, stay at home for the vacation, switch from Meier & Frank to Burlington Coat Factory, or rent a movie instead of going to Regal Theaters or ask for a raise.

That's not what our governments do! They just spend more each year, year after year, and either tax us more or inflate, which is the hidden tax that Carol and Bernie and you and I are wrestling with.

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Posted by movermike on Wednesday April 20, 2005 at 10:33am
Joel (No Pundit Intended) (mail) (www):
While I agree with the direction you are going with this, I must disagree with your examples.

Energy and Food are consumables and are somewhat tied together, since rising energy costs impact food costs directly - being that a great deal of our food moves by truck.

Our high gas prices are not due to inflation. They are due to the grossly higher demand for fuel in developing nations, as well as our continuing rise in the US. While the US demand for fuel has risen about 20% in the past several years, it has nearly quadrupalled (double check my numbers, but you will get the idea) in China, as they reap the technological benefits of capitalism. Our fuel prices have been artificially low because of diplomacy with oil rich nations anyway. We paid a buck a gallon, when Europeans were paying 3 bucks a gallon. At the same time, the US cannot produce more gasoline from crude oil than we currently do - our refineries are at about 98% capacity. So the problem isn't even a shortage of oil - OPEC has actually offered to increase output to prove that to the market movers - but we are starting to look offshore for our refined products too and that costs a lot more than doing it ourselves.

I agree that both of these impact the bottom line and I understand the business problems that are incurred when the cost of DOING business is higher, but the cost of fuel is not a hidden tax by the government. It is self inflicted by our inability to not go on a vacation this year or reluctance to change HOW we do something to use less fuel. We're comfortable with how we do things and are not putting the proper pressure on our government to create change. Some change is evolutionary and other change is revolutionary - we have chosen the slower route.

Keep up the great blogging. I had to point out this issue, but I like what you are doing here.
4.21.2005 9:21pm
Mover Mike (mail):
I appreciate your response, Joel. The notion that the CPI reflects reality is debatable (with all the adjustments that are made and the use of rental numbers as opposed to cost of housing is one example). We are most impacted by those things that are excluded. Try going without food or heat. And perhaps, it is a poor example, since we tend to call rising prices "inflation", rather than increasing money supply by governments, which is really the definition of inflation. I do disagree that the rise in the price of oil is ALL based on demand. When our FED causes a 95% decline in the value of the USD in the last 35 years, you must grant me that some of the price increase is due to inflation.
4.21.2005 10:40pm
Mover Mike (mail):
Joel, one more thing. On March 3rd I wrote:

The study titled The Role of Gold in the unified GCC Currency By Eckart Woertz is available from the Gulf Research Center for $10 USD. Here is their abstract:

GCC countries are dollar dependent. Their currencies are pegged to the dollar, their main source of income (oil) is factored in dollars and the majority of their investments abroad are held in dollars. While after World War II, the US dollar was still backed by gold and current account surpluses, it has turned into an empty paper promise since the 1970s. That spells potential disaster for GCC countries and calls for a stronger diversification of their currency reserves. The paper critically discusses a potential monetary role of gold by analyzing the failures of the historical Gold Standard and the topical attempt of Malaysia to introduce an Islamic Gold Dinar. Finally, it proposes that apart from “second worst” paper currencies like the Euro, GCC countries should take a closer look at gold, as it has an impeccable track record of asset protection over centuries
4.21.2005 11:03pm