Mover Mike

Back in May of 2005, I posted about Pebble Bed Modular Reactors (PBMR) . I thought of that article when I read yesterday that "Developing countries like India and China continue to unveil new coal-fired plants—at the rate of one every seven to 10 days in the latter nation."

I read that South Africa is going ahead with its development of PBMRs

The South African government has set up a company, Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (Pty) Ltd, to develop new nuclear power technology and plans to spend some 1 trillion yen over the next 20 years to build 24 small installations...

From the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (Pty) Limited (PBMR)2007 Annual Report:

World energy requirements are escalating at an unprecedented rate. It has taken 2 000 years for the population of the world to grow from 250 million to six billion people. By the middle of this century, it will reach 10 billion. This rapid increase in world population, with a simultaneous increase in standard of living, especially in the developing world, will cause world energy requirements to triple over the next half century.

At this exponential increase in the rate of energy consumption – in a world that is relying on fossil fuels for 80% of its energy requirements – it is questionable whether economic oil and gas supplies will last beyond the latter part of this century. Price increases, security of supply concerns and related commercial risks will be the fruits of the burgeoning global population and create unforeseen challenges. Climate change and tertiary effects of greenhouse gases will challenge human ingenuity

Now here's the disturbing part: In May of 2005 Uranium was $20 a pound!

Today it is trading around $90, and the recent high was $135. Money Week in September, 2007 wrote

By 2050, scientists estimate the world will need about 900 more nuclear power plants to keep up with growing energy requirements.

As a result, the undeniable reality is that demand for uranium is outstripping supply. In 2005...

• Supply from mines was 102.5 million pounds
• Demand was 171 million pounds
• The gap was 68.5 million pounds.

In May of 2005,

Oil was trading at $50 per barrel (currently $92)
Natural Gas was trading at $6.20 (currently about $7)
and Gold was trading at $416 (currently $795)

Reuters UK wrote in September of 2007,

Record high coal prices and tight supply are piling the pressure on electricity generators already hit by soaring oil markets and high gas prices, industry players say.

Coal fuels about 40 pct of global power generation. Physical coal prices for delivery into Europe have risen by over 50 percent this year.

Unless, some technology like Genie, takes off, it is not hard to see that the future brings much higher energy prices. Commodities seem to be the place to be for the next half century.

Pebble Bed Modular Reactors (PBMR) India and China South Africa

nuclear power Uranium Mover Mike

Update: