Ad tag:

Mover Mike

Mike is a retired stock broker, and now supports his wife's furniture business. He is her warehouseman, deluxer, and marketing guru. In addition, he writes poetry and finds abundance, health and joy in the world around him while pondering life's little mysteries

What's Going On With Commodities?
Every day I look at the commodity prices posted on Bloomberg:

S&P GSCI MOVERS
COMMODITYPRICECHG%CHG
LME LEAD FUTURE (USD/MT)3297.000117.0003.68
GASOLINE RBOB FUT (USd/gal.)203.9305.7902.92
LME ALUM HG FUTUR (USD/MT)2524.75036.7501.48
WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.)71.9700.8801.24
LME COPPER FUTURE (USD/MT)7379.00069.0000.94

I noticed that these are all industrial commodities used in a growing world economy. These statistics are for Monday the 27th, but the strength in these commodities has been going on since the beginning of last week.

Take Copper, on the 21st Sept. Copper closed at $3.135. Today it traded as high as $3.45 (+10%) and closed at $3.34 (+6.5%). Annualized that's 572% and 338%, respectively! The weekly and monthly charts have multiple attacks on $3.80 since the peak at $4.16 in May, 2006. If we break through $3.80, I could see $5.20.

Last week Forbes wrote

The global copper deficit widened in the first half of this year, largely on strong Chinese demand...

In the January to June period of this year, the copper market's deficit stood at 216,000 tonnes, up 192 pct from the 74,000 tonnes recorded in the same period a year ago.

Meanwhile, mine production rose 4.6 pct to 7.7 mln tonnes over the period, (while) Consumption grew 4.8 pct to 9.06 mln tonnes

This supply deficit is not ending any time soon.

My hunch is that there is a lot of cash sloshing around the world. People in the know see inflation coming down the pike and are fleeing fiat currencies, like the USD.

There is another possibility, a wider war in the mideast. Even French President Nicolas Sarkozy said, "a nuclear-armed Iran would be unacceptable and that major powers should continue their policy of incrementally increasing sanctions against Tehran while being open to talks if Iran suspended nuclear activities.

"This initiative is the only one that can enable us to escape an alternative that I say is catastrophic: the Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran," he said, adding that it was the worst crisis currently facing the world."

Ad tag:
Posted by movermike on Monday August 27, 2007 at 3:07pm

Post as: [Register] [Log In]

Account:
Password:
Remember info?