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Mover Mike

Mike is a retired stock broker, and now supports his wife's furniture business. He is her warehouseman, deluxer, and marketing guru. In addition, he writes poetry and finds abundance, health and joy in the world around him while pondering life's little mysteries

Gold/Oil Ratio at Extreme!
From Kitco, Gold/Oil Ratio Extremes 3 by Adam Hamilton, an excellent article analyzing the relationship between the price of Gold and the price of Oil (GOR)

Five times since 1975, the GOR has been below 10 since 1975. Each time the GOR went back to at least 15.2, it's average. Now for the sixth time we are below 10, currently at 6.6. With Oil at $65, a GOR of 15.2 puts gold at $988. If I were selling oil for USDs, I would take the USDs and buy Gold. If things work out for the sixth time, it would be like selling Oil for $130. It may be the best trade in the last 35 years!

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Posted by movermike on Sunday August 21, 2005 at 4:00pm
Federalist X (mail) (www):
Mike: correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't a dramatic decrease in price of oil achieve the same result w/out increasing gold's value at all? reason i ask this, one of our bloggers, sharpshanks, has been saying recently that over the next 18-24 months, oil will be pushed below $40/barrel due to major increases in investment and new refining capacity coming online. that would make the trade pretty conservative afterall wouldn't it?
8.25.2005 10:37pm
Mover Mike (mail):
The supply of oil has nothing to do with major increases in investment or new refining capacity. We have not found any major supplies of oil. IF...oil fell to $40, and the GOR returned to the average of 15X, Gold would be priced at approx. $600, up from $436 on Friday.
Mover Mike
8.28.2005 6:26pm