Beans in the Teens?
Lot's of talk the last few days about drought. Yesterday AccuWeather asked the question, Is America Facing Another Dust Bowl?
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Last week the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center issued their drought forecast for 2006 through May:
Why could a new Dust Bowl drought occur? The low-level jet stream-a fast-moving current of winds close to the Earth's surface-travels from east to west across the Atlantic, then typically curves northward as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, bringing moisture to the Great Plains. Abnormal sea-surface temperatures have caused this low-level jet stream to continue westward and to weaken, which is preventing much-needed moisture from reaching the agriculturally critical region. The shift in the jet stream is also allowing a southerly flow from Mexico to bring much drier air northward into the Plains.
Ok, that's the background. What does it mean?
The severe winter in Eastern Europe’s major grain regions have killed on average about 30% of the crop. Due to drought in the Ukraine and elsewhere, winter wheat planting was down by about 18%. Normally those losses would be made up in the US and Canada, but if forecasts are right from the NWS, our grain crops could suffer. According to London Irvine Report
The probability is for higher prices across the year ahead. Though wheat is an obvious candidate, grains have a tendency to move as a group and that includes Soybeans, corn and oats.(TFC Weekly Soybean chart)Beans in the Teens?
Is it too early to wonder about the ramifications of rapidly rising food prices and that effect on society?
Update:
Related Posts (on one page):
- Ash Wednesday
- Drought
- Beans in the Teens?
Posted by movermike on
Friday February 24, 2006 at 8:51am
We had seven or eight inches of rain, below normal, last year (2005)in Sangamon and Logan Counties, Illinois. But because the rains came just after corn planting, just after bean planting and at the time when beans were pollinating, bean yields were 85% of normal and corn yields were 70% of normal (it did not rain when the corn was pollinating, although it was humid and we fortunately had some mornings with heavy dews).
It is also important to remember that most hybrid corn and some bean seeds have been bred or modified for drought resistance. Thus the plant can handle more stress than 30 years ago.
However, we have not caught up very much this winter &some rainfall (two to five inches) would be very helpful.
IMHO, if food prices go up, it won't be directly related to the crops in the field, it will be more related to gouging by processors, wholesalers and retailers.
oly
Mover Mike